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16/05/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Equity futures trade on a softer note. There's not a big negative bias, yet not a lot of follow through buying either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lags due to a decent loss in Home Depot (HD) after the company beat earnings estimates, disappointed with sales, and issued below-consensus FY24 EPS guidance and revenue guidance.

Uncertainty about the debt ceiling is still a limiting factor after Treasury Secretary Yellen warned again yesterday that the Treasury will likely not be able to meet all of the government's obligations potentially as early as June 1. President Biden will meet with congressional leaders to discuss the debt ceiling today at 3:00 p.m. ET, according to Reuters.

Concerns about global growth are another factor weighing on sentiment this morning after China reported a slate of disappointing economic data from April, including retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production.

In corporate news:

  • Capital One (COF 94.77, +5.65, +6.3%): Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) disclosed new position in Capital One (COF)

  • Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP 92.95, -19.30, -17.2%): FTC will soon challenge Amgen (AMGN) acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP), according to Bloomberg

  • The Home Depot (HD 282.00, -6.54, -2.3%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus, lowers comp sales guidance

  • Baidu (BIDU 130.05, +2.44, +1.9%): beats by RMB3.31, beats on revs

  • Western Alliance (WAL 31.99, +1.23, +4.5%): Bank of America resumes coverage with a Buy

  • Vodafone PLC (VOD 10.59, -0.63, -5.6%): beats by EUR0.01; outlines new roadmap for Vodafone; to cut 11,000 jobs over three years

  • Wells Fargo (WFC 38.70, -0.07, -0.2%) will pay $1 bln to settle class action lawsuit, according to WSJ

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6%, India's Sensex: -0.7%, South Korea's Kospi: UNCH, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's April Retail Sales 18.4% yr/yr (expected 21.0%; last 10.6%), April Fixed Asset Investment 4.7% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 5.1%), and April Industrial Production 5.6% yr/yr (expected 10.9%; last 3.9%). April Unemployment Rate 5.2% (expected 5.3%; last 5.3%)

      • South Korea's April Import Price Index -5.8% yr/yr (expected 10.5%; last -6.9%) and Export Price Index -7.5% yr/yr (expected -9.0%; last -6.2%)

      • Australia's May Westpac Consumer Sentiment -7.9% (expected -1.7%; last 9.4%)


  • In news:

    • China's National Development Reform Commission vowed to implement more policies to increase private investment.

    • The People's Bank of China noted that implementation of monetary policy will be precise and forceful, and that inflation may rebound gradually in the second half of the year.

    • The latest policy minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed a determination to bring inflation down to target.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's Q1 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.3%); 1.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.3%). Q1 employment change 0.6% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 1.5%). March trade surplus EUR25.6 bln (last surplus of EUR3.7 bln). May ZEW Economic Sentiment -9.4 (expected -1.0; last 6.4)

      • Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment -10.7 (expected -5.3; last 4.1) and ZEW Current Conditions -34.8 (expected -37.0; last -32.5)

      • U.K.'s March three-month employment change 182,000 (expected 160,000; last 169,000) and March Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%; last 3.8%). March Average Earnings Index + Bonus 5.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.8%)

      • Italy's April CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.4%); 8.2% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 7.6%)


  • In news:

    • Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey missed expectations with economists noting that Germany could still slip into a recession.

    • Bank of England Chief Economist Pill said that last week's rate hike was made due to a concern about excessive momentum in the economy.

    • Germany's Finance Minister Lindner said that the deficit will be reduced significantly in the 2024 budget.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -6 @ 4,130

  • DJIA Futures: -97 @ 33,252

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -5 @ 13,409

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC +0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng UNCH, Shanghai Composite -0.6%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.06 @ 71.05

  • Nat Gas -0.029 @ 2.346

  • Gold -12.65 @ 2010.05

  • Silver -0.334 @ 23.957

  • Copper -0.0830 @ 3.668


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Alight ( ALIT 2.18% ) outlines mid-term targets during Investor Day; expects annual revenue growth of +6-8%

  • CymaBay Therapeutics ( CBAY 0.00% ) misses by $0.19

  • Danaos ( DAC 4.28% ) reports Q1 results

  • FLEX LNG ( FLNG 1.82% ) reports in-line results; beats on revs

  • HF Sinclair ( DINO 0.00% ) in slide presentation says it plans to continue stock repurchases in 2023; sees refining CapEx of $250-280 mln in FY23

  • Home Depot ( HD 0.66% ) beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • HUYA ( HUYA 7.84% ) beats by RMB0.34, beats on revs

  • James Hardie ( JHX 0.93% ) beats on revs

  • Lithium Americas ( LAC 1.49% ) reports Q1 results; approves agreement providing for separation into two leading lithium companies

  • Navitas Semiconductor ( NVTS 0.00% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus

  • Nu Holdings ( NU 4.82% ) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs

  • On ( ONON 1.73% ) beats by CHF0.05, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Paysafe ( PSFE 8.38% ) beats by $0.71, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Quipt Home Medical ( QIPT 0.00% ) reports Q2 results; beats on revs; files prospectus to sell up to $40.0 shares of common stock

  • Rumble ( RUM 0.00% ) reports Q1 (Mar) results; misses GAAP EPS by $0.08 (two ests), beats on revs (two ests); minutes watched per month growth of 3% yr/yr; MAU growth of 17% to 48 mln

  • Sea Limited ( SE 3.89% ) misses by $0.58, reports revs in-line

  • Stratasys ( SSYS 0.00% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Tencent Music ( TME 9.34% ) beats by RMB0.09, beats on revs

  • Vodafone PLC ( VOD 0.00% ) beats by EUR0.01; outlines new roadmap for Vodafone; to cut 11,000 jobs over three years

  • XP ( XP 0.00% ) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs

News:

  • President Biden will meet with congressional leaders on debt ceiling today at 15:00 ET, according to Reuters

  • U.S. Treasury Department reinforces June 1 default date unless debt ceiling is raised

  • US to purchase 3 million barrels of oil for strategic reserve in August, according to Bloomberg

  • Senate will hold hearing on artificial intelligence today at 10:00 ET

  • Alcoa ( AA 4.58% ) and Emirates Global Aluminium announce multi-year agreement for Alcoa to supply EGA with smelter grade alumina

  • Alkermes ( ALKS 0.00% ) highlights data from psychiatry portfolio at Spring 2023 Scientific Conferences

  • ARKO Corp. ( ARKO 0.00% ) increases its original share repurchase program to $100 million from $50 million

  • Baidu ( BIDU 0.00% ) beats by RMB3.31, beats on revs

  • Bayer ( BAYRY ) receives FDA Fast Track Designation for asundexian atrial fibrillation program

  • Bayer AG ( BAYRY ) receives U.S. FDA fast track designation for asundexian atrial fibrillation program

  • Becton Dickinson ( BDX 0.57% ) announced 510(k) clearance from the FDA for the new BD Kiestra Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) imaging applications

  • Bill.com ( BILL 4.26% ) concludes it had material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to information systems as of June 30, 2022

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.00% ) receives NDA submission acceptance for Lecanemab as treatment for early Alzheimer's disease in Canada

  • BioXcel Therapeutics ( BTAI 0.00% ) Announces Positive Top-Line Data from Repeat Dosing of BXCL501 in Phase 1b Multiple Ascending Dose Trial in Healthy Volunteers for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) Program

  • Bruker ( BRKR 0.00% ) approves new share repurchase authorization for up to $500 mln of common stock over two-year period

  • Cabaletta Bio ( CABA 0.00% ) announces that the Company's second Investigational New Drug application for CABA-201 has been cleared by the U.S. FDA for a Phase 1/2 study in patients with active idiopathic inflammatory myopathy

  • Cambium Networks ( CMBM 0.00% ): Enterprises and service providers boost security and network automation with cnMaestro 4.0 from Cambium Networks

  • Cheniere Energy ( LNG 1.28% ) announces that Cheniere's subsidiary, Cheniere Marketing International, has entered into a long-term liquefied natural gas sale and purchase agreement with Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd

  • Comcast ( CMCSA 0.00% ): NFL strikes one-year deal with Peacock to carry one NFL playoff game exclusively next season, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Danaos ( DAC 4.28% ) announces COO Iraklis Prokopakis will retire during 4Q23; current Deputy COO Dimitris Vastarouchas appointed COO

  • Ford ( F 0.26% ) aiming to scale back China investments, according to Financial Times

  • G1 Therapeutics ( GTHX 0.00% ): New study confirms consistent risk of myelosuppression across all patients receiving chemotherapy for small cell lung cancer

  • Globus Medical ( GMED 0.30% ) Announces FDA Approval for its Non-Fusion Scoliosis Correction System, the Latest Advancement for Young Patients with Idiopathic Scoliosis

  • IDEAYA ( IDYA 0.00% ) Expands Clinical Trial Collaboration and Supply Agreements with Pfizer to Support Registrational Trial Evaluating Darovasertib and Crizotinib Combination in First-Line Metastatic Uveal Melanoma

  • Immutep ( IMMP 0.00% ) received positive feedback from FDA on late-stage clinical development of eftilagimod alpha in non-small cell lung cancer

  • InflaRx ( IFRX 0.00% ) and Wuxi announce manufacturing partnership to advance Gohibic for the treatment of certain critically ill COVID-19 patients

  • Invitae ( NVTA 9.35% ) to appeal verdict finding that its products using Anchored Multiplex PCR chemistry infringe certain Natera, Inc. (NTRA) patents

  • LG Display ( LPL 2.34% ) to supply TV panels to Samsung (SSNLF), according to Reuters

  • Ligand Pharma ( LGND 0.00% ) announces positive top-line results from phase 2b voyage study of VK2809 in patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

  • Morgan Stanley ( MS 0.68% ) aiming to eliminate 7% of Asia investment banking jobs, according to Bloomberg

  • NuScale Power ( SMR 0.00% ) and Nucor (NUE) sign memorandum of understanding to explore deployment of small modular nuclear reactors to power nucor electric arc furnace steel mills

  • nVent Electric ( NVT 0.44% ) names CEO Beth Wozniak to additional position of Chair of the Board

  • Omnicell ( OMCL 0.00% ) appoints Nchacha E. Etta as CFO, effective June 1; succeeds Peter Kuipers who announced will be stepping down

  • Petrobras ( PBR 1.43% ) provides update on commercial strategy for diesel and gasoline

  • Rocket Lab USA ( RKLB 0.00% ) preparing to launch the second half of NASA's TROPICS satellite constellation as early as May 22

  • Roivant Sciences ( ROIV 0.00% ): Dermavant Sciences announces "positive" results from ADORING 1, the second of two double-blind, randomized, vehicle-controlled Phase 3 studies to evaluate the efficacy and safety of topical VTAMA cream, 1% in adults and pediatric subjects down to 2 years old with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis

  • Shake Shack ( SHAK 7.81% ) confirms it enters into cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital

  • SolarWinds ( SWI 0.69% ) adds transformative AI features to IT service management solutions

  • So-Young International ( SY 0.00% ) COO Rui Cai has resigned effective on May 16, 2023, due to personal reasons

  • SunPower ( SPWR 0.00% ) names Elizabeth Eby as CFO

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.00% ): Virgin Islands subpoenas Elon Musk related to Jeffrey Epstein lawsuit, according to CNN

  • Viking Therapeutics ( VKTX 0.00% ) announces positive top-line results from phase 2b voyage study of VK2809 in patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

  • Wells Fargo ( WFC 3.41% ) will pay $1 bln to settle class action lawsuit, according to the Wall Street Journal

M&A:

  • Amgen ( AMGN 0.00% ): FTC will soon challenge Amgen acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP), according to Bloomberg

  • Northern Oil & Gas ( NOG 1.43% ) announces joint acquisition of Forge Energy Assets; purchasing 30% undivided stake for $162 mln in cash

  • Rumble ( RUM 0.00% ) acquires live streaming platform CallIn; financial details not disclosed

  • Zoetis ( ZTS 0.13% ): JAB Holding Company acquires interest in Pumpkin Insurance Services; terms not disclosed

Syndicate:

  • Agilon Health ( AGL 1.41% ) launches public offering of 70,000,000 shares of its common stock by selling shareholder; to repurchase approximately $200 mln from underwriters at same per share price to be paid

  • Coherus BioSciences ( CHRS 0.00% ) priced its underwritten public offering of 11,764,706 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $4.25/share

  • Ducommun ( DCO 1.19% ) prices offering of 2.0 mln shares of common stock at $40.00 per share

  • First Watch Restaurant Group ( FWRG 0.00% ) announces secondary offering of 3.5 mln common stocks by Advent International Corporation

  • Fortuna Silver Mines ( FSM 0.57% ) beats on top and bottom lines

  • Kodiak Sciences ( KOD 0.00% ) files for $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Milestone Pharmaceuticals ( MIST 0.00% ) files for 13,888,850 common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Northern Oil & Gas ( NOG 1.43% ) prices offering of 6.65 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of ~$199.5 mln

  • Silk Road Medical ( SILK 0.00% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • NU +7.6%, PX +6.3%, COF +5.7%, QIPT +4.9%, DISH +3.8%, NVTS +3.2%, JHX +3%, IMMP +2.6%, HUYA +2%, BIDU +1.9%, IFRX +1.7%, XP +1.7%, ONON +1.7%, HPQ +1.6%, NVTA +1.6%, DEO +1.5%, CUTR +1.5%, LAC +1.4%, OMCL +1.3%, DAC +0.9%, MCK +0.8%, RKLB +0.7%, GMED +0.6%, AA +0.5%, BRKR +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

    • DCO -15.3%, AGL -9.2%, CHRS -9%, FWRG -7.8%, VOD -6.7%, SOVO -6.6%, SE -5.4%, RUM -5.2%, MIST -4.8%, RH -4.7%, HD -4.7%, CBAY -4.1%, FLNG -3.3%, NOG -3%, KOD -3%, YALA -2.1%, BK -1.6%, SILK -1.5%, TME -1%, FSM -0.9%, CMG -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Amdocs (DOX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $115

    • America Movil SA (AMX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at New Street; tgt raised to $27

    • Expedia Group (EXPE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Gordon Haskett

    • Gilead Sciences (GILD) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $100

    • NovoCure (NVCR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $104

    • Palomar Holdings (PLMR) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $64

    • Savara (SVRA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $4

    • Veris Residential (VRE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $19

    • Williams Cos (WMB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $36


  • Downgrades:

    • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $48

    • Cullen/Frost (CFR) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $121

    • NeoGenomics (NEO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

    • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $60

    • Royal Bank of Canada (RY) downgraded to Neutral from Sector Outperform at CIBC; tgt $4


  • Others:

    • Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) initiated with a Hold at Truist; tgt $4

    • Carvana (CVNA) resumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $12

    • Coinbase Global (COIN) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $55

    • First Horizon (FHN) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $14

    • GE HealthCare (GEHC) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $97

    • Rayonier (RYN) initiated with a Hold at Truist; tgt $33

    • Vor Biopharma (VOR) initiated with a Buy at Jones Trading; tgt $18

    • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $42


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Apr (Briefing.com Consensus 0.7%; Prior -1.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto for Apr (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior -0.8%)

  • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Apr (Briefing.com Consensus 0.0%; Prior 0.4%)

  • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Apr (Briefing.com Consensus 79.8%; Prior 79.8%)

  • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 0.0%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 10:00 ET: NAHB Housing Market Index for May (Briefing.com Consensus 45; Prior 45)

Earnings:

  • Monday (May 15)

    • Morning: AZUL CTLT MNDY SFL TSEM TPG

    • Afternoon: NVTS


  • Tuesday (May 16)

    • Morning: BIDU HD HUYA ONON PSFE SE SSYS TME

    • Afternoon: AGYS CPRT DOCS KEYS KD NXGN


  • Wednesday (May 17)

    • Morning: DT JACK RSKD TGT TJX TGI WKME WIX

    • Afternoon: BOOT CSCO DLO SQM STNE SNPS TTWO VSAT ZTO


  • Thursday (May 18)

    • Morning: WMS BABA BBWI BRC GOOS CSIQ DOLE EXP GRAB BEKE MNRO WMT

    • Afternoon: AMAT DXC FTCH FLO GLOB ROST


  • Friday (May 19)

    • Morning: DE FL RBC


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng UNCH, Shanghai Composite -0.6%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note. China's National Development Reform Commission vowed to implement more policies to increase private investment. The People's Bank of China noted that implementation of monetary policy will be precise and forceful, and that inflation may rebound gradually in the second half of the year. The latest policy minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed a determination to bring inflation down to target.

  • In economic data:

    • China's April Retail Sales 18.4% yr/yr (expected 21.0%; last 10.6%), April Fixed Asset Investment 4.7% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 5.1%), and April Industrial Production 5.6% yr/yr (expected 10.9%; last 3.9%). April Unemployment Rate 5.2% (expected 5.3%; last 5.3%)

    • South Korea's April Import Price Index -5.8% yr/yr (expected 10.5%; last -6.9%) and Export Price Index -7.5% yr/yr (expected -9.0%; last -6.2%)

    • Australia's May Westpac Consumer Sentiment -7.9% (expected -1.7%; last 9.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6%

  • India's Sensex: -0.7%

  • South Korea's Kospi: UNCH

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.2% to 135.79

  • USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.9753

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 82.16

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC +0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey missed expectations with economists noting that Germany could still slip into a recession. Bank of England Chief Economist Pill said that last week's rate hike was made due to a concern about excessive momentum in the economy. Germany's Finance Minister Lindner said that the deficit will be reduced significantly in the 2024 budget.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's Q1 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.3%); 1.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.3%). Q1 employment change 0.6% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 1.5%). March trade surplus EUR25.6 bln (last surplus of EUR3.7 bln). May ZEW Economic Sentiment -9.4 (expected -1.0; last 6.4)

    • Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment -10.7 (expected -5.3; last 4.1) and ZEW Current Conditions -34.8 (expected -37.0; last -32.5)

    • U.K.'s March three-month employment change 182,000 (expected 160,000; last 169,000) and March Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%; last 3.8%). March Average Earnings Index + Bonus 5.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.8%)

    • Italy's April CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.4%); 8.2% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 7.6%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0894

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.2536

  • USD/CHF: -0.3% to 0.8930


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