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28/09/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 37 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 12 points and are trading fractionally above fair value.

Stock futures have been mixed this morning. Market participants are waiting to see if there is any follow through from yesterday's afternoon rebound effort, but rising long-term rates are still keeping stocks in check.

The 10-yr note yield is up one basis points to 4.64%. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 5.13%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 106.31.

In other news, the People's Bank of China injected more liquidity and continued fixing the yuan at a higher level.

Market participants are also awaiting some key economic releases this morning, including:

  • 8:30 ET: Q2 GDP -- third estimate (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%; prior 2.1%), Q2 GDP Deflator -- third estimate (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%; prior 2.0%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 215,000; prior 201,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.662 mln)

  • 10:00 ET: August Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus -1.0%; prior 0.9%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +64 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Apple (AAPL 169.87, -0.57, -0.3%): ordered to face antitrust lawsuit regarding its Apple Pay offering, according to Reuters; Reports of overheating issues with new iPhone, according to the WSJ

  • CarMax (KMX 70.00, -9.69, -12.2%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; Retail used unit sales decreased 7.4% and comparable store used unit sales declined 9.0% yr/yr

  • Micron (MU 65.63, -2.58, -3.8%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Peloton (PTON 5.30, +0.65, +14.0%): and lululemon (LULU) announce a five-year strategic partnership; PTON to become exclusive digital fitness content provider for LULU, which will become primary athletic apparel partner to PTON; LULU to discontinue its Studio Mirror

  • GameStop (GME 18.62, +1.47, +8.6%): elects Ryan Cohen as CEO, effective immediately

  • Workday (WDAY 205.12, -25.69, -11.2%): guided subscription growth to 17-19% through FY27, down from its prior long-term target of about 20%

  • Duolingo (DUOL 156.00, +1.76, +1.1%): UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating

  • Uber (UBER 45.16, +0.02, +0.04%): names Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah as CFO, effective November 13; joins from Analog Devices (ADI) where he served as CFO

  • Accenture (ACN 299.05, -15.33, -4.7%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line; announces 15% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.29 per share; Board of Directors approves $4.0 billion of additional share repurchase authority

  • Concentrix (CNXC 69.50, -4.47, -6.0%): misses by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; raises quarterly dividend 10% to $0.3025/share

  • Worthington (WRO 69.52, -1.56, -2.2%): beats by $0.02, misses on revs; on-track to complete separation as early as Dec 2023

  • AGCO Corp (AGCO 118.20, +0.65, +0.6%): will acquire an 85% interest in Trimble's (TRMB) portfolio of Ag assets and technologies for cash consideration of $2.0 billion and the contribution of JCA Technologies

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note while markets in South Korea were closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: -1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%, India's Sensex: -0.9%, South Korea's Kospi: CLOSED, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

    • In economic data:

      • India's Q2 Current Account Deficit $9.20 bln (expected deficit of $8.90 bln; last deficit of $1.30 bln)

      • Australia's August Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%)

      • New Zealand's September ANZ Business Confidence 1.5 (last -3.7) and NBNZ Own Activity 10.9% (last 11.2%)


  • In news:

    • Large investment funds sold a record amount of Japanese stocks during the past week.

    • The People's Bank of China injected more liquidity and continued fixing the yuan at a higher level.

    • Shares of Evergrande were suspended in Hong Kong after the company's chairman was detained.

    • Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that the currency market is being watched with "a strong sense of urgency."



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.4%, France's CAC 40: +0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.4%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's September Business and Consumer Survey 93.3 (expected 92.5; last 93.6)

      • Italy's September Business Confidence 96.4 (expected 97.8; last 97.7) and Consumer Confidence 105.4 (expected 105.5; last 106.5). August PPI 0.5% m/m (last -0.1%); -12.2% yr/yr (last -10.2%)

      • Spain's September CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%); 3.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%). August Retail Sales 7.2% yr/yr (last 7.3%). September Business Confidence -8.7 (last -6.6)


  • In news:

    • Germany's economic institutes lowered their 2023 GDP forecast to -0.6% from +0.3%.

    • There were renewed concerns about Italy's fiscal standing after the country's budget for 2024 showed the deficit-to-GDP ratio increasing to 4.3% from 3.7%.

