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21/06/22 Briefing




The S&P 500 futures are up 55 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 181 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 406 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value.

The healthy bid in the futures market follows on the heels of steep losses for the major indices last week that were the worst since March 2020. In brief, it is a rebound effort for a deeply oversold market. Entering today, the major indices are down 9.4-11.7% for the month.

Market participants appear to be looking through negative headline developments, like reports that COVID cases have increased in Shenzhen and Macau, increased calls pointing to higher probabilities for a recession in the U.S., and a bevy of headlines pinpointing the specter of more rate hikes on the way from many of the world's leading central banks.

The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.18% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.27%.

In corporate news:

  • Kellogg (K 73.25, +5.71, +8.5%): plans to separate into three independent companies: Global Snacking Co. with about $11.4 billion in net sales, North America Cereal Co. with about $2.4 billion in net sales, and Plant. Co. with about $340 million in net sales

  • Lennar (LEN 66.81, +2.18, +3.4%): beats by $0.74, beats on revs; For the full year, co will leave delivery expectations at approximately 68,000 homes and, at this time, will not provide updated guidance for other items

  • Mondelez (MDLZ 59.50, +0.70, +1.2%): acquires Clif Bar & Company for $2.9 bln

  • JetBlue (JBLU 8.70, +0.16, +1.9%): submits proposal to Board of Directors of Spirit (SAVE 23.16, +1.88, +8.8%) with increased offer of $33.50 per share in cash

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei +1.8%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.9%; China's Shanghai Composite -0.3%; India's Sensex +1.8%; South Korea's Kospi +0.8%; and Australia's All Ordinaries +1.4%.

  • In economic data:

  • Hong Kong's May CPI 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 1.3%)

  • In news:

  • South Korea's exports were down 3.4% through the first 20 days of June while chip exports were up 1.9%.

  • Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that current inflation is due to higher commodity prices and that Japan's fiscal health has not worsened.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy minutes showed that the central bank is considering a 25- or a 50-bps rate hike in July and an agreement that inflation will not return to target if current policy is maintained.

  • Most major European indices trade on a firmly higher note. STOXX Europe 600 +0.9%; Germany's DAX +0.7%; UK's FTSE 100 +0.7%; France's CAC 40 +1.2%; Italy's FTSE MIB +0.7%; and Spain's IBEX 35 - 0.2%. 

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's April Current Account deficit EUR5.80 bln (last deficit of EUR1.60 bln)

  • U.K.'s June CBI Industrial Trends Orders 18 (expected 22; last 26)

  • Swiss May trade surplus CHF2.00 bln (last surplus of CHF3.60 bln)

  • In news:

  • Unionized railroad workers in the U.K. have begun their largest strike in 30 years.

  • Germany's largest metalworkers' union is calling for an 8% wage hike.

  • European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated intentions to raise rates by 25 bps in July and September while Chief Economist Lane said that the size of the September increase remains undecided.

  • Russia is demanding that Lithuania lift its blockade of the Kaliningrad Oblast.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +55 @ 3,730

  • DJIA Futures: +409  @ 30,298

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +181 @ 11,447

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +2.20 @ 111.76

  • Nat Gas -0.34 @ 6.60

  • Gold -0.14 @ 1838.10

  • Silver +0.15  @ 21.75

  • Copper +0.03 @ 4.04

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings:

  • Himax Tech (HIMX) lowers Q2 guidance

  • Lennar (LEN) beats by $0.74, beats on revs

  • Southwest Air (LUV) reaffirms Q2 guidance

  • General News:

  • Consumers are pulling back on services spending amid high inflation, according to Washington Post

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects economy to slow, but she does not believe a recession is inevitable as inflation is locked in for rest of 2022. She said a gas tax holiday (which requires congressional approval) and removing some China tariffs are items worth considering, according to ABC News

  • Berlin, Germany will restart coal fired power plants after Russia lowers gas supplies, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Ukraine war could last for years, according to Bild de

  • China purchased $7.5 bln of Russian energy last month, according to Bloomberg

  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) supports another 75 basis point rate hike

  • President Biden is not likely to make decision on China tariffs before G7 meeting next week, according to Reuters

  • President Biden announces intent to appoint Marilynn Malerba as Treasurer of the United States

  • A new coronavirus outbreak has impacted Macau, according to Bloomberg

  • AbbVie (ABBV) submits supplemental New Drug Application to U.S. FDA for Atogepant (QULIPTA) to support label expansion for the preventive treatment of migraine

  • Biogen (BIIB) announced that the European Patent Office has granted a patent that expires in February 2028 related to TECFIDERA

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) and QatarEnergy to expand LNG production with North Field East agreement

  • JD.com(JD) retail event had slowest sales in five years, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Kellogg (K) plans to separate into three independent companies: Global Snacking Co. with about $11.4 billion in net sales, North America Cereal Co. with about $2.4 billion in net sales, and Plant. Co. with about $340 million in net sales

  • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk says job reductions will result in 3.5% reduction in headcount, according to Bloomberg

  • M&A:

  • Convey Health (CNVY) To Be Taken Private By TPG for $10.50 per share in cash

  • JetBlue (JBLU) submits proposal to Spirit (SAVE) Board of Directors with increased offer of $33.50 per share in cash

  • Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ) acquires Clif Bar & Company for $2.9 bln

  • NV5 Global (NVEE) announces the acquisition of GEO1 through an asset purchase of Aerial Filmworks, LLC; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Owens Corning (OC) to acquire Natural Polymers, a manufacturer of spray polyurethane foam insulation for building and construction applications, based in Cortland, Illinois

  • Paya Holdings (PAYA) considering sale, according to Bloomberg

  • Twitter (TWTR) discloses that it recommends that shareholders vote for the adoption of the merger agreement

  • Supreme Court will soon rule on a decision that could dramatically limit the government's ability to regulate for climate change, according to NY Times

  • Syndicate

  • Agiliti (AGTI) files for common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • FMC Corp (FMC) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • VALN +83.8%, SAVE +10.4%, ALV +8.1%, TRMR +6.3%, SHEL +6.2%, BP +6%, LEN +5.5%, HIMX +4.8%, BNR +4.6%, TTE +4.5%, IREN +4.3%, XOM +3.5%, NRZ +3.4%, SLB +3.4%, FANG +3.3%, TWTR +3.2%, HAL +3%, ULCC +2.9%, XLE +2.8%, FMC +2.5%, AZN +2.5%, IWM +2.1%, OIH +2.1%, QQQ +1.9%, ACAD +1.9%, SPY +1.8%, USO +1.8%, DIA +1.7%, ABB +1.7%, NOC +1.6%, LMT +1.2%, PSX +1.1%

  • Gapping down:

  • LEV -5.9%, EJFA -4.1%, VXX -3.5%, RADA -3%, FXLV -1.1%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • ABM Industries (ABM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $50

  • American Tower (AMT) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $285

  • Aveanna (AVAH) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Stephens; tgt lowered to $3.50

  • Centene (CNC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $88

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $75

  • Chewy (CHWY) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt raised to $35

  • Church & Dwight (CHD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $95

  • CubeSmart (CUBE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $125

  • FMC Corp (FMC) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities

  • LTC Properties (LTC) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $40

  • Pearson Plc (PSO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

  • Renasant (RNST) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group; tgt $34

  • Suncor Energy (SU) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

  • Downgrades:

  • Adobe (ADBE) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $362

  • China Petroleum (Sinopec) (SNP) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman

  • Hyliion (HYLN) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

  • Int'l Paper (IP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $46

  • Life Storage (LSI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $133

  • National Health (NHI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $62

  • Pennant Group (PNTG) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Stephens; tgt lowered to $17

  • Sunnova Energy (NOVA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $24

  • SunPower (SPWR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $13

  • UBS AG (UBS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas

  • Under Armour (UAA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; tgt lowered to $10

  • WestRock (WRK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $45

  • Others:

  • Arvinas (ARVN) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $42

  • Compass (COMP) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point; tgt $8

  • DoorDash (DASH) resumed with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $67

  • FREYR Battery (FREY) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $8

  • Inari (NARI) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $100

  • KE Holdings (BEKE) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $22.50

  • Mainz Biomed B.V. (MYNZ) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $25

  • Maxar Technologies (MAXR) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $39

  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point; tgt $5.50

  • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) initiated with a Neutral at Compass Point; tgt $6

  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $13

  • Redfin (RDFN) resumed with a Neutral at Compass Point; tgt $8.50

  • Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) initiated with a Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $63

  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $5

  • Symbotic (SYM) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $18

  • Veeva Systems (VEEV) resumed with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $252

  • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $4

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: May Existing Home Sales (Briefing.comconsensus 5.40M; Prior 5.61M)

  • Earnings:

  • Tuesday (Jun 21)

  • Morning: LEN

  • Afternoon: LZB

  • Wednesday (Jun 22)

  • Morning: KFY WGO

  • Afternoon:  FUL KBH SCS WOR

  • Thursday (Jun 23)

  • Morning: ACN APOG DRI FDS GMS RAD

  • Afternoon: BB CAMP FDX SWBI

  • Friday (Jun 24)

  • Morning: KMX CCL

  • Afternoon: None

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. South Korea's exports were down 3.4% through the first 20 days of June while chip exports were up 1.9%. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that current inflation is due to higher commodity prices and that Japan's fiscal health has not worsened. The Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy minutes showed that the central bank is considering a 25- or a 50-bps rate hike in July and an agreement that inflation will not return to target if current policy is maintained.

  • In economic data:

  • Hong Kong's May CPI 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 1.3%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.8%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.9%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%

  • India's Sensex: +1.8%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.8%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.4%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 135.43

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 6.6947

  • USD/INR: +0.2% to 78.05

Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1.2%

Major European indices trade on a firmly higher note while Spain's IBEX (-0.2%) underperforms. Unionized railroad workers in the U.K. have begun their largest strike in 30 years. Germany's largest metalworkers' union is calling for an 8% wage hike. European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated intentions to raise rates by 25 bps in July and September while Chief Economist Lane said that the size of the September increase remains undecided. Russia is demanding that Lithuania lift its blockade of the Kaliningrad Oblast.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's April Current Account deficit EUR5.80 bln (last deficit of EUR1.60 bln)

  • U.K.'s June CBI Industrial Trends Orders 18 (expected 22; last 26)

  • Swiss May trade surplus CHF2.00 bln (last surplus of CHF3.60 bln)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.7%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%

  • France's CAC 40: +1.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.4% to 1.0547

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.2258

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9673


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