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18/01/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 41 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

The stock market looks poised for a higher open, but the positive bias is modest in scope as earnings season progresses. Market participants are also eyeing the December Producer Price Index that will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET

The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy against some expectations that the yield targets could be changed. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 102.08 with USD/JPY +0.7% to 129.08.

European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against earlier reports that the ECB is apt to reduce the size of its rate hikes at the policy meeting in March. He added that inflation is expected to return to target by 2025.

Treasury yields are noticeably lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.16% and the 10-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 3.47%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 27.9% with purchase applications rising 25% and refinancing applications increasing 34%. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:30 ET: December PPI (Briefing.comconsensus -0.1%; prior 0.3%), Core PPI (Briefing.comconsensus 0.1%; prior 0.4%), Retail Sales (Briefing.comconsensus -0.8%; prior -0.6%), and Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.comconsensus -0.5%; prior -0.2%)

  • 9:15 ET: December Industrial Production (Briefing.comconsensus -0.1%; prior -0.2%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.comconsensus 79.6%; prior 79.7%)

  • 10:00 ET: November Business Inventories (Briefing.comconsensus 0.4%; prior 0.3%) and January NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.comconsensus 31; prior 31)

  • 14:00 ET: January Fed Beige Book

  • 16:00 ET: November net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $67.80 bln)

In corporate news:

  • United Airlines (UAL 52.95, +1.75, +3.4%): beats by $0.33, beats on revs, remains confident in achieving pre-tax margin target of about 9% in 2023; guides 1Q23 EPS and revenue above consensus, guides FY23 EPS and revenue above consensus

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW 84.40, +0.91, +1.1%): misses by $0.47, reports revs in-line

  • PNC (PNC 155.00, -6.85, -4.2%): misses by $0.47, reports revs in-line

  • J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT 172.50, -3.79, -2.2%): misses by $0.52, misses on revs

  • Microsoft (MSFT 240.48, +0.49, +0.2%) plans to announce layoffs today, according to WSJ

  • Moderna (MRNA 205.23, +14.54, +7.6%): MRNA-1345, an investigational RSV vaccine, meets primary efficacy endpoints in Phase 3 trial in older adults

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +2.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH, India's Sensex: +0.6%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's December FDI 6.3% (last 9.9%) o Japan's November Core Machinery Orders -8.3% m/m (expected -0.9%; last 5.4%); -3.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 0.4%). November Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization -1.4% m/m (last 2.2%)

    • In news:

      • The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy against some expectations that the yield targets could be changed.

      • The next Bank of Japan governor is expected to be named in early February.

      • Taiwan's GDP contracted by 0.9% in Q4 as exports fell 8.6% yr/yr.

  • Major European indices trade in positive territory. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%, Germany's DAX: +0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH, France's CAC 40: +0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.0%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's December CPI -0.4% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.1%); 9.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.1%). December Core CPI 0.6% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 5.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.0%). November Construction Output -0.81% m/m (last 1.00%)

      • U.K.'s December CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 10.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.7%). December Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 6.3% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.3%). December RPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 0.6%) and Core RPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.5%)

      • Italy's November trade surplus EUR1.445 bln (expected deficit of EUR1.800 bln; last deficit of EUR2.057 bln)

    • In news:

      • European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against yesterday's report that the ECB is looking to reduce the size of its rate hikes at the policy meeting in March. He added that inflation is expected to return to target by 2025.

      • The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt is reportedly planning to present a slimmed-down budget with no tax cuts in mid-March.

      • The IMF's chief economist said that the fund's upcoming forecasts will be similar to the prior update.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +12 @ 4,003

  • DJIA Futures: +57 @ 33,968

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +44 @ 11,600

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE UNCH, CAC +0.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei +2.5%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.67 @ 82.12

  • Nat Gas -0.176 @ 3.41

  • Gold +10.15 @ 1920.05

  • Silver +0.304 @ 24.372

  • Copper +0.0842 @ 4.3072

 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Big 5 Sports (BGFV) guides Q4 earnings and revs below consensus (one estimate); comps fell -13.2%

  • Burning Rock Biotech (BNR) raises FY22 revs guidance

  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) misses by $0.04, misses on revs

  • Hancock Whitney (HWC) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs

  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) beats by $0.13, beats on revs

  • J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) misses by $0.52, misses on revs

  • Just Eat Takeaway (TKAYF) provides Q4 update and provides guidance

  • Pan Am Silver (PAAS) announces preliminary 2022 production results; consolidated silver production of 18.5 mln ounces met revised guidance range

  • Pearson Plc (PSO) provides 2022 Trading update; underlying sales rise 5% yr/yr

  • Petrobras (PBR) exceeds its oil and natural gas production target of 2.600 mln boed, producing 2.684 mln boed

  • Pinnacle Finl (PNFP) misses by $0.28, misses on revs; authorizes stock buyback

  • PNC (PNC) misses by $0.47, reports revs in-line

  • Progress Software (PRGS) beats by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY22 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus

  • United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.33, beats on revs, remains confident in achieving pre-tax margin target of about 9% in 2023; guides 1Q23 EPS and revenue above consensus, guides FY23 EPS and revenue above consensus

  • United Comm Banks (UCBI) misses by $0.08, misses on revs

  • XP (XP) reports 4Q22 KPIs

  • Yamana Gold (AUY) announces prelim Q4 and FY22 operating results; exceeds annual production target with solid performances across core asset portfolio

News:

  • Bank of Japan maintains existing yield curve control policy

  • China coronavirus deaths expected to reach 36,000 a day during Lunar New Year, according to Bloomberg

  • House Republicans are demanding spending cuts to increase debt ceiling, but Democrats and President Biden are refusing to consider that possibility. The standoff between the two sides could last months, according to Politico

  • ECB's Villeroy says that inflation battle is not over and rate guidance stands, according to Reuters

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen makes remarks at meeting with People's Republic of China Vice Premier Liu He

  • IEA says global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 mb/d in 2023, to a record 101.7 mb/d, with nearly half the gain from China following the lifting of its Covid restrictions

  • Albertson's (ALB): Washington Court will allow Albertson's to pay $4 bln dividend, according to Reuters

  • Amazon (AMZN) begins layoffs that could impact 18,000 people, according to Bloomberg

  • Apple (AAPL) will delay release of augmented reality glasses due to technical difficulties, according to Bloomberg

  • Apple (AAPL) suppliers receive clearance to expand in India, according to Bloomberg

  • Apple (AAPL): Brazil starts antitrust investigation of Apple, according to Valor

  • BeiGene (BGNE) Presents New Research from Tislelizumab Global Development Program at 2023 ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium

  • Blade Air Mobility (BLDE): RedBird Capital Partners takes 5% stake in BLDE

  • Coinbase Global (COIN) makes decision to halt operations in Japan and to conduct a complete review of our business in the country

  • Core Labs (CLB) to reorganize its corporate structure, including re-domestication of parent company to the U.S.

  • Disney (DIS): China cleared two Marvel films for screening, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Farfetch (FTCH) announces changes to leadership team

  • Glencore Intl plc (MMX) receives court approval for arrangement with Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp

  • Microsoft (MSFT) plans to announce layoffs today, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • MicroStrategy (MSTR) provides Brazil segment updates

  • Mitek Systems (MITK) retains Fuad Ahmad as its interim CFO

  • Moderna (MRNA): MRNA-1345, an investigational RSV vaccine, meets primary efficacy endpoints in Phase 3 trial in older adults

  • New Found Gold Corp. (NFGC) Discovers Multiple New Gold Zones Extending 1.5km South of Keats, Increases Appleton Fault Zone High-grade Gold Corridor to Over 4km in Strike Length

  • Olo Inc. (OLO) COO Nithya B Das to resign, effective March 31

  • Paratek Pharma (PRTK) announces inclusion of NUZYRA (omadacycline) in China's National Reimbursement Drug List

  • Permian Resources (PR) announces portfolio optimization transactions; not adjusting guidance as a result of these transactions

  • Privia Health (PRVA) enters Delaware with Beebe Healthcare; launches Ninth ACO

  • Qiagen (QGEN) launches EAZ2 Connect MDx for use in diagnostic laboratories, making the IVD platform for automated sample processing available for widescale use

  • Radian Group (RDN) completes a series of capital actions to enhance financial flexibility and approves new $300 mln share repurchase authorization

  • ServiceNow (NOW) unveils multi-year vision of its Partner Program to further partner growth and customer success

  • Teladoc (TDOC) announced a restructuring plan - to reduce workforce by 6%

  • Universal Display (OLED) announces an OLED evaluation agreement with Seiko Epson Corp whereby Universal Display will supply its phosphorescent OLED materials and tech to Epson for AR/VR display application; financial details not disclosed

M&A:

  • Bank of Montreal (BMO) receives regulatory approval to acquire Bank of the West

  • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) acquires AcuFocus, a privately held ophthalmic medical device firm; financial details not disclosed

  • Public Service (PEG) to sell its 25% equity stake in Ocean Wind 1 to Orsted

  • ROSS Acquisition Corp II (ROSS) and APRINOIA Therapeutics announce business combination agreement to create publicly listed company focused on neurodegenerative diseases

Syndicate:

  • Bluebirdbio (BLUE) commences offering of 20 mln shares of common stock

  • Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) files for $125 mln mixed securities shelf offering; also files for 16,842,363 share common units offering by selling unitholders

  • Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) prices offering of 9,615,384 shares of its common stock at $13.00 per share

  • Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) files mixed securities shelf offering

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • MRNA +6.7%, IBKR +3.3%, ACI +3.2%, BMO +3%, GH+2.9%, UAL +2.6%, LOB +2%, CSTL +1.8%, PSO+1.3%, USO +0.9%, UCBI +0.9%, AUY +0.7%, QGEN+0.6%

  • Gapping down:

    • PNFP -6.2%, PRGS -4.1%, HWC -3.8%, OLO -3.7%, BGFV -2.5%, TUSK -2.3%, COIN -1.7%, FULC -1.6%, KRP -1.4%, FULT -1.2%

 


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • GoDaddy (GDDY) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $103

    • Lightspeed (LSPD) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at SMBC Nikko; tgt $21

    • Marqeta (MQ) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at SMBC Nikko; tgt $8

    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $25

    • Natera (NTRA) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $58

  • Downgrades:

    • Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $210

    • BlackLine (BL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $63

    • Chegg (CHGG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham

    • Graphite Bio (GRPH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $3

    • IBM (IBM) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $148

    • Levi Strauss (LEVI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $17

    • Mercantile Bank (MBWM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

    • YETI Holdings (YETI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; tgt $47

  • Others:

    • Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $310

    • Applied Materials (AMAT) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $132

    • ICHOR Corporation (ICHR) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $37

    • KLA Corporation (KLAC) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $505

    • Mobileye Global (MBLY) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $48

    • Zscaler (ZS) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; tgt $115

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

    • 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Jan 14 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.2%)

    • 08:30 ET: PPI for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -0.1%; Prior 0.3%)

    • 08:30 ET: Core PPI for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 0.1%; Prior 0.4%)

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -0.8%; Prior -0.6%)

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -0.5%; Prior -0.2%)

    • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -0.1%; Prior -0.2%)

    • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 79.6%; Prior 79.7%)

    • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories Nov (Briefing.comConsensus 0.4%; Prior 0.3%)

    • 10:00 ET: NAHB Housing Market Index for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus 31; Prior 31)

    • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior NA)

    • 16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior $67.8B)

  • Earnings:

    • Monday (Jan 16)

      • Morning:  UMC

    • Tuesday (Jan 17)

      • Morning: CFG GS MS EDU SBNY SI

      • Afternoon:  FULT HWC IBKR PNFP PRGS UAL UCBI

    • Wednesday (Jan 18)

      • Morning:  SCHW PNC PLD

      • Afternoon:  AA DFS FHN FUL KMI TCBI WTFC

    • Thursday (Jan 19)

      • Morning: BANC BKU CMA CBSH FAST FITB HOMB KEY MTB NTRS PG SNV TFC WNS

      • Afternoon:  OZK CNXC FFIN NFLX PPG SIVB

    • Friday (Jan 20) 

      • Morning:  ALLY ERIC HBAN RF SLB STT

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +2.5%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai Composite UNCH

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note. The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy against some expectations that the yield targets could be changed. The next Bank of Japan governor is expected to be named in early February. Taiwan's GDP contracted by 0.9% in Q4 as exports fell 8.6% yr/yr.

  • In economic data:

    • China's December FDI 6.3% (last 9.9%) o Japan's November Core Machinery Orders -8.3% m/m (expected -0.9%; last 5.4%); -3.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 0.4%). November Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization -1.4% m/m (last 2.2%)

    • New Zealand's December Electronic Card Retail Sales -2.5% m/m (last 0.3%); 4.8% yr/yr (last 7.1%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +2.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH

  • India's Sensex: +0.6%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.8% to 129.12

  • USD/CNH: -0.2% to 6.7514

  • USD/INR: -0.4% to 81.24

 

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE UNCH, CAC +0.3%

Major European indices trade in positive territory. European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against yesterday's report that the ECB is looking to reduce the size of its rate hikes at the policy meeting in March. He added that inflation is expected to return to target by 2025. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt is reportedly planning to present a slimmed-down budget with no tax cuts in mid-March. The IMF's chief economist said that the fund's upcoming forecasts will be similar to the prior update.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's December CPI -0.4% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.1%); 9.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.1%). December Core CPI 0.6% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 5.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.0%). November Construction Output -0.81% m/m (last 1.00%)

    • U.K.'s December CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 10.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.7%). December Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 6.3% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.3%). December RPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 0.6%) and Core RPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.5%)

    • Italy's November trade surplus EUR1.445 bln (expected deficit of EUR1.800 bln; last deficit of EUR2.057 bln)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH

  • France's CAC 40: +0.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +1.0%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.4% to 1.0830

  • GBP/USD: +0.6% to 1.2364

  • USD/CHF: -0.8% to 0.9142


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