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15/05/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 128 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Stock futures have a positive disposition this morning. Some M&A activity has boosted sentiment due to pleasing premiums, while concerns around the debt ceiling have eased somewhat after reports suggested that debt ceiling discussions have been productive. President Biden will meet with congressional leaders on debt ceiling on Tuesday and he is optimistic a deal will be reached, according to Reuters.

Treasury yields are mostly moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.01% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.46.

Energy complex futures trade up. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $70.47/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.4% to $2.47/mmbtu.

Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Empire State Manufacturing for May (prior 10.8)

  • 4:00 p.m. ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March (prior $71.0 billion)

In corporate news:

  • Oneok (OKE 60.00, -3.72, -5.8%): Magellan Midstream (MMP) to be acquired by ONEOK (OKE) for implied value of $67.50 per unit

  • Newmont Goldcorp (NEM 46.39, +0.45, +1.0%): to acquire Newcrest in approx. $19 billion cash and stock deal

  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT 154.52, +34.32, +28.6%): receives Positive Vote from FDA Advisory Committee Meeting for SRP-9001 gene therapy to treat duchenne muscular dystrophy

  • C3.ai (AI 19.87, +0.45, +2.3%): raises Q4 revenue guidance

  • H & R Block (HRB 28.98, -3.06, -9.6%): IRS mulling creation of government run tax preparation option, according to WSJ

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW 49.95, +1.01, +2.1%): upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

  • Meta Platforms (META 236.39, +2.58, +1.1%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital

  • Monday.com (MNDY 151.39, +20.29, +15.5%): beats by $0.43, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.2%, India's Sensex: +0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's April PPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.1%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 7.4%). April Machine Tool Orders -12.7% yr/yr (last -15.2%)

      • South Korea's April trade deficit $2.70 bln (expected deficit of $2.62 bln; last deficit of $4.63 bln). April Imports -13.3% yr/yr and Exports -14.3% yr/yr

      • India's April WPI Inflation -0.92% yr/yr (expected -0.20%; last 1.34%)

      • Australia's April Building Approvals -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 3.9%) and Private House Approvals -2.8% m/m (last 11.3%)


  • In news:

    • Japan's Prime Minister Kishida will meet with President Biden on Thursday.

    • Japanese utility providers are expected to raise their prices by up to 43% once the government allows price hikes to resume.

    • The People's Bank of China added some liquidity by rolling over CNY125 bln of maturing medium-term loans.

    • National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to announce at least one more rate hike.



  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Spain's IBEX (-0.1%) underperforms. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's March Industrial Production -4.1% m/m (expected -2.5%; last 1.5%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected 0.9%; last 2.0%)

      • Germany's April WPI -0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); -0.5% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 2.0%)

      • Swiss April PPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.2%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 2.1%)


  • In news:

    • European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that the ECB is in the final stages of its hiking cycle while policymaker Kazimir said that hikes may continue for longer than originally thought.

    • Turkish presidential election is headed for a run-off on May 18 after President Erdogan received just under 50.0% of the votes in this weekend's election.

    • The EU Commission's spring forecast raised the 2023 growth outlook to 1.1% from 0.9% while the outlook for 2024 was increased to 1.6% from 1.5%.

    • The inflation outlook was raised to 5.8% from 5.6% for 2023 while the forecast for 2024 was increased to 2.8% from 2.5%.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +15 @ 4,139

  • DJIA Futures: +120 @ 33,421

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +29 @ 13,369

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.5%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.8%, Hang Seng +1.8%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.43 @ 70.47

  • Nat Gas +0.046 @ 2.312

  • Gold -1.30 @ 2018.50

  • Silver -0.019 @ 24.135

  • Copper +0.0468 @ 3.7753


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Biohaven ( BHVN 11.32% ) reports Q1 (Mar) earnings; beats by $0.38; provides business update

  • Boston Omaha ( BOC 0.05% ) reports Q1 results

  • Bread Financial ( BFH 4.72% ) Provides performance update for April 2023; end-of-period credit card and other loans of $18.03 bln vs. $17.215 bln last year

