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22/09/23 Briefing



The S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 75 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 53 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Stock futures point to a higher open following yesterday's retreat. Elevated Treasury yields are top of mind for participants, along with the Fed's higher for longer messaging. 

The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 5.11% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.48%.

The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy stance, as expected; meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that China is looking at relaxing restrictions on foreign investment.

The UAW is set to expand its strike if no significant progress is made by noon today.

Eurozone's flash September Composite PMI improved from August, but remains below 50.0 (i.e. in contraction). At 9:45 a.m. ET, the preliminary September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global US Services PMI reports will be released.

In corporate news:

  • Apple (AAPL 174.76, +0.83, +0.5%): new iPhone 15 goes on sale today

  • McDonald's (MCD 273.44, +2.22, +0.8%): plans to up franchise royalty fees across its U.S. restaurants from 4% to 5% for operators opening new locations, according to CNBC

  • Squarespace (SQSP 28.15, +0.65, +2.4%): UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI 94.09, +1.73, +1.9%): UK CMA says it may approve updated Microsoft (MSFT) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) deal

  • HighPeak Energy (HPK 16.93, +1.05, +6.6%): CEO bought 500000 shares at $16.55-16.59 worth ~$8.284 mln

  • Amazon (AMZN 130.75, +1.46, +1.1%): provides Prime Video update - starting in early 2024, Prime Video shows and movies will include limited advertisements

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.5% (-3.4% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.3% (-0.7% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +1.6% (+0.5% for the week), India's Sensex: -0.3% (-2.7% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% (-3.6% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1% (-2.8% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's National CPI 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.3%) and National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.1%). Flash September Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (expected 49.9; last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 53.3 (last 54.3)

  • Australia's flash September Manufacturing PMI 48.2 (last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 50.5 (last 47.8)

  • New Zealand's Q3 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 80.2 (last 83.1). August trade deficit NZD2.29 bln (last deficit of NZD1.18 bln)

  • In news:

  • Australia's Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the seventh consecutive month in the flash reading for September while Japan's Manufacturing PMI was in contractionary territory for the fourth month in a row.

  • The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy stance. However, Bank of America expects negative interest rate and yield curve control policies to be ended early next year.

  • Chevron appears to be nearing a contract agreement with striking LNG workers.

  • Central banks in Philippines and Indonesia made no changes to their policy rates.

  • Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.'s FTSE (+0.6%) outperforms with financials contributing to the strength. STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% (-1.8% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.1% (-2.1% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (+0.2% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.5% (-2.7% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.4% (+0.1% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (+0.5% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's flash September Manufacturing PMI 43.4 (expected 44.0; last 43.5) and flash Services PMI 48.4 (expected 47.7; last 47.9)

  • Germany's flash September Manufacturing PMI 39.8 (expected 39.5; last 39.1) and flash Services PMI 49.8 (expected 47.2; last 47.3)

  • U.K.'s flash September Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 43.0; last 43.0) and flash Services PMI 47.2 (expected 49.2; last 49.5). September CBI Industrial Trends Orders -18 (expected -18; last -15). August Retail Sales 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.1%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last -3.1%). August Core Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, as expected (last -1.4%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.3%; last -3.3%)

  • France's flash September Manufacturing PMI 43.6 (expected 46.0; last 46.0) and flash Services PMI 43.9 (expected 46.0; last 46.0)

  • Spain's Q2 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 4.2%)

  • In news:

  • Barclays lowered its terminal rate forecast for the Bank of England to 5.25% from 5.50%, expecting the BoE to remain at the peak rate until the middle of next year.

  • Meanwhile, Citigroup sees only a 35% chance of another rate hike. Flash September Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from France showed an accelerating contraction, stoking fears about the strength of near-term growth.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +10 @ 4,340

  • DJIA Futures: +32 @ 34,102

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +61 @ 14,755

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC -0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.5%, Hang Seng +2.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.6%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.91 @ 90.54

  • Nat Gas +0.007 @ 2.6917

  • Gold +6.70 @ 1946.30

  • Silver +0.330 @ 24.017

  • Copper +0.0297 @ 3.7257


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) says Q3 operating and financial results remain in line with expectations

  • Scholastic Corp (SCHL) reports Q1 (Aug) results, misses on revs (single est); reaffirms FY24 guidance

  • W.P. Carey (WPC) releases updated presentation that corrects a typographical error of the 2023 AFFO guidance to range of $5.18-5.26

News:

  • Commerce Department finalizing rules to prevent China from accessing semiconductor subsidies, according to Reuters

  • Striking autoworkers seeking 32-hour work week, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • 3D Systems (DDD) appoints Andrew Johnson as interim CFO, effective October 16

  • Amazon (AMZN) provides Prime Video update - starting in early 2024, Prime Video shows and movies will include limited advertisements

  • Anterix's (ATEX) Board authorized new $250 mln share repurchase program

  • ASLAN Pharmaceuticals (ASLN) Announces Acceptance of Late Breaker Abstract on Eblasakimab Phase 2b Results as Oral Presentation and Three Additional Abstracts at 32nd European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology Congress

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) reports first Phase III results for datopotamab deruxtecan; Plans for global regulatory submissions underway

  • Avinger (AVGR) determined again to increase the amount available for sale under the ATM Agreement, up to an additional aggregate offering price of $320,507

  • BeiGene (BGNE): European Commission approves TEVIMBRA as therapy for the treatment of patients with metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

  • BorgWarner (BWA) during its Q2 earnings call: impact of the initial UAW strikes on sales is currently expected to be relatively modest

  • Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) announces perioperative regimen of Neoadjuvant Opdivo (nivolumab) and Chemotherapy followed by adjuvant Opdivo significantly improves event-free survival in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer

  • eBay (EBAY) issues statement regarding Adevinta comments

  • Faraday Future (FFIE) Announces Management Stock Purchase Plan

  • General Motors (GM): CNBC's Phil LeBeau saying UAW President Fain may announce new strikes this morning, strikes would start at noonET

  • INNOVATE Corp (VATE) COO Suzi Herbst to resign, effective October 20

  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) receives European Commission approval for Enrylaze

  • Lovesac (LOVE) confirms notification from Nasdaq related to delayed form 10-Q Filing; has 60 calendar days (until November 17, 2023) to submit a plan to regain compliance

  • LPL Financial (LPLA) reports monthly activity report for August 2023; total advisory and brokerage assets decreased 0.6% from the end of July to $1.27 trillion

  • Masco (MAS) announces election of Richard Westenberg as Vice President, CFO, effective October 16, 2023

  • McDonald's (MCD) plans to up franchise royalty fees across its U.S. restaurants from 4% to 5% for operators opening new locations, according to CNBC

  • Merck (MRK) reports Phase 3 KEYNOTE-A39/EV-302 trial met dual primary endpoints of Overall Survival and Progression-Free Survival in certain patients with previously untreated locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer

  • Merck (MRK) and Eisai provide update on two Phase 3 trials evaluating KEYTRUDA Plus LENVIMA in patients with certain types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer

  • MGM Resorts (MGM) recovers from cyberattack, according to AP

  • Mission Produce (AVO) COO Timothy A. Bulow to depart, effective September 30; CEO Stephen J. Barnard, will assume Mr. Bulow's duties

  • Mondee Holdings (MOND) announces inaugural share repurchase program of up to $30 mln

  • Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) announces highlights of upcoming Investor Day scheduled for Tuesday December 12, 2023, including $1 bln customer pipeline

  • O-I Glass (OI) closing its Waco, TX glass container plant on or after October 16; estimated associated costs of $60 mln in Q3

  • Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC) opens its Battery Innovation Center in Germany

  • PNM Resources (PNM) announces unanimous settlement agreement reached for San Juan credits

  • PROG Holdings (PRG) subsidiary Progressive Leasing experienced a cybersecurity incident affecting it systems; does not expect it to have a material effect on financials

  • Prudential (PUK) CFO resigned, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Purple Innovation (PRPL) appoints Tod Vogensen as CFO, effective October 16

  • QuidelOrtho (QDEL) announces that it has been granted CLIA Waiver from the U.S. FDA for Sofia 2 SARS Antigen+ FIA

  • Renalytix (RNLX) signed a contract with BlueCross and BlueShield of Texas to expand insurance coverage of KidneyIntelX in the state of Texas

  • Seagen (SGEN) and Merck (MRK) report PADCEV and KEYTRUDA significantly improve Overall Survival and Progression-Free Survival in patients with previously untreated advanced bladder cancer in Pivotal Phase 3 EV-302Trial

  • Sempra Energy (SRE): Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 Project receives Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorization

  • Snapchat (SNAP) seeing premium user growth, according to Bloomberg

  • Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) entered into a Repurchase Agreement with OCM XL Holdings pursuant to which the Company agreed to purchase 10 mln of its common shares

  • Texas Instruments (TXN) increases quarterly cash dividend 5% to $1.30/share from $1.24/share

  • United Airlines (UAL) promotes Michael Leskinen to CFO

  • Walt Disney (DIS): Uncertainty about Disney's ability to sell ABC, according to the

  • Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) announces progress of property delivery to its customers

  • Zymeworks (ZYME) and BeiGene terminate collaboration agreement relating to R&D and commercialization of zanidatamab zovodotin

M&A:

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI): UK CMA provides update on approval Microsoft (MSFT)/ Activision Blizzard

  • ATS Corp (ATS) to acquire Avidity Science for $195 mln

  • Salesforce (CRM) to acquire Airkit.ai, a creator of AI powered customer service applications; financial details not disclosed; to close in second-half of FY24

  • U.S. Steel (X): Canada's Stelco Holdings weighs bid for the company, according to Bloomberg

  • West Fraser (WFG) to sell Quesnel River Pulp mill in Quesnel, British Columbia and its Slave Lake Pulp mill in Slave Lake, Alberta to Atlas

Syndicate:

  • Compass Minerals (CMP) files for 7,034,609 shares of common stock by selling shareholder

  • First Busey Corp (BUSE) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) files for 9,411,766 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants; also files for 14,117,649 shares of common stock, relates to warrants

  • One Liberty Properties (OLP) enters into Equity Distribution Agreement with B. Riley Securities to sell shares of common stock up to $50 mln

IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • FFIE +5.7%, HPK +5.4%, SGEN +3.2%, ZYME+2.8%, LUNR +2.7%, AZN +2.6%, DDD +2.4%, NVTS +2.2%, PRPL +1.9%, EBAY +1.9%, ATVI+1.8%, X +1.5%, TXN +0.7%

  • Gapping down:

  • SCHL -19.4%, AVGR -6.9%, VATE -1.3%, FULT -0.7%, CMP -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Coeur Mining (CDE) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $4

  • Wayfair (W) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein; tgt raised to $65

  • Yum China (YUMC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $71.30

  • Downgrades:

  • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $33

  • Others:

  • Alector (ALEC) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $13

  • CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCCS) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $14

  • Hesai Group (HSAI) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $14.80

  • Ikena Oncology (IKNA) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $11

  • Instacart (CART) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $521

  • Nextracker (NXT) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $52

  • ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $8

  • Ralph Lauren (RL) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $135

  • Ryan Specialty Group (RYAN) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $59

Econ Data:

  • 09:45 ET: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Prelim for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 47.9)

  • 09:45 ET: S&P Global US Services PMI - Prelim for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 50.5)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Sep 18)

  • Afternoon: SFIX

  • Tuesday (Sep 19)

  • Morning: APOG AZO DAVA

  • Afternoon:  SCS

  • Wednesday (Sep 20)

  • Morning:  GIS

  • Afternoon:  FDX KBH

  • Thursday (Sep 21)

  • Morning: DRI FDS

 

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.5%, Hang Seng +2.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.6%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Australia's Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the seventh consecutive month in the flash reading for September while Japan's Manufacturing PMI was in contractionary territory for the fourth month in a row. The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy stance. However, Bank of America expects negative interest rate and yield curve control policies to be ended early next year. Chevron appears to be nearing a contract agreement with striking LNG workers. Central banks in Philippines and Indonesia made no changes to their policy rates.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's National CPI 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.3%) and National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.1%). Flash September Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (expected 49.9; last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 53.3 (last 54.3)

  • Australia's flash September Manufacturing PMI 48.2 (last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 50.5 (last 47.8)

  • New Zealand's Q3 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 80.2 (last 83.1). August trade deficit NZD2.29 bln (last deficit of NZD1.18 bln)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.5% (-3.4% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.3% (-0.7% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +1.6% (+0.5% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: -0.3% (-2.7% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% (-3.6% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1% (-2.8%for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.5% to 148.26

  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.3043

  • USD/INR: -0.2% to 82.94

 

Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC -0.5%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.'s FTSE (+0.6%) outperforms with financials contributing to the strength. Barclays lowered its terminal rate forecast for the Bank of England to 5.25% from 5.50%, expecting the BoE to remain at the peak rate until the middle of next year. Meanwhile, Citigroup sees only a 35% chance of another rate hike. Flash September Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from France showed an accelerating contraction, stoking fears about the strength of near-term growth.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's flash September Manufacturing PMI 43.4 (expected 44.0; last 43.5) and flash Services PMI 48.4 (expected 47.7; last 47.9)

  • Germany's flash September Manufacturing PMI 39.8 (expected 39.5; last 39.1) and flash Services PMI 49.8 (expected 47.2; last 47.3)

  • U.K.'s flash September Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 43.0; last 43.0) and flash Services PMI 47.2 (expected 49.2; last 49.5). September CBI Industrial Trends Orders -18 (expected -18; last -15). August Retail Sales 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.1%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last -3.1%). August Core Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, as expected (last -1.4%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.3%; last -3.3%)

  • France's flash September Manufacturing PMI 43.6 (expected 46.0; last 46.0) and flash Services PMI 43.9 (expected 46.0; last 46.0)

  • Spain's Q2 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 4.2%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% (-1.8% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: -0.1% (-2.1% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (+0.2% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.5% (-2.7% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.4% (+0.1% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (+0.5% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.0639

  • GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.2251

  • USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.9066

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