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19/01/23 Briefing



The S&P 500 futures are down 33 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 107 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 271 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value.

Equity futures indicate a lower open for the stock market, carrying over yesterday's downside momentum. Recession and Fed rate hikes fears continue to plague in front of slate of economic data this morning. Weekly initial jobless claims, December Housing Starts and Building Permits, and the January Philadelphia Fed Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Piling onto the renewed rate hike concerns, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC in an interview 'I think there's a lot of underlying inflation, which won't go away so quick,' adding that he thinks rates will top 5.0%. 

Also, many names that reported quarterly results since yesterday's close are trading down this morning. 

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.10% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.40%.

Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $78.85/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $3.14/mmbtu. 

In corporate news:

  • Alcoa (AA 50.20, -3.25, -6.1%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; projects 2023 total alumina shipments of 12.7-12.9mln metric tons; aluminum shipments between 2.5-2.6mln metric tons

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS 94.85, -7.49, -7.3%):  beats by $0.06, beats on revs

  • Fastenal (FAST 47.08, -0.46, -1.0%): raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.31 prior; beats by $0.01, beats on revs

  • Fifth Third (FITB 32.72, 0.00, 0.0%):  beats by $0.01; issues guidance for Q4 (Dec), issues in-line guidance for FY23 (Dec)

  • Procter & Gamble (PG 142.48, -3.02, -2.1%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance; raises FY23 revenue guidance

  • Truist (TFC 45.33, -0.41, -0.9%): beats by $0.02

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW 79.06, -2.32, -2.9%): downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank of America

  • Philip Morris (PM 99.60, +0.34, +0.3%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Apple (AAPL 133.60, -1.61, -1.2%): ticking lower on news it is looking to expand its smart-home lineup, aimed at challenging Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG), according to Bloomberg

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%, India's Sensex: -0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan' December trade deficit JPY1.449 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.653 trln; last deficit of JPY2.027 trln). December Imports 20.6% yr/yr (expected 22.4%; last 30.3%) and Exports 11.5% yr/yr (expected 10.1%; last 20.0%)

  • Hong Kong's December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (last 3.7%)

  • Australia's December Employment Change -14,600 (expected 22,500; last 58,200) and full Employment Change 17,600 (last 33,200). December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (expected 3.4%; last 3.5%) and Participation Rate 66.6% (expected 66.8%; last 66.8%). January MI Inflation Expectations 5.6% (last 5.2%)

  • New Zealand's December FPI 1.1% m/m (last 0.0%)

  • In news:

  • A Reuters poll showed that 53% of Japanese companies plan to raise wages this year, but 81% of companies expressed pessimism about the next three months.

  • Australia reported disappointing employment data for December.

  • New Zealand's Prime Minister Ardern resigned, planning to leave office by February 7.New Zealand will hold a general election in October.

  • Consumer spending in Thailand during next week's Lunar New Year celebrations is expected to be at a three-year high.

  • Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, but also hinted at a likely pause at its next meeting.

  • Major European indices trade well below their flat lines amid renewed concerns about growth. STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%, Germany's DAX: -1.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.1%, France's CAC 40: -1.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November Current Account surplus EUR13.60 bln (expected deficit of EUR11.60 bln; last deficit of EUR4.50 bln)

  • Swiss December PPI -0.7% m/m (last -0.5%); 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.8%)

  • Spain's November trade deficit EUR3.31 bln (last deficit of EUR6.85 bln)

  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the central bank plans to implement multiple 50-bps rate hikes and that he sees no signs of a slowdown in underlying inflation.

  • EU Economic Commissioner Gentiloni said that the bloc is currently in a contraction that is likely to last two quarters.

  • Norway's central bank left its policy rate at 2.75% but signaled a rate hike in March.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -34 @ 3,895

  • DJIA Futures: -289 @ 33,008

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -112 @ 11,298

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.6%, FTSE -1.1%, CAC -1.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.68 @ 79.12

  • Nat Gas -0.010 @ 3.301

  • Gold +3.40 @ 1910.40

  • Silver -0.137 @ 23.51

  • Copper -0.0485 @ 4.186

 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Alcoa (AA) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; projects 2023 total alumina shipments of 12.7-12.9mln metric tons; aluminum shipments between 2.5-2.6mln metric tons

  • Allstate (ALL) in 8k filing aannounces preliminary results for Q4, with estimated adjusted net loss between $335-385 mln

  • B2Gold (BTG) reports record total gold production for Q4 2022 of 367,870 oz

  • Banc of California (BANC) beats by $0.02

  • BankUnited (BKU) misses by $0.28

  • BHP Group (BHP) provides operational update for 2H22; reiterates FY23 copper, iron ore, metallurgical coal, energy coal, and nickel production targets

  • Comerica (CMA) beats by $0.02

  • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) beats by $0.02, misses on revs

  • Daqo New Energy (DQ) subsidiary Xinjiang Daqo provides preliminary estimates of net profit for 2022

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS) beats by $0.06, beats on revs

  • Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) reports Q4 EPS of $1.32 vs. $1.16 Capital IQ consensus

  • Fastenal (FAST) beats by $0.01, beats on revs

  • Fifth Third (FITB) beats by $0.01; provides outlook for FY23

  • First Horizon (FHN) beats by $0.03

  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) misses by $0.20, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) reports Q4 operating metrics

  • KeyCorp (KEY) misses by $0.17

  • Kinder Morgan (KMI) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs; expects a 2% increase in dividends in FY23 to $1.13/share; authorizes $1.0 bln increase in share repurchase program; announces new CEO

  • M&T Bank (MTB) reports Q4 (Dec) results

  • Matson (MATX) expects consolidated operating income to decline yr/yr in Q4 due to challenging economic conditions

  • nCino (NCNO) announces CFO transition and reaffirms guidance for Q4 and FY23

  • Northern Trust (NTRS) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs

  • Procter & Gamble (PG) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance; raises FY23 revenue guidance

  • TAL Education (TAL) misses on top and bottom lines

  • Tenet Healthcare (THC) announces that it expects to exceed the midpoint of its latest FY22 Adjusted EBITDA outlook range

  • Texas Capital (TCBI) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs

  • Truist (TFC) beats by $0.02

  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) raises its Q2 (Dec) guidance due to its expanding markets and diversified customer base adopting its rack-scale Total IT Solutions

  • Synovus (SNV) misses by $0.01

  • Vimeo (VMEO) reports December 2022 total sales -2% yr/yr, subscribers -5% yr/yr, ARPU +2% yr/yr

  • Wallbox (WBX) announced measures to reduce costs to better align with its 2023 full year guidance; will impact ~15% of the workforce

  • Wintrust Fin (WTFC) misses by $0.35, reports revs in-line

  • WNS (WNS) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

News:

  • Chinese President Xi warns of coronavirus spread ahead of the lunar new year, according to Financial Times

  • President Biden aiming to signal his plans to seek another term shortly after State of the Union on February 7, according to The Hill

  • US preparing major Ukraine military assistance package, according to Politico

  • New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces resignation

  • Expectations that plant based meat market would upend the meat industry were unfounded, according to Bloomberg

  • Hong Kong will remove mandatory isolation for COVID infections on January 31, according to Bloomberg

  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) official to warn lawmakers against letting cryptocurrency exchanges to self-certify with the agency, according toReuters

  • Advantage Solutions (ADV) names Dave Peacock CEO, effective February 1, 2023

  • Akoustis Technologies (AKTS) receives first high-volume 5G mobile filter purchase order from multi-billion-dollar Tier-1 RF component company

  • Allison Transmission (ALSN) selected to provide its 3040 MXTM propulsion solution for the Indian Army's Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) prototype

  • Apple (AAPL) is looking to expand its smart-home lineup, aimed at challenging Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG), according to Bloomberg

  • Asure Software (ASUR) announces integration with H&R Block (HRB), allowing employees to electronically access their W-2s directly from Asure into HRB's software

  • Bally's Corporation (BALY) announces restructuring plan; reducing Interactive workforce by up to 15%

  • BeiGene (BGNE) announced that UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency granted marketing authorizations for BRUKINSA for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and marginal zone lymphoma

  • Black Stone Minerals (BSM) CFO to leave, effective February 28; VP Evan Kiefer to assume role of Interim CFO

  • ICF International (ICFI) awarded a new $161 mln task order to provide digital modernization services to The National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute

  • Intl Game Tech. PLC (IGT) and Greentube sign patent cross-licensing agreement for remote game server; financial terms not disclosed

  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) and Zymeworks (ZYME) announce tolerability and efficacy results, including the fir-st overall survival data, from a Phase 2 trial examining zanidatamab in combination with chemotherapy, in first-line patients with HER2-expressing metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma

  • Fastenal (FAST) raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.31 prior

  • NovoCure (NVCR) announces organizational changes to prepare for future growth

  • Personalis (PSNL) approved a reduction in the Company's workforce by up to approximately 30% to reduce operating costs and improve operating efficiency

  • PGT Inc. (PGTI) collaborating with Corning (GLW) to produce next-gen glass tech beginning this year

  • Roche Hldg's (RHHBY) Tecentriq plus Avastin is the first treatment combination to reduce the risk of cancer returning in people with certain types of early-stage liver cancer in a Phase III trial

  • South Jersey Industries (SJI) requests expedited treatment of the Board of Public Utilities' order in the matter of the merger of SJI and Boardwalk Merger Sub, Inc

  • Southwest Air (LUV) issues announces its intention to call for a strike authorization vote on May 1, 2023

  • Surmodics (SRDX) provides regulatory update related to its FDA premarket approval application for the SurVeil drug-coated balloon

  • Veris Residential (VRE) details path to unlock shareholder value; Kushner Companies not interested in proceeding with a transaction at this time

  • Vornado Rlty Trust (VNO) lowers its quarterly dividend 29% to $0.375/share

  • Yum! Brands (YUM) announced a ransomware attack that impacted certain information technology systems

M&A:

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) enters into agreement to sell Brazos Valley region of its Eagle Ford asset to WildFire Energy I LLC for $1.425 bln

  • Coindesk (COIN) retains investment bankers at Lazard to explore possible partial or full sale, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Shoreline Biosciences enter into definitive agreement for Shoreline to acquire Editas' iNK cell franchise and related gene editing technologies

  • KKR (KKR): EU Commission clears acquisition of joint control of Serentica Renewables Singapore by KKR and Serentica Mauritius

  • Onyx Acceptance Corp. (ONYX) announced that it is in advanced discussions with Helios Investment Partners about a potential business combination which would result in the creation of a new publicly listed energy transition infrastructure platform, Helios Energy Transition Infrastructure

Syndicate:

  • Akoustis Technologies (AKTS) announces proposed public offering of common stock

  • Bluebirdbio (BLUE) prices offering of 20 mln shares of common stock at $6.00 per share

  • Olink Holding (OLK) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Tactile Systems (TCMD) files for $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • TCBI +4.9%, VMEO +4.2%, SMCI +3.7%, BTG +2.7%, BLUE +2.4%, ADV +2.1%, EGBN +1.6%, TCMD +1.4%, TAL +1.4%, NCNO +1.2%, BSM +1.1%, PGTI +1%, APPH +0.7%, KMI +0.7%

  • Gapping down:

  • OLK -12.1%, AKTS -10.1%, WTFC -8.2%, VRE -7.9%, IIPR -7.1%, DCPH -6.8%, DFS -6.6%, AA -6.5%, FUL-3.6%, ALL -3.4%, TFC -2.3%, CBSH -2%, MATX-1.9%, TPIC -1.8%, AAPL -1.1%, VNO -0.8%, SNV-0.7%

 


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • CureVac (CVAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $18

  • Downgrades:

  • Cognizant Tech (CTSH) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson; tgt lowered to $60

  • DXC Technology (DXC) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson; tgt lowered to $28

  • Others:

  • Alpine Immune Sciences (ALPN) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $17

  • CF Industries (CF) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $110

  • Corteva (CTVA) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $78

  • FMC Corp (FMC) assumed with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $148

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Jan. 14 (Briefing.comConsensus 212K; Prior 205K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Jan. 7 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1634K)

  • 08:30 ET: Housing Starts for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 1355K; Prior 1427K)

  • 08:30 ET: Building Permits for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 1370K; Prior 1342K)

  • 08:30 ET: Philadelphia Fed Index for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus -11.0; Prior -13.8)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Jan 14 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior +11 bcf)

  • 11:00 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Jan 14 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 18.96M)

  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Jan 16)

  • Morning:  UMC

  • Tuesday (Jan 17)

  • Morning: CFG GS MS EDU SBNY SI

  • Afternoon:  FULT HWC IBKR PNFP PRGS UAL UCBI

  • Wednesday (Jan 18)

  • Morning:  SCHW PNC PLD

  • Afternoon:  AA DFS FHN FUL KMI TCBI WTFC

  • Thursday (Jan 19)

  • Morning: BANC BKU CMA CBSH FAST FITB HOMB KEY MTB NTRS PG SNV TFC WNS

  • Afternoon:  OZK CNXC FFIN NFLX PPG SIVB

  • Friday (Jan 20) 

  • Morning:  ALLY ERIC HBAN RF SLB STT

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. A Reuters poll showed that 53% of Japanese companies plan to raise wages this year, but 81% of companies expressed pessimism about the next three months. Australia reported disappointing employment data for December. New Zealand's Prime Minister Ardern resigned, planning to leave office by February 7.New Zealand will hold a general election in October. Consumer spending in Thailand during next week's Lunar New Year celebrations is expected to be at a three-year high. Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, but also hinted at a likely pause at its next meeting.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan' December trade deficit JPY1.449 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.653 trln; last deficit of JPY2.027 trln). December Imports 20.6% yr/yr (expected 22.4%; last 30.3%) and Exports 11.5% yr/yr (expected 10.1%; last 20.0%)

  • Hong Kong's December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (last 3.7%)

  • Australia's December Employment Change -14,600 (expected 22,500; last 58,200) and full Employment Change 17,600 (last 33,200). December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (expected 3.4%; last 3.5%) and Participation Rate 66.6% (expected 66.8%; last 66.8%). January MI Inflation Expectations 5.6% (last 5.2%)

  • New Zealand's December FPI 1.1% m/m (last 0.0%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%

  • India's Sensex: -0.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.2% to 128.57

  • USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.7872

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 81.32

 

Europe: DAX -1.6%, FTSE -1.1%, CAC -1.5%

Major European indices trade well below their flat lines amid renewed concerns about growth. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the central bank plans to implement multiple 50-bps rate hikes and that he sees no signs of a slowdown in underlying inflation. EU Economic Commissioner Gentiloni said that the bloc is currently in a contraction that is likely to last two quarters. Norway's central bank left its policy rate at 2.75% but signaled a rate hike in March.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November Current Account surplus EUR13.60 bln (expected deficit of EUR11.60 bln; last deficit of EUR4.50 bln)

  • Swiss December PPI -0.7% m/m (last -0.5%); 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.8%)

  • Spain's November trade deficit EUR3.31 bln (last deficit of EUR6.85 bln)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.6%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -1.5%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.3%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.8%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.0819

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2338

  • USD/CHF: UNCH at 0.9162

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