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16/06/22 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 91 points and are trading 2.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 309 points and are trading 2.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 607 points and are trading 1.9% below fair value.

Once again, there has been a quick inclination to sell into strength as the reality hits home that inflation, weaker growth, and central bank rate hikes are not just a U.S. problem. They are effectively a global problem (well, not rate hikes in Japan or China, but just about everywhere else).

The stark reality of a hawkish central bank pivot has been perpetuated by the Fed's largest rate hike (75 bps) yesterday in 28 years, a surprise 50-basis point rate hike by the Swiss National Bank today, a 50-basis point rate hike by Brazil's central bank, and the Bank of England (BOE) following course with a 25-basis point rate hike this morning.

Coupled with the rate hikes -- and partly because of them -- are forecasts for weaker growth and building anxiousness about a potential economic and profit recession. Relatedly, the BOE thinks Q2 GDP will fall by 0.3% as a whole, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is expecting Q2 real GDP to be flat versus a prior forecast of 0.9% growth.

There is a stagflation buzz in the air and it isn't good. Sovereign bond yields are rising again today and most global equity markets are/were lower.

The 2-yr note yield is up 11 bps to 3.38%. The 10-yr note yield is up seven bps to 3.47%. WTI crude futures are down 1.9% to $113.17/bbl while natural gas futures are up 5.2% to $7.81/mmbtu.

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 667.69, -31.31, -4.5%): Reuters reports that company has raised its prices across its entire vehicle lineup

  • Commercial Metals Company (CMC 37.68, +0.41, +1.1%): beats by $0.76, beats on revs; says robust demand for each of CMC's major product lines is expected to persist, augmented by growing downstream backlog and solid levels of new work entering the project pipeline.

  • KLA-Tencor (KLAC 319.15, -4.64, -1.4%): reaffirms Q4 guidance; announces $6 bln share repurchase program and dividend raise at Investor Day

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei +0.4%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2.2%; China's Shanghai Composite -0.6%; India's Sensex -2.0%; South Korea's Kospi +0.2%; and Australia's All Ordinaries unchnaged.

  • In economic data:

  • China's May Home Prices -0.1% yr/yr (last 0.7%)

  • Japan's May trade deficit JPY2.38 trln (expected deficit of JPY2.02 trln; last deficit of JPY842.8 bln)

  • South Korea's May Import Price Index 36.3% yr/yr (last 35.0%) and Export Price Index 23.5% yr/yr (last 21.4%)

  • Australia's May Employment Change 60,600 (expected 25,000; last 4,500) and full employment change 69,400 (last 93,300). May Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%; last 3.9%) and May Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 66.4%; last 66.4%). MI Inflation Expectations 6.7% (last 5.0%)

  • New Zealand's Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 3.0%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last 3.1%)


  • In news:

  • Japan reported its widest trade deficit since January 2014.

  • The Bank of Japan is meeting today and tomorrow, but it is not expected to make any policy changes.

  • Australia's MI inflation expectations increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May, representing the highest increase since the series began in 2008.

  • South Korea's President Yoon said that the economy is facing a "very grave" situation.



  • Major European indices trade sharply lower across the board. STOXX Europe 600 -2.3%; Germany's DAX -2.9%; UK's FTSE 100 -2.4%; France's CAC 40 -2.3%; Italy's FTSE MIB -3.0%; and Spain's IBEX 35 -1.4%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q1 wages 2.7% yr/yr (last 1.5%) and labor cost index 3.2% yr/yr (last 1.9%)

  • Italy's May CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -0.1%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.9%; last 6.0%)

  • Spain's April trade deficit EUR6.40 bln (last deficit of EUR4.60 bln)


  • In news:

  • The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25 bps to 1.25% while the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly increased its policy rate by 50 bps to -0.25%.

  • European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that inflation may be more entrenched than policymakers previously thought.

  • ECB officials reportedly want a new tool to deal with fragmentation in time for the July meeting.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -93 @ 3,697

  • DJIA Futures: -615 @ 30,052

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -334 @ 11,260

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -2.9%, FTSE -2.4%, CAC -2.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -2.09 @ 113.22

  • Nat Gas +0.421 @ 7.841

  • Gold +0.55 @ 1820.15

  • Silver -0.055 @ 21.365

  • Copper -0.0835 @ 4.0800

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings:

  • Commercial Metals (CMC) beats by $0.76, beats on revs

  • Customers Bancorp (CUBI) provides mid-quarter financial update

  • ITT (ITT) provides long-term revs growth outlook of 5-7% at investor conference

  • Jabil (JBL) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • KLA Corporation (KLAC) reaffirms Q4 guidance; announces $6 bln share repurchase program and dividend raise at Investor Day

  • Performance Food Group (PFGC) reaffirms FY22 revenue guidance; raises FY22 adjusted EBITDA guidance

  • Tronox (TROX) raises bottom end of FY22EPS guidance at Investor Day


  • General News:

  • Jeff Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital interviewed on CNBC questions if Fed can pull off soft landing

  • US fears that crude oil prices could surge due to decision to ban insurance on Russian oil tankers, according to Financial Times

