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18/01/22 Briefing

The equity futures market is struggling to begin the shortened trading week, as inflation concerns continue to drive Treasury yields higher. The S&P 500 futures trade 34 points, or 0.7%, below fair value while the tech-heavy Nasdaq futures underperform and trade 1.6% below fair value.

The 10-yr Treasury note yield is currently up two basis points to 1.81% after trading near 1.85% overnight, while the 2-yr yield trades higher by six basis points to 1.02% on increased expectations for the Fed to be more aggressive in tightening policy. The market is now expecting the Fed to hike rates more than three times this year.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged while raising its inflation forecast due to rising commodity prices. Interestingly, the People's Bank of China

lowered its key benchmark rate by 10 basis points, which was its first cut since April 2020.

Looking at commodity prices, WTI crude futures are up another 1.4%, or $1.18, to $85.00 per barrel amid rising geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 95.38.

Q4 bank earnings continue to roll in, but like last Friday, the results haven't impressed the market and shares have been pressured by the curve-flattening activity in the Treasury market. Goldman Sachs (GS 370.00, -10.94, -2.9%), in particular, missed EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue.

Separately, investors will receive the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January (Briefing.comconsensus 25.0) at 8:30 a.m. ET, the NAHB Housing Market Index for January (Briefing.comconsensus 84) at 10:00 a.m. ET, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows for November at 4:00 p.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 370.00, -10.94): -2.9% after missing EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue.

  • PNC (PNC 220.96, -1.24): -0.6% despite beating EPS estimates and guiding FY22 revenue above consensus.

  • Truist (TFC 67.50, +0.09): +0.1% after beating EPS estimates.

  • BNY Mellon (BK 62.99, -0.61): -1.0% after reporting in-line EPS and revenue results for the fourth quarter.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.4% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.8% India's Sensex: -0.9% South Korea's Kospi: -0.9% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Industrial Production 7.0% m/m (expected 7.2%; last 1.8%) and November Capacity Utilization 8.0% m/m (last 6.2%)

  • Hong Kong's December Unemployment Rate 3.9% (last 4.1%)

  • New Zealand's Q4 NZIER Business Confidence -28% (last -11%)


  • In news:

  • The People's Bank of China lowered its medium-term lending facility rate by ten basis points to 2.85% and it may also lower its loan prime rate on Thursday.

  • Tokyo and nine other prefectures have reportedly requested new coronavirus measures from the Japanese government.

  • The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy stance, keeping its interest on excess reserves at -0.10%, as expected. The central bank raised its current CPI assessment for the first time since 2014.

  • North Korea conducted another missile test.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -1.1% Germany's DAX: -1.1% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5% France's CAC 40: -1.1% Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment 49.4 (expected 29.2; last 26.8)

  • Germany's January ZEW Economic Sentiment 51.7 (expected 32.0; last 29.9) and ZEW Current Conditions -10.2 (expected -8.5; last -7.4)

  • U.K.'s November three-month employment change 60,000 (expected 125,000; last 149,000). November Average Earnings Index + Bonus 4.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.9%). November Unemployment Rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%; last 4.2%)

  • Italy's November trade surplus EUR4.163 bln (expected surplus of EUR4.230 bln; last surplus of EUR3.891 bln)

  • Swiss December PPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); 5.1% yr/yr (last 5.8%)


  • In news:

  • Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment survey beat estimates due to optimism that the current headwinds will be temporary.

  • The British government is looking at measures to lower heating costs for consumers.

  • European Economic Commissioner Gentiloni repeated the view that drivers of inflation will "gradually reduce."

  • The Italian parliament will begin voting for the country's next president on Monday.

  • Germany sold 5-yr debt and Spain sold 3-month debt to good demand.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -43 @ 4,620

  • DJIA Futures: -300 @ 35,654

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -237 @ 15,373

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.1%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -1.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.8%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.00 @ 84.30

  • Nat Gas +0.039 @ 4.303

  • Gold -1 @ 1812

  • Silver +0.090 @ 23.008

  • Copper -0.0443 @ 4.4062

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):

  • Alamos (AGI) reports FY21 production in-line with guidance

  • Ashland (ASH) sees Q1 EPS/revs below consensus; reaffirms FY22 guidance

  • Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) sees Q4 revs roughly in line with estimates

  • BNY Mellon (BK) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Centerra Gold (CGAU) Reports 2021 Gold Production and Issues 2022 Guidance

  • Daimler AG Truck (DDAIF) increased group sales in 2021

  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) Provides 2022 Production and Cost Guidance and Outlines Improved Five-Year Outlook

  • European Wax Center (EWCZ) CFO to step down; reaffirms FY21 revs outlook; sees Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted net income slightly above previous guidance ranges

  • Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) reports 2021 full year record production of 305,859 gold equivalent ounces and issues 2022 annual guidance

  • Goldman Sachs (GS) misses by $1.07, beats on revs

  • Hain Celestial (HAIN) appoints Chris Bellairs as CFO; sees H1 results below prior guidance

  • Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) reports Q4 production increased 3% yr/yr

  • Largo Resources (LGO) reports FY21 Annual V2O5 sales increased 11%

  • PNC (PNC) beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line, provides Q1 and FY22guidance

  • RADA Electronic Industries (RADA) sees FY21and FY22in-line with consensus

  • Select Medical (SEM) sees FY21revs above consensus

  • Signature Bank (SBNY) beats by $0.38

  • Silvergate Capital (SI) misses by $0.07

  • Truist (TFC) beats by $0.13

  • Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) reports FY21production in-line with guidance

  • Xeris Biopharma (XERS) reaffirms FY21outlook; provides business update


  • General News:

  • Russian officials hint that if US and allies do not meet demands, such as removing nuclear weapons from Europe, it could put nuclear weapons close to US. However, US officials see little evidence Russia is preparing to do this despite these threats, according to the New York Times

  • China orders new lockdowns, which could impact supply chains, according to the New York Times

  • US surgeon general Dr. Vivek Murthy says Omicron cases have not peaked in US, according to the New York Times

  • Airline CEOs believe 5G could ground planes, according to Reuters

  • More cruise lines are canceling trips amid Omicron, according to the New York Times

  • Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center has identified evidence of a destructive malware operation targeting multiple organizations in Ukraine

  • UAE says they will retaliate against Houthi militants for attack, according to CNBC

  • Criminals in Los Angeles are looting freight trains filled with packages from UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), and Amazon (AMZN), according to CNN

  • 23andMe (ME) announces extension of GSK (GSK) collaboration and update on joint immuno-oncology program

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) awarded $310 mln Army contract

  • Activision (ATVI) fires several employees over workplace misconduct, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • ADMA Biologics (ADMA) has received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its fourth ADMA BioCenters plasma collection facility located in Goose Creek, South Carolina

  • Amazon (AMZN) stops ban on Visa (V) UK cards, according to Reuters

  • Antares Pharma (ATRS) receives FDA fast track designation for ATRS-1902 for adrenal crisis rescue

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) receives Priority Review from FDA for ENHERTU

  • Biodesix (BDSX) announces the national launch of its new GeneStrat NGS

  • Bluebirdbio (BLUE) provides FDA update on review timelines for Betibeglogene Autotemcel

  • BP (BP) and Oman form strategic partnership to progress significant renewable energy and hydrogen development

  • BP (BP) and EnBW have been awarded a lease option off the east coast of Scotland to develop a major offshore wind project - to be known as Morven

  • Credit Suisse (CS) appoints Axel P. Lehmann as new Chairman; Antnio Horta-Osrio has resigned

  • Continental Resources (CLR) President/COO Jack Stark to retire

  • Corporacin Amrica (CAAP) Airports reports December traffic increased 114.2% yr/yr

  • Danaos (DAC) enters new charter agreements for 11 vessels

  • Eagle Pharma (EGRX) announced the commercial availability of its recently approved product, vasopressin, an A-rated generic alternative to Vasostrict, with 180 days of marketing exclusivity

  • Ericsson (ERIC) files lawsuit against Apple (AAPL) over 5G patents, according to Reuters

  • Evelo Biosciences (EVLO) Presents Data on EDP1815 Mechanism of Action and Supporting Ongoing Clinical Development for Inflammatory Diseases

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) announces ambition for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

  • Ford Motor (F) and Stripe agreement to accelerate easy payment experiences for customers, dealers

  • Genius Sports (GENI) secured a major expansion of its long-term partnership with bet365

  • Humanigen (HGEN) announces peer-reviewed publication in The Journal of Medical Economics demonstrating the clinical and economic benefits of lenzilumab

  • Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) announces retirement of Patrick Cescau as Chair; To be succeeded by Deanna Oppenheimer

  • Ionis' (IONS) partner to evaluate tominersen for Huntington's disease in new Phase 2 trial

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports December card metrics

  • Moderna (MRNA) expects data on Omicron vaccine by March, according to Reuters

  • Molecular Partners (MOLN) and Novartis (NVS) finalize license agreement for Ensovibep for COVID-19

  • Netflix (NFLX) confirms price increases; basic increases to $9.99 from $8.99; premium increases to $19.99 from $17.99

  • Nevro (NVRO) announced the results from data presentations supporting the use of 10 kHz spinal cord stimulation (SCS) therapy for patients with chronic pain

  • Norwegian Cruise Line's (NCLH) brands opt into CDC's COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships Operating in U.S. Waters

  • Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) announces settlement of securities lawsuit in Denmark

  • NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) announces expansion of ZYESAMI US expanded access and right to try programs for patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure who have exhausted all approved treatments

  • Pfizer (PFE): Health Canada authorizes PAXLOVIDTM for patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 at high risk of developing serious disease

  • Pfizer (PFE): Fourth dose of Pfizer vaccine did not help prevent infection against Omicron, according to Bloomberg

  • Rio Tinto (RIO) reports FY21 Pilbara iron ore production declined 4% yr/yr

  • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) awarded $340 mln Army contract

  • Shanda Interactive (SNDA) announces december 2021 occupancy

  • Soluna Holdings (SLNH) announces signing of master equipment finance agreement, purchases additional equipment from Bitmain

  • Starbucks (SBUX): Some Starbucks and Chipotle (CMG) stores are limiting seating and hours due to Omicron staffing issues, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Target (TGT) CEO expects consumers will make fewer trips to stores due to inflation, according to Bloomberg

  • Toyota (TM) production will likely be below target, according to Nikkei

  • United Therapeutics (UTHR): FDA has acknowledged acceptance of the NDA for review as a class 1 response with a user fee goal date in February 2022

  • Vail Resorts (MTN) is experiencing worker shortages, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Vale S.A. (VALE) updates on operations and structures in Minas Gerais

  • Wal Mart (WMT) aiming to create cryptocurrency and NFTs, according to Bloomberg


  • M&A:

  • Citrix (CTXS) is receiving buyout interest from private equity, according to Bloomberg

  • DaVita (DVA) announced its acquisition of transplant software company MedSleuth; no financial terms disclosed

  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) confirms that it has received three unsolicited, conditional and non-binding proposals from Unilever (UN, UL) to acquire the GSK Consumer Healthcare business

  • Houghton Mifflin (HMHC) considering sale, according to Bloomberg

  • NeoGames (NGMS) to commence an offer to acquire Aspire Global for ~$480 mln

  • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) to acquire Pack Health in an all-cash equity transaction; Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed

  • Schrodinger (SDGR) announced the acquisition of XTAL BioStructures, Inc.

  • Sema4 Holdings Corp (SMFR) to acquire GeneDx from Opko Health (OPK) for upfront payment of $150 mln plus 80 mln share of stock; also enters private placement, issues FY22 standalone rev guidance

  • Siemens AG Mobility (SIEGY) signed an agreement to divest Yunex Traffic, the international road traffic business, to Atlantia S.p.A.

  • StarTek (SRT) forms Special Committee in response to preliminary non-binding acquisition proposal by CSP Management

  • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) acquires precious metals stream from Adventus Mining's Curipamba Project


  • Syndicate:

  • No syndicate news of note


  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • Four Springs Capital Trust (NYSE: FSPR): The REIT that's focused on acquiring, owning and actively managing a diversified portfolio of single-tenant, income-producing commercial properties is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $13-$15.

  • Rhodium Enterprises (Nasdaq: RHDN): The industrial-scale digital asset technology company utilizing its proprietary technologies to mine bitcoin is expected to price its 7.7 M share IPO between $12-$14.

  • Verdant Earth Technologies (Nasdaq: VDNT): The development stage green energy company is expected to price its 6.3 M share IPO between $7-$9.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • GENI +6.3%, SBNY +4%, ANGI +2.8%, CTXS +2.8%, RADA +2.4%, IONS +1.6%, RDS.A +1.5%, TRQ +1.5%, AZN +1.4%, USO +1.1%, BP +1.1%, OIH +1%, XLE+0.9%, KL +0.7%, SDGR +0.7%


  • Gapping down:

  • MOLN -15.7%, SI -8.4%, EVLO -3.9%, CS -3.3%, LGO-3.1%, FSM -2.7%, DAL -2.7%, AGI -2.1%, RCL-1.9%, LUV -1.8%, RIO -1.5%, UAL -1.5%, NCLH-1.4%, AAL -1.4%, CCL -1.3%, JBLU -0.7%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AvalonBay (AVB) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt raised to $263

