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22/11/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Major indices look poised to begin the day with modest gains, supported by mega-cap leadership after NVIDIA (NVDA) once again blew past analysts' estimates in impressive fashion. While NVDA is flat after its report, keep in mind that NVDA had risen 25% since its low on October 26 going into the report.

In brief, the market was pleased to see and hear that NVDA is still surpassing high expectations.

The earnings news from NVIDIA has overshadowed disappointing results and/or guidance elsewhere from the likes of Autodesk (ADSK), Deere (DE), HP, Inc. (HPQ), and Guess? (GES).

Outside of NVIDIA, the 10-yr note yield sliding to 4.36%, down six basis points from yesterday, is also providing underlying support along with the seasonality trade ahead of economic releases this morning that include Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET), October Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET), and the Final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET).

In other news, Sam Altman is returning to OpenAI as CEO, and Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day pause in fighting that is part of a hostage release deal.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 103.64. WTI crude futures are down 2.9% to $75.52/bbl.

As a reminder, the U.S. market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday.

In corporate news:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 499.38, -0.06, -0.01%): beats by $0.65, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs above consensus; says affected sales from U.S. export curbs to be more than offset by strong growth in other regions

  • Clorox (CLX 140.51, +1.16, +0.8%): upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan

  • Alibaba (BABA 79.52, +0.58, +0.7%): Jack Ma ends plans to lower stake in Alibaba, according to Bloomberg

  • Deere (DE 361.50, -21.15, -5.5%): beats by $0.80, beats on revs, but FY24 guidance deemed weaker than expected

  • Microsoft (MSFT 377.34, +4.27, +1.1%): Sam Altman returning to OpenAI as CEO

  • Caterpillar (CAT 243.60, -5.81, -2.3%): trading lower in sympathy with Deere

  • Autodesk (ADSK 203.37, -14.30, -6.6%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler

  • HP, Inc. (HPQ 27.31, -0.56, -2.0%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; mid-point of JanQ EPS guidance below consensus; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance

  • Guess? (GES 20.28, -3.44, -14.5%): misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN 33.89, -2.42, -6.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs, Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 5.6%

  • Jack in the Box (JACK 66.75, -2.14, -3.1%): misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus; authorizes share repurchase program for up to $250 mln

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei +0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng unchanged, China's Shanghai Composite -0.8%, India's Sensex +0.1%, South Korea's Kospi +0.1%, and Australia's ASX All Ordinaries -0.2%.

    • In economic data:

      • Singapore's Q3 GDP 1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last 0.1%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%)

      • Australia's October MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last 0.1%)


  • In news:

    • The Bank of Japan once again reduced its scheduled bond buying plans. Meanwhile, the Japanese cabinet office lowered its view of the overall economy for the first time since January.

    • Major state-owned banks in China have reportedly been acquiring dollars through onshore swap agreements and selling the proceeds in the spot currency market.

    • Chinese government advisers are recommending more fiscal stimulus and a 2024 growth target between 4.5% and 5.5%, according to Reuters.



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. Germany's DAX +0.4%, UK's FTSE 100 -0.1%, France's CAC 40 +0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB +0.4%, and Spain's IBEX 35 +0.5%.

    • In economic data:

      • U.K.'s November CBI Industrial Trends Orders -35 (expected -25; last -26)


  • In news:

    • The British government is expected to release its Autumn Budget statement this morning, which could include lower income taxes and national insurance fees, according to reports from Monday.

    • European Central Bank President Lagarde said that supply shocks that fueled inflation are now subsiding, but the ECB remains ready to hike again if there are renewed risks of missing the inflation target.

    • The ECB's financial stability review noted that stability is fragile, and it is critical to reach an agreement on region-wide fiscal rules.

    • The German government is reportedly implementing a freeze on most new spending plans.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +12 @ 4,550

  • DJIA Futures: +52 @ 35,141

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +64 @ 15,998

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng UNCH, Shanghai Composite -0.8%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -2.24 @ 75.53

  • Nat Gas -0.003 @ 2.843

  • Gold +2.85 @ 2004.45

  • Silver +0.044 @ 23.913

  • Copper -0.0332 @ 3.7793

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Autodesk ( ADSK 6.40% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. ( BBAR 1.90% ) reports Q3 results

  • Baozun ( BZUN 10.12% ) beats by $2.64, reports revs in-line

  • Deere ( DE 6.21% ) beats by $0.80, beats on revs; provides FY24 guidance

  • dLocal Limited ( DLO 2.69% ) misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Emeren Group ( SOL 8.97% ) misses by $0.24, misses on revs

  • GDS Holdings ( GDS 1.09% ) beats by $2.27, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Guess? ( GES 10.20% ) misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus

  • HP Inc. ( HPQ 4.09% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; mid-point of JanQ EPS guidance below consensus; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance

  • Inter Parfums ( IPAR 2.18% ) initiates FY24 guidance; reiterates FY23 outlook

  • Jack In The Box ( JACK 0.51% ) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus; authorizes share repurchase program for up to $250 mln

  • Nordstrom beats by $0.13 ( JWN 6.74% ), misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY24 revs guidance

  • NVIDIA ( NVDA 2.79% ) beats by $0.65, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs above consensus; next waves of AI are starting to build

  • Raymond James ( RJF 0.08% ) reports October operating data; investment banking pipeline remains healthy, however, closings across the industry remain challenged

  • Stifel Financial ( SF 0.06% ) reports operating results for October 31, 2023; total client assets increased 6% yr/yr to $404.05 bln

  • Urban Outfitters ( URBN 10.40% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs, Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 5.6%

News:

  • China government advisors call for more stimulus in 2024, according to Reuters

  • Israel and Hamas agree to hostage release deal with four day pause in fighting, according to CNN

  • White House issues statement from President Joe Biden on the hostage release in Gaza

  • OPEC meeting scheduled for this weekend might be delayed as Saudi Arabia expressed dissatisfaction with other members' oil production levels, according to Bloomberg

  • Air Lease ( AL 1.04% ) delivers the first of 25 new Boeing 737-8 aircraft delivered to Malaysia Airlines Berhad from ALC's order book with Boeing (BA)

  • Alibaba ( BABA 0.68% ): Jack Ma ends plans to lower stake in Alibaba, according to Bloomberg

  • AngloGold Ashanti ( AU 1.64% ) reports silicon discovery

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.60% ): CEO Tim Cook determined his successor will come from within the co, according to AppleInsider

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.60% ): National Labor Relations Board claimed that Apple withheld benefits from union workers, according to Bloomberg

  • Arcturus Therapeutics ( ARCT 1.77% ) treatment of cystic fibrosis granted orphan status

  • B2Gold ( BTG 1.17% ) announces positive exploration drilling results from its inaugural drilling campaign at the Back River Gold District in Nunavut and provides an update on construction and mining at the Goose Project

  • Boeing ( BA 0.21% ) hackers took advantage of Citrix software flaw, according to Bloomberg

  • Citigroup ( C 0.01% ) in discussions to start a private credit strategy next year, according to Bloomberg

  • Corporacin Amrica Airports ( CAAP 0.00% ) reports a 14.5% yr/yr increase in passenger traffic in October 2023, exceeding October 2019 levels by 1.2%

  • CTO Realty Growth ( CTO 0.27% ) announces sale of Eastern Commons, a community shopping center in Henderson, NV, for $18.2 mln

  • Docebo ( DCBO 0.02% ) announces CEO succession plan and approves a issuer bid under which the company will repurchase up to $100 mln of common stock

  • Entrada Therapeutics ( TRDA 5.40% ) Announces Updates on ENTR-601-44 in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

  • Fresenius Medical Care ( FMS 0.20% ) resolves a legal dispute with the U.S. government, for accounts receivable in legal dispute, and entered into a final and legally binding settlement agreement today, whereby the company will receive a payment from the U.S. government

  • Infosys ( INFY 0.37% ) and TK Elevator extend strategic collaboration

  • MDU Resources ( MDU 1.13% ) announces five-year capital investment plan; targeting 15% increase in planned spending compared to previous five years

  • MGM Resorts ( MGM 1.05% ): Thousands of Culinary Union members employed at MGM Resorts have voted by 99% YES to ratify their new 5-year contract

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.82% ): OpenAI posts on X "We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo. We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this"

  • Morgan Stanley ( MS 0.25% ) co-president Andy Saperstein was diagnosed with cancer, according to Financial Times

  • Perion Network ( PERI 1.38% ) announces the appointment of CEO Tal Jacobson to the Board of Directors, replacing former CEO Doron Gerstel

  • Rio Tinto ( RIO 0.94% ) reaches court approved settlement with SEC regarding 2017 suit over the disclosure of impairment of Rio Tinto Coal Mozambique in 2012 year-end accounts

  • Starbucks ( SBUX 0.33% ) Organizing center nominates three candidates to Starbucks Board of Directors

  • Sutro Biopharma ( STRO 3.72% ) promotes Jane Chung as President and COO, effective Dec 1

