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21/11/23 Briefing




The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 46 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 59 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Stock futures point to a lower open. This morning's batch of earnings news from retailers has garnered mixed reactions. Participants are also looking ahead to quarterly results from NVIDIA (NVDA), which is up nearly 25% since late October, after today's close.

Today's calendar features the October Existing Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Minutes from the October 31- November 1 FOMC meeting, which will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down one basis point to 4.89% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.41%.

In corporate news:

  • Baidu (BIDU 112.70, +1.41, +1.3%): beats by $3.22, reports revs in-line

  • Lowe's (LOW 195.90, -8.54, -4.2%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; lowers FY24 guidance; Q3 comps -7.4%

  • Best Buy (BBY 64.50, -3.61, -5.3%): beats by $0.10, misses on revs; lowers FY24 guidance, sees Q4 comparable sales of down 3-7%

  • Zoom Video (ZM 65.85, -0.15, -0.3%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Medtronic (MDT 76.85, +1.69, +2.3%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Keysight (KEYS 135.00, +0.08, +0.1%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 128.80, +9.79, +8.2%): beats by $0.40, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and comp guidance

  • Kohl's (KSS 24.02, -0.84, -3.4%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line

  • Analog Devices (ADI 182.00, -1.82, -1.0%): misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Jacobs Engineering (J 133.25, -3.73, -2.7%): misses by $0.13, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Agilent (A 122.92, +8.94, +7.8%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS and revs below consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH, India's Sensex: +0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.8%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's October PPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.5%); 0.8% yr/yr (last 1.4%)

  • Hong Kong's October CPI 1.0% m/m (last 0.4%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%)

  • New Zealand's October trade deficit NZD1.71 bln (expected deficit of NZD1.15 bln; last deficit of NZD2.43 bln). October Credit Card Spending -1.8% m/m (last -0.4%); -2.9% yr/yr (last 2.8%)


  • In news:

  • The Chinese government is reportedly preparing a list of 50 developers, including China Vanke, who will be eligible for subsidized funding options.

  • South Korea's exports through the first 20 days of November were up 2.2% yr/yr with chip exports rising 2.4%, representing the first increase in 16 months.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is reportedly considering establishing a third chip fabrication plant in Japan.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia's November minutes noted that Australia's cash rate is below that of many other countries, which could lengthen the time it takes to return inflation to target.

  • The Japanese yen (147.67) is rising for the fourth consecutive day against the dollar, reaching its best level versus the greenback since mid-September.



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note with Italy's MIB (-0.8%) showing relative weakness. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s October Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP13.97 bln (expected GBP21.00 bln; last GBP13.72 bln)

  • Swiss October trade surplus CHF4.60 bln (expected surplus of CHF5.87 bln; last surplus of CH6.28 bln)


  • In news:

  • Bank stocks are under pressure in Milan with BMPS down nearly 8.0% on news that the Italian government sold a 25% stake in the lender, raising EUR920 mln.

  • European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the reliance on forward guidance is probably excessive and that eurozone inflation would return to target by 2025.

  • A draft EU fiscal assessment has placed France on a watch list while Germany and Italy will be deemed not fully compliant with the region's fiscal guidance.

  • The ECB released a report on commercial real estate, warning that challenges in the sector could amplify economic stress.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -3 @ 4,511

  • DJIA Futures: -40 @ 34,907

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1 @ 15,837

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.39 @ 77.44

  • Nat Gas +0.001 @ 2.883

  • Gold +9.95 @ 1990.25

  • Silver +0.028 @ 23.642

  • Copper -0.0113 @ 3.8027

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF 5.19% ) beats by $0.65, beats on revs, Q3 comps +16%; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Agilent ( A 8.56% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS and revs below consensus

  • Analog Devices ( ADI 1.34% ) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Avita Medical ( RCEL 18.18% ) lowers FY23 revenue guidance below consensus

  • Baidu ( BIDU 2.13% ) beats by $3.22, reports revs in-line

  • BellRing Brands ( BRBR 6.25% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs in-line

  • Best Buy ( BBY 2.20% ) beats by $0.10, misses on revs; lowers FY24 guidance, sees Q4 comparable sales of down 3-7%

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 20.26% ) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; Q3 comps +6%

  • Caleres ( CAL 12.77% ) beats by $0.07, misses on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance

  • Central Garden ( CENT 9.21% ) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; provides EPS guidance for FY24

  • CRH Plc. ( CRH 3.88% ) provides November 2023 update; Sales +8%; Increasing DPS to $1.33 (+5%) for FY23; transitioning to quarterly dividends in 2024

  • Dick's Sporting Goods ( DKS 5.44% ) beats by $0.40, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and comp guidance

  • Dycom ( DY 16.72% ) beats by $1.07, beats on revs

  • Embecta Corp. ( EMBC 3.74% ) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Golar LNG ( GLNG 3.77% ) reports Q3 results

  • Hibbett ( HIBB 12.02% ) beats by $0.87, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Jacobs Engineering ( J 6.79% ) misses by $0.13, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Keysight ( KEYS 1.27% ) beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Kingsoft Cloud ( KC 12.89% ) reports Q3 (Sep) results, misses on revs

  • Kohl's ( KSS 11.00% ) beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line

  • Lowe's ( LOW 2.24% ) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; lowers FY24 guidance; Q3 comps -7.4%

  • Medtronic ( MDT 3.47% ) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • NJ Resources ( NJR 1.16% ) reports EPS in-line, raises FY23 guidance

  • Symbotic ( SYM 34.58% ) reports Q4 (Sep) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus

  • TransAlta ( TAC 8.08% ) announces growth targets to 2028, financial outlook for 2024 and declares dividend increase of 9%; provides FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance

  • Trip.com Group ( TCOM 9.87% ) reports Q3 (Sep) results; net revs grew 99% yr/yr, adjusted EBITDA margin up 13 pts to 34%; domestic hotel bookings up over 90%; outbound hotel and air reservations recover to around 80% of pre-COVID levels

  • Zoom Video ( ZM 1.86% ) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

News:

  • China created a list of 50 real estate firms that would be eligible for financing, according to Bloomberg

  • France placed on EU Fiscal Watch List; Germany and Italy deemed not fully compliant, according to Bloomberg

  • France and US will propose ban on private financing for coal fired plants, according to Reuters

  • Aerovate Therapeutics ( AVTE 0.31% ) Announces Simultaneous Completion of Enrollment in Phase 2b Portion and Enrollment of First Patient into Phase 3 in the IMPAHCT Trial Evaluating AV-101 for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

  • Allient ( LNT 0.37% ) CFO Michael Leach to retire at the end of April 2024

  • A-Mark Precious Metals ( AMRK 5.16% ) increases number of shares under its share repurchase program; now authorized to repurchase up to 1.22 mln more shares of common stock

  • ArcelorMittal ( MT 0.36% ) looking for supplies of US liquified natural gas, according to Financial Times

  • Blackstone ( BX 0.52% ) aiming to close its multi-strategy fund, according to Financial Times

  • Connect Biopharma ( CNTB 26.94% ) announces positive long-term data from the china pivotal trial of rademikibart in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis

  • Connect Biopharma ( CNTB 26.94% ) and Simcere announce exclusive licensing and collaboration agreement in Greater China

  • eHealth ( EHTH 2.83% ) COO Roman Rariy departing at the end of the year; reiterates FY23 revenue outlook

  • General Motors ( GM 2.73% ) Cruise co-founder and chief product officer Daniel Kan has left the company, according to Reuters

  • GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK 0.93% ) announces major step towards sustainability ambitions with advancement of low carbon Ventolin programme to Phase III trials

  • ICF International ( ICFI 0.90% ) recently awarded several new cooperative agreements to provide community development and advanced technology and analytics services to HUD's Community Compass program

  • Leonardo DRS ( DRS 4.21% ) announces the successful completion of comprehensive sea trials of the first Ulsan-Class Future Frigate experimental Batch-3 for the Republic of Korea Navy

  • Lifecore Biomedical ( LFCR 0.00% ) announces that the U.S Department of Justice has declined to prosecute the Company for violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act involving the Co's formerly-held subsidiary, Yucatan Foods, which the Co had previously disclosed in its public filings

  • Live Nation ( LYV 2.55% ) being sent a subpoena regarding ticket pricing and fees by a U.S. Senate panel, according to Reuters

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 1.45% ): OpenAI's investors are still trying to bring back Sam Altman to a leadership role, according to Bloomberg

  • Moderna ( MRNA 2.33% ): European Patent Office declared MRNA's patent invalid, according to Reuters

  • MorphoSys' ( MOR 22.53% ) Phase 3 Study of Pelabresib in Myelofibrosis Demonstrates Statistically Significant Improvement in Spleen Volume Reduction and Strong Positive Trend in Symptom Reduction

  • ReposiTrak ( TRAK 0.32% ) announces the addition of a suppler of shrimp from Mexico and a seafood harvester and processor to the ReposiTrak Traceability Network

  • Riskified ( RSKD 0.25% ) receives Israeli court approval for $75 mln share repurchase program

  • Rivian Automotive ( RIVN 6.00% ) CEO Robert Joseph Scaringe assuming direct responsibility for all product functions, including software, autonomy, design, vehicle, electrical, propulsion, and programs

  • Stellantis ( STLA 1.67% ) and CATL sign strategic MoU for the local supply of LFP batteries for European market

  • Tesla ( TSLA 2.14% ) increased price of Model Y in China with long range, according to Bloomberg

  • Tesla ( TSLA 2.14% ): India near agreement with Tesla to setup plant and import electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg

M&A:

  • Home Depot ( HD 0.79% ) enters into definitive agreement to acquire International Designs Group from Mill Point Capital; terms of deal not disclosed

  • Jacobs Engineering ( J 6.79% ) to spin-off and merge its critical mission solutions and cyber & intelligence government services businesses with amentum, creating an independent, publicly traded company

  • Martin Marietta ( MLM 2.22% ) to divest South Texas cement and related concrete operations to CRH plc (CRH)

  • Merck ( MRK 0.48% ) to acquire Caraway Therapeutics

  • Northern Oil & Gas ( NOG 0.13% ) announces two acquisition transactions

  • SGI International ( SGII 0.09% ) announces termination of merger agreement with american battery materials, inc. and redemption of public shares

  • TechnipFMC ( FTI 0.95% ) announces an agreement to sell the Company's Measurement Solutions business to One Equity Partners for $205 million in cash

Syndicate:

  • P10, Inc. ( PX 0.53% ) files for 22,243,654 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

  • Air Products ( APD 1.13% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Ovintiv ( OVV 0.65% ) announces upsize and pricing of offering of common stock by a selling stockholder

  • Stantec ( STN 2.13% ) files $250 mln public offering of common shares

  • Uber ( UBER 0.38% ) announces pricing of upsized $1.5 billion convertible senior notes offering

  • United Airlines ( UAL 1.61% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • SYM +22.4%, CNTB +22.1%, BURL +12.7%, A +6.8%, DY +5.8%, CRH +3.1%, AMRK +2.8%, BIDU +2.2%, LFCR +1.8%, MRCY +1.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • MOR -24.9%, RCEL -11.9%, KC -8.4%, LOW -5.3%, STN -4.3%, TCOM -3.2%, RSKD -3.0%, LUMN -2.2%, J -1.9%, OVV -1.3%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • American Intl (AIG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus

  • Black Hills Corp (BKH) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho; tgt $53

  • C3.ai (AI) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $40

  • Celanese (CE) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $135

  • Cloudflare (NET) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

  • DigitalOcean (DOCN) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $37

  • Entergy (ETR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $110

  • Equinix (EQIX) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

  • Gen Digital (GEN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $26


  • Downgrades:

  • Agilon Health (AGL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $12

  • Bayer AG (BAYRY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

  • Exelon (EXC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $40

  • Foot Locker (FL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • Hershey Foods (HSY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $213

  • Incyte (INCY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $65

  • LVMH (LVMUY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

  • Mainz Biomed B.V. (MYNZ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald

  • NanoString Technologies (NSTG) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird


  • Others:

  • ACI Worldwide (ACIW) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $31

  • Advanced Energy (AEIS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $100

  • Array Tech (ARRY) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $19

  • Compass (COMP) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $2.70

  • Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd. (ENLT) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $17

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $131

  • First Solar (FSLR) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $188

  • Hannon Armstrong Sust. Infr. (HASI) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $30

  • Hercules Capital (HTGC) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $17

  • Marks and Spencer (MAKSY) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank

  • Maxeon Solar (MAXN) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $7

  • Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $45

  • Next (NXGPF) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank

  • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $2.80

  • Oxford Industries (OXM) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Sunnova Energy (NOVA) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $20


Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: Existing Home Sales for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 3.90M; Prior 3.96M)

  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes

Earnings:

  • Monday (Nov 20)

  • Morning: LEGN

  • Afternoon: A BRBR KEYS ZM


  • Tuesday (Nov 21)

  • Morning: ANF ADI BIDU BBY BURL CAL DKS DY EMBC GDS HIBB J KC KSS LOW MDT NJR

  • Afternoon: AEO ADSK DLO GES HPQ JACK JWN NVDA URBN


  • Wednesday (Nov 22)

  • Morning: DE

  • Afternoon: BZUN



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. The Chinese government is reportedly preparing a list of 50 developers, including China Vanke, who will be eligible for subsidized funding options. South Korea's exports through the first 20 days of November were up 2.2% yr/yr with chip exports rising 2.4%, representing the first increase in 16 months. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is reportedly considering establishing a third chip fabrication plant in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia's November minutes noted that Australia's cash rate is below that of many other countries, which could lengthen the time it takes to return inflation to target. The Japanese yen (147.67) is rising for the fourth consecutive day against the dollar, reaching its best level versus the greenback since mid-September.

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's October PPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.5%); 0.8% yr/yr (last 1.4%)

  • Hong Kong's October CPI 1.0% m/m (last 0.4%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%)

  • New Zealand's October trade deficit NZD1.71 bln (expected deficit of NZD1.15 bln; last deficit of NZD2.43 bln). October Credit Card Spending -1.8% m/m (last -0.4%); -2.9% yr/yr (last 2.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.3%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH

  • India's Sensex: +0.4%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.8%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.5% to 147.67

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 7.1397

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 83.29

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.3%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note with Italy's MIB (-0.8%) showing relative weakness. Bank stocks are under pressure in Milan with BMPS down nearly 8.0% on news that the Italian government sold a 25% stake in the lender, raising EUR920 mln. European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the reliance on forward guidance is probably excessive and that eurozone inflation would return to target by 2025. A draft EU fiscal assessment has placed France on a watch list while Germany and Italy will be deemed not fully compliant with the region's fiscal guidance. The ECB released a report on commercial real estate, warning that challenges in the sector could amplify economic stress.

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s October Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP13.97 bln (expected GBP21.00 bln; last GBP13.72 bln)

  • Swiss October trade surplus CHF4.60 bln (expected surplus of CHF5.87 bln; last surplus of CH6.28 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0943

  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2532

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.8841

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