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25/09/23 Briefing



The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 36 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 58 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Equity futures indicate a lower start to the week following last week's retreat. The looming threat of a government shutdown has contributed to the negative bias, along with rising market rates. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 5.12% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.50%.

Another headwind for stocks is the news that China's troubled developer Evergrande announced that it cannot issue new debt and is scrapping a planned $35 billion debt restructuring.

In other news, Hollywood studios and the Writers Guild of America reached a tentative three-year deal, according to the LA Times. The UAW, meanwhile, announced progress in its negotiations, but no deal has been reached yet as its targeted strikes continue.

In corporate news:

  • Amazon.com(AMZN 129.89, +0.77, +0.6%): and Anthropic announce strategic collaboration to advance generative AI

  • Paramount Global (PARA 12.87, +0.23, +1.8%), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 11.33, +0.23, +2.1%), Walt Disney (DIS 81.50, +0.25, +0.3%), Netflix (NFLX 382.50, +2.69, +0.7%): Hollywood studios and Writers Guild of America reach tentative three-year deal, according to the LA Times

  • AstraZeneca (AZN 68.93, +1.10, +1.6%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Alcoa (AA 27.85, -0.50, -1.8%): announces Roy Harvey to step down as CEO; William Oplinger elected as replacement

  • Biogen (BIIB 259.85, +2.17, +0.8%): and Eisai receive approval for LEQEMBI Intravenous Infusion in Japan

  • Nike (NKE 89.52, -1.33, -1.5%): downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

  • Dow Inc. (DOW 51.04, +0.79, +1.6%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral 

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%, India's Sensex: UNCH, South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%.

  • In economic data:

  • Singapore's August CPI 0.9% m/m (last -0.2%); 4.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.1%). August Core CPI 3.4% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 3.8%)

  • In news:

  • China's troubled developer Evergrande returned to headlines, announcing that it cannot issue new debt and it is scrapping a planned $35 bln debt restructuring. In addition, one of the company's subsidiaries is being investigated.

  • Separately, shares of Country Garden were pressured after bondholders said that they did not receive a payment that was due a week ago.

  • A People's Bank of China official said that additional easing of policy is unlikely.

  • Australia may change its definition of full employment.

  • Major European indices trade in the red after Germany's ifo Business Climate Index weakened to 85.7 from 85.8 in the September reading. STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%, Germany's DAX: -0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.7%.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's September ifo Business Climate Index 85.7 (expected 85.2; last 85.8). September Current Assessment 88.7 (expected 88.0; last 89.0) and Business Expectations 82.9, as expected (last 82.7)

  • U.K.'s September CBI Distributive Trades Survey -14 (expected -33; last -44)

  • Spain's August PPI -10.0% yr/yr (last -8.6%)

  • In news:

  • Spain's PPI was down 10.0% yr/yr in August, contracting at a faster rate than what was seen at the height of coronavirus pandemic lockdowns.

  • European Central Bank policymakers Villeroy de Galhau, De Cos, and Kazaks spoke in favor of pausing rate hikes at the October meeting.

  • Italian banks will reportedly be exempt from paying the planned windfall tax if they increase their capital reserves.

  • The Bank of England will delay the implementation of global banking reforms by another six months.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +10 @ 4,340

  • DJIA Futures: +32 @ 34,102

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +61 @ 14,755

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.7%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.14 @ 89.89

  • Nat Gas -0.009 @ 2.870

  • Gold -1.85 @ 1943.75

  • Silver -0.007 @ 23.837

  • Copper -0.0242 @ 3.6718


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • No earnings news of note.

News:

  • Canadian auto workers ratify contract with Ford, according to Reuters

  • UAW announces progress in negotiations, but deal not done yet

  • Hollywood studios and Writers Guild of America reach tentative three-year deal

  • Sales of weight loss drugs impacting other medical devices and products, according to Barron's

  • 3M (MMM) is evaluating whether there are options to restart the idled PFAS manufacturing processes and other options to further accelerate the discontinuance of all PFAS manufacturing at its Zwijndrecht facility

  • Alcoa (AA) announces Roy Harvey to step down as CEO; William Oplinger elected as replacement

  • Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) expected to invest in Thailand, according to Reuters

  • Alvotech (ALVO) receives approval of AVT04 (ustekinumab), a Biosimilar to Stelara, in Japan

  • Amazon (AMZN) and Anthropic announce strategic collaboration to advance generative AI

  • Apellis (APLS) Receives Permanent J-Code (J2781) for SYFOVRE (pegcetacoplan injection), Effective October 1, 2023

  • Apple (AAPL) looking to quintuple production in India, according to Economic Times

  • Ardelyx (ARDX) receives approval for Tenapanor in Japan

  • Ascendis Pharma (ASND) presents results from long-term enliGHten Trial of TransCon hGH in pediatric growth hormone deficiency

  • AutoNation (AN) hires Jeff Parent as CFO, effective October 16

  • Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai receive approval for LEQEMBI Intravenous Infusion in Japan

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) intends to appeal EC decision to prohibit the company's acquisition of Etraveli Group

  • BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) entered into a securities purchase agreement with certain existing and new accredited investors to issue and sell an aggregate of 9,167,723 shares of its common stock

  • Cara Therapeutics (CARA) receives approval for KORSUVA IV injection in Japan

  • CareDx (CDNA): SEC has concluded its investigation as to the Company and does not intend to recommend an enforcement action by the SEC against the Company

  • Enovix () batteries chosen for FDA-approved accurate mini blood pressure monitor

  • ESS Inc. (GWH) and Honeywell (HON) to collaborate to accelerate commercial deployment of iron flow battery energy storage systems

  • Deutsche Bank (DB) hires investment banker from Barclays, according to Reuters

  • Fluor (FLR) subsidiary awarded $1.36 bln U.S. Navy contract modification

  • Ford Motor (F) and Unifor reach labor agreement

  • Ford Motor (F) issues response to UAW strike announcement

  • General Motors (GM) asking for volunteers among its salaried, non-union employees, to work at its parts distribution centers in the event of a strike, according to the Detroit Free Press

  • Genmab (GMAB) receives approval for EPKINLY in Japan

  • Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) and the Government of the Republic of Madagascar announce plans to develop new biosecurity capabilities

  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) receives approval for RSV vaccine in Japan

  • Goodyear Tire (GT) approves rationalization plan in Asia Pacific to improve profitability in its Australia and New Zealand operations; to improve operating income by approximately $50 mln in 2025

  • Hertz Global (HTZ) amended Friday the securitization platform for financing activities to affiliates' vehicle fleets in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and Italy

  • IdaCorp (IDA) increases its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $0.83/share

  • IMAX Corporation (IMAX) Responds to Letko's Statement on the Proposed Privatization of IMAX China

  • KBR (KBR) has been awarded an engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) contract by Woodside Energy (WDS), as operator for and on behalf of the Pluto Joint Venture

  • Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) names Josh Charlesworth as CEO effective Jan. 1, 2024

  • MarineMax (HZO) to expand superyacht services in Greece

  • Meta Platforms (META) launching AI chatbots, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • NCR Corporation (NCR) Announces Timing and Additional Details Regarding its Previously Announced Separation

  • Novartis (NVS) radioligand therapy Lutathera demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful progression-free survival in first line advanced gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

  • Pacific Biosciences (PACB) achieves commercial milestone under merger agreement relating to the Omniome acquisition of approximately $101 mln in cash and 8.9 mln shares of common stock

  • Reviva Pharmaceuticals (RVPH) announces last patient evaluated in pivotal Phase 3 RECOVER Trial for Brilaroxazine in Schizophrenia

  • Rite Aid (RAD) plans to shut down hundreds of stores, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Sanofi (SNY) receives once-weekly ALTUVIIIO approval in Japan

  • Standard Lithium (SLI) announced an enhanced C-suite with the addition of Salah Gamoudi as Chief Financial Officer, effective October 1, 2023

  • Stellantis (STLA) provides response to UAW President's claims

  • Target (TGT) will launch Circle Week Oct. 1-7

  • Tyson (TSN) and Perdue facing investigation into potential child labor, according to the New York Times

M&A:

  • Allient (ALNT) acquired Sierramotion Inc., a privately-owned company specializing in designing and engineering turn-key motion components and mechatronic solutions for robotic, medical, industrial, defense, semiconductor and other precision applications

  • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) to divest UK Life Insurance Business to Aviva (AVVIY)

  • Enovis Corporation (ENOV) to acquire LimaCorporate S.p.A.; reaffirms guidance

  • Infosys (INFY): EC clears acquisition of certain Liberty Global (LBTYA / LBTYK) assets by Infosys

  • Novartis (NVS) confirms Sandoz Spin-off for October 4

  • Pan Am Silver (PAAS) completes sale of MARA and Morococha

  • Regal Rexnord (RRX) divests its Industrial Motors & Generators businesses To WEG for $400 mln

Syndicate:

  • Fluor (FLR) announces full mandatory conversion of Series A 6.50% Cumulative Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock

  • M&T Bank (MTB) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • NIO (NIO) closes offerings $500 mln of convertible senior notes due 2029 and $500 mln of convertible senior notes due 2030

IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • ARDX +8.6%, PARA +3.5%, PACB +3%, FLR+3%, GT +2.8%, DIS +1.3%, NFLX +1.2%, IDA+1%, SLI +1%, AMZN +0.9%, SNY +0.8%, BIIB +0.8%

  • Gapping down:

  • NIO -2.7%, MORF -2.6%, RRX -2.4%, SWX-2.2%, GWH -1.4%, STLA -0.9%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $80

  • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt raised to $25

  • Dow (DOW) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $55

  • Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Guggenheim

  • Zegna Group (ZGN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $16.50

  • Downgrades:

  • BHP Group (BHP) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt lowered to $58

  • Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $18

  • Morphic (MORF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $100

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $31

  • Others:

  • Ambrx Biopharma (AMAM) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $15

  • First Mid-Illinois Bancshares (FMBH) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $34

  • Hudson Technologies (HDSN) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $15

  • Sana Biotechnology (SANA) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $9

Econ Data:

  • No economic data of note/

Earnings:

  • Monday (Sep 25)

  • Afternoon: THO

  • Tuesday (Sep 26)

  • Morning: CTAS FERG SNX UNFI

  • Afternoon:  AIR COST MLKN PRGS

  • Wednesday (Sep 27)

  • Morning:  PAYX

  • Afternoon:  CNXC FUL JEF MU WOR

  • Thursday (Sep 28)

  • Morning: ACN KMX JBL

  • Afternoon:  NKE MTN

  • Friday (Sep 29) 

  • During Market Hours: CCL

 

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note. China's troubled developer Evergrande returned to headlines, announcing that it cannot issue new debt and it is scrapping a planned $35 bln debt restructuring. In addition, one of the company's subsidiaries is being investigated. Separately, shares of Country Garden were pressured after bondholders said that they did not receive a payment that was due a week ago. A People's Bank of China official said that additional easing of policy is unlikely. Australia may change its definition of full employment.

  • In economic data:

  • Singapore's August CPI 0.9% m/m (last -0.2%); 4.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.1%). August Core CPI 3.4% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 3.8%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.9%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.8%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%

  • India's Sensex: UNCH

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.2% to 148.62

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.3103

  • USD/INR: +0.2% to 83.09

 

Europe: DAX -0.7%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.5%

Major European indices trade in the red after Germany's ifo Business Climate Index weakened to 85.7 from 85.8 in the September reading. Spain's PPI was down 10.0% yr/yr in August, contracting at a faster rate than what was seen at the height of coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. European Central Bank policymakers Villeroy de Galhau, De Cos, and Kazaks spoke in favor of pausing rate hikes at the October meeting. Italian banks will reportedly be exempt from paying the planned windfall tax if they increase their capital reserves. The Bank of England will delay the implementation of global banking reforms by another six months.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's September ifo Business Climate Index 85.7 (expected 85.2; last 85.8). September Current Assessment 88.7 (expected 88.0; last 89.0) and Business Expectations 82.9, as expected (last 82.7)

  • U.K.'s September CBI Distributive Trades Survey -14 (expected -33; last -44)

  • Spain's August PPI -10.0% yr/yr (last -8.6%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.5% 

  • Germany's DAX: -0.7%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6% 

  • France's CAC 40: -0.5%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.7%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.7%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0642

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2242

  • USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.9093

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