  • Tesla ( TSLA 2.46% ) CEO Elon Musk says he will discuss partnership between TSLA and xAI with Board

  • Tesla ( TSLA 2.46% ): NYC investment chief wants Tesla to sanction Elon Musk unless he apologizes for his controversial comments, according to Reuters

M&A:

  • CRH Plc. ( CRH 0.11% ) agrees $1.1bn divestment of European lime operations

  • Freeline Therapeutics ( FRLN 10.29% ): Syncona to acquire Freeline Therapeutics Holdings for $6.50/share for each Freeline ADR

  • Textainer Group ( TGH 0.19% ) announces expiration of 'go-shop' period

Syndicate:

  • Northwest Pipe ( NWPX 0.15% ) files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • COMM +5.8%, HITI +5.6%, CERT +4.0%, AGL +1.2%, INFY +1.1%


  • Gapping down:

    • SOL -18.3%, GES -14.0%, DLO -12.8%, URBN -6.5%, DE -5.9%, ADSK -5.8%, JACK -3.5%, HPQ -2.2%, TGH -1.7%, DELL -1.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Applied Materials (AMAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $175

    • ASM Intl NV (ASMIY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic

    • Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura; tgt $145

    • Clorox (CLX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $145

    • GoDaddy (GDDY) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $124

    • Moog (MOG.A) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $141

    • Ovintiv (OVV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $52

    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo


  • Downgrades:

    • APA Corp. (APA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $37

    • Autodesk (ADSK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $215

    • Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Williams Trading

    • HSBC Holdings (HSBC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts

    • iQIYI (IQ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

    • Jacobs Engineering (J) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

    • Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $28

    • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $1.75


  • Others:

    • AmBev (ABEV) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies

    • American Fincl (AFG) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $125

    • Arch Capital (ACGL) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $91

    • Calidi Biotherapeutics (CLDI) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $11

    • Cincinnati Fincl (CINF) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $110

    • Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies

    • Dianthus Therapeutics (DNTH) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $23

    • GitLab (GTLB) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $55

    • KLA Corporation (KLAC) initiated with a Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $550

    • Lam Research (LRCX) initiated with a Buy at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $800

    • Markel Group (MKL) initiated with a Sell at Citigroup; tgt $1275

    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $251

    • Saia (SAIA) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $450

    • TD Synnex (SNX) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $105


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Nov 18 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 2.8%)

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Nov 18 (Briefing.com Consensus 227K; Prior 231K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Nov 11 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1865K)

  • 08:30 ET: Durable Orders for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus -3.1%; Prior 4.7%)

  • 08:30 ET: Durable Orders ex-transportation for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.5%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 60.9; Prior 60.4)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Nov 18 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 3.60M)

  • 12:00 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Nov 18 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +60 bcf)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Nov 20)

    • Morning: LEGN

    • Afternoon: A BRBR KEYS ZM


  • Tuesday (Nov 21)

    • Morning: ANF ADI BIDU BBY BURL CAL DKS DY EMBC GDS HIBB J KC KSS LOW MDT NJR

    • Afternoon: AEO ADSK DLO GES HPQ JACK JWN NVDA URBN


  • Wednesday (Nov 22)

    • Morning: DE

    • Afternoon: BZUN



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng UNCH, Shanghai Composite -0.8%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly lower note. The Bank of Japan once again reduced its scheduled bond buying plans. Meanwhile, the Japanese cabinet office lowered its view of the overall economy for the first time since January. Major state-owned banks in China have reportedly been acquiring dollars through onshore swap agreements and selling the proceeds in the spot currency market. Chinese government advisers are recommending more fiscal stimulus and a 2024 growth target between 4.5% and 5.5%, according to Reuters.

  • In economic data:

    • Singapore's Q3 GDP 1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last 0.1%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%)

    • Australia's October MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last 0.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.3%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%

  • India's Sensex: +0.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.1%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 148.76

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.1575

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 83.28

Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.4%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. The British government is expected to release its Autumn Budget statement this morning, which could include lower income taxes and national insurance fees, according to reports from Monday. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that supply shocks that fueled inflation are now subsiding, but the ECB remains ready to hike again if there are renewed risks of missing the inflation target. The ECB's financial stability review noted that stability is fragile, and it is critical to reach an agreement on region-wide fiscal rules. The German government is reportedly implementing a freeze on most new spending plans.

  • In economic data:

    • U.K.'s November CBI Industrial Trends Orders -35 (expected -25; last -26)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.4%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.4%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0901

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2535

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.8838

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