    • France may impose a windfall tax on energy companies.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -5 @ 4,270

  • DJIA Futures: -1 @ 33,549

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -46@ 14,535

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE -0.4%, CAC +0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.5%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.48 @ 93.20

  • Nat Gas +0.035 @ 2.934

  • Gold +2.55 @ 1893.45

  • Silver +0.088 @ 22.812

  • Copper +0.0430 @ 3.6795


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Accenture ( ACN 1.21% ) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line; also announces 15% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.29 per share; Board of Directors approves $4.0 billion of additional share repurchase authority

  • CarMax ( KMX 1.84% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Concentrix ( CNXC 0.00% ) misses by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; raises quarterly dividend 10% to $0.3025/share

  • H.B. Fuller ( FUL 0.58% ) misses by $0.08, misses on revs; lowers high end of prior FY23 EPS guidance; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • Jabil ( JBL 0.17% ) beats by $0.13, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; increases current share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion

  • Jefferies ( JEF 0.03% ) reports Q3 (Aug) results; co is increasingly optimistic it has come off the bottom of the cycle

  • JetBlue Airways ( JBLU 0.00% ) provides Q3 update; now anticipates revenue to be near the low end of the Company's previous guidance range

  • Marinus Pharmaceuticals ( MRNS 0.00% ) sees FY23 U.S. ZTALMY Net Product Revenue: $17 - $18.5 million per presentation slides

  • Micron ( MU 0.00% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Philip Morris International ( PM 0.82% ) updates guidance at Investor Day

  • The Duckhorn Portfolio ( NAPA 0.59% ) beats by $0.02, slightly beats on revs, guides FY24 EPS and revenue below consensus; also announces that its CEO is retiring

  • Worthington ( WOR 3.92% ) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; on-track to complete separation as early as Dec 2023

News:

  • Screen Actors Guild -American Federation of Television and Radio Artists and Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers confirmed yesterday plans to meet for bargaining on Oct. 2

  • White House released yesterday remarks by President Biden Before Meeting with the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology

  • Alphabet's ( GOOG 0.00% ) Pixel phone gaining market share in Japan, according to Hindustan Times

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 0.00% ), Apple (AAPL), and Meta (META) on track to receive regulatory approval for VR devices, according to Bloomberg

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ) ordered to face antitrust lawsuit regarding its Apple Pay offering, according to Reuters

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ): Reports of overheating issues with new iPhone, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • BioLineRx ( BLRX 0.00% ) announces encouraging data from Pilot Phase of Phase 2 combination clinical trial with Motixafortide in First-Line Pancreatic Cancer

  • Bowman Consulting Group ( BWMN 0.00% ) was awarded a multi-year, on-call engineering services contract with the Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

  • Canadian Solar's ( CSIQ 0.00% ) Recurrent Energy executes Sale of 17.5 MWp Solar Power Plant in Japan

  • Corteva ( CTVA 0.08% ) files suit against Inari Agriculture, Inc. and Inari Agriculture NV; alleges that Inari deliberately used a third-party agent to obtain protected Corteva seeds

  • Evergrande's shares suspended again, according to Reuters

  • Honda Motor ( HMC 0.75% ) announces postponement of change in capital structure of Hitachi Astemo including capital participation of JIC Capital

  • GameStop ( GME 2.21% ) elects Ryan Cohen as CEO

  • Gritstone bio ( GRTS 0.00% ) awarded BARDA contract to conduct comparative Phase 2b study evaluating next-generation vaccine candidate for COVID-19 valued at up to $433 million

  • Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico ( PAC 0.43% ) announces the $40.0 mln drawdown from an available credit facility for the acquisition of a company within the Tijuana Airport

  • IAMGOLD ( IAG 0.48% ) names Bruno Lemelin as COO

  • IBM ( IBM 0.05% ) announced the general availability of the first models in the watsonx Granite model series - a collection of generative AI models to advance the infusion of generative AI into business applications and workflows

  • ImmunoGen ( IMGN 0.00% ): ELAHERE Shows Overall and Progression-Free Survival Benefit Regardless of Prior PARPi Exposure or Prior Lines of Therapy in FRa-Positive Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer

  • Intel ( INTC 0.00% ) announces the start of high-volume manufacturing of the Intel 4 process technology at Fab 34 in Leixlip, Ireland; company to host live event on Friday, September 29 at 7:45 am ET

  • Johnson Controls ( JCI 0.66% ) reports cybersecurity incident; incident has caused disruption to parts of co's business operations

  • Karuna Therapeutics ( KRTX 0.00% ) submits NDA to FDA for KarXT for the Treatment of Schizophrenia

  • Kura Oncology ( KURA 0.00% ) reports preclinical data showing ability of KO-2806 to enhance antitumor activity of KRAS-G12C inhibitors in non-small cell lung cancer

