27/10/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 79 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 71 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Equity futures indicate a somewhat mixed open in front of the September Personal Income and Spending report at 8:30 a.m. ET, which contains the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Big pre-open gains in Amazon.com(AMZN) and Intel (INTC) have boosted futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Amazon beat earnings and revenue estimates and said it is seeing the pace and volume of AWS deals pick up. Intel beat estimates and issued above-consensus guidance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, though, is poised to open lower, held back in part by weakness in Chevron (CVX) following its earnings miss this morning. 

Separately, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is modestly higher in pre-open action after reporting worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, but raising its quarterly dividend to $0.95/share from $0.91/share.

WTI crude oil futures are up 1.5% to $84.44/bbl, reflecting some geopolitical angst following reports the US carried out airstrikes against Iranian backed targets in Syria, according to The New York Times.

The 2-yr note yield is one basis point to 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.87%.

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Amazon.com(AMZN 127.69, +8.15, +6.8%):  beats by $0.35, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus; Seeing the pace and volume of AWS deals pick up

• Intel (INTC 34.91, +2.39, +7.4%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs, non-GAAP gross margin of 45.8% vs. guidance of 43.0%; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Exxon Mobil (XOM 108.01, +0.41, +0.4%): misses by $0.10, misses on revs; Raises quarterly dividend to $0.95/share from $0.91/share.

• Chevron (CVX 151.33, -3.42, -2.2%): misses by $0.65, beats on revs

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1875.00, +68.53, +3.8%): beats by $0.81, reports revs in-line, comps of +5.0%; expects Q4 comps in the mid to high-single digit range; Transaction trends remaining positive in October

• Capital One (COF 94.21, +4.70, +5.3%): beats by $1.21, beats on revs

• Enphase Energy (ENPH 77.56, -18.62, -19.4%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs sharply below consensus, citing high inventory at distribution partners and softening demand in key markets

• Ford Motor (F 10.93, -0.42, -3.7%): misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line; withdraws FY23 guidance

• Dexcom (DXCM 95.07, +13.98, +17.2%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus; announces buyback

• Deckers Outdoor (DECK 534.30, +49.72, +10.3%): beats by $2.39, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 80.00, +2.77, +3.6%): beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

• Colgate-Palmolive (CL 73.87, +0.79, +1.1%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM 139.19, -1.57, -1.1%): CEO Jamie Dimon confirmed today that he and his family plan to sell a portion of their holdings. Starting in 2024 they currently intend to sell 1 million shares, subject to the terms of a stock trading plan.

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.3% (-0.9% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.1% (+1.3% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +1.0% (+1.2% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.0% (-2.5% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +0.2% (-3.0% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2% (-1.1% for the week).

• In economic data:

• China's September Industrial Profit -9.0% YTD (last -11.7%)

• Japan's October Tokyo CPI 3.3% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 2.8%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.5%)

• Singapore's Q3 URA Property Index 0.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; last -0.2%)

• Australia's Q3 PPI 1.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%); 3.8% yr/yr (last 3.9%)

• In news:

• China Securities Journal speculated that the People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 to offset higher government bond issuance.

• The People's Bank of China confirmed that it held its first meeting with a U.S. financial working group.

• Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that there is renewed risk of deflation in Japan as wage growth is being outpaced by inflation.

• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 6.50%, hinting at another potential hike in November.

• Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note with France's CAC (-1.0%) lagging amid weakness in drugmaker Sanofi after the company scrapped its profit margin target for 2025. STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% (-0.3% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.2% (-0.3% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (-0.8% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -1.0% (+0.1% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2% (+0.4% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH (-0.7% week-to-date).

• In economic data:

• France's October Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 83; last 83)

• Italy's October Business Confidence 96.0, as expected (last 96.4) and Consumer Confidence 101.6 (expected 105.2; last 105.4). August Industrial Sales -0.4% m/m (last -0.5%); -5.0% yr/yr (last -1.7%)

• Spain's Q3 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 2.0%). September Retail Sales 6.5% yr/yr (last 7.1%)

• In news:

• Appliance maker Electrolux missed quarterly estimates, issued soft guidance for Q4, and announced a cost reduction plan.

• Goldman Sachs expects that the European Central Bank reached its peak rate and will begin cutting rates in Q3 of 2024.

• European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that the economy will determine how long rates stay at their peak while policymaker Vasle said that the current rate level is enough to slow inflation.