  • Bank of England raises rates 25 basis points to 1.25%

  • Atlanta Fed Q2 US GDP estimate lowered to 0.0% from 0.9%

  • Natural gas prices in Europe spike as Russia reduces supplies again, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Congress plans to narrow China competitiveness and semiconductor manufacturing legislation in an attempt to get it passed. They plan to remove labor, climate, and controversial trade provisions. However, it might not be enough to pass, according to Punchbowl News

  • White House issues readout of meeting with President Biden and Democratic congressional leadership

  • Department of Transportation officials will meet with airline CEOs today to discuss summer flying schedule and how to mitigate any disruptions -CNBC

  • FAA wants airlines to take action amid carriers plan to increase 5G signals, according to Reuters

  • Atlantic City casino workers vote to strike, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Abbott (ABT) stops production at baby formula plant due to severe weather, according to Reuters

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Board discloses independent directors review of workplace issues

  • AFC Gamma (AFCG) increases quarterly dividend to $0.56/share from $0.55/share

  • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) announces two financing transactions with Pfizer (PFE) and Hercules Capital (HTGC) providing access to up to $125 million

  • Allison Transmission (ALSN): in partnership with GILLIG and Cummins (CMI), the first buses equipped with Allison eGen Flex electric hybrid propulsion system have arrived at the Indianapolis Public Transportation Corporation

  • Allstate (ALL) announces May 2022 catastrophe losses and implemented auto rates

  • Alto Ingredients (ALTO) received a $22.7 million cash grant from the USDA's Biofuel Producer Program

  • Amazon (AMZN) aiming to expand into five additional countries, according to Business Insider

  • Assoc Banc-Corp (ASB) names Derek Meyer as its next CFO

  • BHP Group (BHP) to retain New South Wales Energy Coal

  • Block (SQ) will not renew its San Francisco office lease, according to Bloomberg

  • BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) increases quarterly dividend to $0.20/share from $0.19/share

  • Caterpillar's (CAT) relocation announce is part of broader trend of moving manufacturing to southern states, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • China Eastern Airlines (CEA) reports May passenger transportation capacity decreased by 78.08% yr/yr

  • Cigna (CI) authorizes $3.5 bln accelerated stock repurchase agreements

  • CVB Financial (CVBF) increases quarterly dividend 5.6% to $0.19/share

  • DarioHealth (DRIO) added to Solera Health's Cardiometabolic Network

  • Enviva (EVA) commemorates first shipment of sustainably sourced biomass from the port of Pascagoula

  • Exelixis (EXEL) and BioInvent establish exclusive option and license agreement to develop novel antibody-based immuno-oncology therapies

  • Ferrari (RACE) provides strategic plan for 2022-2026 at it Capital Markets Day

  • Humanigen (HGEN) entered into an agreement with PCI Pharma Services as part of preparations for commercialization in the United Kingdom

  • Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) announces in 8-K filing that Biogen (BIIB) terminated asset purchase agreement related to selective inhibitor of nuclear export compound KPT-350

  • Kenon Holdings (KEN) announces court approval of capital reduction and record date and other information relating to distribution to shareholders

  • Ladder Capital (LADR) increases quarterly dividend 10% to $0.22/share

  • M&T Bank (MTB) President and Chief Operating Officer Rich Gold announces retirement effective after the first quarter of 2023

  • McDonalds (MCD) will pay $1.3 bln to settle France tax cases, according to Bloomberg

  • Meta Platforms (META) provides commitments in French antitrust investigation related to advertising technology

  • Nam Tai Property (NTP) provides update on BVI court order

  • Parsons (PSN) was selected by the U.S. Defense Health Agency to provide health-related research and development and additional activities of interest for the Department of Defense and the Military Healthcare System

  • Redwire Corporation (RDW) provides updates with respect to certain of its pending litigation

  • Revlon (REV) takes step towards reorganizing capital structure as the company continues to execute against its strategic plan; voluntarily files for chapter 11 reorganization

  • Roche Hldg's (RHHBY) unit Genentech provides update on Alzheimer's prevention initiative study evaluating Crenezumab; study did not meet co-primary endpoints

  • Rockley Photonics (RKLY) CFO to step down; reaffirms FY22 revenue guidance

  • Safehold (SAFE) increases its quarterly dividend 4% to $0.177/share

  • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) approved $50 mln increase to the existing stock repurchase

  • SSR Mining (SSRM) announces normal course issuer bid

  • Tesla (TSLA) hikes car prices, according to Reuters

  • Toyota (TM) aiming to halt production in Japan in June & July, according to Reuters

  • Twitter (TWTR): Elon Musk will reiterate his desire to acquire Twitter at employee meeting today, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • USA Truck (USAK) announced the appointment of George Henry as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Wejo (WEJO) develops breakthrough autonomous vehicle platform

  • W.R. Berkley (WRB) increases annual cash dividend by 15.3%; declares special cash dividend of $0.50/share

  • Zeta Global (ZETA) names Williams-Sonoma exec, Jeanine Barnett Silberblatt, to the Zeta Board


  • M&A:

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) acquired Picosun Oy, a privately held semiconductor equipment company based in Espoo, Finland

  • Estee Lauder (EL): GR. SARANTIS S.A. announces the sale of its 49% participation in the Joint Venture with Estee Lauder for the price of 55.2 mln

  • Granite Construction (GVA) subsidiary acquires asphalt terminal in Bakersfield; terms not disclosed

  • Telus (TU): LifeWorks (TSX: LWRK) to be acquired by TELUS in C$2.9 billion transaction

  • Veritone (VERI) announces the acquisition of VocaliD; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Wabtec (WAB) has acquired Collins Aerospace's ARINC rail solutions business segment, a provider of intelligence-based rail dispatch and back-office solutions; financial terms were not disclosed


  • Syndicate:

  • Arcellx (ACLX) prices offering of 7.0 mln shares of common stock at $16.00 per share

  • GrafTech International (EAF) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Lion Electric (LEV) files for $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Platinum Group Metals (PLG) files for $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Realty Income (O) enters into sales agreement related to 120 mln share common stock offering


  • IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • No IPOs expected.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • BRSP +6.3%, RKLY +5%, DRIO +5%, HGEN +4%, ALSN +2.8%, LEV +2.1%, WRB +2%, LADR +1.4%, AFCG +1.3%, SSRM +1.1%


  • Gapping down:

  • ACLX -5.6%, PLG -5.4%, REV -4.4%, RACE -3.5%, QQQ -2.8%, IWM -2.6%, SPY -2.4%, WEJO -2.3%, DIA-1.9%, KPTI -1.3%, ATVI -1.3%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt $25

  • Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities

  • Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $185

  • AutoZone (AZO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $2420

  • Boeing (BA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $209

  • Dollar General (DG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $250

  • Republic Services (RSG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $147


  • Downgrades:

  • AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $8.50

  • J.M. Smucker (SJM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Consumer Edge Research

  • Philips (PHG) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS

  • Sally Beauty (SBH) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $12

  • Sanderson Farms (SAFM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Consumer Edge Research

  • Watsco (WSO) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $207


  • Others:

  • Bristow Group (VTOL) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $38

  • Enovis Corporation (ENOV) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $61

  • GH Research PLC (GHRS) initiated with a Buy at ROTH Capital; tgt $66

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $70

  • PropertyGuru (PGRU) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $8.40

  • Unity Software (U) initiated with a Sell at The Benchmark Company; tgt $27


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Housing Starts for May (Briefing.comConsensus 1730K; Prior 1724K)

  • 08:30 ET: Building Permits for May (Briefing.comConsensus 1800K; Prior 1819K)

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for June 11 (Briefing.comConsensus 215K; Prior 229K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for June 4 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1306K)

  • 08:30 ET: Philadelphia Fed Index for June (Briefing.comConsensus 5.0; Prior 2.6)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for June 11 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior +97 bcf)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Jun 13)

  • Afternoon: ORCL


  • Tuesday (Jun 14)

  • Morning: CNM

  • Afternoon: CXM


  • Thursday (Jun 16)

  • Morning: CMC JBL KR

  • Afternoon: ADBE



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note. Japan reported its widest trade deficit since January 2014. The Bank of Japan is meeting today and tomorrow, but it is not expected to make any policy changes. Australia's MI inflation expectations increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May, representing the highest increase since the series began in 2008. South Korea's President Yoon said that the economy is facing a "very grave" situation.

  • In economic data:

  • China's May Home Prices -0.1% yr/yr (last 0.7%)

  • Japan's May trade deficit JPY2.38 trln (expected deficit of JPY2.02 trln; last deficit of JPY842.8 bln)

  • South Korea's May Import Price Index 36.3% yr/yr (last 35.0%) and Export Price Index 23.5% yr/yr (last 21.4%)

  • Australia's May Employment Change 60,600 (expected 25,000; last 4,500) and full employment change 69,400 (last 93,300). May Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%; last 3.9%) and May Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 66.4%; last 66.4%). MI Inflation Expectations 6.7% (last 5.0%)

  • New Zealand's Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 3.0%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last 3.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.2%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6%

  • India's Sensex: -2.0%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.5% to 133.12

  • USD/CNH: +0.8% to 6.7213

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 78.07

Europe: DAX -2.9%, FTSE -2.4%, CAC -2.3%

Major European indices trade sharply lower across the board. The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25 bps to 1.25% while the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly increased its policy rate by 50 bps to -0.25%. European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that inflation may be more entrenched than policymakers previously thought. ECB officials reportedly want a new tool to deal with fragmentation in time for the July meeting.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q1 wages 2.7% yr/yr (last 1.5%) and labor cost index 3.2% yr/yr (last 1.9%)

  • Italy's May CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -0.1%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.9%; last 6.0%)

  • Spain's April trade deficit EUR6.40 bln (last deficit of EUR4.60 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -2.3%

  • Germany's DAX: -2.9%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -2.4%

  • France's CAC 40: -2.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -3.0%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.4%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.5% to 1.0396

  • GBP/USD: -0.7% to 1.2083

  • USD/CHF: -1.3% to 0.9808

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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures