18/08/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 144 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

Stock futures indicate a lower open despite pleasing earnings and guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT) and Deere (DE) and a drop in market rates. The negative bias stems from concerns about China, as well as the disappointing price action seen so far this month.

China's Evergrande Group filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in a New York court, seeking to restructure more than $19 billion in offshore debt. In related news, the People's Bank of China reportedly instructed state banks to intensify their interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the yuan.

There was some safe haven trading action in the Treasury market overnight. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.91% and the 10-yr note yield is down nine basis points to 4.22%. 

In corporate news:

• Applied Materials (AMAT 140.23, +2.64, +1.9%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS above consensus, revs in-line

• Deere (DE 414.87, -4.29, -1.0%): beats by $1.98, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 net income guidance

• Bloomin' Brands (BLMN 27.50, +1.88, +7.3%): Starboard aiming to take 5% stake in Bloomin' Brands, according to WSJ

• Ross Stores (ROST 118.32, +5.26, +4.7%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides Q4 (Jan) EPS above consensus

• XPeng (XPEV 14.65, -1.00, -6.4%): reports Q2 results; revs in-line; sees Q3 revs below expectations

• Keysight (KEYS 131.10, -18.95, -12.6%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

• Farfetch (FTCH 2.84, -1.92, -40.3%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

• Bill.com(BILL 96.16, -5.40, -5.3%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides SepQ EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

• Dolby Laboratories (DLB 81.50, +4.68, +6.1%): set to join S&P MidCap 400, effective prior to the on Tuesday, August 22

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.6% (-3.2% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.1% (-5.9% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0% (-1.8% for the week), India's Sensex: -0.3% (-0.6% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -0.6% (-3.4% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH (-2.5% for the week).

• In economic data:

• China's July FDI -4.0% YTD (expected 2.0%; last -2.7%)

• Japan's July National CPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.3% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 3.3%). July National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.3%)

• In news:

• The People's Bank of China reportedly instructed state banks to intensify their interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the yuan.

• Evergrande Real Estate filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in a New York court, seeking to restructure more than $19 bln in offshore debt.

• Meanwhile, a district court in China froze Country Garden's stakes in two property companies for three years.

• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its overnight rate at 6.25%, as expected.

• Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week with China-related concerns weighing on sentiment. STOXX Europe 600: -0.9% (-2.6% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.9% (-1.8% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.9% (-3.7% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -1.0% (-3.1% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8% (-2.2% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6% (-2.2% week-to-date).

• In economic data:

• Eurozone's July CPI -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 5.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.5%). July Core CPI -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 5.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.5%). June Construction Output -1.0% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.3%)

• U.K.'s July Retail Sales -1.2% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.6%); -3.2% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last -1.6%). July Core Retail Sales -1.4% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.7%); -3.4% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -1.6%)

• Swiss Q2 Industrial Production -0.8% yr/yr (last 4.2%)

• In news:

• Eurozone's CPI was left unrevised in the final reading for July while the U.K. reported a bigger than expected contraction in retail sales.

• The European Central Bank is reportedly opposed to Italy's plan for imposing a 40% windfall profit tax on banks.

• ECB Chief Economist Lane said that he believes that the European economy will grow over the next couple of years.

U.S. equity futures:

• S&P 500 Futures -23 @ 4,347

• DJIA Futures: -148 @ 34,327

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: -119  @ 14,597

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX -0.9%, FTSE -0.9%, CAC -1.0%

• Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng -2.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -0.54 @ 79.85

• Nat Gas -0.049 @ 2.572

• Gold +8.15 @ 1923.25

• Silver +0.100 @ 22.815

• Copper -0.0170 @ 3.6745

Earnings/Guidance:

• Applied Materials (AMAT) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS above consensus, revs in-line

• Bill.com(BILL) beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides SepQ EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

• Buckle (BKE) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; Q2 comps -3.3%

• Corporacin Amrica Airports (CAAP) reports Q2 (Jun) results; consolidated revs climbed 27.1% yr/yr , or 2.5% above 2Q19; passenger traffic was at 98.6% of 2Q19, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in June

• Deere (DE) beats by $1.98, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 net income guidance

• Estee Lauder (EL) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

• Farfetch (FTCH) beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

• Globant (GLOB) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

• Keysight (KEYS) beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

• Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs above consensus

• Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) beats by $0.30, beats on revs, comps of +1.5%; guides FY23 revs below consensus, lowers comp guidance

• Ross Stores (ROST) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides Q4 (Jan) EPS above consensus

• Vipshop (VIPS) beats by RMB1.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus

• XPeng (XPEV) reports Q2 results; revs in-line; sees Q3 revs below expectations

News:

• US intelligence believes Ukraine counteroffensive will fail to achieve key objectives, according to the Washington Post

• China's central bank is increasing defense of renminbi, according to Financial Times

• China Evergrande filing for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection, according to Bloomberg

• Hurricane Hilary is expected to bring significant flooding to Southern California, CNN

• New coronavirus vaccines are expected this fall as additional variants circulate, according to the Washington Post

• Bitcoin prices fall

• Alexandria RE (ARE) CFO to resign for family health reasons, effective September 15; succeeded by Marc E. Binda, former Executive VP Finance & Treasurer

• Anika Therapeutics (ANIK) receives 510(k) Clearance for Integrity Implant System

• AppFolio (APPF) to reduce its workforce by nearly 9%

• AstraZeneca (AZN) reports Forxiga approved in China

• Bloomin' Brands (BLMN): Starboard aiming to take 5% stake in Bloomin' Brands, according to the Wall Street Journal

• Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY) authorizes share repurchase program up to 5% of its outstanding common stock

• CACI Intl (CACI) awarded $414 mln U.S. Air Force contract

• Calliditas Therapeutics AB (CALT): FDA grants priority review for full approval of TARPEYO for the treatment of IgA Nephropathy

• Can-Fite BioPharma (CANF) announced that it submitted a pediatric study plan to the FDA for the treatment of adolescents suffering from psoriasis with Piclidenoson

• Dillard's (DDS) increases its quarterly dividend 25% to $0.25/share; annual yield of 0.3%

• Hawaiian Electric (HE) issues response to Maui wildfires and efforts to restore electricity; as of August 17 approximately 1,900 customers in West Maui remained without electricity; co is supporting emergency response efforts; goal is not to restructure the company

• HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) last night amended at-the-market equity program

• Lantheus Holdings' (LNTH) Progenics Pharmaceuticals made the decision to discontinue the production and promotion of AZEDRA and will be winding down its Somerset, NJ manufacturing site

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $622 mln U.S. Navy contract

• LPL Financial (LPLA) announces total assets at the end of July were +3.1% yr/yr to $1.28 trln

• MDU Resources (MDU) announces that President and CEO David Goodin intends to retire on January 5

• Merck (MRK) announces WELIREG phase 3 LITESPARK-005 trial met primary endpoint of progression-free survival in certain previously treated patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma

• MeridianLink (MLNK) appoints Edward McDermott as Chair of the Board

• Microsoft (MSFT) expected to hold product event on September 21, according to Verge

• Moderna (MRNA) clinical trail confirms updated COVID-19 vaccine generates robust immune response against widely circulating variants

• Nikola Corporation (NKLA) filed a voluntary recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on August 15, 2023 and has placed a temporary hold on new BEVs sales following coolant leak investigations

• Novartis (NVS) announces Sandoz Listing Prospectus published; Spin-off planned to occur on or around October 4

• Original BARK Co. (BARK) authorizes of share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million common shares

• Republic Services (RSG) announced that the employment of Timothy E. Stuart, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, terminated on August 17, 2023

• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Announces Publication Describing Molecular Basis of Tri-Complex Inhibitors Targeting Oncogenic RAS(ON) Proteins

• Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) signs deal to launch an Earth observation satellite on Electron for the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, a Japan-based Earth imaging company

• U.S. Steel (X) says that the United Steel Workers cannot veto a sale of the company, according to Reuters

• U.S. Steel (X): Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) receives exclusive assignment of right to bid from United Steelworkers

M&A:

• Baxter (BAX): EU Commission clears acquisition of Baxter Pharmaceutical Solutions LLC of the US and Baxter Oncology GmbH of Germany by Advent and Warburg Pincus

• Tilray (TLRY) announces the acquisition of the remaining 57.5% equity ownership of Truss Beverage Co from Molson Coors Canada (TAP)

Syndicate:

• Gorilla Technology Group (GRRR) files $300 mln mixed shelf securities offering

• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) files 162,336,800 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

• Hagerty (HGTY) files 13,347,928 shares common stock issuable upon conversion of convertible preferred stock by selling shareholders

IPOs:

• Arm (SFTBY) has lined up numerous banks for IPO this year, according to Bloomberg

• Instacart planning IPO in September, according to Bloomberg

• Expected to Price:

• No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

• Gapping up:

• DLB +6.4%, CAAP +5.2%, ROST +5%, AMAT+3.2%, BARK +2.5%, BURL +1.8%, BLFY+1.6%, STAA +1.6%, MRNA +1.4%, APPF+1.4%, DE +1.4%, GOSS +1%, FIVE +0.9%, X+0.8%, LRCX +0.6%

• Gapping down:

• FTCH -39.7%, KEYS -10.7%, HIVE -7.9%, VIPS -6.9%, XPEV -6.1%, BILL -5.5%, NKLA-2.1%, RVMD -2%, RKLB -2%, HGTY -1.6%, MLNK -1.4%, BIG -1.1%, AGX -0.8%, GRRR-0.6%

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

• Upgrades

• Foot Locker (FL) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Williams Trading; tgt lowered to $23

• Strategic Education (STRA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $90

• Downgrades:

• Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

• Beazer Homes (BZH) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $32

• Hesai Group (HSAI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $12.40

• XPO, Inc. (XPO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt raised to $74

• Others:

• Acrivon Therapeutics (ACRV) initiated with a Buy at Jones Trading; tgt $26

• AlloVir (ALVR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $17

• Blue Bird (BLBD) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $26.50

• DocGo (DCGO) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $15

Econ Data:

• No economic data of note.

Earnings:

• Monday (Aug 14)

• Morning:  BTAI ERJ JKS MNDY ROIV

• Afternoon: DH HRTX NVTS

• Tuesday (Aug 15)

• Morning: CAH HD HUYA IHS ONON PSFE RSKD SE TME

• Afternoon:  A CAVA COHR DLO HRB JKHY MRCY LRN

• Wednesday (Aug 16)

• Morning:  EAT JD PFGC TGT TJX

• Afternoon:  AVT CSCO PYCR SQM STNE SNPS WOLF

• Thursday (Aug 17)

• Morning: WMT TPR SPTN NICE MSGS LITE DOLE BILI

• Afternoon:  AMAT BILL FTCH GLOB KEYS ROST

• Friday (Aug 18)  

• Morning:  BKE DE EL VIPS

• Afternoon: PANW

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng -2.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note. The People's Bank of China reportedly instructed state banks to intensify their interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the yuan. Evergrande Real Estate filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in a New York court, seeking to restructure more than $19 bln in offshore debt. Meanwhile, a district court in China froze Country Garden's stakes in two property companies for three years. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its overnight rate at 6.25%, as expected.

• In economic data:

• China's July FDI -4.0% YTD (expected 2.0%; last -2.7%)

• Japan's July National CPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.3% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 3.3%). July National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.6% (-3.2% for the week)

• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.1% (-5.9% for the week)

• China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0% (-1.8% for the week)

• India's Sensex: -0.3% (-0.6% for the week)

• South Korea's Kospi: -0.6% (-3.4% for the week)

• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH (-2.5%for the week)

---FX---

• USD/JPY: -0.3% to 145.43

• USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.3095

• USD/INR: -0.1% to 83.06

Europe: DAX -0.9%, FTSE -0.9%, CAC -1.0%

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week with China-related concerns weighing on sentiment. Eurozone's CPI was left unrevised in the final reading for July while the U.K. reported a bigger than expected contraction in retail sales. The European Central Bank is reportedly opposed to Italy's plan for imposing a 40% windfall profit tax on banks. ECB Chief Economist Lane said that he believes that the European economy will grow over the next couple of years.

• In economic data:

• Eurozone's July CPI -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 5.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.5%). July Core CPI -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 5.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.5%). June Construction Output -1.0% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.3%)

• U.K.'s July Retail Sales -1.2% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.6%); -3.2% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last -1.6%). July Core Retail Sales -1.4% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.7%); -3.4% yr/yr (expected -2.2%; last -1.6%)

• Swiss Q2 Industrial Production -0.8% yr/yr (last 4.2%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.9% (-2.6% week-to-date)

• Germany's DAX: -0.9% (-1.8% week-to-date)

• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.9% (-3.7% week-to-date)

• France's CAC 40: -1.0% (-3.1% week-to-date)

• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8% (-2.2% week-to-date)

• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6% (-2.2% week-to-date)

---FX---

• EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0861 

• GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.2703

• USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.8808