U.S. equity futures:

• S&P 500 Futures +6 @ 4,143

• DJIA Futures: -89 @ 32,696

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: +98 @ 14,199

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -1.0%

• Asia: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.0%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +1.29 @ 84.50

• Nat Gas +0.129 @ 3.606

• Gold -5.20 @ 1992.20

• Silver -0.025 @ 22.883

• Copper +0.0363 @ 3.6208

Earnings/Guidance:

• AbbVie (ABBV) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus; sees FY24 EPS below consensus

• ACM Research (ACMR) sees Q3 revs below consensus

• Adtalem Global Education (ATGE) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line

• AerCap (AER) beats by $0.44, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS below consensus

• AllianceBernstein (AB) beats by $0.03, beats on revs (two ests)

• Amazon (AMZN) beats by $0.35, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

• Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) beats by $0.03

• Aon (AON) beats by $0.11, beats on revs

• AppFolio (APPF) beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

• ArcBest (ARCB) beats by $0.82, reports revs in-line

• Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) beats by $0.05, beats on revs

• AutoNation (AN) beats by $0.05, beats on revs

• Avantor (AVTR) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line

• Axos Financial (AX) beats by $0.03

• Balchem (BCPC) beats by $0.07, misses on revs

• Barnes Group (B) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus

• Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) misses by $0.45, misses on revs, expects FY23 revenue to decline by about 3.5% on currency-neutral basis

• BJ Restaurants (BJRI) misses by $0.15, misses on revs; comps +0.4%

• Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) misses by $0.04, beats on revs; raises outlook

• Boston Beer Co (SAM) misses by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

• Business First Bancshares (BFST) beats by $0.10, beats on revs

• Camden Property (CPT) reports core FFO in-line, revs in-line; guides Q4 core FFO below consensus

• Capital One (COF) beats by $1.21, beats on revs

• Carlisle Cos (CSL) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line

• Carter's (CRI) beats by $0.30; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance; narrows FY23 revenue guidance

• CBRE Group (CBRE) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; lowers outlook

• Charter Comm (CHTR) beats by $0.19, reports revs in-line

• Chart Industries (GTLS) misses by $0.20, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, lowers FY23 revs below consensus

• Chemours (CC) misses by $0.06, misses on revs

• Chevron (CVX) misses by $0.65, beats on revs

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beats by $0.81, reports revs in-line, comps of +5.0%; expects Q4 comps in the mid to high-single digit range

• Cincinnati Fincl (CINF) beats by $0.51, misses on revs

• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

• Columbia Sportswear (COLM) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS outlook, lowers revs

• Comfort Systems (FIX) beats by $0.61, beats on revs

• COPT Defense Properties (CDP) beats by $0.33, beats on revs; narrows FY23 FFO guidance

• Coursera (COUR) misses by $0.14, beats on revs; raises FY23 revs outlook

• Cousins Prop (CUZ) reports FFO in-line, revs in-line

• Customers Bancorp (CUBI) reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs

• Dana Inc (DAN) beats by $0.17, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

• Darling Ingredients (DAR) releases statement on 2023 and 2024 outlook; expect FY23 adjusted EBITDA of $1.6-1.7 bln; to carry good momentum into 2024

• Deckers Outdoor (DECK) beats by $2.39, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Dexcom (DXCM) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus; announces buyback

• Digital Realty Trust (DLR) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 FFO in-line, revs above consensus

• Dril-Quip (DRQ) reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

• Eastman Chemical (EMN) beats by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus

• Eldorado Gold (EGO) beats by $0.13, misses on revs; FY23 gold production to be 475,000 to 495,000 ounces

• Elme Communities (ELME) reports FFO in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 FFO in-line; authorizes up to $50 mln for repurchases

• Encompass Health (EHC) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs sharply below consensus

• Equinor (EQNR) reports Q3 earnings, beats on revs

• Essex Property (ESS) beats by $0.02; guides Q4 FFO in-line; guides FY23 FFO in-line

• EVERTEC (EVTC) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Exponent (EXPO) misses by $0.01, beats on revs

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) misses by $0.10, misses on revs; Raises quarterly dividend to $0.95/share from $0.91/share

• Federated Hermes (FHI) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; authorizes new share repurchase program

• FirstEnergy (FE) beats by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

• Ford Motor (F) misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line; withdraws FY23 guidance

• Fortis (FTS) beats by $0.24

• Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) reports FFO in-line, beats on revs; guides FY23 FFO in-line

• Hartford Financial (HIG) beats by $0.32, reports revs in-line

• Houlihan Lokey (HLI) beats by $0.08, beats on revs

• Hub Group (HUBG) reports Q3 (Sep) results, revs in-line; guides FY23 revs below consensus; 2-for-1 split announced; initiates dividend and new $250 mln share repurchase plan

• Intel (INTC) beats by $0.19, beats on revs, non-GAAP gross margin of 45.8% vs. guidance of 43.0%; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Juniper Networks (JNPR) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line

• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) beats by $0.47, beats on revs

• L3Harris (LHX) beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

• Lincoln Electric (LECO) beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line

• LPL Financial (LPLA) beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line

• LTC Properties (LTC) beats by $0.01, beats on revs

• LyondellBasell (LYB) beats by $0.43, beats on revs

• McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) beats by $0.40, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above two analyst estimate

• Merit Medical (MMSI) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Mitek Systems (MITK) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

• Mohawk (MHK) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus

• NatWest Group plc (NWG) reports Q3 results; provides outlook

• NerdWallet (NRDS) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; approves $30 mln for repurchases

• Newell Brands (NWL) beats by $0.16, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

• New Relic (NEWR) beats by $0.12, misses on revs

• Nomura Holdings (NMR) reports Q3 results; beats on revs

• NOV Inc. (NOV) misses by $0.06, beats on revs; to consolidate operating structure from three reporting segments to two

• nVent Electric (NVT) beats by $0.11, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

• Oil States (OIS) beats by $0.03, beats on revs

• Olin (OLN) beats by $0.07, misses on revs

• Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 FFO below consensus

• PennyMac (PFSI) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line

• Petrobras (PBR) reports Q3 production

• Phillips 66 (PSX) misses by $0.19

• PNM Resources (PNM) beats by $0.16; guides FY23 EPS above consensus

• Portland Gen Elec (POR) misses by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus

• Principal Fincl (PFG) beats by $0.10; raises dividend $0.02 to $0.67/share

• Provident Finl (PFS) reports EPS in-line, total loan portfolio increased 5.2%

• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) misses by $0.70, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs mostly above consensus

• Republic Services (RSG) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus; authorizes new buyback

• ResMed (RMD) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line

• Saia (SAIA) beats by $0.05, beats on revs

• Sanofi (SNY) reports Q3 (Sep) results, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

• Seacoast Banking (SBCF) beats by $0.06, misses on revs

• Skechers USA (SKX) beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

• SkyWest (SKYW) beats by $0.15, beats on revs

• South State (SSB) misses by $0.01

• SPS Commerce (SPSC) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS, revs guidance

• SS&C Techs (SSNC) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

• STAG Industrial (STAG) beats by $0.02, beats on revs

• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

• Stellar Bank (STEL) beats by $0.01, net interest income decreased 1.4%

• Terex (TEX) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS and revenue guidance

• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) misses by $0.11, reports revs in-line

• The Bancorp (TBBK) reports Q3 EPS of $0.92; increasing planned buyback in 2024

• T. Rowe Price (TROW) beats by $0.39, beats on revs

• UDR (UDR) reports FFO in-line, revs in-line; guides Q4 FFO below consensus

• U.S. Steel (X) beats by $0.28, reports revs in-line

• Vale S.A. (VALE) reports Q3 results

• VeriSign (VRSN) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line

• Weyerhaeuser (WY) misses by $0.02, misses on revs

• WisdomTree (WT) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs

• Xcel Energy (XEL) misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line

News:

• US carried out airstrikes against Iranian backed targets in Syria, according to the New York Times

• 10x Genomics (TXG): Study fueled by Xenium Analysis sheds light on resistance mechanisms in model of lethal pediatric brain tumors

• AC Immune (ACIU) Clinical Data Published in Nature Communications Show Alpha-Synuclein PET Tracer ACI-12589 Has Potential as Neurodegenerative Disease Diagnostic

• Alliant Energy (LNT) CEO John Larsen to become executive Chairman, Lisa Barton named CEO effective Jan 1

• Apple (AAPL) could face watch import ban following trade agency ruling in case involving Masimo (MASI), according to the Wall Street Journal

• Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) appoints Thomas Gallagher as President and Patrick Gallagher as COO, effective Jan 1

