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24/05/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 134 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Weakness in stock futures is a reflection of more skittishness about the debt ceiling. Reports indicate that discussions have reached an impasse and that no additional meetings are scheduled at this time.

Treasuries reflect some flight to safety action. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.28% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.67%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and indicated that the terminal rate has been reached.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index dropped 4.6% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinance applications dropping 5.0%.

Other economic data today includes:

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +5.04 million)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: Minutes from the May 2-3 FOMC meeting

In corporate news:

  • Kohl's (KSS 21.73, +2.46, +12.8%): beats by $0.57, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Agilent (A 116.39, -12.25, -9.5%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets

  • Intuit (INTU 426.88, -22.92, -5.1%): beats by $0.43, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus

  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW 198.65, +8.91, +4.7%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN 30.31, +3.65, +13.7%): beats by $0.20, beats on revs, comparable retail segment net sales increased 5%; upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

  • Toll Brothers (TOL 65.49, +1.74, +2.7%): beats by $0.93, beats on revs

  • New Relic (NEWR 76.99, -5.52, -6.7%): beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • PacWest Bancorp (PACW 7.72, +0.34, +4.6%): Roc Capital Holdings acquires origination assets of Civic Financial Services, a subsidiary of Pacific Western Bank

  • PTC Therapeutics (PTCT 47.49, -10.92, -18.7%): announces "topline" results from Vatiquinone MOVE-FA registration-directed trial, Friedreich Ataxia did not meet primary endpoint; reducing workforce by approximately 8%; terminates employment of CFO Emily Hill, effective August 20

  • Analog Devices (ADI 179.68, -8.24, -4.4%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.3%, India's Sensex: -0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: UNCH, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's May Reuters Tankan Index 6 (last -3)

  • South Korea's June Manufacturing BSI Index 70 (expected 72; last 68)

  • Australia's April MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last 0.0%)

  • New Zealand's Q1 Retail Sales -1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last -1.0%) and Core Retail Sales -1.1% qtr/qtr (expected -1.0%; last -1.6%)


  • In news:

  • Australia's Prime Minister Albanese said that impediments to trade with China should be removed.

  • Chinese press noted that there is a lesser need for fiscal stimulus due to an accelerating recovery.

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and indicated that the terminal rate has been reached.



  • Major European indices trade on a sharply lower note. STOXX Europe 600: -1.7%, Germany's DAX: -1.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.8%, France's CAC 40: -1.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's May ifo Business Climate Index 91.7 (expected 93.0; last 93.4). May Current Assessment 94.8 (expected 94.7; last 95.1) and Business Expectations 88.6 (expected 91.9; last 91.7)

  • U.K.'s April CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 8.7% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 10.1%). April Core CPI 1.3% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.2%). April Input PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.2%) and Output PPI 0.0% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%). May CBI Industrial Trends Orders -17 (expected -19; last -20)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that several more rate hikes will be needed while ECB President Lagarde repeated that she wants rates to reach a sufficiently restrictive level.

  • British Chancellor Hunt said that current inflation figures show that there is no room for complacency.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -14 @ 4,132

  • DJIA Futures: -105 @ 32,951

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -48 @ 13,625

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.6%, FTSE -1.8%, CAC -1.8%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai Composite -1.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.20 @ 74.11

  • Nat Gas +0.019 @ 2.508

  • Gold +9.35 @ 1983.85

  • Silver -0.026 @ 23.598

  • Copper -0.0522 @ 3.6023


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF 1.10% ) beats by $0.37, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus

  • Agilent ( A 0.35% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Analog Devices ( ADI 0.00% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Bank of Montreal ( BMO 0.83% ) misses by CAD 0.30, beats on revs

  • Bank of Nova Scotia ( BNS 0.69% ) misses by CAD 0.08, reports revs in-line

  • Delek US Holdings ( DK 0.82% ) in slide presentation sees Q2 total crude throughput of 290-300K barrels per day; sees Q2 operating expenses of $195-205 mln

  • Dycom ( DY 0.45% ) beats by $1.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line

  • Futu Holdings ( FUTU 0.00% ) reports Q1 results; beats on revs

  • Intuit ( INTU 0.00% ) beats by $0.43, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus

  • Kohl's ( KSS 1.23% ) beats by $0.57, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Landstar System ( LSTR 0.00% ) lowers its Q2 guidance due to truck load volumes and revenue per load trending below year-ago period by double-digit percentages

  • New Relic ( NEWR 1.16% ) beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Palo Alto Networks ( PANW 0.00% ) beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Petco Health and Wellness ( WOOF 0.00% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance; Q1 comps +5.1%

  • Photronics ( PLAB 0.00% ) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above two analyst estimate

  • PPG Industries ( PPG 2.70% ) provides financial targets for investor briefing; sees Adjusted EPS growth of 8-12% through 2026

  • The Children's Place ( PLCE 0.00% ) misses by $0.22, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Toll Brothers ( TOL 1.47% ) beats by $0.93, beats on revs

  • Urban Outfitters ( URBN 0.00% ) beats by $0.20, beats on revs, comparable retail segment net sales increased 5%

  • V.F. Corp ( VFC 3.02% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line; expects FY24 sales growth to be flat to up slightly in cc

News:

  • Debt ceiling discussions have reached an impasse. No additional meetings are currently scheduled, according to Bloomberg

  • The conservative freedom caucus doesn't want any changes to Republican bill that already passed the House while progressive Democrats want President Biden to use 14th Amendment to raise debt ceiling unilaterally. Both groups are putting pressure on leadership, according to CNN

  • Moderate Republicans will not support Democratic efforts to force a debt ceiling vote through a discharge petition, according to CNN

  • UK CMA issues statement of objections related to suspected anti-competitive arrangements

  • Abbott Labs ( ABT 2.32% ): FTC launches inquiry into infant formula crisis

  • Alvotech ( ALVO 0.00% ) discloses termination of agreements with STADA

  • Avery Dennison ( AVY 0.68% ) announces planned CEO succession; Mitch Butier has decided to retire as CEO, effective September 1; will remain as Executive Chairman Deon Stander appointed President and CEO

  • Camping World ( CWH 1.11% ) initiates review of capital allocation strategy

  • Citigroup ( C 0.26% ): Mexico considers purchasing most shares in Citigroup's Banamex, according to Reuters

  • Clarivate ( CLVT 0.26% ) extends share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2024, and reduces the authorization to $500 mln from $1 bln

  • Delta Air Lines ( DAL 1.27% ) names Mike Spanos as COO, effective June 12

  • Galapagos NV ( GLPG 0.00% ) announces start of Phase 2 study with selective TYK2 inhibitor, GLPG3667, in patients with dermatomyositis

  • General Dynamics ( GD 2.62% ) awarded a $736 million modification to the existing T-AO contract for construction of a ninth ship (T-AO 213) in the John Lewis-class fleet oiler program; also receives $1.076 bln contract modification for Virginia-Class submarines

  • Honeywell ( HON 0.00% ) unveils Honeywell Forge for Buildings and expands sustainability-focused applications

  • Infosys ( INFY 0.77% ) announced its collaboration with Adobe (ADBE) to transform the digital workforce through Infosys' online learning platform, Infosys Springboard

  • Innoviva ( INVA 0.00% ) receives FDA approval for XACDURO

  • Kamada ( KMDA 0.00% ) announces CFO Chaime Orlev has withdrawn his resignation, will remain at the company; appoints Nir Livneh as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary; announces share purchase agreement with FIMI Opportunity Funds

  • Meta ( META 0.00% ) loses EU court case over data for antitrust investigation, according to Bloomberg

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.00% ) introducing Microsoft Fabric: Data analytics for the era of AI

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.00% ): Elon Musk wants to challenge Microsoft and Google (GOOG) on artificial intelligence, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Microvast ( MVST 0.00% ): Company is surprised by US DoE's decision to withdraw $200 mln separator grant; says "Neither the Chinese government nor the Chinese Communist Party has any ownership in the Company"

  • Novo Nordisk A/S ( NVO 4.13% ) and Life Edit Therapeutics establish multi-target collaboration to discover and develop gene editing therapies for rare and cardiometabolic diseases

  • Opera ( OPRA 0.00% ) unveils Aria, its new browser AI today

  • Option Care Health ( OPCH 0.00% ) selected by Krystal Biotech (KRYS) as part of limited distribution specialty pharmacy network for VYJUVEK, which was approved by FDA on May 19

  • O'Reilly Auto ( ORLY 0.00% ) increases repurchase authorization by an additional $2.0 bln, raising the aggregate authorization to $23.75 bln

  • Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( PHAT 0.00% ) Resubmits Erosive GERD New Drug Application to FDA

  • Prudential ( PRU 0.26% ): Constellation announces $10 billion block reinsurance transaction with Prudential Financial

  • PTC Therapeutics ( PTCT 0.00% ) announces "topline" results from Vatiquinone MOVE-FA registration-directed trial; to reduce workforce by approximately 8%; terminates employment of CFO Emily Hill, effective August 20

  • PTC Therapeutics ( PTCT 0.00% ) to continue development and global commercialization of Upstaza as part of a strategic portfolio prioritization; estimated reductions of approx. 15% in residual 2023 OpEx

  • Quanta Services ( PWR 2.56% ) authorizes new $500 mln stock repurchase through June 30, 2026

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ): Jnana Therapeutics announces milestone achieved under first collaboration with Roche

  • SOPHiA GENETICS SA ( SOPH 0.00% ): Institute of Oncology Ljubljana Leverages SOPHiA DDM Platform for Cancer Research

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.00% ) will select location for new factory this year, according to Reuters

  • The Duckhorn Portfolio ( NAPA 0.67% ) appoints Jennifer Fall Jung as CFO, effective June 19, 2023

  • Uber ( UBER 1.30% ) will add 25K EVs in India, according to Bloomberg

  • UBS ( UBS 1.58% ) is in discussions with Swiss officials over protections for Credit Suisse (CS) deal, according to Reuters

M&A:

  • GoHealth ( GOCO 0.00% ) establishes special committee of the Board to consider a proposal from its two largest stockholders to acquire all outstanding Class A common stock and LLC interests that these stockholders do not already own

  • Hillenbrand HI 1.32% to acquire the Schenck Process Food and Performance Materials business, a portfolio company of Blackstone (BX), for an enterprise value of approximately $730 mln

  • Ivanhoe Electric's ( IE 4.05% ) Mesa Cobre Holding Corporation completed acquisition of certain real property situated in Pinal County, Arizona and certain water rights

  • JinkoSolar ( JKS 4.01% ) subsidiary signs Equity Transfer Agreement for disposal of its 100% equity interest in Xinjiang Jinko

  • Necessity Retail REIT ( RTL 0.00% ) to be acquired by Global Net Lease (GNL) in all-stock transaction

  • Pyxis Oncology ( PYXS 0.00% ) to acquire Apexigen (APGN)

  • Rocket Lab USA ( RKLB 0.00% ) bolsters neutron rocket program with purchase of Virgin Orbit (VORB) Long Beach California Assets

  • Ryan Specialty Group ( RYAN 5.77% ) to acquire Socius Insurance Services, a wholesale insurance broker; financial details not disclosed

Syndicate:

  • 89bio ( ETNB 0.00% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Hannon Armstrong Sust. Infr. ( HASI 0.37% ) announces public offering of $300 million of shares of common stock

  • Medical Properties Trust ( MPW 1.02% ) announces prospect recapitalization transactions

  • PacWest Bancorp ( PACW 0.00% ): Roc Capital Holdings acquires origination assets of Civic Financial Services, a subsidiary of Pacific Western Bank

  • Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( PHAT 0.00% ) intends to offer shares of its common stock in a public offering; to grant underwriters option to purchase up to additional 15% of stock offering

  • Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( PHAT 0.00% ) prices offering of 11.125 mln shares of common stock at $11.75 per share

  • RenaissanceRe ( RNR 3.89% ) prices offering of 6.3 mln shares of common stock at $192.00 per share

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 0.00% ) upsizes and prices 5 mln share common stock offering at $23/share

  • U.S. Physical Therapy ( USPH 0.36% ) files mixed shelf securities offering; files public offering of $150 mln of its common stock

IPOs:

  • IPOs Expected to Price:

  • Atmus Filtration Technologies (NYSE: ATMU): The manufacturer of filtration products for commercial vehicles and agriculture, construction, mining and power generation vehicles is expected to price its 14.1 M share IPO between $18-$21.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • RTL +28.5%, URBN +13.5%, PLAB +10.1%, RETA +9.8%, LRMR +5%, DY +4.8%, INVA +4.7%, PANW +4.7%, RKLB +4.6%, CAAP +4.5%, PACW +3.8%, TOL +3.5%, VFC +3.4%, ETNB +3%, FUTU +2.7%, GLPG +0.9%, NAPA +0.9%, MPW +0.9%, RYAN +0.8%


  • Gapping down:

  • PTCT -18.2%, A -9.1%, PHAT -9%, NVTS -8.1%, GNL -7.4%, NEWR -6.6%, INTU -5.1%, USPH -3.6%, WERN -3.4%, LSTR -2.9%, ECVT -2.5%, COCO -2.1%, HASI -2%, BMO -1%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Accolade (ACCD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $16.50

  • Owens Corning (OC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $135

  • Range Resources (RRC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $31

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $38


  • Downgrades:

  • Agilent (A) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets

  • Shopify (SHOP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas

  • SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $144

  • Southwestern Energy (SWN) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $5


  • Others:

  • AmBev (ABEV) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein; tgt $3.74

  • IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $32

  • RXO, Inc. (RXO) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $27


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for May 20 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -5.7%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for May 20 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +5.04M)

  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes for May 2-3

Earnings:

  • Monday (May 22)

  • Morning: GLBE

  • Afternoon: CSWC HEI NDSN ZM


  • Tuesday (May 23)

  • Morning: AZO BJ DKS DAVA IHS KC LOW VIPS WSM

  • Afternoon: A INTU NEWR PANW TOL URBN VFC


  • Wednesday (May 24)

  • Morning: ANF CRMT ADI BMO BNS DY KSS WOOF PLAB PLCE

  • Afternoon: AEO APPS ELF ENS GES RAMP MOD NVDA SNOW SPLK STEP PATH ZUO


  • Thursday (May 25)

  • Morning: AMWD BZUN BBY BURL CM CMCO DLTR GDS GCO HLNE MDT NTES RL RY TITN TD WB

  • Afternoon: ME ADSK COST DECK DOMO GPS LGF.A MRVL RH ULTA WDAY


  • Friday (May 26)

  • Morning: BIG BAH BKE


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai Composite -1.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese said that impediments to trade with China should be removed. Chinese press noted that there is a lesser need for fiscal stimulus due to an accelerating recovery. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and indicated that the terminal rate has been reached.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's May Reuters Tankan Index 6 (last -3)

  • South Korea's June Manufacturing BSI Index 70 (expected 72; last 68)

  • Australia's April MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last 0.0%)

  • New Zealand's Q1 Retail Sales -1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last -1.0%) and Core Retail Sales -1.1% qtr/qtr (expected -1.0%; last -1.6%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.9%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.8%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.3%

  • India's Sensex: -0.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: UNCH

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 138.50

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 7.0598

  • USD/INR: -0.2% to 82.67

Europe: DAX -1.6%, FTSE -1.8%, CAC -1.8%

Major European indices trade on a sharply lower note. European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that several more rate hikes will be needed while ECB President Lagarde repeated that she wants rates to reach a sufficiently restrictive level. British Chancellor Hunt said that current inflation figures show that there is no room for complacency.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's May ifo Business Climate Index 91.7 (expected 93.0; last 93.4). May Current Assessment 94.8 (expected 94.7; last 95.1) and Business Expectations 88.6 (expected 91.9; last 91.7)

  • U.K.'s April CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 8.7% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 10.1%). April Core CPI 1.3% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.2%). April Input PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.2%) and Output PPI 0.0% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%). May CBI Industrial Trends Orders -17 (expected -19; last -20)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.7%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.6%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.8%

  • France's CAC 40: -1.8%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.4%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0768

  • GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.2387

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9022


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