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21/11/22 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

The equity futures market indicates a lower open as investors weigh ongoing growth concerns.

Treasury yields are inching higher this morning. The 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.83% and the 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.54%.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (not an FOMC voter) favors smaller rate hikes, with potential terminal rate of 4.75-5.00%, according to Bloomberg.

Germany's PPI decreased 4.2% month-over-month in October, representing the first month-over-month drop since May 2020. Germany's PPI is still up 34.5% on a year-over-year basis.

China reported its first COVID-19 deaths in 6 months, according to the Guardian. The largest Beijing district wants people to stay home due to rising coronavirus cases, according to Reuters.

Goldman Sachs cut its price target for crude oil in Q4 by $10 to $100/bbl. On a related note, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $79.44/bbl and natural gas futures are flat at $6.72/mmbtu.

In corporate news:

  • Walt Disney (DIS 99.50, +7.70, +8.39%): appoints Robert Iger as CEO

  • J.M. Smucker (SJM 147.50, +1.36, +0.93%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • Comerica (CMA 70.70, +0.80, +1.14%): upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

  • Imago BioSciences (IMGO 35.60, +18.20, +104.60%): to be acquired by Merck (MRK) for $36.00/share

  • Williams-Sonoma (WSM 120.00, -2.37, -1.94%): Barclays downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%, India's Sensex: -0.8%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.0%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Hong Kong's October CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 4.4%)

  • New Zealand's October Credit Card Spending 24.8% yr/yr (last 34.0%)


  • In news:

  • There were continued concerns about China maintaining its zero-COVID policy, which would put continued pressure on growth.

  • Meanwhile, Macau stepped up its coronavirus testing requirements for visitors from the mainland.

  • Property developers underperformed after the People's Bank of China maintained its one- and five-year loan prime rates.

  • The approval rating of Japan's cabinet has fallen to a fresh low of 30.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shadow board expects the official cash rate to be increased by 75 bps on Wednesday.



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while Spain's IBEX (+0.3%) outperforms. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: -0.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH, France's CAC 40: -0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's October PPI -4.2% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 2.3%); 34.5% yr/yr (expected 41.5%; last 45.8%)


  • In news:

  • Germany's PPI decreased in October, representing the first month-over-month drop since May 2020.

  • European Central Bank chief economist Lane said that the upcoming December rate hike will not be the last, adding that it is too early to consider a pause in the hiking cycle.

  • British government officials are reportedly looking at forming a Swiss-style relationship with the EU.

  • Italy is reportedly planning to increase spending by EUR30 bln in 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -19 @ 3,947

  • DJIA Futures: -71 @ 33,675

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -88 @ 11,589

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE UNCH, CAC -0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -1.9%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.49 @ 79.62

  • Nat Gas -0.028 @ 6.275

  • Gold -12.90 @ 1741.50

  • Silver -0.334 @ 20.663

  • Copper -0.0435 @ 3.5885

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Builders FirstSource ( BLDR 6.73% ) announces CEO transition; Dave Rush appointed interim CEO; reaffirms FY22 guidance

  • Jacobs Engineering ( J 2.95% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line

  • J.M. Smucker ( SJM 1.35% ) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • Futu Holdings ( FUTU 0.43% ) beats on top and bottom lines

  • Niu Technologies ( NIU 13.88% ) reports Q3 results; provides Q4 outlook

News:

  • Largest Beijing district wants people to stay home due to rising coronavirus cases, according to Reuters

  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (not a voting FOMC member) favors smaller rate hikes ending at 5%, according to Bloomberg

  • White House announces new initiatives to strengthen U.S.-Philippines alliance

  • China reported first COVID-19 deaths in 6 months, according to Guardian

  • Railroad unions will announce today if members will accept brokered deal, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • FTX owes $3.1 bln to top creditors, according to Reuters

  • Several people were killed in nightclub shooting in Colorado, according to the New York Times

  • COP27 reach agreement to fund nations vulnerable to climate disasters, according to CNN

  • Former President Trump's Twitter account has been restored; says he will not be returning to Twitter and staying on Truth Social, according to Fox News

  • Airlines are asking regulators to approve flights with a single pilot, according to Bloomberg

  • Bristol-Myers ( BMY 1.95% ): Data at ASH 2022 highlight innovative therapeutic platforms across a range of blood diseases

  • Carvana ( CVNA 12.53% ) debt being impacted by increasing interest rates, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Laboratory Corp ( LH 2.48% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Live Nation's ( LYV 1.10% ) Ticket Master issues statement on Taylor Swift ticket sale issues

  • NeoGenomics ( NEO 0.79% ): RaDaR Assay demonstrates clinical potential for detecting disease recurrence across all types of early breast cancer, including triple negative disease

  • Rivian ( RIVN 6.33% ): Employees claim safety oversights at Rivian plant in Illinois, according to Bloomberg

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM 2.84% ) planning Arizona chip production, according to Reuters

  • Teva Pharma ( TEVA 1.26% ) announces that the Company's Board of Directors has appointed Richard Francis as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2023

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 6.30% ) appoints Robert Iger as CEO

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 6.30% ): Trian Fund Management wants DIS Board seat as it pushes for cost cuts, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Zimmer Biomet ( ZBH 0.39% ) announces FDA 510(k) clearance for Persona OsseoTi Keel Tibia for cementless knee replacement

M&A:

  • GrafTech International ( EAF 31.28% ) agrees to sell its TitlePoint line of business to Fidelity National Financial for $225 million in cash

  • Imago BioSciences ( IMGO 104.54% ) to be acquired by Merck (MRK) for $36.00/share

  • Paramount Global ( PARA 0.75% ) will not support ruling blocking sale of Simon & Schuster unit to Penguin, according to the Wall Street Journal

Syndicate:

  • Cytokinetics ( CYTK 2.94% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Enfusion ( ENFN 0.32% ) files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering; also files for 21,522,009 common stock offering by selling stockholders

  • Granite Ridge Resources ( GRNT 6.63% ) files for 128,233,953 common stock offering by selling stockholders, relates to warrants

  • Hawaiian Holdings ( HA 1.06% ) files for 9,442,443 common stock offering by selling stockholder, relates to warrants

  • Surgery Partners ( SGRY 7.77% ) proposes $275 mln offering of common stock

IPOs:

  • Expect to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • DIS +9%, EAF +9%, FUTU +1.9%, VXX +0.9%


  • Gapping down:

  • NIU -5.1%, COIN -4.8%, TGNA -3%, SGRY -2.6%, SI -1.2%, AAPL -1.1%, ENFN -1%, QQQ -0.8%, HA -0.6%, SPY -0.5%, IWM -0.5%



Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • CMS Energy (CMS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $64

  • Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $85


  • Downgrades:

  • Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James


  • Others:

  • Alpine Immune Sciences (ALPN) initiated with an Outperform at SVB Leerink; tgt $15

  • Cullinan Management (CGEM) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $20


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • No economic data of note.


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Nov 21)

  • Morning: SJM J

  • Afternoon: A DELL GDS MMS URBN ZM


  • Tuesday (Nov 22)

  • Morning: ANF AEO AMWD ADI BIDU BBY BURL CAL CSIQ ROAD DKS DLTR DY JACK MDT SGHC VIPS WMG

  • Afternoon: ADSK GES HPQ JWN


  • Wednesday (Nov 23)

  • Morning: DE KC



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -1.9%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note. There were continued concerns about China maintaining its zero-COVID policy, which would put continued pressure on growth. Meanwhile, Macau stepped up its coronavirus testing requirements for visitors from the mainland. Property developers underperformed after the People's Bank of China maintained its one- and five-year loan prime rates. The approval rating of Japan's cabinet has fallen to a fresh low of 30.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shadow board expects the official cash rate to be increased by 75 bps on Wednesday.

  • In economic data:

  • Hong Kong's October CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 4.4%)

  • New Zealand's October Credit Card Spending 24.8% yr/yr (last 34.0%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.2%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%

  • India's Sensex: -0.8%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.0%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +1.0% to 141.70

  • USD/CNH: +0.7% to 7.1745

  • USD/INR: +0.2% to 81.77

Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE UNCH, CAC -0.2%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while Spain's IBEX (+0.3%) outperforms. Germany's PPI decreased in October, representing the first month-over-month drop since May 2020. European Central Bank chief economist Lane said that the upcoming December rate hike will not be the last, adding that it is too early to consider a pause in the hiking cycle. British government officials are reportedly looking at forming a Swiss-style relationship with the EU. Italy is reportedly planning to increase spending by EUR30 bln in 2023.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's October PPI -4.2% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 2.3%); 34.5% yr/yr (expected 41.5%; last 45.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%

  • Germany's DAX: -0.6%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH

  • France's CAC 40: -0.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.8% to 1.0238

  • GBP/USD: -0.8% to 1.1797

  • USD/CHF: +0.4% to 0.9581

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