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25/03/22 Briefing


The stock market is on track for a modestly higher start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 23 points above fair value.

The benchmark index faced some volatility this week, but it approached its high from Tuesdayduring yesterday's session. The index enters today with a week-to-date gain of 1.3% while the Nasdaq has gained 2.1% this week and the Dow is down 0.1% since last Friday.

Overnight action saw a mostly lower showing from markets in Asia while European indices are looking to finish the week on a positive note.

President Biden and European officials announced a plan to increase exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe, but new infrastructure will need to be constructed before deliveries can be increased.

Crude oil is continuing yesterday's pullback, as it slips $1.80, or 1.6%, to $110.54/bbl.

Today's economic data will be limited to the 10:00 ETrelease of February Pending Home Sales (Briefing.comconsensus 1.2%; prior -5.7%) and the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for March (Briefing.comconsensus 59.7; prior 59.7).

Treasuries are modestly lower with the 10-yr yield rising two basis points to 2.36%.

In U.S. corporate news:

  • NIO (NIO 21.21, -0.77): -3.5% after missing Q4 expectations and issuing below-consensus guidance for Q1.

  • Honest Company (HNST 4.87, -1.17): -19.4% after missing Q4 expectations and issuing below-consensus guidance for FY22.

  • Mister Car Wash (MCW 16.07, +0.22): +1.4% after beating Q4 expectations and issuing above-consensus revenue guidance for FY22.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2.5%, and China's Shanghai Composite -1.2%

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's March Tokyo CPI +1.3% yr/yr (prior +1.0%) and Tokyo Core CPI +0.8% yr/yr (expected +0.4%; prior +0.5%)

  • Singapore's February Industrial Production +17.6% yr/yr (expected +6.3%; prior +2.4%)


  • In news:

  • Tokyo March CPI hit a six-year high and the 10-yr JGB (0.235%) reached its highest yield since January 2016



  • Major European indices trade higher. Germany's DAX +0.9%, France's CAC +0.8%, and the U.K.'s FTSE +0.3%

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's March Ifo Business Climate Index 90.8 (expected 94.2; prior 98.5)

  • UK's February Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected +0.6%; prior +1.9%) and +7.0% yr/yr (expected +7.8%; prior +9.4%); March GfK Consumer Confidence -31 (expected -30; prior -26)

  • Spain's Q4 GDP +2.2% qtr/qtr (expected +2.0%; prior +2.6%) and +5.5% yr/yr (expected +5.2%; prior +3.5%); PPI +40.7% yr/yr (prior +35.7%)

  • Italy's March Business Confidence 110.3 (expected 111.7; prior 112.9) and March Consumer Confidence 100.8 (expected 108.3; prior 112.4)


  • In news:

  • ECB member Schnabel said the central bank would reconsider plan to end bond purchases this summer if the war in Ukraine triggered a deep recession in the eurozone




U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +15 @ 4,535

  • DJIA Futures: +91 @ 34,791

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +64 @ 14,830

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.8%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -2.5%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -2.29 @ 110.10

  • Nat Gas +0.056 @ 5.457

  • Gold -9.05 @ 1953.15

  • Silver -0.072 @ 25.848

  • Copper -0.0230 @ 4.7195

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):

  • Altus Power (AMPS) reports Q4 results, revs increase 91.5% yr/yr to $21.6 mln, no ests; guides to 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $57-63 mln

  • BRP Inc. (DOOO) beats by CAD0.50, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Honest Company (HNST) misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY22 revs below consensus

  • Joby Aviation (JOBY) reports Q4 earnings of $0.01/share, $(60.9) mln in net cash flow; will focus on certification and early manufacturing operations in FY22

  • Maxeon Solar (MAXN) reports Q4 (Dec) results, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus

  • Mister Car Wash (MCW) beats by $0.02, beats on revs, comparable store sales up 14.6% yr/yr; guides FY22 EPS inline, revs above consensus

  • NIO (NIO) misses by RMB0.03, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus

  • Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG) provides quarterly update; Year-end cash position of $62.3 mln

  • Orion Office REIT (ONL) reports Core FFO of $0.47, no estimates; revenue of $40.8 mln; guides for FY22 Core FFO of $1.66-$1.74

  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) lowers Q1 revenue guidance due to weather-related launch delay

  • Sight Sciences (SGHT) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs in-line with consensus

  • SmartRent (SMRT) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY22 revs below consensus


  • General News:

  • Ukraine has conducted several counteroffensives against Russia. Western leaders fear Russia will turn to using unconventional weapons. President Biden will visit border with Poland today, according to the New York Times

  • EU leaders fear China will supply technology hardware to Russia, according to Bloomberg

  • United States and European Commission announce task force to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels

  • Moody's intends to withdraw its credit ratings on Russian entities

  • Dept of Justice unseals two indictments charging four Russian nationals targeting the global energy sector

  • EU Commission confirms political agreement on rules to ensure fair and open digital markets

  • UK government unveils plans to support the UK market to reach 300,000 public electric vehicle (EV) chargepoints by 2030

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) awarded $1.02 bln Army contract

  • ADMA Biologics (ADMA) receives FDA Approval of extended shelf life for ASCENIV & BIVIGAM from 24 to 36 months

  • Alaska Air (ALK) authorizes plan to retire its Q400 fleet

  • Apple (AAPL) filed arguments in Epic Games appeal case, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) says Roflumilast demonstrates clinically meaningful results in patients with Seborrheic Dermatitis

  • Baozun (BZUN) increased share repurchase authorization by $80 mln in addition to previous $175 mln

  • Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) is getting close to entering into settlement agreement with activist investor Ryan Cohen, according to Bloomberg

  • Boeing (BA) might not get 737 Max 10 certification by end of 2022, according to Reuters

  • Bristol-Myers (BMY) announced that the FDA has extended the review of the sBLA for Reblozyl for the treatment of anemia in adults with non-transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia to June 27, 2022

  • Casa Systems (CASA) announces appointment of Edward Durkin as CFO, effective April 4, 2022

  • China Airlines (CEA) crash evidence appears to show breakup in mid air, according to Bloomberg

  • CVS Health (CVS) discloses that the EVP/COO of CVS Health Corporation Jonathan C. Roberts intends to retire from CVS Health in June 2022

  • FedEx (FDX) testing EVs for big city deliveries where lack of parking is a major challenge, according to CNBC

  • Goldman Sachs (GS) suspended business with Pamplona Capital Management, according to Financial Times

  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) invests $100 mln in in UK Manufacturing facility

  • JD.com(JD) provides details of JD Logistics' financing

  • KBR (KBR) and ExxonMobil (XOM) Catalysts and Licensing announce collaboration on next-generation propane dehydrogenation technology

  • MEI Pharma (MEIP) and Kyowa Kirin provide regulatory update on zandelisib; FDA discourages filing based on Phase 2 TIDAL study data

  • Mercury (MRCY) received a $24 mln contract award from leading defense prime contractor for avionics systems

  • Netflix (NFLX) adds game development studio Boss Fight Entertainment to company

  • NovoCure (NVCR) presents update results from Phase 2 2-THE-TOP trial

  • Okta (OKTA) hackers were arrested by London police, according to Reuters

  • Perrigo (PRGO) announces CFO Ray Silcock's planned retirement; will remain with the company until July 15

  • Personalis (PSNL) names Karin Eastham as Board Chair

  • RGC Resources (RGCO) is in the process of evaluating an impairment charge related to its investment in the Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC

  • Shaw Communications (SJR) comments on critical milestone toward closing transaction with Rogers Communications (RCI): CRTC approves transfer of broadcasting undertakings to Rogers

  • Sight Sciences (SGHT) announces treatment of first patient in TRIDENT trial

  • Softbank (SFTBY) wants to value Arm IPO at least $60 bln, according to Bloomberg

  • Titan International (TWI) and CNH Industrial (CNHI) enter into long-term supply agreement


  • M&A:

  • DigitalBridge (DBRG) acquires Telenet's Mobile Telecommunications Tower Business

  • Martin Marietta (MLM) to sell Colorado and Central Texas ready mixed concrete operations to Smyrna; terms of deal not disclosed

  • NortonLifeLock (NLOK): UK CMA has referred the anticipated acquisition by NortonLifeLock Inc. of Avast plc for an in-depth investigation

  • Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) makes strategic minority investment in holding company of Velocity Capital Advisors

  • SmartRent (SMRT) announces acquisition of SightPlan for approx. $135 mln in cash

  • XPO Logistics (XPO) has divested its North American intermodal business to STG Logistics, Inc. for cash proceeds of ~$710 mln


  • Syndicate:

  • Asana (ASAN) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) files for 9,442,185 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Gates Industrial (GTES) prices secondary offering of 5.0 mln ordinary shares by certain selling stockholders affiliated with Blackstone (BX)

  • Purple Innovation (PRPL) prices offering 14.0 mln shares of common stock; additional terms not disclosed


  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected to price.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • SNDL +20.4%, TLRY +15.2%, ACB +14.4%, CGC+11.9%, OGI +9%, CRON +8%, GRWG +6.2%, JOBY+4.9%, SGHT +3.9%, DOOO +3.9%, TWI +3.3%, SJR+2.5%, MCW +1.4%, JAZZ +1.2%, NVCR +1%


  • Gapping down:

  • MEIP -42.5%, HNST -19.4%, DBRG -17.9%, AMPS-15.4%, ONL -14.2%, SMRT -9.2%, PRPL -8.6%, GTES -5.3%, JD -5%, NIO -4.9%, NLOK -2.6%, SEIC -2.1%, MAXN -1.9%, ASAN -1.7%, RKLB-1.2%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Farfetch (FTCH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale; tgt $22

  • Rio Tinto (RIO) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS


  • Downgrades:

  • Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $26

  • Carnival (CCL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

  • Commscope (COMM) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $8

  • Diversey Holdings (DSEY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $9

  • Fortinet (FTNT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $355

  • Honest Company (HNST) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $5

  • Honest Company (HNST) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim

  • MarketWise (MKTW) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

  • MEI Pharma (MEIP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $2

  • MEI Pharma (MEIP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $1

  • MEI Pharma (MEIP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt lowered to $2

  • ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright

  • Postal Realty (PSTL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $19

  • Prudential (PRU) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $121

  • Switch (SWCH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $31


  • Others:

  • Amcor (AMCR) initiated with a Hold at Truist; tgt $12

  • ANSYS (ANSS) initiated with a Sell at Daiwa Securities; tgt $253

  • APi Group (APG) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $24

  • Avery Dennison (AVY) initiated with a Buy at Truist; tgt $227

  • HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) initiated with a Speculative Buy at Stifel; tgt $3.75

  • HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $2.80

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $340

  • REE Automotive (REE) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $1

  • TeraWulf (WULF) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $24


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: Pending Home Sales for Feb. (Briefing.comConsensus 1.2%; Prior -5.7%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final for March (Briefing.comConsensus 59.7; Prior 59.7)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 21)

  • Afternoon: NKE TME


  • Tuesday (Mar 22)

  • Morning: CCL GDS HUYA

  • Afternoon: AIR ADBE GAN PAGS POSH WOR


  • Wednesday (Mar 23)

  • Morning: CTAS YOU EPAC EVGO GIS JKS WGO

  • Afternoon: FUL KBH OLLI OXM SCS COOK TCOM


  • Thursday (Mar 24)

  • Morning: DRI FDS MOMO KC NEOG SNX TITN

  • Afternoon: HNST NIO


  • Friday (Mar 25)

  • Morning: DOOO




Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -2.5%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Friday, although Chinese markets were weak. Sentiment was pressured by the specter of China facing sanctions if it helps Russia avoid Western sanctions and U.S. regulators suggesting talk of U.S.-China dual stock listing is "premature." COVID issues also continuing to hang over China with Beijing postponing its auto show and both Hong Kong and Shanghai still dealing with rising cases. Japan's Nikkei posted its ninth straight gain with Tokyo March CPI checking in at a six-year high and the 10-yr JGB (0.235%) reaching its highest yield since January 2016. A weak yen has helped export stocks, although traders anticipating likelihood of BOJ intervention to stem the weakness. USD/JPY -0.5% to 121.71.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's March Tokyo CPI +1.3% yr/yr (prior +1.0%) and Tokyo Core CPI +0.8% yr/yr (expected +0.4%; prior +0.5%)

  • Singapore's February Industrial Production +17.6% yr/yr (expected +6.3%; prior +2.4%)



  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.1% (+4.9% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.5% (flat for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.2% (-1.2% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: -0.4% (-0.9% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: unch (+0.9% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% (+1.6% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.5% to 121.71

  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.3758

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 76.216

Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.8%

Major European indices are trading higher despite a batch of generally disappointing economic data, highlighted by weaker-than-expected retail sales in the UK and weaker-than-expected business confidence in Germany and Italy. Some semblance of an ECB put could be in the mix after ECB member Schnabel said the bank would reconsider plan to end bond purchases this summer if the war in Ukraine triggered a deep recession in the eurozone. Separately, the US and EU reportedly reached an agreement that provides for increased supply of LNG from the U.S. that will enable Europe to cut its dependency on Russia.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's March Ifo Business Climate Index 90.8 (expected 94.2; prior 98.5)

  • UK's February Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected +0.6%; prior +1.9%) and +7.0% yr/yr (expected +7.8%; prior +9.4%); March GfK Consumer Confidence -31 (expected -30; prior -26)

  • Spain's Q4 GDP +2.2% qtr/qtr (expected +2.0%; prior +2.6%) and +5.5% yr/yr (expected +5.2%; prior +3.5%); PPI +40.7% yr/yr (prior +35.7%)

  • Italy's March Business Confidence 110.3 (expected 111.7; prior 112.9) and March Consumer Confidence 100.8 (expected 108.3; prior 112.4)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.5% (+0.1% for the week)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.8% (-0.2% for the week)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3% (+1.2% for the week)

  • France's CAC 40: +0.8% (-0.2% for the week)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6% (+1.4% for the week)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5% (-0.9% for the week)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.1012

  • GBP/USD: flat at 1.3183

  • USD/CHF: -0.4% to 0.9265

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