  • Leidos ( LDOS 1.11% ) announces collaboration with Sofia Airport in Bulgaria to implement its hold baggage screnning systems

  • MediciNova ( MNOV 0.00% ) Announces Results of Studies under BARDA Contract to Develop MN 166 (ibudilast) as a Medical Countermeasure Against Chlorine Gas-induced Lung Injury

  • Merck ( MRK 1.38% ) receives priority review from FDA for New Biologics License Application for sotatercept, an activin signaling inhibitor to treat adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension

  • Mirion Technologies ( MIR 1.59% ) unit, Sun Nuclear, receives CE Marking for SunSCAN 3D cylindrical water scanning system

  • NIO ( NIO 0.59% ) has held talks with Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBGYY) for a tie-up that would include investment, tech alliances, according to Reuters

  • OneSpan ( OSPN 0.00% ) expects to complete approximately 85% of previously announced workforce reductions by the end of 2023; remaining reductions to occur throughout 2024; reiterates FY23 and FY24 guidance

  • Pactiv Evergreen ( PTVE 0.00% ) collaborating with ExxonMobil (XOM) to provide certified-circular packaging technologies to major food brands and foodservice providers

  • Peloton ( PTON 0.00% ) and lululemon (LULU) announce a five-year strategic partnership; PTON to become exclusive digital fitness content provider for LULU, which will become primary athletic apparel partner to PTON; LULU to discontinue its Studio Mirror

  • Polymet Mining ( PLM 0.00% ) receives interim order for proposed arrangement with Glencore (GLNCY) and provides details of shareholders' meeting

  • Sagimet Biosciences ( SGMT 0.00% ) announces completion of enrollment of 120 patients for Phase 3 clinical trial by its partner ascletis of denifanstat combined with Bevacizumab for treatment of recurrent glioblastoma

  • Southwest Air ( LUV 0.94% ) partners with experience management provider Qualtrics

  • Takeda Pharma ( TAK 0.06% ) announces that the U.S FDA has approved a subcutaneous administration of ENTYVIO for maintenance therapy in adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis after induction therapy with ENTYVIO intravenous

  • TechnipFMC ( FTI 2.75% ) awarded a large integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation contract by Equinor (EQNR) for its Rosebank project

  • Uber ( UBER 1.97% ) names Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah as CFO, effective November 13; joins from Analog Devices (ADI) where he served as CFO

  • UPS ( UPS 0.34% ) strengthens network capabilities and employee experience through automation

  • Warrior Met Coal ( HCC 8.21% ) confirmed it received an imminent danger order

  • Whirlpool ( WHR 0.37% ): UK CMA has found that Arelik's anticipated purchase of Whirlpool's major appliances business in Europe could reduce choice in the supply of washing machines, tumble dryers, dishwashers and cooking appliances

M&A:

  • Abcam ( ABCM 0.00% ): Jonathan Milner issues Open Letter to shareholders of Abcam; urges shareholders to Vote Against the proposed acquisition of Abcam by Danaher (DHR)

  • AGCO Corp ( AGCO 1.76% ) will acquire an 85% interest in Trimble's (TRMB) portfolio of Ag assets and technologies for cash consideration of $2.0 billion and the contribution of JCA Technologies

  • Alta Equipment Group ( ALTG 0.41% ) to acquire Burris Equipment

  • J.M. Smucker ( SJM 2.31% ) to sell its Sahale Snacks brand to Second Nature Brands for approximately $34 mln in cash

  • Kyndryl ( KD 0.60% ) may spin out China unit, according to the Financial Times

  • Newmont Goldcorp ( NEM 5.38% ): ISS and Glass Lewis recommend Newmont Shareholders Vote 'FOR' Proposed Acquisition of Newcrest (NCMGY)

  • Peoples Financial Services Corp. ( PFIS 0.00% ) and FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (FNBC) announce transformational strategic merger

  • TotalEnergies ( TTE 1.25% ) sells a 40% interest in Block 20 to Petronas ahead of its development

  • UPS ( UPS 0.34% ) to acquire MNX Global Logistics, a global time-critical logistics provider

  • VSE Corp ( VSEC 0.00% ) announces mutual agreement to terminate the sale of the VSE Federal and Defense segment to Bernhard Capital Partners

Syndicate:

  • Alpine Income Property Trust ( PINE 0.25% ) files for $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Coty ( COTY 4.84% ) announces the pricing of its previously-announced global offering of 33 mln shares of Coty's outstanding Class A common stock, at a price of $10.80/share

