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22/06/22 Briefing




The S&P 500 futures are down 51 points and are trading 1.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 178 points and are trading 1.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 353  points and are trading 1.1% below fair value.

There has been no follow through to yesterday's rebound effort, which is perhaps the biggest reason for the drop in the futures market this morning. The inclination to sell quickly into strength is undercutting investor sentiment once again along with concerns about economic prospects.

The latter have shown up this morning in weakening commodity prices -- copper futures are down 3.1% to $3.91/lb and WTI crude futures are down 4.8% to $104.73/bbl -- and strengthening prices in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield is down 10 basis points to 3.12% while the 10-yr note yield is down 11 basis points to 3.20%.

The weakness in gasoline futures (-2.1% to $3.71/gal) is also telling, as it comes on top of reports that President Biden is calling on Congress to suspend the national gas tax. Doing so could help provide some price relief at the pump, but at the same time, the lower prices would stoke demand. Reports indicate this proposal could hit a wall in Congress.

Corporate news is limited today and is not serving as a market driver. A potential driver, though, will be Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee at 9:30 a.m. ET. Nervousness ahead of the report, and Q&A session, is likely contributing to this morning's cautious-minded tone.

In corporate news:

  • Airbnb (ABNB 99.20, -3.07, -3.0%): JMP Securities downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform

  • Winnebago (WGO 47.00, +1.24, +2.7%): beats by $1.17, beats on revs

  • La-Z-Boy (LZB 24.90, +2.17, +9.6%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; expects delivered sales of +7-10% yr/yr in JulQ

  • Korn/Ferry (KFY 54.25, +0.41, +0.8%): beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei -0.4%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2.6%; China's Shanghai Composite -1.2%; India's Sensex -1.4%; South Korea's Kospi -2.7%; and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.3%. 

  • In economic data:

  • Australia's May MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.2%)

  • New Zealand's May trade surplus NZD263 mln (last surplus of NZD440 mln). May Credit Card Spending 2.2% yr/yr (last 1.3%)

  • In news:

  • The Bank of Japan's policy minutes from the April meeting showed an agreement to step up easing efforts without hesitation, if needed.

  • Property developers in China are reportedly planning to meet with banks in July to discuss relief measures.

  • Shanghai's power consumption in June has reportedly been running at about 92% of last year's levels.

  • Major European indices trade lower across the board. STOXX Europe 600 -1.4%; Germany's DAX -1.9%; UK's FTSE 100 -1.2%; France's CAC 40 -1.6%; Italy's FTSE MIB -1.9%; and Spain's IBEX 35 -1.4%. 

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s May CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 2.5%); 9.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 9.0%). May Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%); 5.9% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%). May Input PPI 2.1% m/m (expected 1.9%; last 2.7%) and Output PPI 1.6% m/m (expected 1.5%; last 2.8%)

  • In news:

  • The U.K.'s CPI was up 9.1% yr/yr in May, representing the sharpest pace of increase in 40 years.

  • British Deputy Prime Minister Raab said that giving in to demands of striking railroad workers would add to inflation.

  • France's central bank lowered its growth forecast for France to 2.3% from 3.4% while increasing the inflation forecast to 5.6% from 3.7%.

  • Italy is planning to spend another EUR3 bln to offset the impact of higher energy bills.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -51 @ 3,714

  • DJIA Futures: -377 @ 30,154

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -178 @ 11,368

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.9%, FTSE -1.2%, CAC -1.6%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -2.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -4.89 @ 104.63

  • Nat Gas -0.05 @ 6.76

  • Gold +1.90 @ 1840.70

  • Silver -0.32  @ 21.45

  • Copper -0.13 @ 3.91

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings:

  • Blucora (BCOR) reaffirms FY22 guidance

  • Korn/Ferry (KFY) beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • La-Z-Boy (LZB) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; expects delivered sales of +7-10% yr/yr in JulQ

  • Sonoco Products (SON) raises Q2 EPS above consensus

  • Winnebago (WGO) beats by $1.17, beats on revs

  • General News:

  • President Biden calls for a three-month federal gas tax holiday (requires Congressional approval)

  • IEA head Fatih Birol warns Europe to prepare for shutdown of Russian gas exports, according to FT

  • Senate votes 64-34 on procedural measure to begin debate on gun safety bill that would give incentives for states to pass red flag laws and provide funding for school security; full passage expected late this week

  • FDA announces plans for proposed rule to reduce addictiveness of cigarettes and other combusted tobacco products

  • India wants oil companies to purchase Russian oil, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will meet with oil executives tomorrow, according to The Hill

  • ANI Pharma (ANIP) announces FDA approval and imminent launch of clorazepate dipotassium tablets USP

  • Blackstone (BX) granted permission to open Australia casino, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) doubled its previously announced repurchase program authorization from $1 bln to up to $2 bln in common stock and/or warrants through year-end 2023

  • Franchise Group in discussions to keep Kohl's (KSS) management after sale, according to Reuters

  • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) submits Biologics License Application to FDA seeking approval of B-VEC

  • Merck (MRK): FDA approves Merck's VAXNEUVANCE (pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine) for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease in infants and children

  • Toyota (TM) will lower global production by 50,000 units, according to Reuters

  • M&A:

  • Bio-Techne (TECH) to acquire Namocell; anticipates the acquisition to close in the first quarter of its fiscal 2023

  • Evoqua Water (AQUA) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire privately-held Smith Engineering, Inc.; financial terms were not disclosed

  • First Bancorp (FBNC) to acquire GrandSouth Bank in all-stock deal worth $181.1 mln

  • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) divests its Engineered Wood Products business for $210 mln

  • Ocean Bio-Chem (OBCI): OneWater Marine (ONEW) to acquire Ocean Bio-Chem for $13.08 per share, in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $125 million

  • ProFrac Holding (PFHC) acquires U.S. Well Services (USWS)

  • Syndicate

  • Fidelity Nat'l Info (FIS) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) files for 485,526,872 share common stock offering related to warrants

  • Noah Holdings (NOAH) files for ordinary stock offering, no amount given

  • Ormat Tech (ORA) intends to offer $350 mln of Green Convertible Senior Notes

  • IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • ENTA +8.4%, LZB +8.1%, HITI +5.6%, AVT +3.2%, PRTK +3.2%, SB +2.9%, BMRN +2%, BTG +1.4%, MATW +1.3%, PLM +1.1%, EVA +0.5%

  • Gapping down:

  • MFGP -17.6%, USO -4.2%, ORA -3.8%, BBAI -2.6%, DK -2.6%, NOAH -2.4%, PFHC -2%, GLPG -1.9%, QQQ -1.6%, IWM -1.5%, SPY -1.4%, DIA -1.2%, PFE -1%, FIS -1%, MRK -0.8%, MO -0.8%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Brixmor Property (BRX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $25

  • Cigna (CI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $296

  • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $23

  • Equity Residential (EQR) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $79

  • Extra Space Storage (EXR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $193

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $46

  • NatWest Group plc (NWG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Noah Holdings (NOAH) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $22

  • Palomar Holdings (PLMR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $70

  • PNM Resources (PNM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $52

  • Sensata Tech (ST) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $55

  • SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $118

  • Summit Materials (SUM) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $31

  • Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $28

  • Welltower (WELL) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $89

  • Downgrades:

  • Airbnb (ABNB) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities

  • Anthem (ANTM) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $533

  • ArcelorMittal (MT) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $58

  • Boston Beer Co (SAM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt lowered to $340

  • Burlington Stores (BURL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; tgt $175

  • Dow (DOW) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $49

  • GMS (GMS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $46

  • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $20

  • Installed Building Products (IBP) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $71

  • Jack In The Box (JACK) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; tgt $68

  • JELD-WEN (JELD) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $12

  • Medical Properties Trust (MPW) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $18

  • NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Seaport Research Partners

  • PulteGroup (PHM) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $41

  • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $85

  • Others:

  • Advanced Micro (AMD) resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $103

  • Akoya Biosciences (AKYA) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $16

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) resumed with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities

  • Celularity (CELU) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $15

  • Expedia Group (EXPE) resumed with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) initiated with an Outperform at Daiwa Securities

  • ProFrac Holding (PFHC) initiated with a Buy at Johnson Rice; tgt $31

  • Taiwan Semi (TSM) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index

  • 09:30 ET: Fed Chair Powell Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Senate Banking Committee

  • Earnings:

  • Tuesday (Jun 21)

  • Morning: LEN

  • Afternoon: LZB

  • Wednesday (Jun 22)

  • Morning: KFY WGO

  • Afternoon:  FUL KBH SCS WOR

  • Thursday (Jun 23)

  • Morning: ACN APOG DRI FDS GMS RAD

  • Afternoon: BB CAMP FDX SWBI

  • Friday (Jun 24)

  • Morning: KMX CCL

  • Afternoon: None

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -2.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a lower note. The Bank of Japan's policy minutes from the April meeting showed an agreement to step up easing efforts without hesitation, if needed. Property developers in China are reportedly planning to meet with banks in July to discuss relief measures. Shanghai's power consumption in June has reportedly been running at about 92% of last year's levels.

  • In economic data:

  • Australia's May MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.2%)

  • New Zealand's May trade surplus NZD263 mln (last surplus of NZD440 mln). May Credit Card Spending 2.2% yr/yr (last 1.3%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.2% 

  • India's Sensex: -1.4%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -2.7%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.4% to 136.13

  • USD/CNH: +0.4% to 6.7181

  • USD/INR: +0.3% to 78.31

Europe: DAX -1.9%, FTSE -1.2%, CAC -1.6%

Major European indices trade lower across the board. The U.K.'s CPI was up 9.1% yr/yr in May, representing the sharpest pace of increase in 40 years. British Deputy Prime Minister Raab said that giving in to demands of striking railroad workers would add to inflation. France's central bank lowered its growth forecast for France to 2.3% from 3.4% while increasing the inflation forecast to 5.6% from 3.7%. Italy is planning to spend another EUR3 bln to offset the impact of higher energy bills.

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s May CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 2.5%); 9.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 9.0%). May Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%); 5.9% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%). May Input PPI 2.1% m/m (expected 1.9%; last 2.7%) and Output PPI 1.6% m/m (expected 1.5%; last 2.8%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.9%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.2%

  • France's CAC 40: -1.6%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.9%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.4%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0525

  • GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.2252

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.9647

 

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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures