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20/01/22 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points, or 0.5%, above fair value in a mechanical bounce from recent losses. The Nasdaq 100 futures trade 0.6% above fair value after the Nasdaq 100 entered "correction territory" yesterday.

The macro landscape hasn't meaningfully changed since yesterday, with investors still contemplating the implications of tighter monetary policy, rising interest rates, inflation pressures, and a potential Russian incursion of Ukraine.

Regarding the Omicron variant, United Airlines (UAL 43.80, -0.60, -1.4%) said the virus is still impacting near-term demand -- evident by downside Q1 revenue guidance from American Airlines (AAL 17.58, +0.27, +1.6%) -- but it remains optimistic about the spring, summer, and beyond.

Both United and American beat EPS estimates, as did Dow component Travelers (TRV 165.99, +5.92, +3.6%).

On the data front, investors will receive the weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.comconsensus 211,000) and Continuing Claims report and the Philadelphia Fed Index for January (Briefing.comconsensus 20.0) at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Existing Home Sales for December (Briefing.comconsensus 6.42 mln) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Treasury market is seeing selling pressure in shorter-dated maturities. The 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.04% while the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 95.62. WTI crude futures are down 0.4% to $85.46/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

  • United Airlines (UAL 43.80, -0.60): -1.4% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates. The company noted that the Omicron variant is still impacting near-term demand but is optimistic about the spring, summer, and beyond.

  • American Airlines (AAL 17.58, +0.27): +1.6% after beating EPS estimates, although it did guide Q1 revenue below consensus.

  • Travelers (TRV 165.99, +5.92): +3.6% after beating EPS estimates on in-line revenue.

  • Kinder Morgan (KMI 17.58, +0.15): +0.9% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and announcing intentions to raise its dividend by 3% to $1.11/share in 2022.

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 125.63, -2.64): -2.0% after the stock was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.1% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +3.4% China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1% India's Sensex: -1.1% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's December trade deficit JPY582.40 bln (expected deficit of JPY784.10 bln; last deficit of JPY955.60 bln). December Imports 41.1% yr/yr (expected 42.8%; last 43.8%) and Exports 17.5% yr/yr (expected 16.0%; last 20.5%)

  • South Korea's December PPI 0.0% m/m (last 0.7%); 9.0% yr/yr (last 9.8%)

  • Australia's December Employment Change 64,800 (expected 43,300; last 366,100) and full Employment Change 41,500 (last 128,300). December Unemployment Rate 4.2% (expected 4.5%; last 4.6%) and Participation Rate 66.1% (expected 66.2%; last 66.1%). MI Inflation Expectations 4.4% (last 4.8%)

  • New Zealand's December FPI 0.6% m/m (last -0.6%)

  • Hong Kong's December CPI 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 1.8%)


  • In news:

  • The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year loan prime rate by ten basis points to 3.7% and lowered the five-year rate by five basis points to 4.60%, in line with speculation from this week.

  • Japan's Prime Minister Kishida confirmed that a quasi-emergency will be declared in Tokyo between January 21 and February 13.

  • Australia's unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since August 2008 in the December reading.



  • Major European indices trade in mixed fashion. STOXX Europe 600: +0.1% Germany's DAX: +0.1% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1% France's CAC 40: -0.2% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's December CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 5.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.9%). December Core CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%); 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%)

  • Germany's December PPI 5.0% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 24.2% yr/yr (expected 19.4%; last 19.2%)

  • France's January Business Survey 112 (expected 111; last 110)


  • In news:

  • British Prime Minister Johnson announced the lifting of the U.K.'s mask mandate and the removal of compulsory vaccine passports.

  • A parliamentary committee in the U.K. is looking to cut the minimum time requirement between no-confidence votes to six months from one year.

  • European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated that prices are expected to stabilize this year and "gradually decline" during the course of the year.

  • ECB policymaker De Cos said that a rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.

  • Norges Bank repeated its guidance for a rate hike in March.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +15 @ 4,540

  • DJIA Futures: +97 @ 35,126

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +101 @ 15,148

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +3.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.56 @ 85.24

  • Nat Gas -0.090 @ 3.941

  • Gold -3.85 @ 1839.35

  • Silver -0.043 @ 24.188

  • Copper +0.0365 @ 4.5065

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):

  • American Airlines (AAL) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus

  • Alcoa (AA) beats by $0.51, misses on revs, expects 1Q22 EPS to be similar to 4Q21 EPS, which implies upside guidance

  • Baker Hughes (BKR) misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line

  • BankUnited (BKU) beats by $0.54

  • Circor's (CIR) President and CEO to step down, Aerospace & Defense Group President promoted to COO and interim CEO; company reaffirms Q4 guidance

  • Crescent Energy (CRGY) Provides Initial 2022 Guidance

  • Columbia Banking (COLB) misses by $0.04

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS) misses by $0.04, misses on revs

  • Endeavour Silver (EXK) Provides 2022 Guidance, Including Production of 4.2-4.8Million oz Silver and 31,000-35,000 oz Gold for 6.7-7.6Million oz Silver Equivalent

  • Enviva (EVA) signs MOU with U.S.-based clean-tech company, accelerates plans to double production capacity over next five years, and provides preliminary results for FY21

  • Fifth Third (FITB) reports EPS in-line

  • First Horizon (FHN) beats by $0.11

  • F.N.B. Corp (FNB) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs

  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line

  • KeyCorp (KEY) beats by $0.08, beats on revs

  • Kinder Morgan (KMI) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; expects to raise dividend 3% to $1.11/share in 2022

  • M&T Bank (MTB) reports Q4 (Dec) results

  • Pacific Premier (PPBI) beats by $0.05, beats on revs

  • PacWest Bancorp (PACW) beats by $0.13, reports loan growth of 11.8%

  • Regions Fincl (RF) misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line

  • Sandy Spring Banc (SASR) misses by $0.01

  • Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) reports FY21 production above lower level of guidance

  • Signet Jewelers (SIG) raises Q4 revenue and same store sales guidance; reports holiday sales

  • Sterling Bancorp (STL) beats by $0.14, beats on revs

  • Synovus (SNV) beats by $0.27

  • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs

  • United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.49, beats on revs; expects MarQ capacity to be down 16-18% vs 1Q19

  • Webster Financial (WBS) beats by $0.12, beats on revs

  • Wintrust Fin (WTFC) beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • WNS (WNS) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs above consensus

  • Zymeworks (ZYME) Provides Corporate Update on Key Strategic Priorities and Outlook for 2022


  • General News:

  • President Biden expects Russia "will move into" Ukraine, but suggests a "minor incursion" would result in NATO discussing consequences. Ukrainian officials believe Mr. Biden gave Russia the "green light" to enter Ukraine, according to CNN

  • President Biden believes Congress can pass portions of Build Back Better Act, such as climate policy and childhood education, according to CNBC

  • Several House Democrats say they will not support scaled back Build Back Better Act because the legislation will not reform the state and local tax deduction, according to Bloomberg

  • President Biden was asked if he will remove China tariffs and he responded "we're not there yet"

  • Senate vote on changing filibuster rules for voting rights bills fails by a vote of a 48-52

  • PBOC cuts loan market quoted interest rate to 3.7% (from 3.8%)

  • Fauci says FDA could approve coronavirus vaccine for kids under 5 next month, according to CNBC

  • Aadi Bioscience (AADI) entered into certain negotiated purchase order terms and conditions for clinical and commercial product with Fresenius Kabi

  • Amazon (AMZN) introduces first-ever physical apparel store

  • Amerant Bancorp (AMTB) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.09/share from $0.06/share

  • Amgen (AMGN) receives approval of LUMAKRAS in Japan

  • argenx (ARGX) receives approval of VYVGART in Japan

  • BeiGene (BGNE) receives acceptance of sNDA for BRUKINSA in China

  • Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) approves $140 mln share repurchase program

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) and Pepsi (PEP) aiming to introduce vegan jerky snack, according to Bloomberg

  • Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) along with OrbusNeich Medical Company announces FDA PMA approval of OrbusNeich's Scoreflex NC Scoring Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty Catheter

  • ChromaDex (CDXC) announced a supply agreement with Designs for Health, a U.S.-based manufacturer of premium dietary supplements for healthcare practitioners

  • Coca Cola (KO) aiming to introduce new designed cans, according to the New York Post

  • Encompass Health (EHC) announces plan to spin off its home health and hospice business to form an independent, publicly traded company

  • Entegris (ENTG) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.10/share from $0.08/share

  • Denison Mines (DNN) announces approval for amendment to uranium mine and mill license for McClean Lake Operation

  • Golar LNG (GLNG) provides Cool Company Ltd. formation update

  • Google (GOOG) aiming to create blockchain group, according to Bloomberg

  • Greif (GEF) implementing $50/ton increase for all grades of uncoated recycled paperboard and a minimum 6.0 percent increase on all tube and core and protective packaging products

  • Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) provides preliminary operating results for December 2021

  • Intl Game Tech. PLC (IGT) implemented a number of changes to the Company's executive team and board

  • KemPharm (KMPH) Issues Letter to Shareholders Detailing Strategic Focus on CNS/Rare Disease Indications and Updated Clinical Development Strategy

  • Marriott (MAR) announces a strong year of rooms growth and signings in 2021

  • Merck (MRK): Results from pivotal phase 3 KEYNOTE-775/Study 309 Trial of KEYTRUDA plus LENVIMA in advanced endometrial carcinoma published in the New England Journal of Medicine

  • National Retail Properties (NNN) announces retirement of Julian E. Whitehurst as CEO, effective April 28

  • New York City REIT (NYC) collected 95% of the original cash rent due for the fourth quarter 2021 as of January 19, 2022

  • Novavax (NVAX) receives provisional registration for COVID-19 Vaccine from Australia's TGA

  • Nuvation Bio (NUVB) announces FDA clearance of IND application to evaluate NUV-868 for the treatment of advanced solid tumors

  • Omeros (OMER) confirms submission of response to FDA's CRL for narsoplimab

  • Parsons (PSN) awarded $11 mln contract by DARPA to prototype ground operations for Blackjack Mission

  • PetroChina (PTR) provides PetroChina Fuel Oil Company Limited update

  • Pfizer (PFE) awarded $2.05 bln Army contract modification for additional doses of COVID-19 vaccine

  • Phillips 66 (PSX) and NOVONIX sign technology development agreement to advance production of lithium-ion batteries in North America

  • ReNew Energy Global (RNW) and Fluence to set up local joint venture to boost energy storage sector in India

  • The Beauty Health Company (SKIN) appoints Andrew Stanleick as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective February 7, 2022

  • Yandex N.V. (YNDX) confirmed settlement with Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia and a consortium of Russian Internet companies in connection with an antitrust claim brought against Yandex


  • M&A:

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) in discussions to purchase Chief Oil and Gas for $2.4 bln, according to Reuters

  • Fifth Third (FITB) agrees to acquire Dividend Finance; terms not disclosed

  • Hut 8 Mining (HUT) acquires the cloud and data center business from TeraGo

  • KKR (KKR) confirms acquisition of Merchants Mortgage Trust & Corp.; terms not disclosed

  • Paya Holdings (PAYA) acquires VelocIT Business Solutions; financial terms not disclosed

  • SEMRush (SEMR) announces acquisition of Backlinko; terms not disclosed

  • Silver Spike Acquisition Corp II (SPKB): Eleusis to become public company in merger with Silver Spike Acquisition Corp. II


  • Syndicate:

  • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) prices offering of 20 mln shares of common stock at for gross proceeds of $783.0 mln

  • Enviva (EVA) prices offering of 4.3 mln shares of common stock at $70.00 per share


  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • Four Springs Capital Trust (NYSE: FSPR): The REIT that's focused on acquiring, owning and actively managing a diversified portfolio of single-tenant, income-producing commercial properties is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $13-$15.

  • Rhodium Enterprises (Nasdaq: RHDN): The industrial-scale digital asset technology company utilizing its proprietary technologies to mine bitcoin is expected to price its 7.7 M share IPO between $12-$14.

  • Verdant Earth Technologies (Nasdaq: VDNT): The development stage green energy company is expected to price its 6.3 M share IPO between $7-$9.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MCRB +9%, SEMR +4.3%, NVAX +3%, ARGX +2.8%, ENTG +2.1%, AA +2%, AADI +1.8%, KNTE +1.2%, ASTS +1.2%, KMI +1%, PAYA +0.7%, OMER +0.6%, WNS +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • WTFC -6.1%, AMH -4.4%, RF -4.2%, ZYME -4%, EHC-2.8%, DFS -2.4%, FUL -2.2%, EVA -2.1%, NNN -2%, HT -2%, UMPQ -2%, STL -1.3%, FITB -0.8%, FNB-0.7%, UAL -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Ameresco (AMRC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $65

  • CME Group (CME) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Rosenblatt; tgt $254

  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company; tgt $77

  • Etsy (ETSY) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $200

  • Evoqua Water (AQUA) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $45

  • Hawaiian Electric (HE) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Guggenheim; tgt $41

  • NovoCure (NVCR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt $125


  • Downgrades:

  • Advanced Micro (AMD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $130

  • American Assets Trust (AAT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $40

  • Ashland (ASH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $110

  • Ball Corp (BLL) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $100

  • Burlington Stores (BURL) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt lowered to $190

  • Carvana (CVNA) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets

  • First Community (FCCO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

  • Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt raised to $25

  • Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • Holly Energy Partners (HEP) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $17

  • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $24.50

  • Int'l Paper (IP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $155


  • Others:

  • Affirm (AFRM) initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $72

  • Allianz AG (AZ) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $18

  • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $34

  • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) initiated with a Sell at UBS; tgt $103

  • AZEK (AZEK) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $52

  • D.R. Horton (DHI) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $135

  • Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $130

  • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $54

  • JELD-WEN (JELD) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $39

  • KB Home (KBH) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $67

  • Lennar (LEN) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $145

  • Masco (MAS) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $86

  • Maxar Technologies (MAXR) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $42

  • Mohawk (MHK) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $180

  • NVR (NVR) initiated with a Sell at UBS; tgt $4825

  • Owens Corning (OC) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $122

  • PulteGroup (PHM) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $63

  • Toll Brothers (TOL) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $71

  • Trex (TREX) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $111


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Jan. 15 (Briefing.comConsensus 211K; Prior 230K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Jan. 8 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.559M)

  • 08:30 ET: Philadelphia Fed Index for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus 20.0; Prior 15.4)

  • 10:00 ET: Existing Home Sales for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 6.42M; Prior 6.46M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Jan. 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -179 bcf)

  • 11:00 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Jan. 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -4.55M)


  • Earnings:

  • Tuesday (Jan 18)

  • Morning: BK SCHW FMBI GS ONB PNC SBNY SI TFC

  • Afternoon: FULT HWC IBKR JBHT PNFP PRGS UCBI


  • Wednesday (Jan 19)

  • Morning: ASML BAC BOKF CFG CMA CBSH FAST MS PG PLD STT USB UNH

  • Afternoon: AA COLB DFS FNB FUL KMI STL UMPQ UAL WTFC


  • Thursday (Jan 20)

  • Morning: AAL BKR BKU FITB FHN HOMB KEY MTB NTRS PPBI RF SASR SNV TRV UNP WBS WNS

  • During Market Hours: WABC

  • Afternoon: ASB OZK CSX ISRG LLNW NBHC NFLX PBCT PPG SIVB TCBI


  • Friday (Jan 21)

  • Morning: ALLY FHB HBAN INFO SLB




Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +3.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year loan prime rate by ten basis points to 3.7% and lowered the five-year rate by five basis points to 4.60%, in line with speculation from this week. Japan's Prime Minister Kishida confirmed that a quasi-emergency will be declared in Tokyo between January 21 and February 13.Australia's unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since August 2008 in the December reading.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's December trade deficit JPY582.40 bln (expected deficit of JPY784.10 bln; last deficit of JPY955.60 bln). December Imports 41.1% yr/yr (expected 42.8%; last 43.8%) and Exports 17.5% yr/yr (expected 16.0%; last 20.5%)

  • South Korea's December PPI 0.0% m/m (last 0.7%); 9.0% yr/yr (last 9.8%)

  • Australia's December Employment Change 64,800 (expected 43,300; last 366,100) and full Employment Change 41,500 (last 128,300). December Unemployment Rate 4.2% (expected 4.5%; last 4.6%) and Participation Rate 66.1% (expected 66.2%; last 66.1%). MI Inflation Expectations 4.4% (last 4.8%)

  • New Zealand's December FPI 0.6% m/m (last -0.6%)

  • Hong Kong's December CPI 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 1.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.1%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +3.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: -1.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 114.28

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.3483

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 74.50

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.2%

Major European indices trade in mixed fashion. British Prime Minister Johnson announced the lifting of the U.K.'s mask mandate and the removal of compulsory vaccine passports. A parliamentary committee in the U.K. is looking to cut the minimum time requirement between no-confidence votes to six months from one year. European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated that prices are expected to stabilize this year and "gradually decline" during the course of the year. ECB policymaker De Cos said that a rate hike in 2022 is unlikely. Norges Bank repeated its guidance for a rate hike in March.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's December CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 5.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.9%). December Core CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%); 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%)

  • Germany's December PPI 5.0% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.8%); 24.2% yr/yr (expected 19.4%; last 19.2%)

  • France's January Business Survey 112 (expected 111; last 110)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1336

  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.3603

  • USD/CHF: UNCH at 0.9154


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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures