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22/03/23 Brefing

Updated: Mar 24, 2023

The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 14 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

The equity futures market has experienced mixed price action this morning, but moves are modest in scope due to investors lacking conviction ahead of the Fed's FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET todayand Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. As a reminder, today's meeting will also feature the release of an updated Summary of Economic Projections. 

The U.K.'s February Consumer Price Index showed a faster pace of acceleration in inflation than expected, rising 1.1% month/month versus the expected 0.6% increase. Also, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that she has not seen clear evidence that inflation is trending down and that she is not committed to any rate hikes or a pause yet.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 3.0% with refinancing applications increasing 5.0% and purchase applications rising 2.0%. Other economic data today is limited to the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior 1.55 million). 

The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.22% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.62. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.07.

Energy complex futures are trending lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.3% to $69.43/bbl and natural gas futures are down 3.9% to $2.39/mmbtu. 

In corporate news:

  • Boeing (BA 201.05, -3.65, -1.8%): has secured order of 21 737 MAX jets from Japan Airlines, according to Reuters

  • GameStop (GME 26.73, +9.08, +51.4%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs

  • Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF 9.41, -0.76, -7.5%): misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • NIKE (NKE 123.50, -2.11, -1.7%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs, gross margin decreased 330 bps, worse than the 200-250 bps decline it guided for; Guides to MayQ revs of flat-to-low single-digits

  • Winnebago (WGO 60.51, +2.26, +3.9%): beats by $0.63, beats on revs

  • HealthEquity (HQY 61.50, +3.24, +5.6%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; mid-point of FY24 EPS and revs guidance above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.7%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8%.

    • In economic data:

      • Australia's February Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.1%)

      • New Zealand's Q1 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 77.7 (last 75.6)

    • In news:

      • Japan's chief cabinet secretary Matsuno said that more than JPY2 trln will be allocated to offset the impact of rising prices.

      • The U.S. and South Korea will hold their most expansive military drills in June.

      • Defense officials from China and Australia held their first formal meeting since 2019.

  • Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%, Germany's DAX: +0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH, France's CAC 40: +0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.4%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's January Current Account surplus EUR17.00 bln (expected surplus of EUR16.50 bln; last surplus of EUR13.00 bln)

      • U.K.'s February CPI 1.1% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.6%); 10.4% yr/yr (expected 9.9%; last 10.1%). Core CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -0.9%); 6.2% yr/yr (expected 5.7%; last 5.8%). February Input PPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%) and Output PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.5%)

    • In news:

      • European Central Bank President Lagarde said that she has not seen clear evidence that inflation is trending down and that she is not committed to any rate hikes or a pause yet.

      • Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Lane said that there are reasons to believe that underlying inflation will ease over time.

      • Germany's council of economic advisors expects 2023 domestic inflation to reach 6.6% and slow to 3.0% in 2024.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -2 @ 4,001

  • DJIA Futures: -3 @ 32,574

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -28 @ 12,713

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE UNCH, CAC +0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei CLOSED, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.41 @ 69.26

  • Nat Gas -0.112 @ 2.236

  • Gold +3.70 @ 1944.80

  • Silver +0.118 @ 22.543

  • Copper +0.0465 @ 4.0405


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • AAR Corp (AIR) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; encouraged by optimism from airline customers

  • Array Tech (ARRY) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY23EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Baozun (BZUN) misses by RMB0.52, misses on revs

  • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) reports Q2 results; raises outlook

  • GameStop (GME) beats by $0.29, beats on revs

  • Greenbrier (GBX) receives new rail car orders in Q2; sees Q2 outlook above consensus

  • HealthEquity (HQY) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; mid-point of FY24EPS and revs guidance above consensus

  • NIKE (NKE) beats by $0.24, beats on revs, gross margin decreased 330 bps, worse than the 200-250 bps decline it guided for; Guides to MayQ revs of flat-to-low single-digits

  • Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY24EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; Q4 comps +3.0% above guidance

  • Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY24revs below consensus

  • Sonoco Products (SON) raises Q1 EPS guidance

  • Winnebago (WGO) beats by $0.63, beats on revs

News:

  • Fed will choose between hiking 25 basis points or pausing today, according to Bloomberg

  • Neither Republicans or Democrats are in a rush to push legislation to address banking failures amid deep political divisions, according to Bloomberg

  • House Energy and Commerce Committee releases testimony of TikTok CEO Shou Chew; hearing will take place tomorrow at 10:00 ET

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that inflation is still too high; February UK CPI was 10.4% versus 10.1% last year

  • SEC decides to postpone vote on private equity rule, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • China approves first messenger RNA vaccine for COVID, according to Reuters

  • 89bio's (ETNB) Phase 2b ENLIVEN Trial of Pegozafermin in Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Achieved High Statistical Significance on Both Primary Histology Endpoints with Weekly (QW) and Every-Two-Week (Q2W) Dosing at 24 Weeks

  • Ares Management (ARES) and Mubadala announce the creation of a joint venture to invest in global credit secondaries opportunities

  • Astellas (ALPMY) Announces Positive Findings from Phase 3 GLOW Trial of Zolbetuximab during March ASCO Plenary Series

  • Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL): FDA has approved its Pre-Launch Activities Importation Requests (PLAIR) for LUMRYZ

  • Baidu (BIDU) discloses that no shareholder other than Handsome Reward Limited and BlackRock (BLK) owns more than 5% of the Company's outstanding shares

  • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) and Novaliq announce publication of second pivotal phase 3 data on NOV03in American Journal of Ophthalmology

  • Biohaven (BHVN) acquired global rights for the development of Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) and Janus Kinase 1 (JAK1) for the treatment of brain disorders

  • BlueLinx (BXC) elects Shyam Reddy as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately

  • Boeing (BA) has secured order of 21 737 MAX jets from Japan Airlines, according to Reuters

  • Ellington Financial (EFC) authorizes up to $50 mln for share repurchases

  • Ericsson (ERIC) pleaded guilty in bribery case, according to Bloomberg

  • F&G Annuities & Life (FG) approves new three-year share repurchase program of up to $25 mln

  • First Republic (FRC): US government could back First Republic rescue deal, according to Bloomberg

  • Hercules Capital (HTGC) increases its committed letter of credit facility with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMFG)

  • Kingsway Fin (KFS) authorizes up to $10 mln for share repurchases; will have a one-year term

  • Lazard (LAZ) is helping First Republic (FRC) with options, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Marvel (MRVL) to eliminate 4% of workforce, according to Bloomberg

  • Mesoblast (MESO): FDA schedules pre-license inspection of Remestemcel-L manufacturing

  • NIO (NIO) very confident that it will hit sales goal, according to Bloomberg interview, according to Bloomberg

  • Olin (OLN) ceases Cumene facility operations and solid epoxy resin production in a South Korean and Brazilian city in connection with its restructuring program

  • PaySign (PAYS) announces $5 mln stock repurchase program

  • Regeneron Pharma (REGN): FDA approves first-in-class Evkeeza for young children with ultra-rare form of high cholesterol

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) enters into new time charter-out agreement with total fixed revenue of $43.8 mln; estimated start date is April 23

  • Sealed Air (SEE) appoints Dustin Semach as CFO designate, effective April 17, 2023

  • Semler Scientific (SMLR) CEO Doug Murphy-Chutorian, M.D. to step down from position; company appoints Wayne T. Pan, M.D., Ph.D., M.B.A. as new CEO

  • Teekay Corporation (TK) completes $30 million share repurchase program and announces new share repurchase program

  • UBS AG (UBS) issues announcement of tender offer of certain UBS Group AG senior unsecured bail-in notes

  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) issues statement on occupation by CEMEX (CX) of its property in Mexico

M&A:

  • Playtika (PLTK): Preliminary discussions between Rovio and Playtika have ended

  • Stratasys (SSYS) Board of Directors unanimously rejects unsolicited proposal from Nano Dimension (NNDM)

Syndicate:

  • BRC Inc. (BRCC) files $500 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • BuzzFeed (BZFD) files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • CalAmp (CAMP) files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • DiamondHead Holdings Corp. (DHHC) announces PIPE investment

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX) prices offering of 2,479,391 shares of its common stock at $161.33 per share

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • GME +42.5%, SMLR +13.2%, KFS +6.4%, SSYS+5.3%, HQY +4.7%, KRTX +3.2%, SON +2.3%, EFC+1.4%, FG +1.1%, EPAC +1.1%

  • Gapping down:

    • BZUN -5.1%, CAMP -4.3%, PEB -3%, ARRY -2.9%, AIR -2.3%, MESO -1%, UAA -0.9%, NNDM -0.8%, MCHP -0.6%, NKE -0.4%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list:

  • Upgrades

    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt $275

    • Knight-Swift (KNX) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $65

    • Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $20

    • PulteGroup (PHM) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $64

    • Semtech (SMTC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt raised to $52

  • Downgrades:

    • Altimmune (ALT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $6

    • Antero Resources (AR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $28

    • Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point; tgt lowered to $17

    • Con Edison ((ED) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; tgt $104

    • D.R. Horton (DHI) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Host Hotels (HST) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point; tgt lowered to $18

    • Luminar Technologies (LAZR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt $5

    • Sunstone Hotel (SHO) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Compass Point; tgt lowered to $9

  • Others:

    • Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $80

    • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $33

    • New York Community (NYCB) resumed with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $13

  • Econ Data:

    • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Mar 18 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 6.5%)

    • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Mar 18 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.55M)

    • 14:00 ET: FOMC Rate Decision (Briefing.comConsensus 4.75-5.00%; Prior 4.50-4.75%)

  • Earnings:

    • Monday (Mar 20)

      • Morning:  FL PDD

    • Tuesday (Mar 21)

      • Morning: CSIQ HUYA ONON TME

      • Afternoon:  AIR ARRY GME NKE

    • Wednesday (Mar 22)

      • Morning:  BZUN OLLI WOOF WGO

      • Afternoon:  CHWY KBH MLKN PHR SCS WOR

    • Thursday (Mar 23)

      • Morning: ACN CMC DRI FDS GIS

      • Afternoon:  HRTX OXM CURV

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.9%, Hang Seng +1.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a higher note. Japan's chief cabinet secretary Matsuno said that more than JPY2 trln will be allocated to offset the impact of rising prices. The U.S. and South Korea will hold their most expansive military drills in June. Defense officials from China and Australia held their first formal meeting since 2019.

  • In economic data:

    • Australia's February Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.1%)

    • New Zealand's Q1 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 77.7 (last 75.6)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.9%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.7%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 132.86

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.8823

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 82.60

 

Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE UNCH, CAC +0.4%

Major European indices trade in the green. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that she has not seen clear evidence that inflation is trending down and that she is not committed to any rate hikes or a pause yet. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Lane said that there are reasons to believe that underlying inflation will ease over time. Germany's council of economic advisors expects 2023 domestic inflation to reach 6.6% and slow to 3.0% in 2024.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's January Current Account surplus EUR17.00 bln (expected surplus of EUR16.50 bln; last surplus of EUR13.00 bln)

    • U.K.'s February CPI 1.1% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.6%); 10.4% yr/yr (expected 9.9%; last 10.1%). Core CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -0.9%); 6.2% yr/yr (expected 5.7%; last 5.8%). February Input PPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%) and Output PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.5%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.7%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH

  • France's CAC 40: +0.4%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.4%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0791

  • GBP/USD: +0.5% to 1.2283

  • USD/CHF: UNCH at 0.9221


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