  • C3.ai ( AI 12.26% ) raises Q4 revenue guidance

  • Citius Pharmaceuticals ( CTRX ) reports MarQ results

  • Edison ( EIX 2.01% ) reaffirms core EPS growth rate target of 5-7% for 2021-25

  • HilleVax ( HLVX 1.54% ) reports Q1 results; provides update

  • Monday.com ( MNDY 12.44% ) beats by $0.43, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Procaps Group ( PROC 0.00% ) reports Q4 results; preliminary Q1 results show a significant rebound from 4Q22

  • Tower Semi ( TSEM 0.69% ) beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line

  • TPG Inc. ( TPG 1.18% ) reports Q1 (Mar) results; TPG announces strategic acquisition of Angelo Gordon

News:

  • National Economic Council director Lael Brainard says debt ceiling discussions have been productive and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says both sides found some areas of agreement, according to CBS News

  • President Biden will meet with congressional leaders on debt ceiling on Tuesday and he is optimistic a deal will be reached, according to Reuters

  • Two Fed officials say policy is on track, but inflation remains too high, according to Reuters

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to provide update on debt ceiling X date within the next two weeks, according to Bloomberg

  • California budget deficit is $31.5 bln, which was larger than expected, according to The Hill

  • Border crossings drop 50% since the end of Title 42, according to Reuters

  • G7 leaders to target Russian energy with new sanctions, according to Reuters

  • US and allies will increase pressure on China, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • US regulators urged recall of 67 million air bag inflators, according to Bloomberg

  • White House issues statement from President Joe Biden on United Steelworkers vote in Fort Valley, GA

  • Turkey election will be headed for a runoff

  • Alamos ( AGI 2.10% ) continues to extend high-grade gold mineralization beyond mineral reserves and resources at Puerto Del Aire, and provides regional exploration update at Mulatos

  • Amazon ( AMZN 0.48% ) aiming to overhaul its delivery system, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Analog Devices ( ADI 0.08% ) to invest 630 million in next generation semiconductor R&D and manufacturing facility in Limerick

  • ANI Pharma ( ANIP 2.45% ) announces FDA approval and commercialization of two ANDAs with CGT exclusivity

  • Avantor ( AVTR 0.59% ) announces CFO Thomas Szlosek will depart August 2, 2023 to pursue other opportunities; reaffirms FY23 guidance

  • Blackrock ( BLK 0.35% ) CEO Larry Fink has no immediate plans to retire, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • British American Tobacco ( BTI 1.07% ) appoints Tadeu Marroco as CEO

  • Discover Financial Services ( DFS 0.64% ) reports April net principal charge off rate of 3.56% vs 3.13% in March and 3.40% in Feb

  • Docebo ( DCBO 1.30% ) announces that the Toronto Stock Exchange has approved its notice of intention to make a normal course issuer bid for a portion of its common shares

  • Envision ( KKR 0.12% ) healthcare reaches comprehensive restructuring agreement with lenders

  • Ero Copper ( ERO 3.08% ) Files Technical Report for the Xavantina Operations

  • Exxon ( XOM 0.75% ) executives are preparing to move from Irving, TX to headquarters in Spring, TX where a new executive wing under construction, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Fisker ( FSR 0.08% ) enters next phase of production for electric Fisker Ocean

  • Ford ( F 0.17% ) to eliminate 1300 jobs in China, according to Bloomberg

  • Fulcrum Therapeutics ( FULC 1.53% ) names Alex Sapir as CEO

  • Gracell Biotechnologies ( GRCL 2.94% ) Initiates Investigational Study Evaluating GC012F for Treatment of Refractory Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

  • H & R Block ( HRB 2.28% ): IRS mulling creation of government run tax preparation option, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Illumina ( ILMN 1.63% ): Leading Proxy Advisory Firm ISS Recommends Illumina Shareholders Vote "FOR" Eight of Illumina's Highly Qualified Director Nominees

  • Larimar Therapeutics ( LRMR 17.98% ) announces preliminary top-line data from the 25 mg cohort of its Phase 2, four-week, placebo-controlled, dose exploration trial of CTI-1601 in participants with Friedreich's ataxia

  • MediciNova ( MNOV 0.00% ) receives a notice of intention to grant for a new patent covering MN-166 (ibudilast) for patients with microorganism infection in Europe

  • Merck ( MRK 0.36% ) to present extensive new research demonstrating significant progress in the treatment of certain earlier stage cancers and in advancing broad oncology pipeline at 2023 ASCO Annual Meeting

  • Mizuho Financial ( MFG 0.17% ) discloses revision of the corporate identity and launch of the new medium-term business plan

  • POINT Biopharma ( PNT 8.89% ) makes strategic investment in commercial-scale alpha-emitting isotope manufacturer

  • SandRidge Energy ( SD 11.19% ) announces one-time $2.00 per share dividend, a $75 million stock repurchase program, and an on-going planned quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share planned to commence in August 2023

  • Sarepta Therapeutics ( SRPT 23.72% ) receives Positive Vote from FDA Advisory Committee Meeting for SRP-9001 gene therapy to treat duchenne muscular dystrophy

  • Shake Shack ( SHAK 5.17% ): Engaged Capital plans proxy battle against Shake Shack, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • uniQure ( QURE 0.55% ) has entered into a definitive agreement to sell a portion of the royalty rights due to uniQure from CSL Behring from the net sales of HEMGENIX to HealthCare Royalty and Sagard Healthcare for a gross purchase price of up to $400 mln in cash

  • Vermilion Energy ( VET 0.43% ) provides update on the production impact from Alberta wildfires

  • World Wrestling ( WWE 0.90% ) announces that it entered into privately-negotiated agreements with certain investors to exchange an aggregate of 6.9 mln shares of its Class A common stock and $3.9 mln in cash for $171.0 mln principal amount of its outstanding 3.375% Convertible Senior Notes due 2023

M&A:

  • Apollo Global Management ( APO 0.46% ) issues statement of intention not to make an offer for John Wood Group PLC (WDGJF)

  • Magellan Midstream ( MMP 15.14% ) to be acquired by ONEOK (OKE) for implied value of $67.50 per unit

  • Mondee Holdings ( MOND 3.01% ) acquires Interep, strengthening its Brazilian and Latin American footprint

  • Mondee Holdings ( MOND 3.01% ) to acquire travel provider Consolid Mexico Holding, S.A.P.I. de C.V.; financial terms not disclosed

  • NeoGames ( NGMS 113.40% ) to be acquired by Aristocrat for $29.50 per share in cash

  • Newmont Goldcorp ( NEM 1.50% ) acquires Newcrest

  • Seagen ( SGEN 0.47% ): Pfizer (PFE) discloses terms update for merger with SGEN

  • Western Digital ( WDC 6.01% ): Kioxia and Western Digital aiming to speed up merger discussions, according to Reuters

Syndicate:

  • Genelux ( GNLX 1.33% ) announces a private placement of 1,665,247 shares of the Company's common stock at a price of $20.00/share, for gross proceeds of ~$33 mln

  • HilleVax ( HLVX 1.54% ) files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Jefferies ( JEF 0.37% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Marathon Petroleum ( MPC 0.59% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • NV5 Global ( NVEE 0.49% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Sequans Communications ( SQNS 2.13% ) files for 11,683,493 ADS offering by selling shareholders, relates to registration rights agreement

  • Surmodics ( SRDX 1.40% ) files $200 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • Veru ( VERU 3.07% ) files for 5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholder

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • NGMS +119.8%, SD +9.6%, MMP +8.3%, VERU +6.1%, PROC +3.2%, MNOV +1.9%, BTI +0.9%, BHVN +0.8%, BOC +0.7%


  • Gapping down:

    • TUR -7.4%, ALTI -5.6%, OKE -4.5%, SRDX -0.7%, DFS -0.5%, EIX -0.5%, JEF -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Albemarle (ALB) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $288

    • BorgWarner (BWA) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $50

    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $63

    • DuPont (DD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $80

    • Ellington Financial (EFC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $13.75

    • LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $12

    • Meta Platforms (META) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt raised to $320

    • Nevro (NVRO) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $40

    • PlayAGS (AGS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $10

    • Sabre (SABR) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $3.50

    • Sun Life (SLF) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

    • Tapestry (TPR) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt raised to $55

    • Washington Trust (WASH) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $26


  • Downgrades:

    • Alphabet A (GOOGL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $125

    • Camden Property (CPT) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Catalent (CTLT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $29

    • CEMEX S.A. (CX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $7.20

    • Essex Property (ESS) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $204

    • First Solar (FSLR) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Invitae (NVTA) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

    • LifeStance Health Group (LFST) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $9

    • Mid-America Aptmt (MAA) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $137

    • Park National (PRK) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $103

    • Silk Road Medical (SILK) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $27

    • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt lowered to $2.50

    • UDR (UDR) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $71


  • Others:

    • AerCap (AER) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $71

    • Air Lease (AL) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $41

    • FactSet (FDS) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $424

    • WisdomTree (WT) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $9


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Empire State Manufacturing for May (Briefing.com Consensus -1.8; Prior 10.8)

  • 16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior $71.0B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (May 15)

    • Morning: AZUL CTLT MNDY SFL TSEM TPG

    • Afternoon: NVTS


  • Tuesday (May 16)

    • Morning: BIDU HD HUYA ONON PSFE SE SSYS TME

    • Afternoon: AGYS CPRT DOCS KEYS KD NXGN


  • Wednesday (May 17)

    • Morning: DT JACK RSKD TGT TJX TGI WKME WIX

    • Afternoon: BOOT CSCO DLO SQM STNE SNPS TTWO VSAT ZTO


  • Thursday (May 18)

    • Morning: WMS BABA BBWI BRC GOOS CSIQ DOLE EXP GRAB BEKE MNRO WMT

    • Afternoon: AMAT DXC FTCH FLO GLOB ROST


  • Friday (May 19)

    • Morning: DE FL RBC


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.8%, Hang Seng +1.8%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note. Japan's Prime Minister Kishida will meet with President Biden on Thursday. Japanese utility providers are expected to raise their prices by up to 43% once the government allows price hikes to resume. National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to announce at least one more rate hike.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's April PPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.1%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 7.4%). April Machine Tool Orders -12.7% yr/yr (last -15.2%)

    • South Korea's April trade deficit $2.70 bln (expected deficit of $2.62 bln; last deficit of $4.63 bln). April Imports -13.3% yr/yr and Exports -14.3% yr/yr

    • India's April WPI Inflation -0.92% yr/yr (expected -0.20%; last 1.34%)

    • Australia's April Building Approvals -0.1% m/m, as expected (last 3.9%) and Private House Approvals -2.8% m/m (last 11.3%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.8%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.8%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +1.2%

  • India's Sensex: +0.5%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 136.12

  • USD/CNH: -0.2% to 6.9598

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.26

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.5%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Spain's IBEX (-0.1%) underperforms. European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that the ECB is in the final stages of its hiking cycle while policymaker Kazimir said that hikes may continue for longer than originally thought. Turkish presidential election is headed for a run-off on May 18 after President Erdogan received just under 50.0% of the votes in this weekend's election. The EU Commission's spring forecast raised the 2023 growth outlook to 1.1% from 0.9% while the outlook for 2024 was increased to 1.6% from 1.5%. The inflation outlook was raised to 5.8% from 5.6% for 2023 while the forecast for 2024 was increased to 2.8% from 2.5%.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's March Industrial Production -4.1% m/m (expected -2.5%; last 1.5%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected 0.9%; last 2.0%)

    • Germany's April WPI -0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); -0.5% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 2.0%)

    • Swiss April PPI 0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.2%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 2.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.5%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.0875

  • GBP/USD: +0.5% to 1.2506

  • USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.8964


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