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28/06/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value.

There's not a lot of conviction on either side of the tape, driving mixed action in the equity futures market. Participants are waiting to see if there will be any follow through to yesterday's rally. Weakness in NVIDIA (NVDA) and other chipmakers following reports that the U.S. is mulling new restrictions on artificial intelligence chip exports from China has weighed on the broader market.

Fed Chair Powell will speak on a policy panel at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal at 9:30 a.m. ET. Mr. Powell wrapped up his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress last Thursday, so there shouldn't be anything too surprising in his commentary today.

After today's close, the Federal Reserve will release the results from the annual bank stress tests.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 3.0% with purchase applications and refinancing applications each rising 3.0%.

Other economic data today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: May Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods (prior -$96.8 billion), Adv. Retail Inventories (prior +0.2%), and Adv. Wholesale Inventories (prior -0.2%)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -3.83 million barrels)

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down three basis points to 4.73% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 102.76.

In corporate news:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 406.75, -12.26, -2.9%): US mulling new restrictions on artificial intelligence chip exports from China, according to WSJ

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 28.62, -0.02, -0.1%): downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

  • Pinterest (PINS 27.59, +1.19, +4.5%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • General Mills (GIS 77.29, -3.61, -4.5%): beats by $0.05, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line; raises dividend

  • IHS Holding Limited (IHS 10.08, +0.50, +5.2%): Blackwells Capital sends letter to the Board of Directors of IHS Holding Limited regarding the immediate need for governance enhancements

  • AeroVironment (AVAV 95.89, +5.57, +6.2%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 4.72, -1.65, -25.9%): prices offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $59.4 mln

  • Canadian Pacific (CP 78.00, -2.36, -2.9%): provides growth outlook at 2023 Investor Day; provides multi-year guidance; sees FY23 EPS below consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +2.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH, India's Sensex: +0.8%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June Industrial Profit -18.8% YTD (last -20.6%)

  • South Korea's June Consumer Confidence 100.7 (expected 96.4; last 98.0)

  • Australia's May CPI 5.6% yr/yr (expected 6.1%; last 6.8%)


  • In news:

  • The Chinese yuan faced continued pressure despite yesterday's intervention, falling to a fresh seven-month low against the dollar.

  • There were ongoing concerns that the Bank of Japan will also intervene to slow the yen's fall against the dollar.

  • China's National Bureau of Statistics noted that industrial profits are being reduced by insufficient demand.

  • Australia's CPI grew at its slowest level since April 2022 in the reading for May.



  • Major European indices trade in positive territory. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.9%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%, France's CAC 40: +0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's May Private Sector Loans 2.1% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 2.5%) and loans to nonfinancials 4.0% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 4.6%)

  • Germany's July GfK Consumer Climate -25.4 (expected -23.0; last -24.4)

  • France's June Consumer Confidence 85 (expected 84; last 83)

  • Italy's June CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 6.4% yr/yr (expected 6.8%; last 7.6%). May PPI -2.3% m/m (expected -6.2%; last -4.8%); -4.3% yr/yr (expected -9.4%; last -1.5%). April Industrial Sales -1.8% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.4%); -1.8% yr/yr (expected 11.3%; last 4.2%)

  • Spain's May Retail Sales 6.0% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 5.7%)

  • Swiss June ZEW Expectations -30.8 (expected -32.3; last -32.2)


  • In news:

  • Germany's GFK Consumer Climate survey recorded its first monthly decrease since falling to a record low in October with concerns about recession fueling the fall.

  • There were some reports suggesting that the European Central Bank could accelerate the pace of its asset sales.

  • Italy's Prime Minister Meloni confirmed yesterday's reports that Fabio Panetta will replace Ignazio Visco as the governor of the Bank of Italy. She also expressed concerns about additional rate hikes from the ECB.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -7 @ 4,371

  • DJIA Futures: +22 @ 33,948

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -59 @ 14,887

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.9%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.9%

  • Asia: Nikkei +2.0%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.17 @ 67.87

  • Nat Gas +0.060 @ 2.849

  • Gold -7.80 @ 1916.00

  • Silver -0.253 @ 22.707

  • Copper -0.0395 @ 3.749


Earnings/Guidance:

  • AeroVironment ( AVAV 0.00% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Canadian Pacific ( CP 0.53% ) provides growth outlook at 2023 Investor Day; provides multi-year guidance; sees FY23 EPS below consensus

  • Gatos Silver ( GATO 4.99% ) files Q1 results for LGJV; guidance unchanged

  • General Mills ( GIS 1.17% ) beats by $0.05, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line; raises dividend

  • Global Blue ( GB 0.00% ) reports FY2022/23 results

  • Jefferies ( JEF 1.30% ) reports Q2 (May) results, revs in-line; increases repurchase program to $250 mln

  • NovaGold Resources ( NG 0.87% ) misses by $0.02

  • Roivant Sciences ( ROIV 0.00% ) reports Q4 (Mar) results, beats on revs

News:

  • President Biden releases economic platform ahead of speech today at 13:00 ET

  • US mulling new restrictions on artificial intelligence chip exports from China, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • EU Commission welcomes political agreement on rules for a fair and innovative data economy

  • AbbVie ( ABBV 1.74% ) and Genmab (GMAB) Announce Positive Topline Results from Phase 1/2 EPCORE NHL-1 Trial Evaluating Epcoritamab (DuoBody-CD3xCD20) in Patients with Relapsed/Refractory Follicular Lymphoma

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 0.00% ): Research finds it violated its standards in ad deals, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Anavex ( AVXL 0.00% ): Long-term Clinical Study Demonstrates Disease Modifying Effects of ANAVEX2-73 (blarcamesine) for Rett Syndrome

  • Bayer AG ( BAYRY ) initiates the Phase III clinical development program called QUANTI, aiming to evaluate the safety and efficacy of gadoquatrane, an investigational extracellular macrocyclic gadolinium-based contrast agent for use in magnetic resonance imaging

  • Bayer AG ( BAYRY ) provides update to new pharmaceutical R&D strategy to accelerate breakthrough innovations

  • Bayer AG ( BAYRY ) reports BlueRock's neuronal stem cell therapy for Parkinson's disease is first to show positive results in Phase I clinical study

  • Boeing ( BA 1.87% ): 90% of Boeing China fleet has resumed operations, according to Reuters

  • Chimerix ( CMRX 0.00% ) announces appointment of Mike Andriole as President and CEO, replacing Mike Sherman, who is retiring from his role as CEO and will become Chairman of the Board of Directors

  • Columbia Banking ( COLB 0.00% ) details security incident involving MOVEit

  • Diageo plc ( DEO 0.95% ) cutting ties with Sean "Diddy" Combs, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Domino's Pizza ( DPZ 1.78% ) ordered an additional 300-plus General Motors' (GM) Chevy Bolt EVs to be on the road by the end of the year

  • Eargo ( EAR 0.00% ) approves cost reduction plan, 32-42% workforce reduction; CEO to step down

  • Eldorado Gold ( EGO 3.04% ) announces normal course issuer bid

  • Endeavour Silver ( EXK 1.05% ) announces at-the-market offering of up to us$60 million

  • Eton Pharmaceuticals ( ETON 0.00% ) receives Complete Response Letter (CRL) for dehydrated alcohol injection for the treatment of methanol poisoning

  • Foghorn Therapeutics ( FHTX 0.00% ) announces clinical data from phase 1 study of FHD-286 in metastatic uveal melanoma

  • General Dynamics ( GD 0.01% ) awarded $769 mln U.S. Army contract for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle Phase III and IV detailed design and prototype build and testing

  • Google ( GOOG 0.00% ) aiming to eliminate jobs at Waze, according to CNBC

  • Google ( GOOG 0.00% ) might cancel AR glasses, according to Andriod Central

  • Harley-Davidson ( HOG 0.95% ) appoints Jonathan Root, SVP of Harley-Davidson Financial Services, as its new CFO, effective immediately

  • Huntington Ingalls ( HII 1.19% ) shipbuilding division delivers first Flight III Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer to the U.S. Navy

  • IHS ( IHS 9.86% ): Activist wants new directors at IHS, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Incyte ( INCY 0.00% ): Specialised Therapeutics' MINJUVI provisionally approved for Australian patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

  • Intl Game Tech. PLC ( IGT 0.61% ) reaches agreement to provide its IGT ADVANTAGE casino management system to the Rio Hotel & Casino in Q4 of this year

  • Korea Electric Power Corp ( KEP 6.75% ) resolved to make an additional contribution of KRW 70.8 billion to the Korea Institute of Energy Technology

  • Liberty Global ( LBTYA 0.00% ): Independent Proxy Advisor Glass Lewis Recommends Shareholders Vote for All Proposals Related to Liberty Global's Change of Incorporation

  • Liquidia Technologies ( LQDA 0.00% ) and Pharmosa Biopharm to collaborate for sustained-release inhaled treprostinil product in North America

  • Lockheed Martin ( LMT 0.08% ) selected by U.S. Army to move on to the second phase of the Terrestrial Layer System (TLS) Echelons Above Brigade (TLS-EAB) program

  • NeoGames ( NGMS 0.00% ) appoints Motti Gil as CFO, effective August 1, 2023

  • New Found Gold Corp. ( NFGC 1.05% ) intercepts 31 g/t au over 7.95m at iceberg & 15 g/t au over 7.55m at iceberg east

  • Noah Holdings ( NOAH 3.82% ) provides updates on payment of final dividend

  • ON24, Inc. ( ONTF 3.85% ) committed to a restructuring plan to reduce expenses

  • Petrobras ( PBR 1.25% ) provides update on contract with SCGS

  • Pfizer ( PFE 1.27% ): FDA approves Pfizer's NGENLA, a long-acting once-weekly treatment for pediatric growth hormone deficiency

  • Primoris Services ( PRIM 2.07% ) received solar projects with combined estimated value of approximately $770 mln

  • Prothena ( PRTA 0.00% ) announces phase 3 VITAL clinical trial results published in blood showing survival benefit in patients with mayo stage IV AL Amyloidosis treated with Birtamimab

  • Realty Income ( O 0.40% ) invested approximately $2.6 billion in properties and properties under development or expansion at an initial weighted average cash lease yield of approximately 6.8%

  • Reata Pharmaceuticals ( RETA 0.00% ) receives FDA approval of prior approval supplement for SKYCLARYS

  • Southern ( SO 0.85% ) CEO is under internal investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Spirit Aerosystems ( SPR 1.95% ) confirms the contents of a new four-year contract proposal unanimously agreed to by the bargaining committee of the Local Lodge 839 of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers

  • Spirit Aerosystems ( SPR 1.95% ): Union strongly recommending members approve new labor deal, according to KWCH news

  • Verona Pharma ( VRNA 0.00% ) Announces Publication of Phase 3 ENHANCE Data in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

  • Zai Lab ( ZLAB 0.00% ) announces NDA acceptance of repotrectinib for patients with ROS1-positive NSCLC by China's NMPA

M&A:

  • Circor ( CIR 7.45% ) receives acquisition proposal from Arcline for $57.00 per share

  • DraftKings ( DKNG 0.00% ) no longer pursuing acquisition of PointsBet's U.S. Business

  • Littelfuse ( LFUS 0.00% ) to acquire a 200mm wafer fab located in Dortmund, Germany from Elmos Semiconductor SE

  • Oil-Dri ( ODC 0.88% ) subsidiary Amlan International acquires remaining non-controlling interest of Agromex Importaciones, S.A. de C.V.; financial details not disclosed

  • ONEOK ( OKE 1.54% ) and Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) announce expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, satisfying one of the conditions to closing ONEOK's pending acquisition of Magellan

  • Overstock (OSTK): Bankruptcy judge approves Overstock purchase of Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY 0.00% ) brand name, according to Reuters

  • Western Asset Mortgage ( WMC 0.00% ) and Terra Property Trust merge to form credit-oriented real estate investment trust

  • Whole Earth Brands ( FREE 0.00% ) confirms receipt of $4/sh proposal from Sababa; forms special committee to evaluate offer

Syndicate:

  • AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS 0.00% ) prices offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $59.4 mln

  • Axsome Therapeutics ( AXSM 0.00% ) announces proposed public offering of common stock

  • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics ( MLTX 0.00% ) prices offering of 8.0 mln shares of common stock at $50.00 per share

IPOs:

  • IPOs Expected to Price:

  • Fidelis Insurance (NYSE: FIHL): The global reinsurance company with operations in Bermuda, Irelands, and the UK is expected to price its 17.0 M share IPO between $16-$19.

  • Kodiak Services (NYSE: KGS): The leading operator of contract compression infrastructure in the United States is expected to price its 16.0 M share IPO between $19-$22.

  • Savers Value Village (NYSE: SVV): The largest for-profit thrift operator in the United States and Canada is expected to price its 18.8 M share IPO between $15-$17.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • RETA +8.7%, CIR +7%, AVAV +6.5%, VRNA +3.3%, CMRX +3.2%, KEN +3%, GB +2.7%, MSGE +2.5%, PRIM +1.4%, EAR +1%, BA +0.8%, SPR +0.8%, GD +0.6%


  • Gapping down:

  • ASTS -24.5%, AXSM -7.6%, NVDA -3.9%, AMD -3.3%, EXK -1.8%, LQDA -1.5%, IGT -1.4%, JEF -1.4%, GPI -1%, MU -1%, DKNG -1%, INTC -0.9%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Boise Cascade (BCC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $100

  • Community Bank (CBU) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group

  • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $82

  • NNN REIT (NNN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney; tgt $48


  • Downgrades:

  • American Equity Investment Life (AEL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James

  • Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $47

  • Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities

  • Uber (UBER) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Daiwa Securities; tgt raised to $51

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $34


  • Others:

  • Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $146

  • CME Group (CME) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $215

  • Coeur Mining (CDE) initiated with an Outperform at National Bank Financial; tgt $4.25

  • Extreme Networks (EXTR) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $35

  • Hecla Mining (HL) initiated with an Outperform at National Bank Financial; tgt $7.50

  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $123

  • MarketAxess (MKTX) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $310

  • Paycom Software (PAYC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Snowflake (SNOW) resumed with an Outperform at William Blair

  • SoundThinking (SSTI) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $31

  • Tradeweb Markets (TW) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $89

  • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $41


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for June 24 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 0.5%)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods for May (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -$96.8B)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Retail Inventories for May (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 0.2%)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Wholesale Inventories for May (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -0.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for June 24 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -3.83 M

Earnings:

  • Monday (Jun 26)

  • Morning: CCL


  • Tuesday (Jun 27)

  • Morning: KFY SCHN SNX WBA

  • Afternoon: AVAV JEF


  • Wednesday (Jun 28)

  • Morning: GIS UNF

  • Afternoon: BB CNXC FUL MU WOR


  • Thursday (Jun 29)

  • Morning: AYI GBX LNN MKC MSM PAYX RAD SMPL

  • Afternoon: ACCD NKE PRGS SGH


  • Friday (Jun 30)

  • Morning: STZ


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +2.0%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note. The Chinese yuan faced continued pressure despite yesterday's intervention, falling to a fresh seven-month low against the dollar. Separately, there were ongoing concerns that the Bank of Japan will also intervene to slow the yen's fall against the dollar. China's National Bureau of Statistics noted that industrial profits are being reduced by insufficient demand. Australia's CPI grew at its slowest level since April 2022 in the reading for May.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June Industrial Profit -18.8% YTD (last -20.6%)

  • South Korea's June Consumer Confidence 100.7 (expected 96.4; last 98.0)

  • Australia's May CPI 5.6% yr/yr (expected 6.1%; last 6.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +2.0%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH

  • India's Sensex: +0.8%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.7%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 144.06

  • USD/CNH: +0.5% to 7.2557

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.03

Europe: DAX +0.9%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.9%

Major European indices trade in positive territory. Germany's GFK Consumer Climate survey recorded its first monthly decrease since falling to a record low in October with concerns about recession fueling the fall. There were some reports suggesting that the European Central Bank could accelerate the pace of its asset sales. Italy's Prime Minister Meloni confirmed yesterday's reports that Fabio Panetta will replace Ignazio Visco as the governor of the Bank of Italy. She also expressed concerns about additional rate hikes from the ECB.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's May Private Sector Loans 2.1% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 2.5%) and loans to nonfinancials 4.0% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 4.6%)

  • Germany's July GfK Consumer Climate -25.4 (expected -23.0; last -24.4)

  • France's June Consumer Confidence 85 (expected 84; last 83)

  • Italy's June CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 6.4% yr/yr (expected 6.8%; last 7.6%). May PPI -2.3% m/m (expected -6.2%; last -4.8%); -4.3% yr/yr (expected -9.4%; last -1.5%). April Industrial Sales -1.8% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.4%); -1.8% yr/yr (expected 11.3%; last 4.2%)

  • Spain's May Retail Sales 6.0% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 5.7%)

  • Swiss June ZEW Expectations -30.8 (expected -32.3; last -32.2)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.9%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.9%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.8%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0947

  • GBP/USD: -0.4% to 1.2690

  • USD/CHF: +0.4% to 0.8967

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