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28/12/21

The S&P 500 futures trade 23 points, or 0.5%, above fair value and in record territory, as momentum continues to drive the market higher. The S&P 500 enters the session up 4.9% over the last four sessions.

Risk sentiment this morning has been supported by the CDC confirming a decision to shorten the recommended isolation time for asymptomatic people with COVID-19 to 5 days from 10 days. That could potentially ease the work disruptions caused by the Omicron variant, as seen in airlines and cruise lines.

On a related note, a study from South Africa showed that infection from the Omicron variant increased immunity against infection from the Delta variant, according to Bloomberg.

The yield on the 2-yr Treasury note, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, is currently up five basis points to 0.75%. The 10-yr yield remains unchanged at 1.48%, flattening the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 96.01. WTI crude futures are up 1.4%, or $1.08, to $76.64/bbl.

Separately, Tesla (TSLA 1113.60, +19.66, +1.8%) could be a stock to watch for a gauge on momentum. TSLA shares are indicated higher by 1.8% in pre-market action after rising 21.6% over the past four sessions.

Today's economic data will be limited to home prices, namely the FHFA Housing Price Index for October and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (Briefing.comconsensus 18.7%) at 9:00 a.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 1113.60, +19.66): +1.8% in a momentum trade after rising 21.6% over the past four sessions.

  • Zoom Video (ZM 186.20, -1.24): -0.7% amid an acquisition of "certain assets" from Liminal to enhance the company's events offerings. Terms were not disclosed.

  • Luminar Technologies (LAZR17.93, +0.14): +0.8% after being named a top pick for 2022 at Northland Capital.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a higher note while markets in Australia and New Zealand remained closed but will reopen tomorrow. Japan's Nikkei: +1.4% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4% India's Sensex: +0.8% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: CLOSED.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Industrial Production 7.2% m/m (expected 4.8%; last 1.8%). November jobs/applications ratio 1.15 (expected 1.16; last 1.15) and November Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 2.7%; last 2.7%). November Construction Orders 11.7% yr/yr (last 2.1%) and November BoJ Core CPI 0.8% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%)

  • South Korea's December Consumer Confidence 103.9 (last 107.6)

  • Hong Kong's November trade deficit HKD11.60 bln (last deficit of HKD30.50 bln). November Imports 20.0% m/m (last 17.7%) and Exports 25.0% m/m (last 21.4%)


  • In news:

  • The Japanese government raised its assessment of industrial production after the November industrial production report beat estimates.

  • Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that there are no current plans for an extra budget in 2022.

  • Electricity and gas prices in South Korea will increase next year with electricity price hikes planed for May, July, and October.

  • Evergrande pledged to accelerate deliveries of completed properties. The developer is facing another bond payment deadline today.



  • Major European indices trade on a higher note while the U.K.'s FTSE is closed for Boxing Day. STOXX Europe 600: +1.1% Germany's DAX: +0.8% U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED France's CAC 40: +0.5% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.8% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • Spain's November Retail Sales 4.9% yr/yr (last -0.7%)


  • In news:

  • French Prime Minister Castex announced plans for tighter coronavirus restrictions in the middle of January, including vaccine passports and mandatory work from home.

  • Russia's Gazprom did not book export capacity to Europe for the eighth day in a row.

  • Officials from Russia and the U.S. will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine during the second week of January.




U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +14 @ 4,806

  • DJIA Futures: +94 @ 36,396

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +83 @ 16,650

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE closed for holiday, CAC +0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.11 @ 76.78

  • Nat Gas -0.017 @ 4.043

  • Gold +10.00 @ 1818.80

  • Silver +0.281 @ 23.270

  • Copper +0.0100 @ 4.4820

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):

  • Vipshop (VIPS) lowers Q4 revenue guidance to (5)-0%, from previous guidance of 0-5%


  • General News:

  • CDC confirms it is shortening the recommended time for isolation from 10 days for people with COVID-19 to 5 days, if asymptomatic

  • Study from South Africa shows that Omicron infection increased immunity against Delta infection. Bloomberg

  • US and Russia will hold security talks on January 10.Guardian

  • Dr. Anthony Fauci says Americans should not expect to see a vaccine requirement for domestic air travel unless "things change dramatically." Politico

  • Apple (AAPL) closes NYC stores due to COVID case surge, according to CNBC

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) reports DESTINY-Breast03 results showing trastuzumab deruxtecan reduced risk of disease progression or death by 72%

