The S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 46 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 66 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.
Stock futures indicate a higher open on this huge quarterly options and futures expiration day. The rally in the bond market also continues. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.38% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.91%.Â
The positive bias in both the stock and bond markets is related to the dovish Fed pivot, but also some fear of missing out on further gains.
WTI crude oil futures are up 0.8% to $72.17/bbl.
Market participants will receive the following U.S. economic data today:
8:30 a.m. ET: December Empire State Manufacturing (Briefing.com consensus 3.0; prior 9.1)
9:15 a.m. ET: November Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.6%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 79.1%; prior 78.9%)
9:45 a.m. ET: December Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (prior 49.4) and S&P Global US Services PMI (prior 50.8)
4:00 p.m. ET: October Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior -$1.7 billion)
In corporate news:
Costco (COST 647.97, +17.19, +2.7%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line, also declares special cash dividend of $15/share
Lennar (LEN 151.39, -3.42, -2.2%):Â beats by $0.23, beats on revs, beats on new orders and deliveries, falls short of gross margin expectations; guides for Q1 deliveries of 16,500-17,000
RTX
Nucor (NUE 172.55, +1.70, +1.0%): increases its quarterly dividend 5.9% to $0.54/share; 1.3% annual yield
U.S. Steel (X 39.00, +0.14, +0.4%): guides Q4 EPS in-line with consensus
Pfizer (PFE 26.40, +0.27, +1.0%): increases its quarterly dividend by 2.4% to $0.42/share; annual yield of 6.4%
General Electric (GE 123.75, +2.40, +2.0%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo;Â selected by NASA to work with its Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core project, which aims to develop more fuel efficient engines for single-aisle aircraft
Darden Restaurants (DRI 161.10, -1.99, -1.2%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Reviewing overnight developments:
Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher on Friday, closing out a winning week in most cases. Japan's Nikkei: +0.9% (+2.1% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.6% (+3.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6% (-0.9% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.4% (+2.4% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +0.8% (+1.8% for the week), Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.8% (+3.5% for the week)
In economic data:
China's November Retail Sales 10.1% yr/yr (expected 12.5%; last 7.6%); November Industrial Production 6.6% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 4.6%); November Fixed Asset Investment 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.9%); November House Prices -0.2% yr/yr (last -0.1%); November Unemployment Rate 5.0% (expected 5.0%; last 5.0%)
Japan's Preliminary December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 47.7 (expected 48.2; last 48.3) and au Jibun Bank Services PMI 52.0 (last 50.8); October Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.20 (last 1.90)
Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI 47.8 (last 47.7) and Judo Bank Services PMI 47.6 (last 46.0)
In news:
Friday's action followed a slate of data that included weaker-than-expected retail sales, fixed asset investment, and house prices, and better-than-expected industrial production for November.
The PBOC made a record monthly net liquidity injection of CNY800 billion and left its 1-yr medium-term lending facility unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
Reuters also reported that China will be targeting a 2024 budget deficit that is 3% of GDP, down from 3.8% in 2023, but would issue special bonds if more fiscal support is needed. The GDP growth rate target will be around 5%.
China reportedly trimmed the down payment requirement for first-time home buyers to 30% from 35-40%.
Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said market moves are being closely watched but will not comment on market speculation.
The yen continued to strengthen against the dollar ahead of next week's BOJ meeting. USD/JPY -0.1% to 141.74 after scraping 145.99 on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC decision.
Major European indices are mixed with modest changes on either side of the unchanged line. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (+1.2% for the week), Germany's DAX: +0.4% (+0.3% for the week), UK's FTSE 100: -0.5% (+0.8% for the week), France's CAC 40: +0.6% (+1.3% for the week), Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% (+0.3% for the week), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.8% (-1.3% for the week).
In economic data:
Eurozone's Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 44.6; last 44.2); Preliminary December HCOB Services PMI 48.1 (expected 49.0; last 48.7); October Trade Balance EUR11.1 billion (last EUR9.8 billion); Q3 Labor Cost Index 5.3% yr/yr (last 4.50%)
Germany's Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 43.1 (expected 43.2; last 42.6); Preliminary December HCOB Services PMI 48.4 (expected 49.8; last 49.6)
Italy's November CPI -0.5% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%) and 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.7%)
France's November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.1%) and 3.5% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 4.0%); Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 42.0 (expected 43.3; last 42.9); Preliminary HCOB Services PMI 44.3 (expected 46.0; last 45.4)
UK's Preliminary December S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 46.4 (expected 47.5; last 47.2); Preliminary December S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI 52.7 (expected 51.0; last 50.9); December Gfk Consumer Confidence -22 (expected -22; last -24)
In news:
Today produced a series of weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMIs for December, which stirred speculation about the ECB not being able to retain a hawkish line; nonetheless, several ECB officials followed ECB President Lagarde yesterday in saying that there was no discussion of rate cuts.
Sovereign bond yields, though, keep sliding, which is lending support to equities.
The UK registered a stronger than expected Services PMI reading for December and some improved consumer confidence.
Germany's Bundesbank cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.2% and lowered its CPI forecast to 2.7% from 3.1%.
Â
U.S. equity futures:
S&P 500 Futures +10 @ 4,729
DJIA Futures: +80 @ 37,329
Nasdaq 100 Futures: +52Â @ 16,590
Overseas:
Europe:Â DAX +0.4%, FTSE -0.5% CAC +0.6%
Asia:Â Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +2.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%
Commodities:
Crude Oil +0.59Â @ 72.17
Nat Gas +0.017 @ 2.409
Gold +10.15 @ 2055.05
Silver +0.076 @ 24.462
Copper -0.0103 @ 3.8822
Earnings/Guidance:
ARMOUR Residential REIT (
Comp Siderurgica (
Costco (
Darden Restaurants (
Genco Shipping & Trading (
Lennar (
Millicom International Cellular (
Quanex (
RCI Hospitality (
Scholastic Corp (
Unisys (
U.S. Steel (
News:
China will run budget deficit of 3% of GDP next year, according to Reuters
EU fails to agree on additional aid to Ukraine, according to Financial Times
Senate will delay holiday recess to try to reach deal on Ukraine funding and border security, but chances of agreement remain low, according to the New York Times
Aadi Bioscience (
AC Immune (
American Lithium Corp. (
Aris Water Solutions (
ATN International (
Braskem SA (
Brixmor Property (
Capital One (
Citigroup (
Constellation Energy (
Corebridge Financial (
Cullinan Oncology (
Edison (
Elanco Animal Health (
First Interstate Bancsystem (
First Savings Finl (
General Electric (
General Motors (
Gildan Activewear (
Hanesbrands (
HIVE Digital Technologies (
Iris Energy (
JPMorgan Chase (
Karuna Therapeutics (
Kilroy Realty (
Lamb Weston (
Merck (
Mettler-Toledo (
NatWest Group plc (
Nautilus Biotechnology (
New York Mortgage Trust (
Nucor (
OmniAb (
OpenAI, Microsft (
PC Connection (
Petrobras (
Pfizer (
Ready Capital (
Rio Tinto (
RLI Corp (
RTX (
Sanofi (
Taylor Morrison Home (
Tencent Holdings (
Traeger (
Trupanion (
Verrica Pharmaceuticals (
M&A:
Blackstone (
EQT (
Lincoln National (
Webster Financial (
Syndicate:
Coca-Cola Consolidated (
Eos Energy (
Heritage Insurance (
Surgery Partners (
Syndax Pharmaceuticals (
IPOs:
No IPOs expected to price.
Gapping Up/Down
Gapping up:
VRCA +10.1%, HIVE +5.6%, ENSG +5%, IOAC +4.4%, ARIS +4.1%, CHWY +3.7%, CGEM +2%, ELAN +1.7%, COST +1.3%, GE +1.2%, CEG +1.2%, CRBG +1.1%, PFE +1%, EIX +0.8%
Gapping down:
AADI -46.4%, EOSE -19.6%, SCHL -12.7%, NX -7.8%, SGRY -4.9%, COOK -4.8%, NYMT -4%, LEN -3.3%, SNDX -2.3%, RICK -2.3%, BLBD -2.2%, KRTX -1.8%, NAUT -1.3%, FIBK -1.3%, HRTG -1.2%, SHIP -1.1%
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Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):
Upgrades
Advanced Micro (AMD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $165
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $6.00
Church & Dwight (CHD) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $100
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $90
Clorox (CLX) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $150
CubeSmart (CUBE) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $49
Equifax (EFX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $290
General Electric (GE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $144
L3Harris (LHX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $240
Micron (MU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $95
Moody's (MCO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $455
SBA Comm (SBAC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $285
Downgrades:
Aadi Bioscience (AADI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright
Ameren (AEE) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $230
Axcelis Tech (ACLS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities
BlackRock (BLK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $708
Boyd Gaming (BYD) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $66
Brown & Brown (BRO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $71
Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $243
DocuSign (DOCU) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Daiwa Securities; tgt $60
GlobalFoundries (GFS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $65
Hershey Foods (HSY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $200
Kilroy Realty (KRC) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $115
Marsh McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $192
Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $171
U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $52
Marriott Vacations (VAC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $90
Zions Bancorp (ZION) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $45
Roku (ROKU) downgraded to Sell from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson; tgt $66
Others:
Akamai Tech (AKAM) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $150
Box (BOX) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $36
Dropbox (DBX) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $36
Enphase Energy (ENPH) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $121
First Solar (FSLR) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $211
Intuit (INTU) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $700
Sanmina (SANM) resumed with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $45
SunPower (SPWR) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $5.50
Vista Outdoor (VSTO) resumed with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $32
Econ Data:
08:30 ET: Empire State Manufacturing for Dec (Briefing.com Consensus 3.0; Prior 9.1)
09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior -0.6%)
09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus 79.1%; Prior 78.9%)
09:45 ET: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Prelim for Dec (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 49.4)
09:45 ET: S&P Global US Services PMI - Prelim for Dec (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 50.8)
16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -$1.7B)
Earnings:
Monday (Dec 11)
Afternoon: CASY ORCL
Wednesday (Dec 13)
Morning: ABM CGNT PLAB REVG
Afternoon:Â Â ADBE NDSN
Thursday (Dec 14)
Morning: JBL
Afternoon: COST LEN
Friday (Dec 15)
Morning: DRI
Â
Asia & Europe detail:
Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +2.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%
Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher on Friday, closing out a winning week in most cases. China's Shanghai Composite was the exception on both fronts, sliding 0.6% today and 0.9% for the week. Friday's action followed a slate of data that included weaker-than-expected retail sales, fixed asset investment, and house prices, and better-than-expected industrial production for November. Headlines also featured the PBOC making a record monthly net liquidity injection of CNY800 billion and leaving its 1-yr medium-term lending facility unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. Reuters also reported that China will be targeting a 2024 budget deficit that is 3% of GDP, down from 3.8% in 2023, but would issue special bonds if more fiscal support is needed. The GDP growth rate target will be around 5%. China also reportedly trimmed the down payment requirement for first-time home buyers to 30% from 35-40%. Separately, Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said market moves are being closely watched but will not comment on market speculation. The yen continued to strengthen against the dollar ahead of next week's BOJ meeting. USD/JPY -0.1% to 141.74 after scraping 145.99 on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC decision.
In economic data:
China's November Retail Sales 10.1% yr/yr (expected 12.5%; last 7.6%); November Industrial Production 6.6% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 4.6%); November Fixed Asset Investment 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.9%); November House Prices -0.2% yr/yr (last -0.1%); November Unemployment Rate 5.0% (expected 5.0%; last 5.0%)
Japan's Preliminary December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 47.7 (expected 48.2; last 48.3) and au Jibun Bank Services PMI 52.0 (last 50.8); October Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.20 (last 1.90)
Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI 47.8 (last 47.7) and Judo Bank Services PMI 47.6 (last 46.0)
---Equity Markets---
Japan's Nikkei:Â +0.9% (+2.1% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng:Â +2.6% (+3.0% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6% (-0.9% for the week)
India's Sensex: +1.4% (+2.4% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi:Â +0.8% (+1.8% for the week)
Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.8% (+3.5% for the week)
---FX---
USD/JPY: -0.1% to 141.74
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.1126
USD/INR: -0.3% to 83.011
Â
Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE -0.5% CAC +0.6%
Major European indices are mixed with modest changes on either side of the unchanged line. Today produced a series of weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMIs for December, which stirred speculation about the ECB not being able to retain a hawkish line; nonetheless, several ECB officials followed ECB President Lagarde yesterday in saying that there was no discussion of rate cuts. Sovereign bond yields, though, keep sliding, which is lending support to equities. The UK registered a stronger than expected Services PMI reading for December and some improved consumer confidence. Germany's Bundesbank cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.2% and lowered its CPI forecast to 2.7% from 3.1%.
In economic data:
Eurozone's Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 44.2 (expected 44.6; last 44.2); Preliminary December HCOB Services PMI 48.1 (expected 49.0; last 48.7); October Trade Balance EUR11.1 billion (last EUR9.8 billion); Q3 Labor Cost Index 5.3% yr/yr (last 4.50%)
Germany's Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 43.1 (expected 43.2; last 42.6); Preliminary December HCOB Services PMI 48.4 (expected 49.8; last 49.6)
Italy's November CPI -0.5% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%) and 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.7%)
France's November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.1%) and 3.5% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 4.0%); Preliminary December HCOB Manufacturing PMI 42.0 (expected 43.3; last 42.9); Preliminary HCOB Services PMI 44.3 (expected 46.0; last 45.4)
UK's Preliminary December S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 46.4 (expected 47.5; last 47.2);Â Preliminary December S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI 52.7 (expected 51.0; last 50.9); December Gfk Consumer Confidence -22 (expected -22; last -24)
---Equity Markets---
STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (+1.2% for the week)
Germany's DAX: +0.4% (+0.3% for the week)
UK's FTSE 100: -0.5% (+0.8% for the week)
France's CAC 40: +0.6% (+1.3% for the week)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% (+0.3% for the week)
Spain's IBEX 35: -0.8%Â (-1.3% for the week)
---FX---
EUR/USD: -0.3% to 1.0959
GBP/USD: flat at 1.2766
USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.8656
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