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19/04/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 26 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 135 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

The stock market is headed for a lower open as investors digest a slate of earnings news. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lagging, feeling the pinch of an earnings-driven loss in Netflix along with weakness from mega cap components. Treasury yields have been rising, reflecting concerns about the Fed's policy path, which has acted as a headwind for growth stocks that have made a big run recently.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone and the U.K. showed no improvement in core inflation. In the eurozone, core-CPI rose to 5.7% year-over-year in March from 5.6% and in the U.K. core-CPI was up 6.2% year-over-year, unchanged from February.

The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.27% and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.62%. The inflation reports have overshadowed an 8.8% week-over-week decline in mortgage applications. 

In corporate news:

  • Netflix (NLFX 329.38, -4.32, -1.3%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus as co shifts timing for paid sharing broad launch from late Q1 to Q2

  • Fox (FOX 30.98, -0.22, -0.7%): to settle lawsuit with Dominion, according to WSJ

  • Travelers (TRV 180.39, +8.39, +4.9%): beats by $0.52, beats on revs; raises dividend; authorizes additional $5 bln of share repurchases

  • United Airlines (UAL 43.45, +0.41, +1.0%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS target

  • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL 39.89, +7.38, +22.7%): beats by $0.27, net interest income increased 35.7% yr/yr

  • Tesla (TSLA 180.75, -3.56, -1.9%): lowers Model 3 & Y prices again, according to Bloomberg; reporting earnings results after the close today

  • Exxon (XOM 116.00, -0.94, -0.8%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG 291.00, +21.72, +8.1%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; worldwide da Vinci procedures grew by approximately 26%

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB 35.56, +0.37, +1.1%): misses by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • CDW (CDW 169.75, -20.54, -10.8%): guides Q1 net sales below consensus due to more cautious buying; expects US IT market to decline at a high single-digit rate in 2023; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities

  • ASML (ASML 627.28, -16.05, -2.5%): beats by 0.80, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus

  • Meta Platforms (META 214.80, -3.09, -1.4%): is preparing for additional layoffs across its platforms, according to Bloomberg

  • Disney (DIS 100.30, -0.63, -0.6%): will likely eliminate thousands of jobs next week, according to Bloomberg

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 88.75, -1.10, -1.2%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Abbott Labs (ABT 106.00, +1.85, +1.8%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%, India's Sensex: -0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%.

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's February Industrial Production 4.6% m/m (expected 4.5%; last -5.3%) and Capacity Utilization 3.9% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.5%). April Reuters Tankan Index -3 (expected -1; last -1)

      • Australia's March Leading Index 0.0% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%) 

    • In news:

      • The Bank of Japan is expected to hold off on changes to its yield curve control policy past next week's meeting. The central bank is expected to issue a forecast calling for 2.0% inflation in FY25.

      • Treasury Secretary Yellen is expected to comment on the relationship with China during a speech on Thursday.

  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: -0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH, Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's March CPI 0.9% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); 6.9% yr/yr, as expected (last 8.5%). March Core CPI 1.3% m/m (expected 1.2%; last 0.8%); 5.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.6%). February Construction Output 2.37% (expected 0.00%; last 3.73%). February Current Account surplus EUR24.30 bln (expected EUR6.70 bln; last EUR17.00 bln)

      • U.K.'s March CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 1.1%); 10.1% yr/yr (expected 9.8%; last 10.4%). March Core CPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 1.2%); 6.2% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%). March Input PPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.0%) and Output PPI 0.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.4%)

    • In news:

      • Expectations are solidifying for a 25-bps rate hike from the Bank of England on May 11.

      • European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said that it will be appropriate to raise rates again in May if the baseline projection persists.

      • Ambulance workers in the U.K. are planning another strike for next month while rail workers in Germany will hold a nationwide strike on Friday.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -23 @ 4,132

  • DJIA Futures: -113 @ 33,864

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -98 @ 12,993

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.3%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -1.52 @ 79.38

  • Nat Gas -0.059 @ 2.307

  • Gold -37.25 @ 1982.40

  • Silver -0.043 @ 24.78

  • Copper -0.0595 @ 4.032


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Ally Financial (ALLY) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line

  • ASML (ASML) beats by 0.80, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus

  • Baker Hughes (BKR) beats by $0.02, beats on revs

  • CDW (CDW) guides Q1 net sales below consensus due to more cautious buying; expects US IT market to decline at a high single-digit rate in 2023

  • Central Garden (CENT) guides Q2 (Mar) and FY23 (Sep) earnings below consensus largely due to a late start of the garden season; progressing multi-year cost program to improve margins

  • Charge Enterprises (CRGE) reports record infrastructure backlog surpassing $100 million and reaffirms growth strategy

  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line; provides updated outlook for FY23

  • Corporacin Amrica Airports (CAAP) reports a 33.6% YoY increase in passenger traffic in March 2023, reaching 92% of March 2019 levels

  • Elevance Health (ELV) beats by $0.17, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS in-line

  • First Horizon (FHN) misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; as previously announced, will be acquired by TD Bank (TD)

  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) misses by $0.09, misses on revs

  • Hancock Whitney (HWC) beats by $0.02

  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) misses by $0.06, reports revs in-line

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; worldwide da Vinci procedures grew by approximately 26%

  • Lithia Motors (LAD) misses by $0.43, misses on revs; raises dividend

  • Marten Transport (MRTN) beats by $0.01, misses on revs

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • NASDAQ (NDAQ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; increases quarterly dividend to $0.22/share from $0.20/share

  • Netflix (NFLX) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus as co shifts timing for paid sharing broad launch from late Q1 to Q2

  • New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus

  • nVent Electric (NVT) sees Q1 EPS and revs above consensus

  • Omnicom (OMC) beats by $0.16, beats on revs

  • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) expects the net earnings effect of third party purchases and sales of oil and gas for the three months ended March 31, 2023 to result in a loss $54 mln

  • Sterling Infrastructure's (STRL) E-Infrastructure Solutions segment reported new awards totaling $325 mln during 1Q23

  • Synchrony Financial (SYF) misses by $0.10

  • Travelers (TRV) beats by $0.52, beats on revs; raises dividend; authorizes additional $5 bln of share repurchases

  • United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS target

  • United Comm Banks (UCBI) misses by $0.11, misses on revs

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) misses by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Vale S.A. (VALE) provides Q1 production update

  • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) beats by $0.27, net interest income increased 35.7% yr/yr

News:

  • Banks are warning that debt ceiling deadline could come sooner than expected, according to Reuters

  • EU Commission welcomes political agreement on the European Chips Act

  • Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) recently completed the four RS-25 engines that will power the core stage of NASA's super heavy-lift Space Launch System rocket during the Artemis III mission

  • Alphabet (GOOG) will launch its first foldable phone, the Pixel Fold, in June, according to CNBC

  • Alphabet (GOOG): UK CMA offers proposed commitments regarding changes to Google Play's rules to allow certain app developers to use alternative billing systems for in-app purchases

  • Chemours (CC) and TC Energy (TRP) collaborate on the development of two clean hydrogen production facilities in West Virginia

  • ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT) Announces Agreement with NE Scientific to Integrate Gene Therapy Infusion Coverage Tool into ClearPoint Maestro Brain Model

  • Denison (DNN) Announces Discovery of High-Grade Uranium Mineralization at Moon Lake South

  • Disney (DIS) will likely eliminate thousands of jobs next week, according to Bloomberg

  • Fox Corporation (FOXA) confirms that a settlement was reached in the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit

  • Guidewire Software (GWRE) President and Chief Operating Officer Priscilla Hung intends to take a sabbatical starting in June 2023, with the specific start date yet to be finalized

  • IDEAYA (IDYA) Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 1 Clinical Trial for IDE161 as Potential First-in-Class PARG Inhibitor Targeting HRD Solid Tumors

  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) bolsters Orbital Services business line with $719 mln NASA award

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) leaked CAR-T cancer therapy study results show large benefits for patients, according to Stat News

  • KBR (KBR) signed a joint development agreement with ISU Chemical Co. Ltd. for the design of a commercial scale lithium sulfide (Li2S) unit for next generation battery technology

  • Linde plc (LIN) to increase capacity of Samsung Display (SSNLF) on-site facility in South Korea

  • Meta (META) is preparing for additional layoffs across its platforms, according to Bloomberg

  • Minerals Tech (MTX) enters into three long-term precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) supply agreements to further expand its product line in China and India

  • ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) Presents Promising Preclinical Data on Two Programs at the 2023 American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting

  • Stratasys (SSYS) Comments on Illegitimacy and Unclear Legality of Nano Dimension's Ongoing Campaign Against Stratasys in the Israeli Court's Latest Ruling on Nano's Litigation with Murchinson Ltd.

  • Surmodics (SRDX) announces successful first patient use of Sublime Radial Access Microcatheter designed for the periphery

  • Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) Presents Preclinical Data on Precision Oncology Programs at the American Association of Cancer Research 2023 Annual Meeting

  • Teck Resources (TECK) in Copper Growth Conference slides: Board unanimously recommends shareholders vote FOR all proposals, including announced separation; notes voting against is a vote for the "status quo"

  • Teck Resources (TECK): Glencore (GLNCY) issues open letter to Teck Class B Shareholders

  • Tesla (TSLA) lowers Model 3 & Y prices again, according to Bloomberg

  • Zymeworks (ZYME) Presents New Data from Multiple Preclinical and Clinical Development Programs at the 2023 American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting

M&A:

  • Akamai Tech (AKAM) to acquire API detection and response platform Neosec; deal to be slightly dilutive to EPS in FY23, financial terms not disclosed

  • Grid Dynamics (GDYN) acquires NextSphere Technologies, expanding its US and India operations; financial details not disclosed

  • Lululemon (LULU): Hydrow mulling bid for Lululemon home fitness business Mirror, according to CNBC

  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) signs agreement to divest China architectural paint business for ~$100 mln

Syndicate:

  • Gamida Cell (GMDA) launches public offering of shares and warrants

  • Vaxcyte (PCVX) prices offering of 11.2 mln shares of common stock at $41.00 per share

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • LUNR +24.7%, WAL +15.1%, EDU +7.7%, ISRG +7%, FHN +2.2%, RF +1.1%, ORIC +0.9%, UAL +0.9%, ELV+0.8%

  • Gapping down:

    • GMDA -21.9%, CDW -5.4%, FULT -4.7%, UCBI -4.4%, IBKR -4.3%, MRTN -3.7%, SYF -3.4%, ASML -3%, PCVX -2.4%, LAD -2.4%, ROKU -1.9%, NE -1.9%, NFLX -1.3%, ZYME -1.1%, FOXA -1%, VALE -1%, GOOG -0.9%, CLPT -0.8%, SAIC -0.8%, CENTA -0.7%, RIG -0.6%, WBD -0.6%, RTX -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Alliant Energy (LNT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $61

    • AZEK (AZEK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $31

    • Global Payments (GPN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $156

  • Downgrades:

    • CDW (CDW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $200

    • Magna (MGA) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $52

  • Others:

    • Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $23

    • Definitive Healthcare (DH) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

    • FirstService (FSV) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $165

    • GE HealthCare (GEHC) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $95

    • Mobileye Global (MBLY) initiated with a Buy at Daiwa Securities; tgt $50

    • PLAYSTUDIOS (MYPS) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $6

Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Apr 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 5.3%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Apr 15 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 0.597M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Apr

Earnings:

  • Monday (Apr 17)

    • Morning:  SCHW MTB STT

    • Afternoon: ELS JBHT PNFP

  • Tuesday (Apr 18)

    • Morning: BAC BK CBSH ERIC GS JNJ LMT PLD

    • Afternoon:  FHN FULT HWC ISRG MRTN NFLX OMC UAL UCBI WAL

  • Wednesday (Apr 19)

    • Morning:  ABT ALLY ASML BKR CFG ELV LAD MS NDAQ EDU SYF TRV USB

    • Afternoon:  AA BDN CALX CNS CCI DFS EFX FNB FFIV FR IBM KMI LRCX LVS LBRT NBHC REXR RLI SLG STLD TSLA WTFC ZION

  • Thursday (Apr 20)

    • Morning: ALK AXP T AN BMI BANC BHLB BX CMA DHI EWBC FITB GPC HRI HOMB HBAN IRDM KEY MAN MMC NOK NUE PM POOL RAD SASR SNA SNV TSM TCBI TFC UNP VIRT WSO WBS

    • Afternoon:  ASB OZK CATY CSX FFBC GBCI HTH KNX PPG STX SEIC VMI WRB

  • Friday (Apr 21) 

    • Morning:  ALV FCX HCA PG RF SAP SLB


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold off on changes to its yield curve control policy past next week's meeting. The central bank is expected to issue a forecast calling for 2.0% inflation in FY25. Treasury Secretary Yellen is expected to comment on the relationship with China during a speech on Thursday.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's February Industrial Production 4.6% m/m (expected 4.5%; last -5.3%) and Capacity Utilization 3.9% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.5%). April Reuters Tankan Index -3 (expected -1; last -1)

    • Australia's March Leading Index 0.0% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%

  • India's Sensex: -0.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.6% to 134.81

  • USD/CNH: +0.4% to 6.9049

  • USD/INR: +0.2% to 82.23

 

Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.3%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. Expectations are solidifying for a 25-bps rate hike from the Bank of England on May 11.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said that it will be appropriate to raise rates again in May if the baseline projection persists. Ambulance workers in the U.K. are planning another strike for next month while rail workers in Germany will hold a nationwide strike on Friday.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's March CPI 0.9% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); 6.9% yr/yr, as expected (last 8.5%). March Core CPI 1.3% m/m (expected 1.2%; last 0.8%); 5.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.6%). February Construction Output 2.37% (expected 0.00%; last 3.73%). February Current Account surplus EUR24.30 bln (expected EUR6.70 bln; last EUR17.00 bln)

    • U.K.'s March CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 1.1%); 10.1% yr/yr (expected 9.8%; last 10.4%). March Core CPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 1.2%); 6.2% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%). March Input PPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.0%) and Output PPI 0.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.4%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%

  • Germany's DAX: -0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH

  • Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.4% to 1.0933

  • GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.2403

  • USD/CHF: +0.4% to 0.8993


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