  • Brixmor Property (BRX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $29

  • Quaker Chemical (KWR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $265

  • Six Flags (SIX) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $54

  • Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair

  • Sunstone Hotel (SHO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $14

  • Under Armour (UAA) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $25

  • Vale S.A. (VALE) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $17

  • VTEX (VTEX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $16

  • Zscaler (ZS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $325


  • Downgrades:

  • Airbnb (ABNB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gordon Haskett

  • Altice USA (ATUS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $14

  • Brandywine Realty (BDN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt $15

  • Charter Comm (CHTR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas

  • Choice Hotels (CHH) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $136

  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $335

  • Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $19


  • Others:

  • AutoNation (AN) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $135

  • Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Columbia Sportswear (COLM) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Crocs (CROX) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $445

  • Foot Locker (FL) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $59

  • Genesco (GCO) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $72

  • Renalytix (RNLX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $30

  • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $53

  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $16

  • Tilly's (TLYS) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $18

  • Under Armour (UAA) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • V.F. Corp (VFC) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • VTEX (VTEX) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $13

  • Westlake Chemical (WLK) resumed with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $125

  • Wolverine (WWW) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Zumiez (ZUMZ) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Empire State Manufacturing for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus 25.0; Prior 31.9)

  • 10:00 ET: NAHB Housing Market Index for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus 84; Prior 84)

  • 16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior $7.1B)


  • Earnings:

  • Tuesday (Jan 18)

  • Morning: BK SCHW FMBI GS ONB PNC SBNY SI TFC

  • Afternoon: FULT HWC IBKR JBHT PNFP PRGS UCBI


  • Wednesday (Jan 19)

  • Morning: ASML BAC BOKF CFG CMA CBSH FAST MS PG PLD STT USB UNH

  • Afternoon: AA COLB DFS FNB FUL KMI STL UMPQ UAL WTFC


  • Thursday (Jan 20)

  • Morning: AAL BKR BKU FITB FHN HOMB KEY MTB NTRS PPBI RF SASR SNV TRV UNP WBS WNS

  • During Market Hours: WABC

  • Afternoon: ASB OZK CSX ISRG LLNW NBHC NFLX PBCT PPG SIVB TCBI


  • Friday (Jan 21)

  • Morning: ALLY FHB HBAN INFO SLB




Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.8%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note. The People's Bank of China lowered its medium-term lending facility rate by ten basis points to 2.85% and it may also lower its loan prime rate on Thursday. Tokyo and nine other prefectures have reportedly requested new coronavirus measures from the Japanese government. The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy stance, keeping its interest on excess reserves at -0.10%, as expected. The central bank raised its current CPI assessment for the first time since 2014. North Korea conducted another missile test.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's November Industrial Production 7.0% m/m (expected 7.2%; last 1.8%) and November Capacity Utilization 8.0% m/m (last 6.2%)

  • Hong Kong's December Unemployment Rate 3.9% (last 4.1%)

  • New Zealand's Q4 NZIER Business Confidence -28% (last -11%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.8%

  • India's Sensex: -0.9%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.9%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 114.66

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.3558

  • USD/INR: +0.4% to 74.57

Europe: DAX -1.1%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -1.1%

Major European indices trade in the red. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment survey beat estimates due to optimism that the current headwinds will be temporary. The British government is looking at measures to lower heating costs for consumers. European Economic Commissioner Gentiloni repeated the view that drivers of inflation will "gradually reduce." The Italian parliament will begin voting for the country's next president on Monday. Germany sold 5-yr debt and Spain sold 3-month debt to good demand.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment 49.4 (expected 29.2; last 26.8)

  • Germany's January ZEW Economic Sentiment 51.7 (expected 32.0; last 29.9) and ZEW Current Conditions -10.2 (expected -8.5; last -7.4)

  • U.K.'s November three-month employment change 60,000 (expected 125,000; last 149,000). November Average Earnings Index + Bonus 4.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.9%). November Unemployment Rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%; last 4.2%)

  • Italy's November trade surplus EUR4.163 bln (expected surplus of EUR4.230 bln; last surplus of EUR3.891 bln)

  • Swiss December PPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); 5.1% yr/yr (last 5.8%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.1%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: -1.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.1388

  • GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.3595

  • USD/CHF: +0.2% to 0.9150

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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures