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31/03/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 6 point and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 5 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

There's not a lot of conviction in the equity futures market, driving only modest moves. Investors are anxiously awaiting the market-moving February Personal Income and Spending report at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will include the PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge).

Treasuries are mixed ahead of the data release. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.16% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 102.46.

Energy complex futures also trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.7% to $74.92/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.4% to $2.10/mmbtu.

Other economic data today includes:

  • 9:45 ET: March Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 42.5; prior 43.6)

  • 10:00 ET: Final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 63.4; prior 63.4)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 196.05, +0.77, +0.4%): CEO Elon Musk plans to visit China, according to Reuters

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 13.86, +0.17, +1.2%): moving higher on MA regulator probing insiders' stock sales, according to Reuters

  • Ford Motor (F 12.34, +0.05, +0.4%): ups F-150 Lightning prices, according to Automotive News

  • Nikola Corporation (NLKA 1.3400, -0.06, -4.3%): prices offering of 29,910,715 shares of common stock at $1.12 per share

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.9% (+2.4% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5% (+2.4% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4% (+0.2% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.8% (+2.6% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +1.0% (+2.6% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8% (+3.3% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • China's March Manufacturing PMI 51.9 (expected 51.5; last 52.6) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.2 (expected 54.3; last 56.3)

  • Japan's February Retail Sales 6.6% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 5.0%), February Industrial Production 4.5% m/m (expected 2.7%; last -5.3%), February jobs/applications ratio 1.34 (expected 1.36; last 1.35), and February Unemployment Rate 2.6% (expected 2.4%; last 2.4%). February Construction Orders 22.3% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last -14.0%) and Housing Starts -0.3% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last 6.6%). March Tokyo CPI 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.4%) and Tokyo Core CPI 3.2% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.3%)

  • South Korea's February Retail Sales 5.3% m/m (last -1.1%). February Industrial Production -3.2% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 2.4%); -8.1% yr/yr (expected -8.3%; last -13.0%)

  • Hong Kong's February Retail Sales 31.3% yr/yr (last 7.0%)

  • Australia's February Private Sector Credit 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.4%) and Housing Credit 0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%)


  • In news:

  • China's Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs remained in expansionary territory for the third consecutive month with Non-Manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level since mid-2011.

  • China's vice finance minister said that fiscal policy adjustments need to be stepped up.

  • Japan will impose export restrictions on 23 types of chipmaking equipment starting in July.



  • Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the quarter after the release of a big batch of data. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4% (+3.8% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.5% (+4.3% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (+3.2% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +0.5% (+4.1% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3% (+4.7% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3% (+5.1% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's February Unemployment Rate 6.6% (expected 6.7%; last 6.6%). March CPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 6.9% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 8.5%). March Core CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.8%); 5.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.6%)

  • Germany's February Retail Sales -1.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.1%); -7.1% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.9%). February Import Price Index -2.4% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -1.2%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; last 6.6%). March Unemployment change 16,000 (expected 3,000; last 2,000) and March Unemployment Rate 5.6% (expected 5.5%; last 5.5%).

  • U.K.'s Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.3%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.2%). Q4 Business Investment -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 4.8%; last 0.1%); 10.8% yr/yr (expected 13.2%; last 8.0%). March Nationwide HPI -0.8% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.5%); -3.1% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -1.1%)

  • France's February Consumer Spending -0.8% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.7%). February PPI -0.9% m/m (last 2.5%). March CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last 1.0%); 5.6% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 6.3%)

  • Italy's January Industrial Sales -1.1% m/m (last 0.7%); 8.6% yr/yr (last 14.9%). March CPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 7.7% yr/yr (expected 8.2%; last 9.1%)

  • Spain's January Current Account surplus EUR3.27 bln (last surplus of EUR1.70 bln)

  • Swiss February Retail Sales 0.3% yr/yr (expected -1.0%; last -1.7%)


  • In news:

  • Finland's NATO accession has been ratified by the Turkish government.

  • The U.K.'s Q4 GDP was revised to reflect a slight expansion.

  • The U.K. agreed to join the trans-Pacific partnership.

  • European Central Bank policymaker Kazaks said that rate hikes will need to continue to combat inflation.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +6 @ 4,057

  • DJIA Futures: +71 @ 32,930

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -6 @ 12,957

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.53 @ 74.90

  • Nat Gas -0.008 @ 2.096

  • Gold +0.25 @ 1997.95

  • Silver +0.041 @ 24.03

  • Copper -0.0395 @ 4.052


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Algoma Steel Group ( ASTL 0.39% ) provides 4Q23 (Mar) guidance; expects adjusted EBITDA of CDN $25-30 mln; total steel shipments to be in the range of 555,000 to 565,000 tons

  • Banco Santander ( SAN 1.37% ) to confirm its targets for 2023 at the bank's annual general meeting

  • BlackBerry ( BB 0.50% ) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line

  • Braze ( BRZE 0.16% ) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • IGM Biosciences ( IGMS 1.45% ) beats by $0.01, to file Investigational New Drug applications for imvotamab this year

  • Rumble ( RUM 0.54% ) beats by $0.01 (single est), beats on revs (two ests)

  • Vaalco Energy ( EGY 2.15% ) provides Q4 update; releases FY23 production expectations

  • Y-mAbs Therapeutics ( YMAB 1.54% ) beats by $0.44, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 DANYELZA net product revenues

News:

  • House Republicans preparing bill that will pass along party lines to raise debt ceiling with spending cuts. However, the bill will likely be difficult to pass in the Senate, according to CNN

  • Finland approved to join NATO, according to the New York Times

  • Manhattan grand jury indicted Former President Trump for his alleged role in paying hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Mr. Trump is expected to turn himself in to authorities on Tuesday, according to the New York Times

  • Japan aiming to restrict semiconductor equipment exports, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • ABB Ltd ( ABB 2.59% ) launches new share buyback program of up to $1 billion

  • Baidu ( BIDU 2.61% ) has submitted an application for an addition of a Renminbi counter with an intention to support the new Hong Kong Dollar-RMB Dual Counter Model program

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.41% ) and Eisai presented new analyses of ARIA and QOL on Lecanemab in Clarity AD at the AD/PD 2023 Annual Meeting

  • Boeing ( BA 1.48% ): EVA Air boosts sustainable fleet with five additional 787-9 Dreamliners

  • Cabaletta Bio ( CABA 6.21% ) receives FDA clearance of IND application for CABA-201

  • Cytokinetics ( CYTK 2.95% ) announces that the Data Monitoring Committee for COURAGE-ALS recently convened to conduct the second planned interim analysis of this Phase 3 clinical trial

  • Edgewise Therapeutics ( EWTX 4.58% ) Announces Journal of Clinical Investigation Publication of Key Preclinical Data Linking Modulation of Fast Skeletal Muscle Contraction to Protection of Skeletal Muscle in Models of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

  • Eldorado Gold ( EGO 1.65% ) provided update on results from Ormaque step-out drilling and overview of 2023 global exploration programs

  • First Republic Bank ( FRC 3.93% ) edging higher on MA regulator probing insiders' stock sales, according to Reuters

  • Galapagos NV ( GLPG 0.27% ) and NovAliX enter into an integrated drug discovery collaboration

  • Globant ( GLOB 1.81% ) expands global partnership with Google Cloud (GOOGL) by creating a new dedicated Google Cloud studio

  • Hudbay Minerals ( HBM 3.57% ) provides annual reserve and resource update

  • Invivyd ( IVVD 8.14% ) doses first participants in phase 1 trial of VYD222, a novel monoclonal antibody candidate for COVID-19

  • KAR Auction Services ( KAR 1.76% ) announces retirement of Executive Chairman Jim Hallett

  • Marathon Oil ( MRO 0.30% ) signs Heads of Agreement with Republic of Equatorial Guinea and Noble Energy E.G. to progress next phases in development of Equatorial Guinea Regional Gas Mega Hub

  • Medical Properties Trust ( MPW 4.55% ) Files Lawsuit Against Short-Seller Viceroy Research and Its Members, Sends Letter to Shareholders

  • Metropolitan Bank ( MCB 27.58% ) issues updated financial information: remains well capitalized across all measures of regulatory capital

  • Netflix ( NFLX 1.93% ) aiming to restructure film group, according to Bloomberg

  • Nkarta ( NKTX 3.13% ) CFO and CBO Nadir Mahmood, PhD resigns, effective June 30; clinical updates on track for NKX101 in first half of 2023 and NKX019 in full year 2023

  • Nu Skin ( NUS 0.76% ) CFO Mark Lawrence to resign, effective March 31; CAO James Thomas named interim CFO; Co reiterates its Q1 and FY23 guidance

  • Parsons ( PSN 0.47% ) wins $164 mln contract for army ammunition plant environmental facility

  • Raytheon Technologies ( RTX 0.34% ) awarded $650 mln U.S. Navy contract

  • Rio Tinto ( RIO 1.92% ) and First Quantum Minerals agree to form joint venture to unlock development of the La Granja copper project in Peru

  • Taseko ( TGB 1.24% ) announces improved economics for its Florence Copper Project

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.72% ) CEO Elon Mush plans to visit China, according to Reuters

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.72% ) recalls 35 semi trucks over brake issue

  • TG Therapeutics ( TGTX 1.48% ) announces positive CHMP opinion for BRIUMVI (ublituximab-xiiy) for the treatment of RMS

  • TH International ( THCH 10.70% ) to become exclusive operator of Popeyes brand in China after acquiring PLKC International Limited; financial details not disclosed

  • Tiziana Life Sciences ( TLSA 5.00% ) announces anti-CD3 mAb research for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

  • Uber ( UBER 1.04% ) & BP (BP) Pulse team up on driver charging as EV momentum builds

  • Valero Energy ( VLO 0.05% ) is seeking US approval to import oil from Venezuela, according to Reuters

  • Verizon ( VZ 0.47% ): FAA aiming to award Verizon with a $2.4 billion contract, according to Reuters

  • Vipshop ( VIPS 2.13% ) announces $500 million share repurchase program

  • Walmart ( WMT 1.00% ): ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming met with CEO of Wal Mart, according to the New York Post

M&A:

  • Braze ( BRZE 0.16% ) enters into definitive agreement to acquire North Star, its exclusive reseller in Australia and New Zealand; terms of deal not disclosed

  • Distribution Solutions Group ( DSGR 0.95% ) to acquire HIS Company a distributor of specialty products serving high growth industrial technology applications

  • iStar ( STAR 2.01% ) announces consolidation ratio that will occur prior to the previously mentioned merger of iStar and Safehold (SAFE)

  • Shaw Comms ( SJR 0.87% ): Canadian minister is expected to approve deal with Rogers (RCI)

Syndicate:

  • Ambrx Biopharma ( AMAM 10.76% ) files $300 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • EnLink Midstream ( ENLC 2.09% ) prices $300 mln of additional 6.50% senior notes due 2030

  • Nikola Corporation ( NKLA 6.67% ) prices offering of 29,910,715 shares of common stock at $1.12 per share

  • Y-mAbs Therapeutics ( YMAB 1.54% ) files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering

IPOs:

  • JD.com ( JD 7.82% ) wants to raise $1 billion for each Hong Kong IPO, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • RUM +15.7%, MCB +13.4%, YMAB +12.5%, STAR +7.5%, BRZE +5.7%, IONQ +4.7%, PGTI +3.5%, NKTX +3.2%, MPW +2.7%, VIPS +1.8%, THCH +1.5%, ABB +1%


  • Gapping down:

  • BB -4.3%, TGB -2.5%, AEHR -1.9%, NUS -1.9%, AIN -1.5%, IGMS -1%, GATO -0.9%, RIO -0.6%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list:

  • Upgrades

  • Advance Auto (AAP) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $129

  • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company; tgt $49


  • Downgrades:

  • JD.com (JD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt lowered to $49


  • Others:

  • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $185

  • Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $52

  • Cardinal Health (CAH) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $77

  • DICE Therapeutics (DICE) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $56

  • Immatics N.V. (IMTX) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $12

  • Immunocore (IMCR) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $70

  • Jack In The Box (JACK) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $114

  • McKesson (MCK) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $420

  • Vigil Neuroscience (VIGL) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $15


  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Personal Income for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: Personal Spending for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 1.8%)

  • 08:30 ET: PCE Prices for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.4%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: PCE Prices - Core for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.4%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 09:45 ET: Chicago PMI for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 42.5; Prior 43.6)

  • 10;00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 63.4; Prior 63.4)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 27)

  • Morning: BNTX CCL

  • Afternoon: PVH


  • Tuesday (Mar 28)

  • Morning: CNM IHS LOVE MKC SNX WBA

  • Afternoon: CALM PLAY JEF LULU MU NCNO PRGS


  • Wednesday (Mar 29)

  • Morning: BLUE CTAS CONN KC PAYX SHCR UNF

  • Afternoon: CNXC FUL RH SMTC CXM VRNT


  • Thursday (Mar 30)

  • Morning: ANGO EVGO NEOG

  • Afternoon: BB BRZE YMAB



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. China's Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs remained in expansionary territory for the third consecutive month with Non-Manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level since mid-2011. China's vice finance minister said that fiscal policy adjustments need to be stepped up. Japan will impose export restrictions on 23 types of chipmaking equipment starting in July.

  • In economic data:

  • China's March Manufacturing PMI 51.9 (expected 51.5; last 52.6) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.2 (expected 54.3; last 56.3)

  • Japan's February Retail Sales 6.6% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 5.0%), February Industrial Production 4.5% m/m (expected 2.7%; last -5.3%), February jobs/applications ratio 1.34 (expected 1.36; last 1.35), and February Unemployment Rate 2.6% (expected 2.4%; last 2.4%). February Construction Orders 22.3% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last -14.0%) and Housing Starts -0.3% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last 6.6%). March Tokyo CPI 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.4%) and Tokyo Core CPI 3.2% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.3%)

  • South Korea's February Retail Sales 5.3% m/m (last -1.1%). February Industrial Production -3.2% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 2.4%); -8.1% yr/yr (expected -8.3%; last -13.0%)

  • Hong Kong's February Retail Sales 31.3% yr/yr (last 7.0%)

  • Australia's February Private Sector Credit 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.4%) and Housing Credit 0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.9% (+2.4% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5% (+2.4% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4% (+0.2% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +1.8% (+2.6% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.0% (+2.6% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8% (+3.3% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.5% to 133.36

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.8770

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.16

Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.5%

Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the quarter after the release of a big batch of data. Finland's NATO accession has been ratified by the Turkish government. The U.K.'s Q4 GDP was revised to reflect a slight expansion. The U.K. agreed to join the trans-Pacific partnership. European Central Bank policymaker Kazaks said that rate hikes will need to continue to combat inflation.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's February Unemployment Rate 6.6% (expected 6.7%; last 6.6%). March CPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 6.9% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 8.5%). March Core CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.8%); 5.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.6%)

  • Germany's February Retail Sales -1.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.1%); -7.1% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.9%). February Import Price Index -2.4% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -1.2%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; last 6.6%). March Unemployment change 16,000 (expected 3,000; last 2,000) and March Unemployment Rate 5.6% (expected 5.5%; last 5.5%).

  • U.K.'s Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.3%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.2%). Q4 Business Investment -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 4.8%; last 0.1%); 10.8% yr/yr (expected 13.2%; last 8.0%). March Nationwide HPI -0.8% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.5%); -3.1% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -1.1%)

  • France's February Consumer Spending -0.8% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.7%). February PPI -0.9% m/m (last 2.5%). March CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last 1.0%); 5.6% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 6.3%)

  • Italy's January Industrial Sales -1.1% m/m (last 0.7%); 8.6% yr/yr (last 14.9%). March CPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 7.7% yr/yr (expected 8.2%; last 9.1%)

  • Spain's January Current Account surplus EUR3.27 bln (last surplus of EUR1.70 bln)

  • Swiss February Retail Sales 0.3% yr/yr (expected -1.0%; last -1.7%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4% (+3.8% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.5% (+4.3% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (+3.2% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: +0.5% (+4.1% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3% (+4.7% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3% (+5.1% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.3% to 1.0876

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2380

  • USD/CHF: +0.5% to 0.9173


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