• Boise Cascade (BCC) declares a special dividend of $5.00/share paid on December 15, to stockholders of record on December 1

• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) increases share repurchase authorization by $250 million

• Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) initiates MONARCH, a Phase 2b trial of its proprietary selective cortisol modulator miricorilant in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

• Eli Lilly (LLY) receives FDA approval for Omvoh

• Embraer SA (ERJ): SkyWest (SKYW) orders 19 Embraer E175 aircraft valued at $1.1 bln, according to Aviation Source News

• ESSA Pharma (EPIX) presents updated Phase 1 Masofaniten (EPI-7386) clinical data at the 30th Annual Prostate Cancer Foundation Scientific Retreat

• General Motors's (GM) Cruise "decided to proactively pause driverless operations across all of our fleets while we take time to examine our processes, systems, and tools and reflect on how we can better operate in a way that will earn public trust"

• Google (GOOG): Elon Musk wants to create new X products to challenge YouTube (GOOG) and LinkedIn (MSFT), according to Bloomberg

• ImmunoGen (IMGN) announces European Medicines Agency Acceptance of Marketing Authorization Application for mirvetuximab soravtansine (ELAHERE) in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Chairman & CEO Jamie Dimon confirmed today that he and his family plan to sell a portion of their holdings

• Kennametal (KMT) names William Lambert as Chairman of the Board effective Nov 1

• loanDepot (LDI) amended and restated master repurchase agreement with Bank of America

• Masimo (MASI) announces USITC issues exclusion order for infringing Apple Watches, finding that Apple Violated U.S. trade laws

• NatWest Group plc (NWG): UK FCA statement regarding NatWest Group; report has highlighted potential regulatory breaches and a number of areas for improvement

• NatWest Group plc (NWG) provides key findings from Phase 1 of Travers Smith review

• Norfolk Southern (NSC) announces soil excavation is set to be completed in East Palestine, Ohio, marking a significant environmental remediation milestone

• Polaris Industries (PII) announces $1 billion share repurchase authorization

• Prime Medicine (PRME) Presents First-ever Prime Editing Data in Non-human Primates Demonstrating Highly Efficient Ability of Prime Editors to Precisely Correct Disease-causing Mutation of GSD1b

• Roche Hldg (RHHBY) receives FDA approval for Vabysmo

• Rockwell Automation (ROK) increases quarterly dividend to $1.25/share from $1.18/share

• Sanofi (SNY) enters next chapter of "Play to Win Strategy"

• Suzano S.A. (SUZ) to invest R$1.66 bln in new tissue paper mill, expanding fluff pulp capacity and new biomass boiler

• Target (TGT) Kicks Off the Biggest Savings of the Holiday Season with Early Black Friday Deals, Starting Oct. 29

• Triumph Group (TGI) and Honeywell (HON) Aerospace signed a long term agreement across multiple Honeywell engine platforms

M&A:

• Apollo Global Management (APO) announces the signing of an agreement for Apollo-managed affiliated entities, funds and clients to invest up to 1.5 bln into an Air France-KLM operating affiliate holding the trademark and most of the commercial partners contracts related to Air France and KLM's joint loyalty program

• Chart Industries (GTLS) divests American Fan to Fairbanks Morse Defense for an all-cash purchase price of $111 million yesterday

• Old National Bancorp (ONB) and CapStar Financial Holdings (CSTR) have entered into a definitive merger agreement for Old National to acquire CapStar in an all-stock transaction

• Sculptor Capital (SCU): Rithm Capital (RITM) enters into amended merger agreement to acquire Sculptor Capital Management For $12.70 Per Sculptor Class A Share

• Siemens AG (SIEGY): UK CMA is investigating the anticipated acquisition by SIEGY of Chargeco Topholding

• SolarWinds (SWI) exploring potential sale, according to Bloomberg

• Sunstone Hotel (SHO) completes the sale of the 1,060-room Boston Park Plaza for a gross sale price of $370 million, or approximately $350,000 per key

• W&T Offshore (WTI) terminated the Purchase Agreement with Cox Oil Offshore and Energy XXI, EPL Oil , M21K

• Whitestone REIT (WSR): Fortress is interested in takeover of WSR, according to Bloomberg

Syndicate:

• Acuity Brands (AYI) files mixed shelf securities offering

• Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) has raised $25 mln at-the-market from a life sciences-dedicated investor

IPOs:

• No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

• Gapping up:

• DXCM +17.2%, COUR +16.3%, SWI +11.5%, CUBI +9.7%, EVTC +9.6%, MASI +9.5%, DECK+9.4%, MGRC +8.6%, FIX +8.1%, APPF+7.7%, NRDS +7.2%, INTC +7.2%, JNPR+6.6%, TBBK +6.1%, AMZN +6%, MMSI+5.5%, COF +5.4%, MTX +5.3%, BFST +5.1%, AVTR +5%, GRPN +4.9%, CPT +4.6%, CMG+4.1%, SKX +3.8%, ATGE +3.4%, CBOE+3.3%, MITK +3%, EQNR +2.7%, SWK +2.7%, ERIE +2.6%, EMN +2.3%, CDP +2%, MHK+2%, TARO +2%, CUZ +1.9%, DAR +1.8%, PII+1.7%, APO +1.4%, SHO +1.3%, EHC +1.3%, GLUE +1.2%, LTC +1.2%, WSR +1%

• Gapping down:

• PTCT -22%, ENPH -21.4%, SNY -16.7%, NWG -11%, BIO -8.8%, SBCF -5.7%, OLN-5.5%, ELME -4.6%, EXPO -4.6%, HUBG-4.3%, CC -4.1%, BJRI -4.1%, PEB -3.2%, F-3.1%, COLM -3%, AX -2.2%, ESS -2.2%, TEX-2.1%, MCBC -2%, SAM -1.9%, XEL -1.9%, CSTR -1.8%, CVX -1.6%, NOV -1.5%, ROG-1.2%, STAG -1.1%, NMR -1.1%, ONB -1%, FTS -1%

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

• Upgrades

• Adtalem Global Education (ATGE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $55

• EastGroup (EGP) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $180

• Merck (MRK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $132

• Old Dominion (ODFL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt $416

• Origin Bancorp (OBK) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $33

• ResMed (RMD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $169

• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $29

• Downgrades:

• Datadog (DDOG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $95

• Dow (DOW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

• Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $5

• Hershey Foods (HSY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $200

• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $17

• Southwest Air (LUV) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $20

• The Shyft Group (SHYF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

• Others:

• Griffon (GFF) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $65

Econ Data:

• 08:30 ET: Personal Income for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.4%; Prior 0.4%)

• 08:30 ET: Personal Spending for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.5%; Prior 0.4%)

• 08:30 ET: PCE Prices for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.3%; Prior 0.4%)

• 08:30 ET: PCE Prices - Core for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.3%; Prior 0.1%)

• 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Sentiment - Final for Oct (Briefing.comConsensus 63.1; Prior 63.0)

Earnings:

• Monday (Oct 23)

• Morning:  BOH HOPE PHG

• Afternoon: AGYS ARE BRO CADE CDNS CALX CATY CLF CR CCK HSTM HXL IBTX MEDP PKG RLI SSD AAN TBI WRB WSFS

• Tuesday (Oct 24)

• Morning: MMM HOUS ADM ARCC AWI ABG BANC BCS CNC KO CBU GLW DHR DOV DOW FI FELE GATX GE GM HAL HCA HRI ITW IVZ KMB EDU NEE NEP NVS NUE ONB PCAR PPBI PACW PNR PII PHM DGX RTX SASR SHW SFNC SMPL SPOT SYF TECK TRU VZ XRX

• Afternoon:  GOOG NTB BYD BDN CNI CHX CB CSGP EGP WIRE ENVA FFIV FCF FFBC HA HIW JBT MANH MTDR MSFT MSA NBHC RRC RNST ROIC RHI SNAP LRN TDOC TXN TRMK UMBF VBTX VICR V WM

• Wednesday (Oct 25)

• Morning:  ALKS APH ADP AVY BXMT BA BOKF CME CNX CSTM EVR FTV GD GBX GPI HCSG HES HESM HLT IART LKFN LTH LAD MKTX MNRO MCO COOP MSM NAVI NSC ODFL OMF OPCH OTIS OC PAG PRG PB RDUS ROP RES R SLGN SF TMUS TMHC TDY TMO TNL UMC VRT WNC WAB WFRD