  • Immunovant Sciences ( IMVT 0.00% ) prices offering of 7.37 mln shares of common stock at $38.00 per share

  • Kimbell Royalty Partners ( KRP 1.50% ) files for 21,566,025 common units by selling unitholders

  • Opera ( OPRA 0.00% ) files for 6,876,506 American Depositary Shares from a pre-IPO shareholder

  • Soleno Therapeutics ( SLNO 0.00% ) announces proposed public offering of common stock and/or pre-funded warrants and a concurrent private placement of common stock and/or pre-funded warrants

IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

    • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • BNOX +40.1%, GRTS +30.7%, MNOV +18.7%, PTON +12.9%, GME +6.5%, KRP +4.1%, SLNO +2.5%, SGMT +2%, HCC +2%, TTE +1.8%, PFIS +1.6%, LDOS +1.2%, PTVE +0.6%, NAPA +0.6%, FTI +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

    • CNXC -5.8%, MU -4.7%, OPRA -3.2%, JCI -2.2%, WOR -2.2%, TAK -2.1%, FUL -1.6%, PINE -1.3%, JEF -1.2%, CTVA -0.5%, NEM -0.5%, IMVT -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt raised to $280


  • Downgrades:

    • Agora (API) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $3.20


  • Others:

    • Boeing (BA) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $204

    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $86

    • Crane (CR) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $118

    • Flywire (FLYW) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $37

    • General Dynamics (GD) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $271

    • General Electric (GE) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $141

    • HEICO (HEI) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $192

    • Hexcel (HXL) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $70

    • L3Harris (LHX) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $192

    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $435

    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $502

    • RTX (RTX) initiated with a Sell at Deutsche Bank; tgt $70

    • Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $16

    • Transdigm Group (TDG) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $1001

    • Woodward (WWD) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $152


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: GDP - Third Estimate for Q2 (Briefing.com Consensus 2.1%; Prior 2.1%)

  • 08:30 ET: GDP Deflator - Third Estimate for Q2 (Briefing.com Consensus 2.0%; Prior 2.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Sept 23 (Briefing.com Consensus 215K; Prior 201K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Sept 16 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1662K)

  • 10:00 ET: Pending Home Sales for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus -1.0%; Prior 0.9%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Sept 23 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +64 bcf)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Sep 25)

    • Afternoon: THO


  • Tuesday (Sep 26)

    • Morning: CTAS FERG SNX UNFI

    • Afternoon: AIR COST MLKN PRGS


  • Wednesday (Sep 27)

    • Morning: PAYX

    • Afternoon: CNXC FUL JEF MU WOR


  • Thursday (Sep 28)

    • Morning: ACN KMX JBL

    • Afternoon: NKE MTN


  • Friday (Sep 29)

    • During Market Hours: CCL


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.5%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note while markets in South Korea were closed for a holiday. Large investment funds sold a record amount of Japanese stocks during the past week. The People's Bank of China injected more liquidity and continued fixing the yuan at a higher level. Shares of Evergrande were suspended in Hong Kong after the company's chairman was detained. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that the currency market is being watched with "a strong sense of urgency."

  • In economic data:

    • India's Q2 Current Account Deficit $9.20 bln (expected deficit of $8.90 bln; last deficit of $1.30 bln)

    • Australia's August Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%)

    • New Zealand's September ANZ Business Confidence 1.5 (last -3.7) and NBNZ Own Activity 10.9% (last 11.2%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%

  • India's Sensex: -0.9%

  • South Korea's Kospi: CLOSED

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.1% to 149.32

  • USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.3058

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 83.15

Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE -0.4%, CAC +0.2%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. Germany's economic institutes lowered their 2023 GDP forecast to -0.6% from +0.3%. There were renewed concerns about Italy's fiscal standing after the country's budget for 2024 showed the deficit-to-GDP ratio increasing to 4.3% from 3.7%. France may impose a windfall tax on energy companies.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's September Business and Consumer Survey 93.3 (expected 92.5; last 93.6)

    • Italy's September Business Confidence 96.4 (expected 97.8; last 97.7) and Consumer Confidence 105.4 (expected 105.5; last 106.5). August PPI 0.5% m/m (last -0.1%); -12.2% yr/yr (last -10.2%)

    • Spain's September CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%); 3.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%). August Retail Sales 7.2% yr/yr (last 7.3%). September Business Confidence -8.7 (last -6.6)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: UNCH

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.4%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.4%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.0538

  • GBP/USD: +0.5% to 1.2190

  • USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.9186


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