  • Boeing (BA): Indonesia will allow return of Boeing 737 Max jets to flight. Nikkei

  • Clear Secure (YOU): United Airlines (UAL) disclosed 5.1% passive stake

  • Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) announces that the Phase 3 portion of the Phase 2/3 trial of mavrilimumab in COVID-19-related acute respiratory syndrome did not meet the primary efficacy endpoint

  • Moderna (MRNA) announces revised supply agreement with South Korea for 20 mln doses

  • ReneSola (SOL) to sell 12MW portfolio of projects in Spain

  • RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD) announces it recently identified a systems intrusion in its technical environment


  • M&A:

  • Middleby (MIDD) closes on Masterbuilt Holdings acquisition; also acquires Char-Griller

  • Roman DBDR Tech Acquisition Corp (DBDR) closes business combination with CompoSecure; will trade under ticker "CMPO" on December 28

  • Vista Outdoor (VSTO) announces acquisition of hunting gear brand Stone Glacier; deal to be immediately accretive to earnings

  • Zoom Video (ZM) announces acquisition of Liminal Assets; terms not disclosed


  • Syndicate:

  • ESS Inc. (GWH) files for 5 mln share common stock offering; also files for 5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholder


  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected to price.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • SOL +4.5%, GWH +1.7%, USO +1.1%, ALK +0.6%, UAL +0.4%, AAPL +0.4%


  • Gapping down:

  • RRD -1.6%, MRNA -1.5%, VIPS -1.2%, VALE -1.1%, HA -1%, VXX -1%



Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • No upgrades of note


  • Downgrades:

  • Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

  • InnovAge (INNV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $4


  • Others:

  • Better Therapeutics (BTTX) initiated with an Outperform at LifeSci Capital; tgt $15

  • Bilibili (BILI) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $86

  • iQIYI (IQ) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company

  • Luminar Technologies (LAZR) named top pick for 2022 at Northland Capital

  • Tencent Music (TME) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company

  • Veeco Instruments (VECO) named top pick for 2022 at Northland Capital


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 09:00 ET: October FHFA Housing Price Index (Prior +0.9%)

  • 09:00 ET: October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.comconsensus +18.7%; Prior +19.1%)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Dec 27)

  • Morning: None of note

  • Afternoon: None of note


  • Tuesday (Dec 28)

  • Morning: None of note

  • Afternoon: CALM


  • Wednesday (Dec 29)

  • Morning: FCEL

  • Afternoon: None of note


  • Thursday (Dec 30)

  • Morning: None of note

  • Afternoon: None of note


  • Friday (Dec 31)

  • Morning: None of note

  • Afternoon: None of note




Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a higher note while markets in Australia and New Zealand remained closed but will reopen tomorrow. The Japanese government raised its assessment of industrial production after the November industrial production report beat estimates. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that there are no current plans for an extra budget in 2022. Electricity and gas prices in South Korea will increase next year with electricity price hikes planed for May, July, and October. Evergrande pledged to accelerate deliveries of completed properties. The developer is facing another bond payment deadline today.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Industrial Production 7.2% m/m (expected 4.8%; last 1.8%). November jobs/applications ratio 1.15 (expected 1.16; last 1.15) and November Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 2.7%; last 2.7%). November Construction Orders 11.7% yr/yr (last 2.1%) and November BoJ Core CPI 0.8% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%)

  • South Korea's December Consumer Confidence 103.9 (last 107.6)

  • Hong Kong's November trade deficit HKD11.60 bln (last deficit of HKD30.50 bln). November Imports 20.0% m/m (last 17.7%) and Exports 25.0% m/m (last 21.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4%

  • India's Sensex: +0.8%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: CLOSED

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 114.85

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.3704

  • USD/INR: -0.3% to 74.71

Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE closed for holiday, CAC +0.5%

Major European indices trade on a higher note while the U.K.'s FTSE is closed for Boxing Day. French Prime Minister Castex announced plans for tighter coronavirus restrictions in the middle of January, including vaccine passports and mandatory work from home. Russia's Gazprom did not book export capacity to Europe for the eighth day in a row. Officials from Russia and the U.S. will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine during the second week of January.

  • In economic data:

  • Spain's November Retail Sales 4.9% yr/yr (last -0.7%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +1.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.8%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED

  • France's CAC 40: +0.5%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.8%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.1332

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.3451

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.9162


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