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16/11/22 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are flat and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value.

Equity futures are mixed this morning and little changed from the flat line. Target (TGT), down double-digits in premarket action, disappointed with its earnings and outlook, which is likely weighing on sentiment.

Poland believes that the missile that landed yesterday was fired from a Ukrainian air defense system and was unintentional, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.34% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.76%.

The UK reported worse-than-expected inflation data. The Consumer Price Index for October was up 11% yr/yr.

In other news, former President Trump announced he will run for president in 2024.

Market participants will receive the following U.S. economic data today:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -0.1%)

  • 8:30 ET: October Import/Export Prices, October Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%; prior 0.0%), and Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.1%)

  • 9:15 ET: October Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 80.3%; prior 80.3%)

  • 10:00 ET: September Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.8%) and November NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 36; prior 38)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +3.92 mln)

In corporate news:

  • Target (TGT 154.52, -24.46, -13.67%): misses by $0.64, misses on revs; announced an enterprise initiative

  • Lowe's (LOW 213.84, +5.00, +2.39%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • TJX 3.30% (TJX 74.50, -0.62, -0.83%): beats by $0.06, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS midpoint below consensus; Q3 comps -2%

  • Intel (INTC 30.75, +0.04, +0.13%): will have to pay $949 mln following verdict in patent dispute, according to Reuters.

  • NIKE (NKE 105.00, -1.71, -1.60%): increases its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.34/share

  • Qualcomm (QCOM 126.26, +0.24, +0.19%): Credit Suisse initiated coverage with an Outperform

  • Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR 61.50, +1.76, +2.95%): appoints Patrick Doyle as Executive Chairman

  • Advance Auto (AAP 156.01, -27.93, -15.18%): misses by $0.50, reports revs in-line, comps -0.7%; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

  • Carnival (CCL 9.78, -1.38, -12.37%): commences a private offering of $1 bln of convertible notes to be used as part of the co's 2024 refinancing plan; prices offering of $1 bln of its 5.75% convertible senior notes due 2027

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's October House Prices -1.6% yr/yr (last -1.5%)

      • Japan's September Core Machinery Orders -4.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last -5.8%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 7.4%; last 9.7%). September Tertiary Industry Activity Index -0.4% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%)

      • Australia's October MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.1%). Q3 Wage Price Index 1.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.9%; last 0.8%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.6%)


  • In news:

    • Property names in China gave back some of their recent gains after some announced equity raises and restructuring plans. In addition, house prices decreased for the sixth consecutive month in October.

    • There was speculation that the People's Bank of China will lower the loan prime rate

    • The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission called on Congress to provide a report on China's compliance with terms of an agreement from 1999 on market access.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.8%, Germany's DAX: -1.0%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.6%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.1%.

    • In economic data:

      • U.K.'s October CPI 2.0% m/m (expected 1.7%; last 0.5%); 11.1% yr/yr (expected 10.7%; last 10.1%). October Core CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.4%; last 6.5%). October Input PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.9%) and Output PPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.3%)

      • Italy's October CPI 3.4% m/m (expected 3.5%; last 0.3%); 11.8% yr/yr (expected 11.9%; last 8.9%)


  • In news:

    • Polish officials said that preliminary findings do not suggest that yesterday's missile accident was intentional, and it likely involved a Ukrainian air defense missile.

    • The U.K.'s CPI accelerated to its highest level in 41 years in the October reading.

    • The Autumn Budget Statement will be delivered tomorrow, and it is expected to call for tax hikes and spending cuts.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -3 @ 3,988

  • DJIA Futures: -37 @ 33,556

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -16 @ 11,855

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.0%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.11 @ 86.81

  • Nat Gas -0.105 @ 5.929

  • Gold +6.15 @ 1782.95

  • Silver +0.407 @ 21.925

  • Copper -0.0273 @ 3.7927

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Advance Auto ( AAP 17.26% ) misses by $0.50, reports revs in-line, comps -0.7%; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

  • Alcon ( ALC 6.63% ) beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Ferroglobe PLC ( GSM 15.19% ) reports Q3 (Sep) results, misses on revs (two analyst estimate)

  • Grab ( GRAB 3.83% ) beats by $0.02; beats on revs; raises FY22 guidance

  • Lowe's ( LOW 5.77% ) beats by $0.18, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Navigator Holdings ( NVGS 9.70% ) reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs

  • On ( ONON 11.66% ) misses by CHF0.04, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs above consensus

  • Similarweb ( SMWB 21.61% ) beats by $0.09, slightly beats on revs; issues downside Q4 revenue guidance

  • Target ( TGT 12.29% ) misses by $0.64, misses on revs; announced an enterprise initiative

  • TJX ( TJX 3.30% ) beats by $0.06, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus

  • Varex Imaging ( VREX 1.43% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Vimeo ( VMEO 1.73% ) reports October 2022 total sales +2% yr/yr, subscribers -3% yr/yr, ARPU +5% yr/yr

  • Winnebago ( WGO 0.21% ) outlines its 2025 strategic plan during Investor Day; targets $5.5 bln in revs; 19% gross margins; 13% adjusted EBITDA, and $400 mln in free cash flow

  • ZIM Integrated Shipping ( ZIM 2.12% ) beats on top and bottom lines; raises guidance

News:

  • President Biden says it is "unlikely" missiles that landed in Poland yesterday were fired from Russia; says NATO will have a meeting

  • NATO ambassadors to meet at the request of Poland for consultations, according to Reuters

  • Poland believes that missile that landed yesterday was fired from a Ukrainian air defense system and was unintentional, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • China continues to ease coronavirus restrictions, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Former President Trump announces he will run for president in 2024

  • Senate passes bill 62-36 to end coronavirus emergency, but President Biden says he will veto it, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • FTX could have 1 million creditors, according to Reuters

  • White House issues readout of President Joe Biden's Meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom

  • 55 million Americans are expected to travel for Thanksgiving, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • EU and Egypt step up cooperation on the clean energy transition

  • 2U ( TWOU 6.27% ): edX, an online learning platform from 2U, announces a new collaboration with Emeritus, a provider of online courses

  • AMERCO ( UHAL 1.94% ) to transfer of listing of common stock to the NYSE and change name on December 19

  • Amkor ( AMKR 1.70% ) increases quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.075/sh, new yield is 1.1%; also to return 40-50% of cumulative free cash flow generated over time

  • ANI Pharma ( ANIP 2.20% ) announces the FDA approval and launch of trimethoprim tablets USP

  • Apple ( AAPL 1.03% ) prepares to source chips for its devices from a plant under construction in Arizona, according to Bloomberg

  • Ardelyx ( ARDX 0.82% ): FDA Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee planning to hold a virtual meeting tomorrow to discuss new drug application (NDA) 213931, for tenapanor hydrochloride tablets

  • Athira Pharma ( ATHA 3.17% ) presents preclinical data supporting therapeutic potential of HGF/MET Platform at Neuroscience 2022 Conference

  • Axalta Coating Systems ( AXTA 1.30% ) appoints Chris Villavarayan as Chief Executive Officer and President

  • BlackBerry ( BB 0.62% ) expands BlackBerry SecuSUITE partners in Asia Pacific, with three new companies certified to deliver software for governments and enterprises

  • Broadmark Realty ( BRMK 9.69% ) lowers monthly cash dividend to $0.035 per share from $0.07 per share

  • CEMEX S.A. ( CX 0.11% ) expects a promising medium-term outlook for its markets, bolstered by fiscal stimulus packages in the US and Europe related to infrastructure and green spending

  • Cyxtera Technologies ( CYTX ) announces update on REIT Conversion

  • Dada ( DADA 0.80% ) sets new records for sales and delivery volume during 2022 Singles' Day Grand Promotion

  • Discover Financial Services ( DFS 3.63% ) to resume repurchases under its existing share repurchase program authorizing up to $4.2 bln of share repurchases through June 30, 2023

  • Ford ( F 2.10% ) believes electric vehicle production will need 40% fewer workers, according to Financial Times

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 1.27% ) and California Engineering Contractors awarded another contract by the California Department of Transportation; newest contract is a $50 million child project

  • Group 1 Auto ( GPI 0.09% ) increased its common stock repurchase authorization by $161 million to $200 million, and also declared an increase to the quarterly cash dividend to $0.39/share from $0.38/share

  • ICF International ( ICFI 0.19% ) awarded two contracts totaling $34 mln from the U.S. DOL ILAB; both were awarded in Q3

  • Insteel Industries ( IIIN 2.53% ) declares a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share

  • Intel ( INTC 2.44% ) will have to pay $949 mln following verdict in patent dispute, according to Reuters

  • LL Flooring Holdings ( LL 5.29% ) announced that its Executive Vice President and CFO Nancy Walsh has decided to pursue another opportunity and will be leaving the company effective December 9, 2022

  • Lulu's Fashion Lounge ( LVLU 17.49% ) promotes CFO Crystal Landsem to become new CEO, effective March 6

  • New Found Gold Corp. ( NFGC 2.77% ) Intercepts 85.7 G/T AU Over 5.65M & 13.4 G/T AU Over 9.05M at Keats Main Zone, Initiates Use of Chrysos PhotonAssay Method

  • NIKE ( NKE 0.27% ) increases its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.34/share

  • O'Reilly Auto ( ORLY 1.82% ) approves to increase its share repurchase program by an additional $1.5 bln, raising the aggregate authorization under the program to $21.75 bln

  • Peloton ( PTON 4.65% ) announces expansion of collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) in UK, Germany

  • Pennant Group ( PNTG 10.37% ) initiates a search for a new CFO; current CFO Jennifer Freeman moves to interim CFO with the intention to remain with the company; CIO Derek Bunker to resign, effective December 31

  • Restaurant Brands Int'l ( QSR 6.36% ) appoints Patrick Doyle as Executive Chairman

  • Sempra Energy ( SRE 2.24% ) enters into a heads of agreement (HOA) with Williams (WMB) for the offtake of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and development of associated natural gas pipeline projects

  • Sundial Growers' ( SNDL 1.12% ) Board approves share repurchase program of up to C$100 mln in common stock

  • Teradyne ( TER 2.71% ) announces that Gregory Smith, President of the company, will succeed Mark E. Jagiela as CEO

  • Terran Orbital ( LLAP 0.94% ) announced the successful launch of LunIR

  • Tesla ( TSLA 2.74% ) had two fatal crashes related to driver assistance systems, according to Reuters

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 1.15% ) will hike ticket prices to its four parks next month, according to NY Post

  • Zegna Group ( ZGN 0.65% ) to enter a long-term license for TOM FORD fashion with Este Lauder (EL), contingent on the closing of the acquisition by EL

M&A:

  • Arconic ( ARNC 2.78% ) completes sale of 100% of its Russian operations to Promishlennie Investitsii LLC, the majority owner of VSMPO-AVISMA, for $230 mln

  • Estee Lauder ( EL 0.42% ) confirms plans to acquire Tom Ford for $2.8 bln in cash, debt and $300 mln in deferred payments; expects to be dilutive to adjusted EPS in FY23; neutral to adjusted EPS in FY24

  • OceanTech Acquisitions I Corp ( OTEC 0.48% ): Majic Wheels Corp enters definitive merger agreement with OceanTech Acquisitions I Corp

  • Oshkosh ( OSK 2.14% ) to acquire Hinowa S.p.A, a manufacturer of track-based aerial work platforms, lift trucks, and undercarriages; financial details not disclosed

Syndicate:

  • AerSale ( ASLE 12.68% ) selling stockholders intends to offer for sale in an underwritten secondary offering 4.0 mln shares of common stock

  • Carnival ( CCL 13.66% ) commences a private offering of $1 bln of convertible notes to be used as part of the co's 2024 refinancing plan

  • ESAB Corp. ( ESAB 8.02% ) prices secondary offering of 6,003,431 shares of its common stock currently owned by Enovis Corporation (ENOV) at $40.00 per share

  • Ginkgo Bioworks ( DNA 9.55% ) intends to offer and sell $100 mln of its common stock in an underwritten public offering

  • Hologic ( HOLX 0.87% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • indie Semiconductor ( INDI 14.59% ) announces convertible senior notes offering and $50 mln share repurchase program

  • Laureate Education ( LAUR 9.71% ) commences underwritten secondary offering of 32,842,183 shares by certain existing stockholders affiliated with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.

  • Natera ( NTRA 11.62% ) prices offering of 11.43 mln shares of common stock at $35.00 per share

  • Privia Health ( PRVA 5.69% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Sarcos Technology ( STRC 0.00% ) files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • UroGen Pharma ( URGN 2.42% ) files $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Wolfspeed ( WOLF 2.28% ) to offer $1.3 bln million aggregate principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due 2029

IPOs:

  • Expect to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • ARDX +5.7%, ALC +3.5%, ZGN +3.1%, OSK +3%, LOW +3%, EL +1.8%, NTRA +1.4%, IIIN +1.3%, WMB +0.9%, QSR +0.9%, TER +0.8%, WGO +0.7%, VREX +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

    • AAP -14.1%, LVLU -12.6%, CCL -12.4%, SMWB -9.6%, GSM -9.2%, NVGS -7.8%, DNA -6.7%, ASLE -5%, PRVA -3%, HOLX -2.8%, TWOU -2.6%, ORLY -2.1%, SRE -2.1%, AZO -1.8%, TWST -1.5%, ESAB -1%, ONON -0.8%



Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • BRF SA (BRFS) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman

    • Cabot (CBT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $90

    • Consolidated Water (CWCO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney; tgt $20

    • Lincoln National (LNC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $46

    • Oscar Health (OSCR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $4

    • Tencent Music (TME) upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company; tgt $7


  • Downgrades:

    • Corteva (CTVA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt raised to $73

    • DT Midstream (DTM) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Evoqua Water (AQUA) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

    • Evotec SE (EVO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

    • Magellan Midstream (MMP) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $49

    • Rapid7 (RPD) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets


  • Others:

    • AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) initiated with a Buy at Truist; tgt $29

    • MindMed (MNMD) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $5


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

    • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Nov. 12 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -0.1%)

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 0.9%; Prior 0.0%)

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 0.6%; Prior 0.1%)

    • 08:30 ET: Export Prices ex-Ag for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -0.9%)

    • 08:30 ET: Import Prices ex-Oil for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -0.4%)

    • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 0.0%; Prior 0.4%)

    • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus 80.3%; Prior 80.3%)

    • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 0.5%; Prior 0.8%)

    • 10:00 ET: NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 36; Prior 38)

    • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Nov 12 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +3.92M)

    • 16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior $197.9B)


  • Earnings:

    • Monday (Nov 14)

      • Morning: MASS ACM YOU CGEN XRAY MNDY OTLY TWKS TSEM TSN

      • Afternoon: AZTA DLO HLLY JJSF SHLS VVV


  • Tuesday (Nov 15)

    • Morning: ARMK BERY DAVA ENR AQUA HD HUYA DNUT SE TME WKME WMT

    • Afternoon: AAP VREX


  • Wednesday (Nov 16)

    • Morning: LOW ONON SR TGT TJX

    • Afternoon: BBWI CSCO CPA CPRT GLBE HP HI KLIC NVDA SONO


  • Thursday (Nov 17)

    • Morning: BABA BJ BRC BV CAMT CLBT DOLE KSS M NTES NJR WB

    • Afternoon: AMAT BRBR DLB ESE FTCH GPS GLOB KEYS PANW POST ROST STNE UGI WSM WWD


  • Friday (Nov 18)

    • Morning: ATKR BKE FL JD SPB TWST



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Property names in China gave back some of their recent gains after some announced equity raises and restructuring plans. In addition, house prices decreased for the sixth consecutive month in October. There was speculation that the People's Bank of China will lower the loan prime rate. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission called on Congress to provide a report on China's compliance with terms of an agreement from 1999 on market access.

  • In economic data:

    • China's October House Prices -1.6% yr/yr (last -1.5%)

    • Japan's September Core Machinery Orders -4.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last -5.8%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 7.4%; last 9.7%). September Tertiary Industry Activity Index -0.4% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%)

    • Australia's October MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.1%). Q3 Wage Price Index 1.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.9%; last 0.8%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.6%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.1%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.5%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.1%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 139.43

  • USD/CNH: +0.6% to 7.0870

  • USD/INR: +0.3% to 81.27

Europe: DAX -1.0%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.5%

Major European indices trade in the red. Polish officials said that preliminary findings do not suggest that yesterday's missile accident was intentional, and it likely involved a Ukrainian air defense missile. The U.K.'s CPI accelerated to its highest level in 41 years in the October reading. The Autumn Budget Statement will be delivered tomorrow, and it is expected to call for tax hikes and spending cuts.

  • In economic data:

    • U.K.'s October CPI 2.0% m/m (expected 1.7%; last 0.5%); 11.1% yr/yr (expected 10.7%; last 10.1%). October Core CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.4%; last 6.5%). October Input PPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.9%) and Output PPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.3%)

    • Italy's October CPI 3.4% m/m (expected 3.5%; last 0.3%); 11.8% yr/yr (expected 11.9%; last 8.9%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.8%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.0%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.5%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.6%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.1%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.7% to 1.0419

  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.1898

  • USD/CHF: -0.5% to 0.9392


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