• Afternoon:  AEM ALGN ALSN AMP AM AR ATR ASGN AVB AGR BKR BHE CACI CCS CHE CHDN CYH CNMD CVBF EW ESI EIG EPR EQT EQIX ETD EG FIBK FLEX FLS FBIN FTAI GL GSHD GGG IBM ICLR IEX IMAX PI INVH KALU KRC KLAC LSTR LC LXFR MAT MXL META MAA MOH MYRG NTGR NXT ORLY OII CASH PEGA PPC PLXS QS RJF ROL SLM SEIC NOW STC SUI NOVA TER TNET TROX UCTT URI UHS VMI VLTO VICI VKTX WSBC WU WHR WH

• Thursday (Oct 26)

• Morning: AOS MO AMT AIT ARCH AMBP BPMC BSX BFH BMY BC BG CRS CARR CBZ CNP CMS CTS CFR EXP EME EXLS XPRO FAF FCFS ULCC FCN THRM GWW HEES HOG HAS HSY HTZ HON INSM IP ITGR KVUE KDP KIM KEX LH LAZ LEA LII LIN LKQ MAS MA MDC MPW MRK MBLY NYCB NEM NOC NVCR OSIS OSTK PATK BTU PCG BPOP RS RITM RCL STX SAH SBSI LUV STM FTI TXT SHYF TSCO TW TPH TRS UPS VLO VLY VC VMC WST WEX WTW

• Afternoon:  ATGE AB AMZN ABCB APPF AJG AX BIO BJRI SAM CPT COF CSL CC CMG CINF COLM CDP COUR CUZ CUBI DECK DXCM DLR EMN ELME EHC ENPH ESS EVTC EXPO FHI FE F GLPI HIG HUBG INTC JNPR KNSL LHX LPLA LTC MGRC MMSI MTX MHK NRDS NOV OLN PEB PFSI PFG PFS PTCT RSG RMD SKX SKYW SSB SPSC SSNC STAG TEX TXRH X UDR VRSN WY

• Friday (Oct 27)  

• Morning:  ABBV AER AON ARCB AN AVTR BCPC B BAH CBRE GTLS CHTR CVX CL DAN XOM FHB GNTX IMO LECO LYB NWL NVT OIS PSX PIPR PNM POR SAIA SNY SWK STEL TROW WT XEL

• Afternoon:  ACMR

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.0%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. China Securities Journal speculated that the People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 to offset higher government bond issuance. The People's Bank of China confirmed that it held its first meeting with a U.S. financial working group. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that there is renewed risk of deflation in Japan as wage growth is being outpaced by inflation. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 6.50%, hinting at another potential hike in November.

• In economic data:

• China's September Industrial Profit -9.0% YTD (last -11.7%)

• Japan's October Tokyo CPI 3.3% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 2.8%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.5%)

• Singapore's Q3 URA Property Index 0.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; last -0.2%)

• Australia's Q3 PPI 1.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%); 3.8% yr/yr (last 3.9%)

---Equity Markets--- 

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.3% (-0.9% for the week)

• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.1% (+1.3% for the week)

• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.0% (+1.2% for the week)

• India's Sensex: +1.0% (-2.5% for the week)

• South Korea's Kospi: +0.2% (-3.0% for the week)

• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2% (-1.1%for the week)

---FX---

• USD/JPY: -0.2% to 150.03

• USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.3277

• USD/INR: UNCH at 83.19

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -1.0%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note with France's CAC (-1.0%) lagging amid weakness in drugmaker Sanofi after the company scrapped its profit margin target for 2025. Appliance maker Electrolux missed quarterly estimates, issued soft guidance for Q4, and announced a cost reduction plan. Goldman Sachs expects that the European Central Bank reached its peak rate and will begin cutting rates in Q3 of 2024. European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that the economy will determine how long rates stay at their peak while policymaker Vasle said that the current rate level is enough to slow inflation.

• In economic data:

• France's October Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 83; last 83)

• Italy's October Business Confidence 96.0, as expected (last 96.4) and Consumer Confidence 101.6 (expected 105.2; last 105.4). August Industrial Sales -0.4% m/m (last -0.5%); -5.0% yr/yr (last -1.7%)

• Spain's Q3 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 2.0%). September Retail Sales 6.5% yr/yr (last 7.1%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% (-0.3% week-to-date)

• Germany's DAX: +0.2% (-0.3% week-to-date)

• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (-0.8% week-to-date)

• France's CAC 40: -1.0% (+0.1% week-to-date)

• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2% (+0.4% week-to-date)

• Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH (-0.7% week-to-date)

---FX---

• EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0548

• GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2118

• USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.9016