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20/12/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 42 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 83 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Equity futures are sliding after the market's win streak. The downside bias is due in part to normal consolidation after the huge run off late October lows. 

Geopolitical angst is also part of the narrative today after reports that the US and allies are mulling possible military strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to Bloomberg. Also, Chinese President Xi warned President Biden that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China, but timing is undecided, according to NBC News. 

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 1.5% for the week with refinance applications falling 2.0% and purchase applications declining 1.0%. 

Other data today include:

  • 08:30 ET: Q3 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$201.0B; Prior -$212.1B)

  • 10:00 ET: November Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 3.80M; Prior 3.79M)

  • 10:00 ET: December Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 104.0; Prior 102.0)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil inventories (Prior -4.26M)

Treasury yields are lower in front of this mornig's data, responding to the aforementioned geopolitical angst, along with some market-friendly CPI data for November out of the UK, and some economic growth worries following disappointing FY24 revenue guidance from FedEx. The 2-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.37% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.88%.

In corporate news:

  • FedEx (FDX 249.70, -30.30, -10.8%): misses by $0.20, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, lower FY24 revenue outlook

  • General Mills (GIS 64.04, -2.67, -4.0%): beats by $0.09, misses on revs, lowers FY24 organic revenue and adjusted EPS growth forecast

  • Guardant Health (GH 25.98, -1.92, -6.9%): announces that the FDA Advisory Panel is tentatively scheduled to review the premarket approval application for the company's Shield blood test to screen for colorectal cancer on March 28, 2024

  • Alibaba (BABA 74.38, -0.01, -0.01%): announces change of CEO of Taobao and Tmall Group

  • Southwest Air (LUV 29.25, -0.09, -0.3%): and pilots' union reportedly reach new preliminary labor deal, according to CNBC

  • Mosaic (MOS 37.94, -0.21, -0.6%): releases October and November revenue and sales volumes

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher on Wednesday, although China's Shanghai Composite (-1.0%) and India's Sensex (-1.3%) suffered a down day. Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0%, India's Sensex: -1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.8%, Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Exports -0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%) and Imports -11.9% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -12.5%)

  • Australia's November MI Leading Index 0.1% (last 0.0%)

  • In news:

  • The People's Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively, as expected.

  • South Korea's Kospi (+1.8%) outperformed with the Bank of Korea (BOK) saying it thinks the inflation rate will hit 2% target by the end of 2024. Minutes from the November BOK meeting indicated the bank's policy rate is restrictive enough.

  • Coming off the Bank of Japan's decision yesterday to stick with its negative interest rate policy, the Nikkei (+1.5%) had a good day in spite of some weaker than expected export and import activity for November.

  • CNN reports that Malaysia has banned ships with Israeli flags, and ships headed to Israel, from docking at Malaysian ports in response to Israel's actions against Palestinian civilians.

  • Major European indices are mixed with modest changes on either side of unchanged. STOXX Europe 600: flat, Germany's DAX: -0.1%, UK's FTSE 100: +0.6%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's October Current Account EUR33.8B (expected EUR27.0B; last EUR31.2B); October Construction Output -0.97% (last 0.89%)

  • UK's November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%) and 3.9% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.6%); November Car Registration 2.0% m/m (last -43.7%) and 9.5% yr/yr (last 14.3%); November RPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.2%) and 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 6.1%)

  • Italy's November Car Registration 0.1% m/m (last 2.1%) and 16.2% yr/yr (last 20.0%)

  • Germany's November PPI -0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -0.1%) and -7.9% yr/yr (last -11.0%); November Car Registration 12.2% m/m (last -2.5%) and -5.7% yr/yr (last 4.9%); January GfK German Consumer Climate -25.1 (expected -27.0; last -27.6)

  • France's Car Registration 0.2% m/m (last -2.5%) and 14.0% yr/yr (last 21.9%)

  • In news:

  • The UK's FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is outperforming, however, following some encouraging CPI data for November. Headline CPI was up 3.9% yr/yr, versus 4.6% in October, hitting a two-year low. The inflation data has fueled a rally in gilts with the 10-yr yield down 12 basis points to 3.54%.

