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26/08/22 Briefing




The S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Futures are weaker amid nervousness that the moment participants have been waiting for all week is at hand. The July PCE Price Index is out at 8:30 a.m. ETfollowed by Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole symposium speech at 10:00 a.m. ET.  

Commodity prices are on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $93.66/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.7% to $9.51/mmbtu. Copper futures are up 1.8% to $3.76/lb.

The Treasury market is mixed this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.38% while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.07%. 

At 8:30 a.m. ETmarket participants will receive the July PCE Price Index (Briefing.comconsensus 0.1%; prior 1.0%) and core PCE Price Index (Briefing.comconsensus 0.3%; prior 0.6%) included in the Personal Income (Briefing.comconsensus 0.6%; prior 0.6%) and Spending Report (Briefing.comconsensus 0.4%; prior 1.1%). July Advanced Intl. Trade in Goods (prior -$98.2B), Advanced Retail Inventories (prior 2.0%), and Advanced Wholesale Inventories (prior 1.9%) are out at the same time. The August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading (Briefing.comconsensus 55.1; prior 55.1) is out at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In news:

  • Affirm (AFRM 27.07, -4.16, -13.32%): reports Q4 (Jun) results, beats on revs, GMV increased 77% yr/yr; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • Gap (GPS 10.66, +0.65, +6.49%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line, comps of -10%; withdraws prior FY23 guidance

  • Dell (DELL 45.26, -2.64, -5.51%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; notes demand environment has slowed as macro dynamics have become more challenging

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA 434.35, +15.10, +3.60%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs, comps of +14.4%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises FY23 comp guidance

  • Workday (WDAY 181.00, +18.64, +11.48%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 subscription revs; reaffirms FY23 revenue guidance

  • Domo (DOMO 24.06, -4.61, -16.08%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Seagen (SGEN 147.53, -16.84, -10.25%): Merck (MRK) discussions to acquire Seagen (SGEN) hit a roadblock over price, according to Bloomberg.

  • Elastic (ESTC 81.00, -3.98, -4.68%):  beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; also names AWS exec as chief product officer

  • Marvell (MRVL 53.35, -1.74, -3.16%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Electronic Arts (EA 145.50, +17.89, +14.02%): moving on For The Win USA Today report that Amazon (AMZN) is interested in acquiring the company

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6% (-1.0% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.0% (+2.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (-0.7% for the week), India's Sensex: +0.1% (-1.4% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +0.2% (-0.5% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7% (-0.2% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's August Tokyo CPI 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.5%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.3%)

  • Singapore's July Industrial Production -2.3% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -8.0%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 2.6%)

  • In news:

  • Japan's Core CPI increased at its fastest pace since late 2014 in the August reading.

  • South Korea's vice finance minister said that risks stemming from higher rates will be reviewed.

  • Wealth management firms in China were ordered to strengthen internal controls.

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr said that at least a couple more rate hikes will be made and that the central bank is not projecting a technical recession at this time.

  • Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.'s FTSE (unch) outperforms, hovering just above its flat line. STOXX Europe 600: -0.4% (-1.4% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.4% (-2.4% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH (-0.9% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.4% (-2.1% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.9% (-1.2% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (-2.1% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Private Sector Loans 4.5% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; last 4.6%)

  • Germany's September GfK Consumer Climate -36.5 (expected -31.8; last -30.9)

  • France's August Consumer Confidence 82 (expected 79; last 80)

  • Italy's August Business Confidence 104.3 (expected 104.4; last 106.4) and Consumer Confidence 98.3 (expected 92.5; last 94.8)

  • In news:

  • British energy regulator announced that the energy price cap will be nearly doubled from October 1for the next three months. The cap is expected to be increased again in early 2023.

  • Germany's economy minister echoed the sentiment, saying that energy prices are expected to increase sharply in the winter.

  • Germany's GfK Consumer Climate fell to a record low in the September reading.

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -11 @ 4,180

  • DJIA Futures: -52 @ 32,240

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -52 @ 13,092

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.4%, FTSE UNCH, CAC -0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.03 @ 93.55

  • Nat Gas  +0.161 @ 9.536

  • Gold -14.45 @ 1756.95

  • Silver -0.025  @ 19.095

  • Copper +0.0630 @ 3.7620

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance:

  • Affirm (AFRM) reports Q4 (Jun) results, beats on revs, GMV increased 77% yr/yr; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • Dell (DELL) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line

  • Domo (DOMO) beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Elastic (ESTC) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; also names AWS exec as chief product officer

  • Farfetch (FTCH) beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Gap (GPS) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line, comps of -10%; withdraws prior FY23guidance

  • JinkoSolar (JKS) reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs

  • Marvell (MRVL) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Sumo Logic (SUMO) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) beats by $0.71, beats on revs, comps of +14.4%; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises FY23comp guidance

  • VMware (VMW) beats by $0.06, beats on revs

  • Workday (WDAY) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23subscription revs

  • General News:

  • Fed watchers expect a tougher version of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's inflation fighting message today at 10:00 ET, according to CNBC

  • Most of southern Ukraine lost power after the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was disconnected from grid, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • California Air Resources Board votes to ban new sales of gasoline powered cars by 2035

  • UK Ofgem announces the energy price cap will increase to GBP 3,549 per year for dual fuel for an average household from 1 October 2022

  • US approves sale of military helicopters to Australia for approximately $1.95 bln, according to Reuters

  • 89bio (ETNB) presents positive results from Entrigue phase 2 trial of pegozafermin in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia at European Society of Cardiology Congress 2022

  • Allison Transmission (ALSN) awarded $6.55 mln U.S. Army contract to deliver an electric hybrid sub-system in the company's Next-Gen Electrified Transmission for armored combat vehicles

  • Applied Blockchain (APLD) expects to have three data centers operating by 1H23, representing nearly 500 megawatts of total hosting capacity

  • ATRION (ATRI) names Cindy Ferguson as its next CFO after Jeffery Strickland retires in March 2023

  • Benefitfocus (BNFT) announces that it has agreed to repurchase certain of its 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2023

  • BioCryst (BCRX) Presents Data Demonstrating >99 Percent Suppression of Alternative Pathway Complement Activity with BCX9930 in C3G Patients

  • Blackstone (BX): Single-family landlord to halt home purchases, according to Bloomberg

  • Chipotle (CMG) workers in Michigan vote to form a union, according to Reuters

  • Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) appoints Simon Campion as President and CEO, effective September 12, 2022

  • DoorDash (DASH) was hit by a data breach involving Twilio-linked hackers, according to TechCrunch

  • Hanesbrands (HBI) and University of Michigan announce multi-year extension of current apparel partnership; gives HBI exclusive rights to design, manufacture, distribute Wolverine fanwear

  • IDT Corp (IDTI): FCC completed its review of spectrum licenses included in IDT's 2013 spinoff of Straight Path Communications and does not plan to take further action in the matter

  • Itau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB) authorizes 75.0 mln share stock repurchase

  • Lam Research (LRCX) increases its quarterly dividend 15% to $1.725/share, payable October 5to holders of record on September 14

  • Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg says on Joe Rogan's podcast that Meta will launch virtual reality handset in October

  • Micron (MU) considering spending $160 bln on a new semiconductor factory in Texas, but wants tax breaks, according to Bloomberg

  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Receives Expanded Coverage in Japan for Use of BRACAnalysis Diagnostic System as a Companion Diagnostic for Lynparza in Early-Stage Breast Cancer

  • NIO Inc. (NIO) Announces Substantial Completion of Independent Internal Review

  • Novavax (NVAX): UK says Novavax COVID-19 vaccine approved for 12 to 17s by MHRA

  • Panasonic (PCRFY) aiming to build $4 bln EV battery plant in US, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Pembina Pipeline (PBA) appoints Cameron Goldade as CFO; appoints Henry Sykes as Board Chair, effective January 1, 2023

  • PROG Holdings (PRG) is deeply disappointed with decision by Pennsylvania Attorney General to file a complaint

  • T-Mobile US (TMUS) and SpaceX announces new plan to bring cell phone connectivity everywhere

  • Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) to Present Abstracts at the Society for the Study of Inborn Errors of Metabolism Annual Symposium

  • Zymergen (ZY) implements further employee reductions, terminating approximately 80 additional employees

  • M&A:

  • Electronic Arts (EA): Amazon (AMZN) is interested in acquiring the company, according to For The Win USA Today

  • Everbridge (EVBG) considering sale, according to Bloomberg

  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is looking for further deals after ending discussions with Bang Energy, possible target includes C4 Energy, according to Axios

  • Merck (MRK) discussions to acquire Seagen (SGEN) hit a roadblock over price, according to Bloomberg

  • Micro Focus (MFGP) to be acquired by OpenText at a price of 532 pence per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately $6.0 billion

  • Syndicate

  • Danimer Scientific (DNMR) files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MFGP +93.9%, FTCH +15.2%, ETNB +10.6%, WDAY+10.4%, GPS +8%, APLD +7.8%, ULTA +3%, ALSN+2.1%, XRAY +2%, BBBY +1.4%, TMUS +1.3%, PRG+0.9%, HBI +0.9%, ITUB +0.8%, PBA +0.7%

  • Gapping down:

  • DOMO -16.1%, AFRM -13.4%, DNMR -7.8%, OTEX-6.4%, ESTC -5.3%, TVTX -5%, DELL -4.3%, MRVL-3.4%, SUMO -2.3%, NIO -1.5%, LRCX -0.8%, MYGN-0.6%, DASH -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • FactSet (FDS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $507

  • First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $141

  • Hibbett (HIBB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $75

  • VTEX (VTEX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $6.50

  • Downgrades:

  • AltaGas (ATGFF) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse

  • Arco Platform (ARCE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $18

  • Centene (CNC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $99

  • Comp Siderurgica (SID) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • GDS Holdings (GDS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $33

  • Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • Open Text (OTEX) downgraded to Neutral from Sector Outperform at CIBC

  • Ternium S.A. (TX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $40

  • Union Pacific (UNP) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Daiwa Securities; tgt raised to $242

  • Woolworths Ltd. (WOLWF) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

  • Others:

  • Altra Industrial Motion (AIMC) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $58

  • Burlington Stores (BURL) resumed with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Byline Bancorp (BY) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Raymond James

  • Despegar.com(DESP) assumed with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $12

  • Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $10

  • Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair

  • Middleby (MIDD) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $190

  • MindMed (MNMD) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $3.50

  • Patrick Industries (PATK) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $65

  • Verona Pharma (VRNA) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $31

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Personal Income for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus 0.6%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: Personal Spending for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus 0.4%; Prior 1.1%)

  • 08:30 ET: PCE Prices for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus 0.1%; Prior 1.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: PCE Prices - Core for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus 0.3%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Intl Trade in Goods for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -$98.2 bln)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Retail Inventories for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 2.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Adv. Wholesale Inventories for Jul (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.9%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final for Aug (Briefing.comConsensus 55.1; Prior 55.1)

  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Aug 22)

  • Afternoon: DLO NDSN PANW ZM

  • Tuesday (Aug 23)

  • Morning: BNS BZUN DKS DOLE GDS SJM JD BEKE M MDT

  • Afternoon:  AAP CAL INTU LZB JWN PYCR SCSC TOL URBN

  • Wednesday (Aug 24)

  • Morning:  EAT DY IIVI WOOF RY

  • Afternoon:  ADSK BOX GES NTAP NVDA CRM SNOW SPLK VSCO WSM ZUO

  • Thursday (Aug 25)

  • Morning: ANF BURL CM COTY DG DLTR FRO HAIN HIBB LANC MBUU PTON TITN TD

  • Afternoon:  AFRM DELL DOMO ESTC FTCH GPS MRVL SUMO ULTA VMW WDAY

  • Friday (Aug 26)  

  • Morning:  JKS

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Core CPI increased at its fastest pace since late 2014 in the August reading. South Korea's vice finance minister said that risks stemming from higher rates will be reviewed. Wealth management firms in China were ordered to strengthen internal controls. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr said that at least a couple more rate hikes will be made and that the central bank is not projecting a technical recession at this time.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's August Tokyo CPI 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.5%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.3%)

  • Singapore's July Industrial Production -2.3% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -8.0%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 2.6%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.6% (-1.0% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.0% (+2.0% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (-0.7% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +0.1% (-1.4% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.2% (-0.5% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7% (-0.2% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 136.91

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 6.8654

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 79.79

 

Europe: DAX -0.4%, FTSE UNCH, CAC -0.4%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.'s FTSE (unch) outperforms, hovering just above its flat line. British energy regulator announced that the energy price cap will be nearly doubled from October 1for the next three months. The cap is expected to be increased again in early 2023. Germany's economy minister echoed the sentiment, saying that energy prices are expected to increase sharply in the winter. Germany's GfK Consumer Climate fell to a record low in the September reading.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Private Sector Loans 4.5% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; last 4.6%)

  • Germany's September GfK Consumer Climate -36.5 (expected -31.8; last -30.9)

  • France's August Consumer Confidence 82 (expected 79; last 80)

  • Italy's August Business Confidence 104.3 (expected 104.4; last 106.4) and Consumer Confidence 98.3 (expected 92.5; last 94.8)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.4% (-1.4% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: -0.4% (-2.4% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH (-0.9% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.4% (-2.1% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.9% (-1.2% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (-2.1% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.0005

  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.1831

  • USD/CHF: UNCH at 0.9635


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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures