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14/09/23 Briefing

T

he S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in-line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are flat and are trading in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Stock futures indicate a flattish open following yesterday's retreat in the cash market, as participants await the Consumer Price Index report.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% with refinance applications dropping 5.0% and purchase applications increasing 1.0%.

The August Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other economic data include: the Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET and the August Treasury budget at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is up three basis point to 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.31%.

WTI crude oil futures are up 0.5% to $89.30/bbl.

In corporate news:

  • Oracle (ORCL 109.21, -0.40, -0.4%): downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan

  • Ford (F 12.63, +0.18, +1.5%) and General Motors (GM 33.61, +0.14, +0.4%): trading up after UBS starts coverage with Buy ratings

  • Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT 18.70, +3.41, +22.3%): Reaches FDA Alignment on Pivotal Phase 2 Trial Design for RP-A501 in Danon Disease; prices offering of 7,812,500 shares of its common stock at $16.00 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 3,126,955 shares of common stock at $15.99 per pre-funded warrant

  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE 16.60, -0.68, -3.9%): lower Q3 outlook

  • T-Mobile US (TMUS 140.57, +0.46, +0.3%): to acquire spectrum in the 600 MHz band from Comcast (CMCSA) for total cash consideration of $1.2-3.3 bln

  • Novo Nordisk (NVO 191.17, -5.58, -2.8%): conducts a two-for-one stock split

  • American Airlines (AAL 13.70, -0.41, -2.9%): lowers Q3 adj EPS guidance, expects capacity to be at the high end of its initial guidance, revs expected to be approximately flat to prior expectations

  • Moderna (MRNA 109.60, +4.36, +4.1%): expands the field of MRNA medicine with positive clinical results across cancer rare disease and infectious disease

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%, India's Sensex: +0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's August PPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.1%); 3.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). Q3 BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 5.4 (expected 0.2; last -0.4). September Reuters Tankan Index 4 (last 12)

  • South Korea's August Import Price Index -9.0% yr/yr (last -13.6%) and Export Price Index -7.9% yr/yr (last -12.8%). August Unemployment Rate 2.4% (last 2.8%)

  • Hong Kong's Q2 Industrial Production 2.6% yr/yr (last 3.8%)

  • New Zealand's August FPI 0.5% m/m (last -0.5%)


  • In news:

  • Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated that the Bank of Japan is expected to "fulfill its responsibility" regarding monetary policy.

  • Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank now expects that the BoJ will end its yield curve control policy in October and exit negative rates in January.

  • Developer Country Garden was able to restructure more yuan-denominated debt.

  • China's Vice Premier Guoqing said that his country is willing to deepen strategic ties with Russia.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.9%, Germany's DAX: -0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%, France's CAC 40: -0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Industrial Production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.4%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last -1.1%)

  • U.K.'s July GDP -0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.5%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.9%). July Construction Output -0.5% m/m, as expected (last 1.6%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.6%). July Industrial Production -0.7% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 1.8%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.7%). July Manufacturing Production -0.8% m/m (expected -1.0%; last 2.4%); 3.0% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 3.1%). July trade deficit GBP14.06 bln (expected GBP16.00 bln; last GBP15.46 bln)

  • Italy's Q2 Unemployment Rate 7.6% (expected 8.0%; last 7.9%)


  • In news:

  • U.K.'s GDP in July contracted at its fastest monthly pace since December.

  • There is renewed speculation that the European Central Bank will announce another 25-bps rate hike tomorrow after Reuters reported that the ECB's forecast will show expectations for inflation to remain above 3.0% in 2024.

  • The central bank is also expected to lower its growth expectations for 2023 and 2024.

  • Bank of France expects Q3 growth in France between 0.1-0.2% qtr/qtr.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +1 @ 4,463

  • DJIA Futures: -15 @ 34,631

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +6 @ 15,296

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.9%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.43 @ 89.27

  • Nat Gas +0.006 @ 2.749

  • Gold -0.55 @ 1934.55

  • Silver -0.212 @ 23.190

  • Copper -0.0003 @ 3.7917


Earnings/Guidance:

  • American Airlines ( AAL 0.00% ) lowers Q3 adj EPS guidance, expects capacity to be at the high end of its initial guidance, revs expected to be approximately flat to prior expectations

  • Apartment Investment & Mgmt ( AIV 2.26% ) in presentation slides guides 2023 metrics

  • Burford Capital ( BUR 1.55% ) reports Q2 results

  • CECO Environ ( CECO 0.00% ) acquires Kemco Systems; raises FY23 revs outlook

  • Evolution Petroleum ( EPM 18.87% ) misses by $0.06 (two ests), misses on revs (two ests)

  • InnovAge ( INNV 0.00% ) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs in-line

  • Mosaic ( MOS 0.46% ) releases July and August revenue and sales volumes

  • REV Group ( REVG 8.62% ) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; raises FY23 revs above consensus

  • Spirit Airlines ( SAVE 6.25% ) lower Q3 outlook

  • Sunstone Hotel ( SHO 2.37% ) generated total portfolio RevPAR growth of 1.4% in August; Q3 QTD RevPAR down 0.6% yr/yr; Maui fire impact to result in 75-100 bps of lower RevPAR growth due to lower travel volumes

  • United Comm Banks ( UCBI 1.79% ) expects an increase in third quarter charge-offs arising from an 8.7% participation in a $218.5 million nationally syndicated credit led by First Horizon Bank to a wholesale oil distributor

  • U.S. Bancorp ( USB 5.00% ) in presentation slides guides NII, reaffirms revenue outlook

News:

  • The European Central Bank expecting inflation to stay above 3% in 2024, bolstering case for interest rate hike on Thursday, according to Reuters

  • White House releases 'Biden Cancer Moonshot' updates including $240 million in additional investment this year

  • 4D Molecular Therapeutics ( FDMT 0.00% ) names Uneek Mehra as Chief Financial & Business Officer

  • AllianceBernstein ( AB 1.09% ) announces that assets under management decreased to $694 bln during August 2023 from $704 bln at the end of July

  • Alnylam Pharma ( ALNY 3.87% ) halted today; FDA Advisory Committee to review supplemental New Drug Application for patisiran for the treatment of the cardiomyopathy of ATTR amyloidosis

  • Amazon's ( AMZN 0.00% ) contract delivery drivers to receive higher pay, according to CNBC

  • AN2 Therapeutics ( ANTX 0.00% ) commences Phase 3 Part of Phase 2/3 Clinical Trial Evaluating Epetraborole for Treatment-Refractory Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) Lung Disease

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ): China pushes back against reports that officials were told to stop using Apple products, according to Reuters

  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt ( APAM 2.21% ) reports that its August 2023 assets under management totaled $142.8 bln

  • Blackstone ( BX 0.19% ) announces the integration of its market-leading corporate credit, asset-based finance, and insurance groups into a single new unit, Blackstone Credit & Insurance

  • Calumet Specialty Products ( CLMT 0.00% ) CFO Vincent Donargo stepping down, effective December 31; David Lunin to serve as CFO Designate, effective immediately

  • Eaton ( ETN 2.85% ) invests $150 million to increase manufacturing of vital electrical infrastructure for North American businesses and communities

  • Ecovyst ( ECVT 1.45% ) Announces Planned Expansion of Kansas City, KS Silica Catalyst Production Capability

  • Evolution Petroleum ( EPM 18.87% ) and PEDEVCO (PED) enter into strategic partnership to jointly develop PEDEVCO's Chaveroo Field in the Permian Basin

  • Ford ( F 1.53% ) increases production of hybrid F-150, according to Bloomberg

  • Ford ( F 1.53% ) detailed F-150 trucks updates - plans to double the mix of hybrid trucks manufactured for the 2024 model year

  • Franklin Resources ( BEN 0.77% ) reports preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.42 trillion at August 31, 2023, compared to $1.45 trillion at July 31, 2023

  • Gilat Satellite ( GILT 0.00% ) received a contract for satellite network modernization at Ethio Telecom of Ethiopia

  • Hain Celestial ( HAIN 0.00% ) announces growth strategy to drive profitability; company launches formal restructuring program targeting annualized savings of $130-$150 million by FY27

  • Hertz Global ( HTZ 0.00% ) COO/President steps down; Search for new COO underway

  • HireRight Holdings ( HRT 11.54% ) authorizes additional $25 million share repurchase program

  • Invesco ( IVZ 1.61% ) reports August 31, 2023 assets under management of $1,527.7 billion, a decrease of 2.7% versus previous month-end

  • Jacobs Engineering ( J 0.14% ) selected to operate and maintain The City of Waterbury, Connecticut's 38 million gallon-per-day (mgd) conventional surface water treatment plant

  • Joint Corp ( JYNT 0.00% ) disclosed that JP Morgan Chase waived, on a one-time only basis, a default that has occurred under the Credit Agreement

  • Lazard ( LAZ 0.81% ) reports August AUM of 237.3 bln, down from $244.4 bln in July

  • Legacy Housing ( LEGH 0.00% ) announced that Jeff Fiedelman has joined the Company as Chief Financial Officer

  • Lockheed Martin ( LMT 0.76% ) awarded $841 mln U.S. Navy contract modification

  • Mainz Biomed's ( MYNZ 0.00% ) ColoFuture Study, evaluating its novel mRNA Biomarkers, reports groundbreaking topline results demonstrating sensitivity for colorectal cancer of 94% with specificity of 97% and advanced adenoma sensitivity of 81%

  • MGM Resorts ( MGM 1.24% ) releases statement on cybersecurity issue

  • Moderna ( MRNA 0.00% ) expands the field of MRNA medicine with positive clinical results across cancer, rare disease, and infectious disease

  • MorphoSys ( MOR 0.00% ) receives FDA Fast Track designation for tulmimetostat in endometrial cancer

  • New Found Gold Corp ( NFGC 3.37% ) intercepts 47 g/t Au over 10.55M & 115 g/t Au over 4.10M at Iceberg East; defines near-surface, high-grade segment of Iceberg-Iceberg East covering 570M strike

  • Northrop Grumman ( NOC 0.53% ) awarded $458 mln U.S. Navy contract

  • Novo Nordisk ( NVO 2.09% ) conducts a two-for-one stock split

  • Ocular Therapeutix ( OCUL 0.00% ) submitted a request for a Special Protocol Assessment for the first of the Company's two planned OTX-TKI pivotal trials

  • Premier ( PINC 0.00% ) promotes Leigh Anderson to COO, effective immediately

  • Restaurant Brands Int'l ( QSR 1.18% ) announces renewal of normal course issuer bid

  • Rocket Lab USA ( RKLB 0.00% ) signs contract with Leidos to launch four Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron (HASTE) missions

  • Rocket Pharmaceuticals ( RCKT 0.00% ) Reaches FDA Alignment on Pivotal Phase 2 Trial Design for RP-A501 in Danon Disease

  • Rocky Brands' ( RCKY 0.00% ) Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer Sarah O'Connor has resigned effective immediately; COO Tom Robertson will assume CFO duties until permanent successor has been identified

  • Royal Caribbean ( RCL 1.67% ) opens its new Icon of the Seas vacations early after seeing the largest booking day and highest volume booking week in its history

  • RTX ( RTX 0.00% ) awarded $418 mln U.S. Army contract

  • RTX UK ( RTX 0.00% ) set to receive and integrate UK's first laser weapon system in October

  • Sana Biotechnology ( SANA 0.00% ) provides investor updates in presentation

  • Sigma Lithium ( SGML 0.00% ) is evaluating potential strategic alternatives

  • Standard Lithium ( SLI 1.92% ) acquires large parcel of land for South West Arkansas Project

  • Vale S.A. ( VALE 0.74% ) informs of final decision in administrative proceeding

  • Victory Capital ( VCTR 0.00% ) reports total assets under management of $161.9 bln as of August 31, 2023, down 2.4% from July 31, 2023

  • VinFast Auto ( VFS 0.00% ): Half its 2023 EV sales are to a taxi company controlled by VFS's parent, according to Barrons

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 0.00% ) announces that CFO Kristian Humer resigned, effective September 12

  • Virtu Financial ( VIRT 0.00% ): SEC filed a complaint against the company for failing to safeguard customer info, according to Reuters

  • Wallbox ( WBX 1.11% ) announces a nationwide expansion with Best Buy (BBY), on BestBuy.com and in select stores, for its Pulsar Plus EV chargers

  • Western Midstream ( WES 0.76% ) repurchased 5.1 million common units representing limited partner interests in WES (Common Units) from a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

M&A:

  • Applied Optoelectronics ( AAOI 0.00% ) disclosed it terminated Prime World sale

  • Ares Acquisition Corp. ( AAC 0.09% ) and X-energy announce additional committed capital and attractive strategic updates to business combination

  • T-Mobile US ( TMUS 0.00% ) to acquire spectrum in the 600 MHz band from Comcast (CMCSA) for total cash consideration of $1.2-3.3 bln

Syndicate:

  • Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ( CRNX 0.00% ) upsizes and prices offering of 11,441,648 shares of its common stock at $30.59 per share

  • Granite Ridge Resources ( GRNT 0.18% ) prices secondary offering of 7.1 mln shares of common stock at $5.00 per share

  • Rocket Pharmaceuticals ( RCKT 0.00% ) prices offering of 7,812,500 shares of its common stock at $16.00 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 3,126,955 shares of common stock at$15.99 per pre-funded warrant

  • SilverBow Resources ( SBOW 8.73% ) announces proposed public offering of 3 mln common stocks

  • Squarespace ( SQSP 1.83% ) files mixed shelf securities offering; prices offering of 5 mln shares of common stock at $29.00 per share

IPOs:

  • Arm Holdings ( ARM 0.00% ) received enough backing to secure at least the top end of its $47-51 IPO range, bringing valuation to $54.5 bln, according to Reuters

  • Birkenstock ( BIRK ) going public, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Expected to Price:

  • Arm Holdings (Nasdaq: ARM): The designer of CPUs and other chips for smartphones, PCs, data centers, vehicles, and networking equipment is expected to price its 95.5 M share IPO between $47-$51.

  • Neumora Therapeutics (Nasdaq: NMRA): The clinical biopharmaceutical company developing therapies that target brain diseases as well as major depression and other neuropsychiatric brain disorders is expected to price its 14.7 M share IPO within a range of $16-$18.

  • RayzeBio (Nasdaq: RYZB): The biopharmaceutical company focused on building a market-leading somatostatin receptor type 2 franchise is expected to price its 14.4 M share IPO within a range of $16-$18.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MYNZ +22.4%, RCKT +16.8%, RKLB +4.2%, SLI +3.5%, CRNX +2.5%, SGML +2.1%, RCKY +2%, MOR +2%, REVG +2%, HRT +1.7%, VFS +1.5%, JACK +1.2%, FIVE +1.1%


  • Gapping down:

  • EPM -13.9%, LAZY -6.7%, GRNT -4.9%, AAOI -4.8%, VIRT -4.2%, SAVE -3.8%, SBOW -3.7%, NVO -2.6%, SQSP -1.6%, BEN -0.9%, VRDN -0.8%, RTX -0.7%, VCTR -0.6%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Sealed Air (SEE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $47


  • Downgrades:

  • Ball Corp (BALL) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $58


  • Others:

  • B&G Foods (BGS) initiated with an Underperform at TD Cowen; tgt $10

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) initiated with an Underperform at TD Cowen; tgt $10

  • Campbell Soup (CPB) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $45

  • Conagra (CAG) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $32

  • Freshpet (FRPT) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $90

  • General Mills (GIS) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $70

  • Hershey Foods (HSY) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $250

  • Hostess Brands (TWNK) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $34

  • J.M. Smucker (SJM) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $158

  • Kellogg (K) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $63

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $35

  • Lamb Weston (LW) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $125

  • McCormick (MKC) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $87

  • Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $82

  • TreeHouse Foods (THS) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $45

  • Utz Brands (UTZ) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $18

  • Vital Farms (VITL) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $13


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Sept 9 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -2.9%)

  • 08:30 ET: CPI for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus 0.6%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 08:30 ET: Core CPI for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Sept 9 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -6.31M)

  • 14:00 ET: Treasury Budget for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -$221.0B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Sep 11)

  • Morning: FCEL

  • Afternoon: CASY AVO ORCL


  • Tuesday (Sep 12)

  • Morning: CGNT


  • Wednesday (Sep 13)

  • Morning: CBRL REVG

  • Afternoon: SMTC


  • Thursday (Sep 14)

  • Afternoon: ADBE CPRT LEN


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a lower note. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated that the Bank of Japan is expected to "fulfill its responsibility" regarding monetary policy. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank now expects that the BoJ will end its yield curve control policy in October and exit negative rates in January. Developer Country Garden was able to restructure more yuan-denominated debt. China's Vice Premier Guoqing said that his country is willing to deepen strategic ties with Russia.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's August PPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.1%); 3.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). Q3 BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 5.4 (expected 0.2; last -0.4). September Reuters Tankan Index 4 (last 12)

  • South Korea's August Import Price Index -9.0% yr/yr (last -13.6%) and Export Price Index -7.9% yr/yr (last -12.8%). August Unemployment Rate 2.4% (last 2.8%)

  • Hong Kong's Q2 Industrial Production 2.6% yr/yr (last 3.8%)

  • New Zealand's August FPI 0.5% m/m (last -0.5%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%

  • India's Sensex: +0.4%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.1%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.2% to 147.39

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 7.2803

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.94

Europe: DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.9%

Major European indices trade in the red. U.K.'s GDP in July contracted at its fastest monthly pace since December. There is renewed speculation that the European Central Bank will announce another 25-bps rate hike tomorrow after Reuters reported that the ECB's forecast will show expectations for inflation to remain above 3.0% in 2024. The central bank is also expected to lower its growth expectations for 2023 and 2024. Bank of France expects Q3 growth in France between 0.1-0.2% qtr/qtr.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Industrial Production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.4%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last -1.1%)

  • U.K.'s July GDP -0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.5%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.9%). July Construction Output -0.5% m/m, as expected (last 1.6%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.6%). July Industrial Production -0.7% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 1.8%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.7%). July Manufacturing Production -0.8% m/m (expected -1.0%; last 2.4%); 3.0% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 3.1%). July trade deficit GBP14.06 bln (expected GBP16.00 bln; last GBP15.46 bln)

  • Italy's Q2 Unemployment Rate 7.6% (expected 8.0%; last 7.9%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.9%

  • Germany's DAX: -0.8%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.9%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -1.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.0732

  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2470

  • USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.8931

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