  • In turn, falling market rates and budding rate-cut expectations have pressured the pound, which is down 0.6% against the dollar at 1.2657.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -10 @ 4,758

  • DJIA Futures: -70 @ 37,488

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -41 @ 16,771

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.98 @ 74.92

  • Nat Gas 0.0000 @ 2.492

  • Gold -5.10 @ 2047.00

  • Silver -0.031 @ 24.290

  • Copper +0.0033 @ 3.9013

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Enerpac Tool Group (

  • Enersys (

  • FedEx (

  • General Mills (

  • Mosaic (

  • Public Service (

  • Steelcase (

  • Winnebago (

  • Worthington Enterprises (

News:

  • US and allies mulling possible military strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to Bloomberg

  • Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to hold office again because of the 14th amendment and will be removed from the state's ballot. Mr. Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court, which could decide his eligibility for the entire nation, according to Politico

  • Congress will leave for holiday recess without deal on border security or Ukraine funding, according to the Washington Post

  • Chinese President Xi warned President Biden that China will reunify Taiwan with China, but timing hasn't been decided, according to NBC News

  • Shipping firms on edge amid Red Sea tensions, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Office market could get worse next year, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Absci Corporation (

  • Adobe (

  • Alibaba (

  • Amazon (

  • Anavex (

  • Anglo American (

  • argenx (

  • Barrick (

  • BASF AG (

  • Bio-Techne (

  • Bioventus (

  • Bit Digital (

  • CACI Intl (

  • Can-Fite BioPharma (

  • Clear Channel Outdoor (

  • Comcast (

  • Compass Pathways (

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (

  • Extreme Networks (

  • Fulton Fincl (

  • Galapagos NV (

  • General Motors (

  • GeoPark (

  • Gildan Activewear (

  • Ginkgo Bioworks (

  • Goldman Sachs (

  • Google (

  • Guardant Health (

  • HCI Group's (

  • Healthpeak (

  • ING Groep (

  • International Money Express (

  • Intuitive Machines (

  • JinkoSolar (

  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals (

  • Leslie's (

  • LianBio's (

  • MAC Limited (

  • Methode Electronics (

  • Mitek Systems (

  • NN Inc (

  • PG&E (

  • Prudential's (

  • RTX (

  • Shell plc (

  • Toyota's (

  • Virgin Galactic (

  • WEC Energy Group (

  • Westport Fuel Systems (

M&A:

  • Altus Power (

  • Aon (

  • Chesapeake Utilities (

  • Telefonica S.A. (

Syndicate:

  • AMC Entertainment (

  • Bluebirdbio (

  • CBRE Group (

  • First Internet Bancorp (

  • Skeena Resources (

  • SSR Mining (

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Bank First Corporation (BFC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group; tgt raised to $100

  • Bank of Montreal (BMO) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at National Bank Financial

  • Blend Labs (BLND) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $3.50

  • CIBC (CM) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at National Bank Financial

  • Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $2.75

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $133

  • Guidewire Software (GWRE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • KeyCorp (KEY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens

  • Paramount Global (PARA) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $18

  • Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $35

  • Downgrades:

  • argenx (ARGX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

  • Cinemark (CNK) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $13

  • Costco (COST) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Northcoast; tgt $620

  • Coupang (CPNG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt lowered to $18.50

  • DocuSign (DOCU) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • Everbridge (EVBG) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • Floor & Decor (FND) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt raised to $115

  • Grainger (GWW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt $825

  • Hayward Holdings (HAYW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt raised to $13.50

  • HEICO (HEI) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $174

  • Kaltura (KLTR) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $1.50

  • Lowe's (LOW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt raised to $240

  • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • Salesforce (CRM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $280

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Stephens

  • Zoom Video (ZM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $70

  • Others:

  • Alphabet (GOOG/L) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $150

  • Amazon (AMZN) resumed with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $185

  • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $43

  • Asana (ASAN) resumed with a Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $20

  • Ascendis Pharma (ASND) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $150

  • ATS Corp (ATS) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $45

  • Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen

  • Domino's Pizza (DPZ) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $466

  • Forian (FORA) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $5

  • McDonald's (MCD) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $317

  • Meta Platforms (META) resumed with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $425

  • Pinterest (PINS) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $45

  • Shake Shack (SHAK) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $74

  • Snap (SNAP) resumed with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $20

  • Starbucks (SBUX) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $107

Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Dec 16 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 7.4%)

  • 08:30 ET: Current Account Balance for Q3 (Briefing.com Consensus -$201.0B; Prior -$212.1B)

  • 10:00 ET: Consumer Confidence for Dec (Briefing.com Consensus 104.0; Prior 102.0)

  • 10:00 ET: Existing Home Sales for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 3.80M; Prior 3.79M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Dec 16 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -4.26M)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Dec 18)

  • Afternoon: HEI

  • Tuesday (Dec 19)

  • Morning: ACN FDS FCEL

  • Afternoon:  FDX SCS WOR

  • Wednesday (Dec 20)

  • Morning:  GIS TTC WGO

  • Afternoon: BB MLKN MU

  • Thursday (Dec 21)

  • Morning: APOG CCL KMX CTAS PAYX

  • Afternoon: AIR AVO NKE

 

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher on Wednesday, although China's Shanghai Composite (-1.0%) and India's Sensex (-1.3%) suffered a down day. The People's Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively, as expected. South Korea's Kospi (+1.8%) outperformed with the Bank of Korea (BOK) saying it thinks the inflation rate will hit 2% target by the end of 2024. Minutes from the November BOK meeting indicated the bank's policy rate is restrictive enough. Coming off the Bank of Japan's decision yesterday to stick with its negative interest rate policy, the Nikkei (+1.5%) had a good day in spite of some weaker than expected export and import activity for November. Separately, CNN reports that Malaysia has banned ships with Israeli flags, and ships headed to Israel, from docking at Malaysian ports in response to Israel's actions against Palestinian civilians.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Exports -0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%) and Imports -11.9% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -12.5%)

  • Australia's November MI Leading Index 0.1% (last 0.0%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0%

  • India's Sensex: -1.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.8%

  • Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.6%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.3% to 143.36

  • USD/CNH: +0.3% to 7.1442

  • USD/INR: flat at 83.183

 

Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.1%

Major European indices are mixed with modest changes on either side of unchanged. The UK's FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is outperforming, however, following some encouraging CPI data for November. Headline CPI was up 3.9% yr/yr, versus 4.6% in October, hitting a two-year low. The inflation data has fueled a rally in gilts with the 10-yr yield down 12 basis points to 3.54%. In turn, falling market rates and budding rate-cut expectations have pressured the pound, which is down 0.6% against the dollar at 1.2657.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's October Current Account EUR33.8B (expected EUR27.0B; last EUR31.2B); October Construction Output -0.97% (last 0.89%)

  • UK's November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%) and 3.9% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.6%); November Car Registration 2.0% m/m (last -43.7%) and 9.5% yr/yr (last 14.3%); November RPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.2%) and 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 6.1%)

  • Italy's November Car Registration 0.1% m/m (last 2.1%) and 16.2% yr/yr (last 20.0%)

  • Germany's November PPI -0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -0.1%) and -7.9% yr/yr (last -11.0%); November Car Registration 12.2% m/m (last -2.5%) and -5.7% yr/yr (last 4.9%); January GfK German Consumer Climate -25.1 (expected -27.0; last -27.6)

  • France's Car Registration 0.2% m/m (last -2.5%) and 14.0% yr/yr (last 21.9%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: flat

  • Germany's DAX: -0.1%

  • UK's FTSE 100: +0.6%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.4% to 1.0937

  • GBP/USD: -0.6% to 1.2657

  • USD/CHF: +0.4% to 0.8642

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