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14/10/22 Briefing

Updated: Oct 17


The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in-line fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 9 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

The equity futures market has been shifty this morning, rallying initially to press reports suggesting British Prime Minister Truss will scale back her fiscal stimulus plan at a press conference today at 9:00 a.m. ET. On a related note, it has been confirmed that Finance Minister Kwarteng has been dismissed after just 38 days in office. 

The futures for the major indices have subsequently pulled back, however, as questions about the credibility/sustainability of yesterday's rally abound. 

Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) posted better-than-expected results, but Morgan Stanley (MS) disappointed. Separately, Albertsons (ACI) is going to acquired by Kroger (KR) for $34.10/share in cash.

Treasury yields are pulling back this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.42% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.88%.

Market participants will receive the September Retail Sales (Briefing.comconsensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.comconsensus 0.0%; prior -0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Other data out this morning includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: September Import Prices (prior -1.0%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior -1.0%), September Export Prices (prior -1.6%), and September Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -1.8%)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: August Business Inventories (Briefing.comconsensus 0.9%; prior 0.6%) and preliminary October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (Briefing.comconsensus 58.6; prior 58.6)

In corporate news:

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM 111.53, +2.16, +1.97%): beats by $0.27, beats on revs; Expect 4Q22 net interest income of ~$19B and FY2022 of ~$66B, market dependent

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 77.45, -1.87, -2.36%): misses by $0.04, misses on revs

  • Wells Fargo (WFC 42.92, +0.54, +1.27%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 514.73, +4.82, +0.95%): beats by $0.35, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line

  • PNC (PNC 154.52, +3.05, +2.01%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; issues downside guidance for Q4 (Dec)

  • Boeing (BA 134.09, +1.69, +1.28%): United (UAL) aiming to purchase 100 widebody jets, according to Bloomberg

  • Albertsons (ACI 27.90, -0.73, -2.55%): to be acquired by Kroger (KR); ACI shareholders to receive total consideration of $34.10/share; cash component of the $34.10 per share consideration will be reduced by the per share amount of the special cash dividend, which is expected to be approximately $6.85 per share

  • McDonald's (MCD 247.62, +0.87, +0.35%): raises quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.52 per share

  • Beyond Meat (BYND 13.65, -1.13, -7.65%): lowers outlook; cuts workforce; targeting cash flow positive in 2H23; disclosed Philip E. Hardin notified the Company that he is stepping down as the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective October 12, 2022 to pursue another opportunity

  • Delta (DAL 31.23, +0.85, +2.80%): Cowen upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform 

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +3.3% (-0.1% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2% (-6.5% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.6% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.2% (-0.5% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +2.3% (-0.9% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.7% (-0.4% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • China's September CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.1%); 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.5%). September PPI 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 2.3%)

  • South Korea's September Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 2.5%). September Import Price Index 24.1% yr/yr (last 22.9%) and Export Price Index 15.2% yr/yr (last 13.0%)

  • India's September WPI Inflation 10.70% (expected 11.50%; last 12.41%)

  • Singapore's Q3 GDP 1.5% qtr/qtr (last -0.2%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 4.5%)

  • New Zealand's September Business NZ PMI 52.0 (expected 54.8)

  • In news:

  • Japan may reportedly lift its cap on the lifespan of nuclear reactors.

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that CPI is expected below 2.0% in 2023 and that now is not the appropriate time to raise rates.

  • China Securities Journal speculated that the yuan will not depreciate in the medium to long term and that authorities have room to stabilize markets.

  • Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +1.4% (+0.7% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +1.4% (+2.0% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4% (-0.7% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +1.7% (+1.9% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.5% (+1.0% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +1.6% (+0.4% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's August trade deficit EUR50.90 bln (last deficit of EUR33.90 bln)

  • Germany's September WPI 1.6% m/m (last 0.1%); 19.9% yr/yr (last 18.9%)

  • France's September CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.5%); 5.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.9%)

  • Spain's September CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 0.3%); 8.9% yr/yr (expected 9.0%; last 10.5%)

  • In news:

  • The U.K.'s 10-yr Gilt yield is down another 23 bps to 3.96% amid reports that British Prime Minister Truss will reverse her decision, allowing for the increase to the corporate tax rate.

  • In addition, Chancellor Kwarteng has been dismissed after just 38 days in office.

  • The Bank of England's emergency buying scheme is set to end today. Germany's economy ministry expects that a recession began in Q3 and will last for three quarters.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -5 @ 3,665

  • DJIA Futures: +20 @ 30,059

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -41 @ 10,993

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE +1.4%, CAC +1.7%

  • Asia: Nikkei +3.3%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai Composite +1.8%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -2.01 @ 87.10

  • Nat Gas  -0.092 @ 6.649

  • Gold -14.60 @ 1662.40

  • Silver -0.281  @ 18.637

  • Copper -0.0070 @ 3.4328

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance:

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) lowers outlook; cuts workforce; targeting cash flow positive in 2H23

  • First Republic Bank (FRC) beats by $0.03

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beats by $0.27, beats on revs

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) misses by $0.04, misses on revs

  • PNC (PNC) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; sees Q4 revs below consensus

  • Redwood Trust (RWT) provides prelim Q3 financial results; GAAP book value per share of $10.15-10.25, representing 4.9-5.8% drop yr/yr

  • Ring Energy (REI) revises its Q4 guidance and provides FY23 guidance

  • UnitedHealth (UNH) beats by $0.35, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; sees Q4 revs above consensus

  • Wash. Federal (WAFD) beats by $0.16, beats on revs (single estimate)

  • Wells Fargo (WFC) beats by $0.21, beats on revs

  • News:

  • UK Prime Minister Liz Truss plans to reverse parts of economic plan later today, according to Bloomberg

  • UK Finance Minister Kwarteng has been sacked, CNBC

  • EMA highlights from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) October meeting

  • White House releases plan to lower health care and prescription drug costs

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is being sued again for sexual harassment, sexual battery, and gender discrimination, according to TechCrunch

  • Alcoa (AA) lobbying White House to block American imports of Russian aluminum, according to Reuters

  • Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA): CHMP recommends approval of Atara Biotherapeutics' Ebvallo for the treatment of epstein-barr virus-positive post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease

  • Avient (AVNT) increases its quarterly dividend by 4.2% to $0.2475/share

  • Bavarian Nordic A/S (BVNRY) announced that the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the Swiss Armed Forces have jointly ordered 100,000 doses of MVA-BN smallpox and monkeypox vaccine

  • BeiGene (BGNE) receives Positive CHMP Opinion for BRUKINSA

  • Berkshire Hills Bancorp's (BHLB) CFO resigned effective October 7, 2022 to pursue other career interests; company appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer as interim CFO

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) also disclosed Philip E. Hardin notified the Company that he is stepping down as the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective October 12, 2022 to pursue another opportunity

  • BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) Presents Updated Positive Data from its BBP-812 Canavan Disease Gene Therapy Program at the 51st Annual Meeting of the Child Neurology Society

  • Caterpillar (CAT) waives policy requiring Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby, to retire at age 65; He agrees to remain in his position beyond February 2023, when he turns 65

  • Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) CEO to retire Jan 1; appints Ian Craig Garca as CEO

  • Danone (DANOY) announces it plans to transfer the effective control of its EDP business in Russia

  • Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) Announces Positive 6-Month Interim Results from the ARCH Open Label Study of EDG-5506 in Adults with Becker Muscular Dystrophy

  • Eneti (NETI) related party Scorpio Holdings purchases 298,657 shares on the open market

  • Hudbay Minerals (HBM) appoints Eugene Lei as CFO

  • Invivyd (IVVD) CFO Jane Pritchett Henderson to transition from the company to pursue other opportunities; appoints Fred Driscoll as interim CFO; also announced headcount changes to align resources to key programs

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO warns of higher rates and inflation risk, according to Reuters

  • Kezar Life Sciences (KZR) to Present Complete Results from the Phase 2 MISSION Trial of Zetomipzomib in Patients with Lupus Nephritis at the American Society of Nephrology's Kidney Week 2022 Annual Meeting

  • McDonald's (MCD) raises quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.52 per share

  • Meta Platforms (META) asking for judge to dismiss FTC lawsuit related to Within Unlimited deal, according to Reuters

  • Northwest Natural (NWN) increases its quarterly dividend 0.5% to $0.485/share

  • Novartis AG (NVS) receives positive CHMP opinion for Pluvicto for patients with progressive, PSMA-positive metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

  • Oceaneering Intl's (OII) Subsea Robotics segment won multiple contracts during Q3, totaling an anticipated $300 mln

  • Reata Pharmaceuticals (RETA): FDA does not plan to hold an advisory committee meeting to discuss the New Drug Application for omaveloxolone for the treatment of patients with Friedreich's ataxia

  • Regeneron Pharma (REGN) announces that the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use has adopted a positive opinion for Libtayo to treat advanced cervical cancer

  • Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) provides asset update

  • SciPlay (SCPL) announces appointment of Jim Bombassei as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary, effective December 1, 2022

  • Takeda Pharma (TAK) receives positive CHMP opinion recommending approval of dengue vaccine candidate in EU and dengue-endemic countries

  • Transocean (RIG) issues quarterly Fleet Status Report

  • Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) Provides Regulatory Update on its Sparsentan Program for IgA Nephropathy

  • Tricon Residential (TCN) announces normal course issuer bid; intends to acquire up to 2.5 mln Common Shares in the 12-month period commencing October 18, 2022and ending on October 17, 2023

  • United (UAL) aiming to purchase 100 widebody jets, according to Bloomberg

  • Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) to strengthen regional development competence for autonomous driving in China through joint venture between CARIAD and Horizon Robotics

  • Weatherford (WFRD) enters into a strategic agreement with Kwantis, an advanced drilling analytics company, to deliver drilling performance management for clients

  • M&A:

  • Albertsons (ACI) and Kroger (KR) announce merger agreement; ACI shareholders to receive total consideration of $34.10/share

  • CoStar Group (CSGP) acquires Fairmas Benchmarking, a German hospitality benchmarking product; financial details not disclosed

  • Lincoln Electric (LECO) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Fori Automation

  • Mizuho (MFG) interested in acquiring Credit Suisse' (CS) securitized products unit, according toBloomberg

  • Nutanix (NTNX) is considering sale, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • OceanTech Acquisitions I Corp.(OTEC) previously announced merger with Captura Biopharma has been terminated by mutual agreement of all relevant parties

  • Paycor (PYCR) acquires Talenya, an AI-driven recruiting platform that automatically sources quality talent faster and at a significantly lower cost; no financial terms disclosed

  • SportsTek Acquisition Corp. (SPTK) has entered into a non-binding letter of intent with Metavisio, with respect to a proposed business combination transaction

  • Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ): SailingStone intends to vote AGAINST the Plan of Arrangement between Turquoise Hill and Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Twitter (TWTR): Elon Musk is being investigated over Twitter acquisition proposal, according to Reuters

  • VAALCO Energy (EGY) Announces the Closing of the Strategic Business Combination With TransGlobe Energy

  • Verano Holdings Corp. (VRNOF) terminated the arrangement agreement to acquire Goodness Growth Holdings

  • Verona Pharma (VRNA) Announces Analyses Demonstrating Ensifentrine Reduced Exacerbation Rates Across Subgroups in Phase 3 ENHANCE-2 Trial for COPD

  • Syndicate

  • Howard Hughes (HHC): Pershing Square commenced tender offer of up to 6.34 mln shares of HHC

  • IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • WLK +5.5%, BBIO +5%, RWT +4.4%, IVVD +3.2%, MLKN +3.1%, ADC +2.6%, EWTX +2.2%, UNH +1.4%, OII +1.2%, SAND +0.6%, MWA +0.5%

  • Gapping down:

  • BYND -7.6%, TVTX -5.1%, BHLB -2.1%, REI -1.4%, TRQ -1.2%, CAT -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AVANGRID (AGR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $39

  • Carlisle Cos (CSL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $363

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen; tgt $54

  • Downgrades:

  • Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $5

  • Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $65

  • Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $29

  • Others:

  • AbbVie (ABBV) named Catalyst driven idea at Morgan Stanley

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) placed on 90-day Positive Catalyst Watch at Citigroup

  • Amprius Technologies (AMPX) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $14

  • AppLovin (APP) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $26

  • Blue Owl Capital (OWL) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $16

  • Cutera (CUTR) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $78

  • Establishment Labs (ESTA) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $90

  • Glaukos (GKOS) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $69

  • Micron (MU) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $70

  • Origin Materials (ORGN) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $7

  • ProKidney Corp. (PROK) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $16

  • STAAR Surgical (STAA) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $91

  • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $79

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.2%; Prior 0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-Auto for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus 0.0%; Prior -0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Import Prices for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -1.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Import Prices ex-oil for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -0.2%)

  • 08:30 ET: Export Prices for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -1.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: Export Prices ex-Ag for Sep (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -1.8%)

  • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories for Aug (Briefing.comConsensus 0.9%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim for Oct (Briefing.comConsensus 58.6; Prior 58.6)

  • Earnings

  • Tuesday (Oct 11)

  • Morning: AZZ

  • Afternoon:  PEP

  • Wednesday (Oct 12)

  • Afternoon:  DCT

  • Thursday (Oct 13)

  • Morning: BLK CMC DAL DPZ FAST PGR TSM WBA

  • Friday (Oct 14)  

  • Morning:  C FRC JPM MS PNC USB UNH WFC


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +3.3%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai Composite +1.8%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan may reportedly lift its cap on the lifespan of nuclear reactors. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that CPI is expected below 2.0% in 2023 and that now is not the appropriate time to raise rates. China Securities Journal speculated that the yuan will not depreciate in the medium to long term and that authorities have room to stabilize markets.

  • In economic data:

  • China's September CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.1%); 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.5%). September PPI 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 2.3%)

  • South Korea's September Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 2.5%). September Import Price Index 24.1% yr/yr (last 22.9%) and Export Price Index 15.2% yr/yr (last 13.0%)

  • India's September WPI Inflation 10.70% (expected 11.50%; last 12.41%)

  • Singapore's Q3 GDP 1.5% qtr/qtr (last -0.2%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 4.5%)

  • New Zealand's September Business NZ PMI 52.0 (expected 54.8)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +3.3% (-0.1% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2% (-6.5% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.6% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +1.2% (-0.5% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +2.3% (-0.9% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.7% (-0.4% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 147.66

  • USD/CNH: +0.5% to 7.2102 

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.21

Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE +1.4%, CAC +1.7%

Major European indices trade in the green. The U.K.'s 10-yr Gilt yield is down another 23 bps to 3.96% amid reports that British Prime Minister Truss will reverse her decision, allowing for the increase to the corporate tax rate. In addition, Chancellor Kwarteng is expected to be dismissed after just 38 days in office. The Bank of England's emergency buying scheme is set to end today. Germany's economy ministry expects that a recession began in Q3 and will last for three quarters.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's August trade deficit EUR50.90 bln (last deficit of EUR33.90 bln)

  • Germany's September WPI 1.6% m/m (last 0.1%); 19.9% yr/yr (last 18.9%)

  • France's September CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.5%); 5.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.9%)

  • Spain's September CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 0.3%); 8.9% yr/yr (expected 9.0%; last 10.5%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +1.4% (+0.7% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +1.4% (+2.0% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4% (-0.7% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: +1.7% (+1.9% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.5% (+1.0% week-to-date) 

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +1.6% (+0.4% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.4% to 0.9736

  • GBP/USD: -0.8% to 1.1242

  • USD/CHF: +0.3% to 1.0023


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