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17/03/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 119 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

The equity futures market has been mixed this morning. Investors are hesitant after yesterday's rally due to weakness again in bank stocks, particularly First Republic Bank (FRC), acting as a headwind.

Reports indicate that banks borrowed $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program and a record $153 billion from the Fed's discount window for the week ending March 15.

In other central bank news, The People's Bank of China announced a 25-bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, which will be effective March 27.

Treasury yields are fading this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 3.50% and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.11%.

Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 9:15 a.m. ET: February Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.0%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 78.5%; prior 78.3%)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: February Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%; prior -0.3%) and March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (Briefing.com consensus 67.2; prior 67.0)

In corporate news:

  • FedEx (FDX 227.92, +23.87, +11.7%): beats by $0.67, misses on revs; raises FY23 EPS guidance

  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT 123.98, -25.69, -17.2%): moving lower after FDA determines that an advisory committee meeting will be held for SRP-9001

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 259.96, +4.55, +1.8%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • Bumble (BMBL 19.55, +0.18, +0.9%): Citi initiated coverage with a Buy

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 29.60, -4.67, -13.6%): confirms it will receive $30 bln; provides cash position update; will suspend dividend

  • U.S. Steel (X 25.35, +0.83, +3.4%): guides Q1 EPS above consensus; expects trends to continue into Q2

  • Bidu (BIDU 144.50, +6.35, +4.6%): wins China Capital City's first-ever permit to provide fully driverless ride-hailing service

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.2% (-2.9% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% (+1.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% (+0.6% for the week), India's Sensex: +0.6% (-1.9% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +0.8% (+0.1% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5% (-2.2% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • China's February FDI 6.1% YTD (last 14.5%)

  • Japan's February Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.9% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.4%)

  • Singapore's February trade surplus SGD6.71 bln (last surplus of SGD6.28 bln). February non-oil exports -8.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.9%); -15.6% yr/yr (expected -16.0%; last -25.0%)


  • In news:

  • The People's Bank of China announced a 25-bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, which will be effective March 27.

  • China Securities Journal speculated that the Chinese economy needs more fiscal and monetary policy support.

  • Outgoing Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that he believes the central bank still has room to lower rates below -0.10%.

  • Japan's trade minister said that South Korea has not been granted "white nation status" and that export controls remain in place.



  • Major European indices trade in positive territory. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (-2.4% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.1% (-3.0% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (-4.2% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.2% (-2.9% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH (-5.0% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (-4.5% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's February CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last -0.2%); 8.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 8.6%). February Core CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last -0.8%); 5.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.3%). Q4 Labor Cost Index 5.7% yr/yr (last 3.7%)

  • Italy's January trade deficit EUR2.81 bln (last deficit of EUR2.64 bln)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Kazimir said that the ECB is not at the finish line yet and that rate hikes should continue despite recent events while policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that fighting inflation remains the priority.

  • Credit Suisse and UBS reportedly opposed a forced merger.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -9 @ 3,951

  • DJIA Futures: -119 @ 32,128

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +10 @ 12,591

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC -0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng +1.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.48 @ 68.83

  • Nat Gas -0.080 @ 2.434

  • Gold +15.95 @ 1938.95

  • Silver +0.305 @ 21.997

  • Copper +0.0705 @ 3.935


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Algonquin Power & Utilities ( AQN 0.39% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • BioLife Solutions ( BLFS 6.98% ) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Blend Labs ( BLND 3.92% ) misses by $0.05, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus

  • FedEx ( FDX 4.48% ) beats by $0.67, misses on revs; raises FY23 EPS guidance

  • Groupon ( GRPN 3.92% ) misses by $0.02 (two ests), misses on revs; withdraws FY23 free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA guidance due to macroeconomic environment and being amid its turnaround strategy

  • Hallador Energy ( HNRG 7.00% ) beats on top and bottom lines

  • PLBY Group ( PLBY 2.49% ) misses by $0.13 (single estimate), misses on revs

  • Purple Innovation ( PRPL 1.54% ) misses by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Traeger ( COOK 7.10% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • U.S. Steel ( X 0.33% ) guides Q1 EPS above consensus; expects trends to continue into Q2

News:

  • Chinese President Xi will visit Russia next week to meet with Russian President Putin, according to the New York Times

  • French government increased retirement age to 64 despite widespread protests, according to CNN

  • Banks borrowed $11.9 billion from the new Bank Term Funding Program as of the close on March 15 - CNBC

  • Germany aiming to block EU ban on new combustion engines, according to Financial Times

  • U.S. 'AA+/A-1+' sovereign ratings affirmed at S&P last night; outlook remains stable

  • Alcoa ( AA 2.46% ) closing its Intalco aluminum smelter in Washington, been idle since 2020; preparing the site for new economic development

  • Amgen ( AMGN 0.14% ) to eliminate 450 jobs, according to Reuters

  • Baidu ( BIDU 3.80% ) wins China Capital City's first-ever permit to provide fully driverless ride-hailing service

  • Baidu ( BIDU 3.80% ) ChatGPT software had mixed reviews, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • BridgeBio Pharma ( BBIO 3.09% ) announces that preliminary data on the Company's muscle tissue-based bioassay measuring glycosylated ?DG in LGMD2I patients will be featured in an oral presentation and posters at the MDA 2023 Annual Meeting

  • Clearwater Paper ( CLW 0.30% ) CFO Michael Murphy to depart; will continue to serve through Q2

  • Coinbase Global ( COIN 5.13% ) investigating elevated error rates across its website; states funds are safe per Coinbase Support Twitter account

  • Credit Suisse ( CS 0.00% ) liquidity measures did not fall from March 8-14, according to Reuters

  • Diebold Nixdorf ( DBD 2.13% ): 10-K filing saying co will need additional capital to sustain operating needs

  • Eni S.p.A. ( E 0.19% ) proposes new buyback program

  • Eni S.p.A. ( E 0.19% ) announces a new discovery offshore Mexico

  • First Republic Bank ( FRC 9.92% ) confirms it will receive $30 bln; provides cash position update; will suspend dividend

  • Hooker Furniture ( HOFT 1.68% ) approved a plan to exit the Accentrics Home; expects to record an approximate $34 million non-cash charge

  • KeyCorp ( KEY 4.51% ) appoints Clark H. I. Khayat as CFO, effective immediately, succeeding Donald Kimble who retired today; will stay on as Vice Chairman and Chief Administrative Officer until May 1, 2023

  • Lifecore Biomedical ( LFCR 2.00% ) intends to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the company or potential debt or equity financing transactions

  • Merck ( MRK 0.27% ) Provides Update from Open-Label Arm of Phase 2 KeyVibe-002 Trial Evaluating MK-7684A, a Coformulation of Vibostolimab and Pembrolizumab, in Previously Treated Patients with Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

  • Meta Platforms ( META 3.63% ): Dan Niles tweets that his firm trimmed some META, but plans to buy it back

  • Nexa Resources ( NEXA 0.00% ): Production at the Cerro Lindo mine is suspended due to unusual heavy rainfall

  • NextEra Energy ( NEE 0.86% ) Chairman/CEO entered into a pre-arranged stock trading plan to purchase shares of NEE common stock

  • Nikola Corporation's ( NKLA 6.71% ) move to transition battery manufacturing from California to Arizona expected to be completed by April 2023, months ahead of schedule

  • Novartis' ( NVS 0.83% ) Tafinlar + Mekinist approved by FDA for pediatric patients with BRAF V600E low-grade glioma

  • PennyMac ( PFSI 2.78% ) and PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) do not currently maintain any deposits or have any financing arrangements with Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), Bank or Signature Bank (SBNY)

  • Pfizer ( PFE 0.22% ) and Astellas (ALPMY) report Phase 3 study showing XTANDI (enzalutamide) plus Leuprolide significantly improves metastasis-free survival in men with non-metastatic prostate cancer

  • PLBY Group ( PLBY 2.49% ) CFO Lance Barton will depart by June 30

  • Range Resources ( RRC 4.28% ) announces that CEO Jeff Ventura plans to retire from the Company effective June 2, 2023 and will not seek reelection to the Board

  • Repsol SA ( REPYY ) abandons idea of expanding a LNG terminal on Canada's east coast, according to Bloomberg

  • Revolve Group ( RVLV 0.92% ) partners with Jennifer Lopez to launch an exclusive line of footwear

  • Samsara ( IOT 1.42% ) partners with UK-based fleet safety provider Motormax to provide new levels of fleet vehicle safety

  • Sanofi ( SNY 1.16% ) cuts U.S. list price of Lantus by 78% and caps out-of-pocket costs at $35 for all patients with commercial insurance

  • Sarepta Therapeutics ( SRPT 2.89% ): FDA determines that an advisory committee meeting will be held for SRP-9001

  • Schwab ( SCHW 2.80% ) clients are shifting to government portfolios, according to Bloomberg

  • Shoe Carnival ( SCVL 0.45% ) announces appointment of Erik Gast as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective April 24, 2023

  • STAG Industrial ( STAG 0.31% ) Executive Chairman Ben Butcher to retire at the end of current one-year term on June 30, 2023; Larry T Guillemette appointed as independent Chairman, effective July 1

  • Sun Life ( SLF 0.74% ) partners with Goodpath to provide disability members access to treatment for back or neck musculoskeletal conditions, or long COVID-19

  • SVB Financial Group ( SIVB 62.76% ): Citadel over the weekend offered to buy Circle Internet deposits, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Thermo Fisher ( TMO 2.65% ) appoints Cory Stevenson as Executive Chairman; joined Board in 2022, previously served as President of BioProduction division at TMO

  • TikTok's discussions with potential buyers heating up, according to the New York Times

  • TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew believes sale will not protect US data, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • TikTok sale will likely be rejected by China, according to The Information

  • Tilray Brands ( TLRY 9.32% ) Stockholders Approve Charter Amendment to Enhance Corporate Governance and Support Strategic Growth Plan

  • Tupperware ( TUP 1.20% ) to restate financial results; expects to delay filing of its 10-K; determines that material weaknesses exist in its internal control over financial reporting

  • Wolverine ( WWW 1.20% ) announces that its Chairman and retired CEO, Blake Krueger, will be retiring from the Board on May 4, 2023. Tom Long, the Board's Lead Independent Director, has been appointed to serve as Chairman

  • Zevra Therapeutics ( ZVRA 3.52% ) announces collaboration with RARE-X and the Sleep Consortium as founding member of new Sleep Data Initiative

M&A:

  • ACI Worldwide ( ACIW 13.57% ): Motive Partners in talks to buy ACIW, according to Bloomberg

  • Aerojet Rocketdyne ( AJRD 0.66% ) shareholders approve previously proposed acquisition by L3Harris Technologies (LHX)

  • Laboratory Corp ( LH 0.05% ) acquires assets of Enzo Biochem's (ENZ) Clinical Laboratory division; financial details not disclosed

  • UnitedHealth ( UNH 1.42% ): UK CMA issues phase one decision on UNH proposed acquisition of EMIS Group Plc; referred for a phase 2 investigation

Syndicate:

  • Amyris ( AMRS 10.92% ) files for $1 bln mixed securities shelf offering

  • DMC Global ( BOOM 2.96% ) files $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Fusion Pharmaceuticals ( FUSN 1.67% ) files for 17,648,596 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Sight Sciences ( SGHT 0.71% ) files $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Veru ( VERU 1.09% ) files $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • HNRG +13.9%, FDX +11.4%, LFCR +7%, MARA +5.9%, BIDU +5.3%, X +4.8%, COIN +4%, UPS +3.6%, ORLA +2.8%, ACIW +2.6%, E +2.3%, CLF +1.6%, STLD +1.6%, AA +1.4%, MED +1.4%, RVLV +1.3%, STAG +1%


  • Gapping down:

  • DBD -24.3%, SRPT -20.7%, RBBN -8.7%, AMRS -6.1%, BLND -5.4%, GRPN -5.3%, PRPL -4.5%, FRC -4.3%, PLBY -4.1%, PACW -3.1%, AROW -2.5%, CUTR -2.3%, HEAR -2%, META -1.4%, SCVL -1.3%, TUP -1.2%, CBAY -1.1%, BOOM -0.9%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list:

  • Upgrades

  • American Airlines (AAL) upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research

  • Chubb (CB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $239


  • Downgrades:

  • Bread Financial (BFH) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $35

  • CareMax (CMAX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $4

  • Cerevel Therapeutics (CERE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $29


  • Others:

  • Atour Lifestyle Hldgs. Ltd. (ATAT) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $28.30

  • Bumble Inc. (BMBL) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $24

  • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) initiated with an Outperform at SVB Securities; tgt $6

  • Churchill Downs (CHDN) initiated with a Buy at Truist; tgt $300


  • Econ Data:

  • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 0.5%; Prior 0.0%)

  • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 78.5%; Prior 78.3%)

  • 10:00 ET: Leading Indicators for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus -0.4%; Prior -0.3%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim for March (Briefing.com Consensus 67.2; Prior 67.0)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 13)

  • Afternoon: GTLB


  • Tuesday (Mar 14)

  • Morning: CAL IHS SGHC

  • Afternoon: CTOS GES LEN S SMAR STNE


  • Wednesday (Mar 15)

  • Morning: EBIX GDS OTLY PACK

  • Afternoon: ADBE AMRS ARRY CDRE FIVE FNV PD TPC PATH ZTO


  • Thursday (Mar 16)

  • Morning: ASO DBI DG GIII MOMO HNST JBL BEKE SIG TITN WSM

  • Afternoon: BLND FDX PLBY PRPL COOK


  • Friday (Mar 17)

  • Morning: AQN BLDP



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng +1.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. The People's Bank of China announced a 25-bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, which will be effective March 27. China Securities Journal speculated that the Chinese economy needs more fiscal and monetary policy support. Outgoing Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that he believes the central bank still has room to lower rates below -0.10%. Japan's trade minister said that South Korea has not been granted "white nation status" and that export controls remain in place.

  • In economic data:

  • China's February FDI 6.1% YTD (last 14.5%)

  • Japan's February Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.9% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.4%)

  • Singapore's February trade surplus SGD6.71 bln (last surplus of SGD6.28 bln). February non-oil exports -8.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.9%); -15.6% yr/yr (expected -16.0%; last -25.0%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.2% (-2.9% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% (+1.0% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% (+0.6% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +0.6% (-1.9% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.8% (+0.1% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5% (-2.2% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.3% to 133.11

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.8915

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 82.53

Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC -0.2%

Major European indices trade in positive territory. European Central Bank policymaker Kazimir said that the ECB is not at the finish line yet and that rate hikes should continue despite recent events while policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that fighting inflation remains the priority. Credit Suisse and UBS reportedly opposed a forced merger.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's February CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last -0.2%); 8.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 8.6%). February Core CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last -0.8%); 5.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.3%). Q4 Labor Cost Index 5.7% yr/yr (last 3.7%)

  • Italy's January trade deficit EUR2.81 bln (last deficit of EUR2.64 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (-2.4% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: -0.1% (-3.0% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (-4.2% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.2% (-2.9% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH (-5.0% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2% (-4.5% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0630

  • GBP/USD: +0.2% to 1.2135

  • USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.9267


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