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19/10/22 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 117 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Equity futures reversed earlier gains as Treasury yields inched higher. Price action reflects skittishness about rates going even higher from here after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2023 FOMC voter) said he believes the Fed might need to raise rates above 4.75% if there's no improvement in core inflation, according to Reuters

The 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 4.08% and the 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.50%.

Better-than-expected quarterly results from Netflix, Procter & Gamble, ASML, Travelers, and United Airlines have mitigated some selling interest.

In overseas news, the Bank of England confirmed it will sell gilts in November but said it will hold off on selling longer dated gilts this year. The UK's September CPI jumped to 10.1% year-over-year, revisiting this year's peak from July.

President Biden announced the release of 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to be delivered in December. WTI crude oil futures move higher this morning, up 1.2% to $83.08/bbl.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index declined 4.5%, as mortgage demand hit its lowest level since 1997, according to CNBC.

Other data out today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: September Housing Starts (Briefing.comconsensus 1.465 million; prior 1.575 million) and September Building Permits (Briefing.comconsensus 1.550 million; prior 1.517 million)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +9.88 million)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: October Fed Beige Book

In corporate news:

  • United Airlines (UAL 39.20, +1.95, +5.23%): beats by $0.52, beats on revs; sees Q4 adj. op margin above 2019 for the first time

  • Netflix (NFLX 271.61, +30.75, +12.77%): beats by $0.93, beats on revs, paid net adds of 2.41 mln compared to prior guidance of 1.00 mln; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus, expects paid net adds of 4.5 mln

  • Travelers (TRV 168.00, +1.23, +0.74%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs

  • ASML (ASML 420.76, +21.77, +5.46%): beats by $0.82, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Procter & Gamble (PG 131.00, +2.63, +2.05%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Adobe (ADBE 298.00, +5.02, +1.71%): reaffirms Q4 targets; guides FY23 EPS and revs under expectations, ex-Figma

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG 212.76, +19.03, +9.82%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; increases FY22 procedure guidance to 17-18% from 14.0-16.5%; lowers high end of FY22 gross margin guidance, sees gross margin of 69.0-69.5% compared to prior guidance of 69.0-70.5%

  • Generac (GNRC 123.01, -24.73, -16.74%): sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus; lowers FY22 outlook

  • Olaplex (OLPX 5.38, -4.41, -45.05%): issues downside Q3 revenue guidance, lowers FY22 revenue and adjusted net income guidance

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM 101.15, +0.35, +0.35%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies 

  • Abbott Labs (ABT 107.59, +2.61, +2.49%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.2%, India's Sensex: +0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Australia's September MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last -0.2%)

  • New Zealand's mid-October GDT Price Index -4.6% (last -3.5%)

  • In news:

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that recent yen weakening has been sharp and one-sided while Finance Minister Suzuki said that currency markets are being watched at an increased frequency.

  • There was speculation that China's loan prime rate will be reduced more.

  • Reuters reported that the U.S. government may begin jointly producing weapons with Taiwan.

  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (-0.6%) underperforms. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH, Germany's DAX: -0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's September CPI 1.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 9.9% yr/yr (expected 10.0%; last 9.1%). September Core CPI 1.0% m/m, as expected (last 4.3%); 4.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.3%). August Construction Output -0.63% m/m (last 0.27%)

  • U.K.'s September CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); 10.1% yr/yr (expected 10.0%; last 9.9%). September Core CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.8%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.4%; last 6.3%). September Input PPI 0.4% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.9%) and Output PPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%)

  • In news:

  • British Prime Minister Truss said during her weekly appearance in parliament that she is not a quitter.

  • The U.K.'s September CPI was up 10.1% yr/yr, revisiting this year's peak from July, while the eurozone's CPI was up 9.9% yr/yr, accelerating at its fastest pace since the euro's inception.

  • European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that the ECB should begin reducing its bond portfolio soon.

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -14 @ 3,706

  • DJIA Futures: -78 @ 30,445

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -45 @ 11,102

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.08 @ 83.15

  • Nat Gas  -0.015 @ 5.73

  • Gold -16.40 @ 1639.35

  • Silver -0.208  @ 18.392

  • Copper -0.0380 @ 3.324

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance:

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; raises FY22 EPS above consensus

  • Adobe (ADBE) reaffirms Q4 targets; guides FY23 EPS and revs under expectations, ex-Figma

  • Ally Financial (ALLY) misses by $0.61, misses on revs

  • Arch Capital (ACGL) estimates pre-tax net catastrophe losses of $530-560 mln across the property casualty insurance and reinsurance segments in Q3

  • ASML (ASML) beats by $0.82, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Baker Hughes (BKR) beats by $0.01, misses on revs

  • BHP Group (BHP) reports FY22 results

  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beats by $0.03

  • Comerica (CMA) beats by $0.03

  • Elevance Health (ELV) beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS above consensus

  • First Horizon (FHN) beats by $0.01

  • F.N.B. Corp (FNB) beats by $0.03, beats on revs

  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) beats by $0.01, beats on revs

  • Generac (GNRC) sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus; lowers FY22 outlook

  • Hancock Whitney (HWC) beats by $0.01, net interest income increased 14% from 2Q22

  • Healthcare Services Group (HCSG) misses by $0.07, beats on revs

  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; increases FY22 procedure guidance to 17-18% from 14.0-16.5%; lowers high end of FY22 gross margin guidance, sees gross margin of 69.0-69.5% compared to prior guidance of 69.0-70.5%

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) beats by $0.07, beats on revs

  • J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) beats by $0.12, beats on revs

  • Laredo Petroleum (LPI) issues preliminary operating results for Q3; oil production of ~35.0 thousand barrels of oil per day below company's guidance

  • Lithia Motors (LAD) misses by $0.82, reports revs in-line

  • M&T Bank (MTB) reports Q3 (Sep) results

  • MarketAxess (MKTX) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line

  • NASDAQ (NDAQ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line

  • Nestle (NSRGY) reports 9-month trading update; raises organic sales growth outlook

  • Netflix (NFLX) beats by $0.93, beats on revs, paid net adds of 2.41 mln compared to prior guidance of 1.00 mln; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus, expects paid net adds of 4.5 mln

  • Northern Trust (NTRS) misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line

  • Olaplex (OLPX) issues downside Q3 revenue guidance, lowers FY22 revenue and adjusted net income guidance

  • Omnicom (OMC) beats by $0.06, beats on revs

  • Pinnacle Finl (PNFP) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; sees FY22 revenues up around high-teens percentage over FY21; declares dividend

  • Procter & Gamble (PG) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Stepan Company (SCL) beats by $0.40, beats on revs; increases quarterly dividend by 9%

  • Travelers (TRV) beats by $0.60, beats on revs

  • Trinseo (TSE) issues preliminary results for Q3 and announces that its evaluating initiatives to reduce its asset footprint

  • United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.52, beats on revs; sees Q4 adj. op margin above 2019 for the first time

  • United Comm Banks (UCBI) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs

  • Vimeo (VMEO) reports September 2022 total sales +5% yr/yr, subscribers -1% yr/yr, ARPU +5% yr/yr

  • Winnebago (WGO) beats by $0.30, beats on revs

  • Wintrust Fin (WTFC) beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line

  • News:

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari (2023 voter) believes Fed might need to raise rates above 4.75%, according to Reuters

  • Fed officials are united on plan to increase rates by 75 basis points next month as policymakers are "alarmed" by high inflation, according to the New York Times

  • UK considering windfall profits tax on banks and energy profits, according to Financial Times

  • UK September CPI 10.1% yr/yr versus 9.9% prior

  • President Biden announces that US will release 15 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve to be delivered in December

  • Aecom Tech (ACM) has been awarded a contract by the Toronto Transit Commission to serve as owner's engineer for the Bloor-Yonge Capacity Improvements project

  • Amazon (AMZN) to offer UK customers home insurance, according to Bloomberg

  • American Woodmark (AMWD) to increase its stock kitchen and bath cabinet capacity for east coast markets through a total expected capital investment of approximately $65 mln over the next two years

  • Bank of America (BAC) wants flexibility in return to office plans, according to Bloomberg

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) discloses settlement update

  • Blink Charging (BLNK) reiterates commitment to U.S. manufacturing with a new facility to expand charging capabilities; estimated capacity will have a minimum of 10,000 DCFC's and 20,000-40,000 L2 chargers per year

  • Boeing (BA) accelerates MRO localization with Indian partners

  • Brown & Brown (BRO) increases its quarterly dividend 12.2% to $0.1150/share

  • Coinbase Global (COIN) announces strategic integration with Primer to allow merchants to add crypto as a standard method of payment

  • Equinox Gold (EQX) announces the results of a Feasibility Study for an expansion at the Company's 100%-owned Los Filos Mine Complex located in Mexico

  • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) promotes Brandon Moore to the role of COO; promotes Desiree Burke to role of CFO; both appointments are effective immediately

  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) and Zymeworks (ZYME) announce exclusive license agreement to develop and commercialize zanidatamab, a HER2-targeted bispecific antibody

  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) Announces Publications in the Journal of Medicinal Chemistry and Xenobiotica for Sebetralstat

  • Kamada (KMDA) awarded $22 mln extension of Canadian supply tender

  • Kaman's (KAMN) Kaman Air Vehicles receives purchase agreement from North American Helicopter for a K-MAX helicopter with delivery expected in 4Q22

  • Liberty Energy (LBRT) authorizes the reinstatement of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05/share

  • Lincoln Electric (LECO) approves 14.3% increase in quarterly dividend from $0.56/share to $0.64/share on annualized basis

  • Helmerich & Payne (HP) establishes 2023 supplemental shareholder return plan; projected to provide approximately $100 mln in additional cash returns in the form of additional dividends; sets FY23CapEx budget; guides for Q4

  • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) increases quarterly common stock dividend to $0.55 per share from $0.52 per share

  • PTC (PTCT) Provides Update on Ongoing Global PIVOT-HD Trial For PTC518

  • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) unit, Genentech, to Present New Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) Data in Multiple Sclerosis and Continued Research Into Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder at ECTRIMS 2022

  • SeaSpine (SPNE) Announces Full Commercial Launch of the 7D FLASH Navigation System Percutaneous Spine Module for Minimally Invasive Surgery

  • Starbucks (SBUX) to sell Seattle's Best Coffee brand to Nestl (NSRGY)

  • Tesla (TSLA) has leased new building in Pontoon Beach, IL, according to Electrek

  • TSMC (TSM) believes US-China tensions are negative for chip industry, according to Reuters

  • TSMC (TSM) wants to expand in Japan, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Vaalco Energy (EGY) completes FSO Installation and Field Reconfiguration Project at Etame and strong production and sales volumes for Q3 2022

  • Woodward (WWD) announces a streamlined Aerospace and Industrial organizational structure to enhance customers' sales experience, simply operations, and increase profitability

  • M&A:

  • City Holding Co (CHCO) agrees to acquire Citizens Commerce Bancshares; aggregate deal value of $61 mln

  • Greenlight Capital (GLRE) announced an investment in SafelyStay

  • LMF Acquisition Opportunities (LMAO) stockholders approve previously announced business combination with SeaStar Medical

  • Open Text (OTEX): Micro Focus International shareholders approve previously announced all-cash offer by OTEX to acquire the company

  • Syndicate

  • Insmed (INSM) entered into a revenue interest purchase agreement

  • Silk Road Medical (SILK) prices offering of 2,325,582 shares of its common stock at $43.00 per share

  • VICI Properties (VICI) enters into a delayed draw term load facility for up to $200 mln to fund the development of Canyon Ranch's newest wellness-resort offering in TX

  • XPO Logistics (XPO) discloses it entered into a revolving Credit Agreement

  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • NFLX +13.8%, ISRG +10.2%, UAL +7%, ASML +6.6%, LBRT +4%, VMEO +2.9%, JBHT +2.6%, ADBE +2.4%, CFG +2.3%, BLNK +2.2%, EGY +1.9%, OMC +1.8%, ELV +1.5%, LECO +1%, USO +0.7%, COIN +0.7%, WTFC +0.7%

  • Gapping down:

  • OLPX -44.3%, GNRC -14.7%, PTCT -12.5%, DNLI-7%, BHVN -6.5%, FNB -6.2%, LPI -6.1%, SPNE-5.5%, FULT -5%, PNFP -5%, UCBI -3%, LAD -2.1%, SILK -1.4%, TSE -0.8%, BHP -0.6%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $147

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $133

  • Downgrades:

  • Advance Auto (AAP) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $180

  • Boston Properties (BXP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • Paramount Group (PGRE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

  • Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $12

  • Others:

  • Affiliated Managers (AMG) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $140

  • AllianceBernstein (AB) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $28

  • Apollo Global Management (APO) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $59.50

  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $25

  • Atkore International (ATKR) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $110

  • BlackRock (BLK) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $540

  • Blackstone (BX) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $85.50

  • Blue Owl Capital (OWL) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $9

  • Carlyle Group (CG) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $38.50

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $80

  • Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $9

  • Franklin Resources (BEN) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $21

  • GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $9

  • Home Depot (HD) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $350

  • Invesco (IVZ) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $13

  • Janus Henderson Group (JHG) assumed with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $18

  • KKR (KKR) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $48

  • LPL Financial (LPLA) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $262

  • Raymond James (RJF) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $120

  • Sculptor Capital (SCU) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $9.50

  • T. Rowe Price (TROW) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $70

  • TPG Inc. (TPG) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $27.50

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Oct. 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -2.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Housing Starts for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 1465K; Prior 1575K)

  • 08:30 ET: Building Permits for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 1550K; Prior 1517K)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Oct. 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior +9.88M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed Beige Book

  • Earnings

  • Monday (Oct 17)

  • Morning: BAC BK SCHW

  • Afternoon:  ELS MRTN

  • Tuesday (Oct 18)

  • Morning: ACI CBSH GS HAS JNJ LMT SBNY SI STT TFC

  • Afternoon:  FNB FHN FULT HWC IBKR ISRG JBHT NFLX OMC PNFP UAL UCBI WTFC

  • Wednesday (Oct 19)

  • Morning: ABT ALLY ASML BMI BKR CFG CMA ELV HCSG LAD MTB MKTX NDAQ NTRS PG PLD SCL TRV UNF WGO

  • Afternoon: AA CNS CCI CVBF EFX FR IBM KALU KMI KNX LRCX LSTR LBRT PACW PPG REXR RLI SLG STLD TSLA TCBI UMPQ WDFC

  • Thursday (Oct 20) 

  • Morning:  ABB ALK AAL T AUB BANC BKU BHLB BX COLB DHR DOV DOW EWBC ERIC FITB FCX GPC HRI HOMB IRDM KEY LNN MAN MMC MSM NOK NUE PPBI PM POOL DGX SASR SNA SNV TSCO UNP WSO WBS WNS

  • Afternoon: ASB OZK BJRI SAM BDN CSX EEFT FFBC GBCI HTH RHI SNAP SIVB THC UFPI WAL WHR

  • Friday (Oct 21)

  • Morning: AXP ALV HCA HBAN IPG RF SLB SXT SMPL VZ

  • Afternoon: None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that recent yen weakening has been sharp and one-sided while Finance Minister Suzuki said that currency markets are being watched at an increased frequency. There was speculation that China's loan prime rate will be reduced more. Reuters reported that the U.S. government may begin jointly producing weapons with Taiwan.

  • In economic data:

  • Australia's September MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last -0.2%)

  • New Zealand's mid-October GDT Price Index -4.6% (last -3.5%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.2%

  • India's Sensex: +0.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 149.57

  • USD/CNH: +0.5% to 7.2529

  • USD/INR: +0.9% to 83.00

Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.2%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (-0.6%) underperforms. British Prime Minister Truss said during her weekly appearance in parliament that she is not a quitter. The U.K.'s September CPI was up 10.1% yr/yr, revisiting this year's peak from July, while the eurozone's CPI was up 9.9% yr/yr, accelerating at its fastest pace since the euro's inception. European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that the ECB should begin reducing its bond portfolio soon.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's September CPI 1.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 9.9% yr/yr (expected 10.0%; last 9.1%). September Core CPI 1.0% m/m, as expected (last 4.3%); 4.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.3%). August Construction Output -0.63% m/m (last 0.27%)

  • U.K.'s September CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); 10.1% yr/yr (expected 10.0%; last 9.9%). September Core CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.8%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.4%; last 6.3%). September Input PPI 0.4% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.9%) and Output PPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: UNCH

  • Germany's DAX: -0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.9% to 0.9771

  • GBP/USD: -0.8% to 1.1230

  • USD/CHF: +1.0% to 1.0033


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