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14/06/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are up 4 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 92 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

The equity futures market is mixed ahead of the Fed decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. That decision will also be accompanied by the release of the Summary of Economic Projections and will be followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The Dow futures are underperforming this morning due to a sizable loss in UnitedHealth (UNH), which warned about rising costs.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 7.2% with purchase applications jumping 8.0% and refinancing applications rising 6.0%. Market participants will also receive the Producer Price Index for May at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.66% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.16.

In corporate news:

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 464.37, -26.94, -5.5%): down following comments at Goldman Sachs conference; company says it expects Q2 medical care ratio to be moderately above the upper bound of its full year outlook.

  • Alphabet (GOOG 123.95, -0.48, -0.4%): EU Commission sends statement of objections to Google over abusive practices in online advertising technology

  • Microsoft (MSFT 334.20, -0.09, -0.03%): California judge temporarily blocks Microsoft (MSFT) acquisition of Activision (ATVI)

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 128.35, +3.82, +3.1%): Amazon Web Services (AMZN) considers using new artificial intelligence chips from AMD (AMD), according to Reuters

  • Logitech (LOGI 57.08, -6.82, -10.7%): CEO Bracken Darrell to depart company to pursue another opportunity

  • Vodafone PLC (VOD 9.41, +0.27, +3.0%): announces merger of Vodafone uk & three UK to create one of Europe's leading 5G networks

  • Meta Platforms (META 271.98, +0.66, +0.2%): Piper Sandler raised its price target to $310 from $270

  • Tesla (TSLA 263.73, +4.99, +1.9%): stock attempting to trade higher for 14th consecutive session

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's May Import Price Index -12.0% yr/yr (expected -9.1%; last -6.0%) and Export Price Index -11.2% yr/yr (expected -13.4%; last -7.2%). May Unemployment Rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%)

  • India's May WPI Inflation -3.48% yr/yr (expected -2.35%; last -0.92%)

  • New Zealand's May FPI 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%). Q1 Current Account deficit 8.5% of GDP (expected 9.3% of GDP; last 9.0% of GDP)


  • In news:

  • The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day and one-day standing lending facility rates by ten basis points and there was ongoing speculation about broad stimulus measures.

  • Japan's Prime Minister Kishida said that policies supporting growth and a higher birthrate will be pursued. The prime minister may dissolve the lower house of parliament if his opposition files a no-confidence motion on Friday.

  • South Korea's unemployment rate reached its lowest level since the series began in 1999.



  • Major European indices trade in positive territory. STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%, Germany's DAX: +0.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%, France's CAC 40: +0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's April Industrial Production 1.0% m/m, as expected (last -3.8%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last -1.4%)

  • Germany's May WPI -1.1% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -0.4%); -2.6% yr/yr (expected -3.3%; last -0.5%)

  • U.K.'s April GDP 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.3%); 0.5% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.3%). April Construction Output -0.6% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 3.6% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.1%). April Industrial Production -0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.7%); -1.9% yr/yr (expected -1.7%; last -2.0%). April Manufacturing Production -0.3% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.7%); -0.9% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.3%). April trade deficit GBP15.00 bln (expected deficit of GBP16.50 bln; last deficit of GBP16.36 bln)


  • In news:

  • Bank of England's Chief Economist Pill repeated the commitment to return inflation to the 2.0% target.

  • French Finance Minister Le Maire said that spending cuts will be implemented to return finances back on track.

  • Germany will increase its NATO spending to 2.0% of GDP, up from the current 1.5% of GDP.

  • Shell announced a 15% increase to its dividend.

  • Italy is observing a national day of mourning for the funeral of former Prime Minister Berlusconi.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +5 @ 4,374

  • DJIA Futures: -81 @ 34,131

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +22 @ 14,923

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.9%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.44 @ 69.86

  • Nat Gas +0.034 @ 2.374

  • Gold +0.95 @ 1959.55

  • Silver +0.073 @ 23.895

  • Copper -0.0038 @ 3.8272


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Confluent ( CFLT 7.62% ) in Investor Day slides: updates mid- and long-term targets; expects 72-75% gross margins and ~30% annual revenue growth in mid-term; 75% gross margins over long term; expects $60-65 mln interest income in FY24/FY25; expects FCF in Q1 to be lowest due to seasonality

  • Fifth Third ( FITB 1.09% ) provides Q2 outlook in presentation slides: sees total revs down 2-3% sequentially; NII down 4-5% assuming stable Fed funds through remainder of quarter

  • Impinj ( PI 3.11% ) says it expects 5 year CAGR revenue growth to be approx. 20%

  • Intevac ( IVAC 9.30% ) retains investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey Capital to evaluate strategic alternatives; notes outlook on hard drive business over 2024-2026 changed materially; reiterates year-end cash outlook and increases FY23 sales forecast

  • M&T Bank ( MTB 0.47% ) provides color on second quarter trends; provides FY23 guidance metrics in slide presentation last night

  • Mitek Systems ( MITK 1.08% ) provides update on Nasdaq listing; reiterates 2022 results and provides 2023 guidance

News:

  • Fed expected to pause interest rate hikes today, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • IEA says growth in global oil demand is set to slow significantly by 2028

  • 2seventy bio ( TSVT 8.55% ) announces clinical study pause of PLAT-08 trial of SC-DARIC33 in acute myeloid leukemia

  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals ( ACAD 0.40% ) Announces Phase 3 Development Candidate ACP-101 (intranasal carbetocin) for Prader-Willi Syndrome

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 1.13% ): EU regulator blocks its Bard chatbot from launching in the region, citing privacy concerns, according to Business Insider

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 1.13% ) introduces new AI-powered ad solutions to drive demand

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 1.13% ): EU Commission sends statement of objections to Google over abusive practices in online advertising technology

  • Altisource Asset Mgmt ( AAMC 6.10% ) receives favorable ruling from New York Appellate Court

  • Amazon Web Services ( AMZN 0.32% ) considers using new artificial intelligence chips from AMD (AMD), according to Reuters

  • Anheuser-Busch InBev ( BUD 1.61% ): Bud Light is no longer top selling beer in the US, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Apyx Medical ( APYX 5.49% ) receives 510(k) clearance from the FDA for the Renuvion Micro Handpiece, a new addition to the Renuvion product family

  • Aramark ( ARMK 0.37% ) announces upsized allocation of debt refinancing

  • Augmedix ( AUGX 1.37% ) extends term loan facility and finalizes terms for equity line of credit

  • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria ( BBVA 4.10% ) has received a new communication from the Bank of Spain regarding the determination of its minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities

  • Brunswick ( BC 1.00% ) recently experienced at IT security incident that impacted some systems and facilities; in response, company paused operations in some locations

  • Cenovus Energy ( CVE 1.27% ) announces repurchase of 84% of its outstanding warrants

  • Churchill Downs' ( CHDN 0.07% ) 50/50 partnership with Urban One, RVA Entertainment Holdings, entered into a Resort Casino Host Community Agreement with the City of Richmond, Virginia to be the City's preferred casino gaming operator

  • Copa Holdings ( CPA 1.66% ) reports May traffic increased 15.3% yr/yr

  • CVR Energy ( CVI 0.36% ) concludes exploration of potential spin-off of its interests in nitrogen fertilizer business and determines not to pursue a spin-off at this time

  • Discover Financial Services ( DFS 0.76% ): credit card delinquency rate for May (30 or more days) was 2.77%, up from 2.75% in October and 1.71% in the year-ago period

  • Eagle Pharma ( EGRX 3.54% ) receives FDA qualified infectious disease product and fast-track designation for cal02, providing five-year exclusivity extension

  • Equity Commonwealth ( EQC 2.96% ) authorizes an additional $150 mln for share repurchases; currently has $120 mln remaining for repurchases that expires June 30, 2023

  • GigaCloud Technology Inc. ( GCT 0.27% ) approves $25.0 mln share repurchase program

  • Inventiva ( IVA 26.16% ) announced positive topline results from the investigator-initiated Phase II clinical trial evaluating lanifibranor in patients with T2D and NAFLD

  • Kymera Therapeutics' ( KYMR 1.32% ) STAT3 Degrader KT-333 and IRAKIMiD Degrader KT-413 Demonstrate Desired Target Knockdown and Safety with Continued Dose Escalation in Ongoing Phase I Clinical Trials

  • Logitech ( LOGI 12.04% ) CEO Bracken Darrell to depart company to pursue another opportunity

  • Maxeon Solar ( MAXN 4.30% ) and Samsung (SSNLF) join forces on smart home energy management solutions

  • Merck ( MRK 0.83% ) announces that the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey ruled in favor of the company and found that Merck correctly calculated the Patent Term Extension period for the primary patent related to BRIDION

  • New Found Gold Corp. ( NFGC 0.43% ) Intercepts 5.6 g/t Au Over 16.3M & 3.3 g/t Au Over 15M at Keats West

  • Nexstar ( NXST 0.81% ) stations in Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Tampa to become affiliated with The CW Network on September 1

  • NextDecade ( NEXT 38.60% ) announces framework agreements with Global Infrastructure Partners and TotalEnergies (TTE) to Support the Development of the Rio Grande LNG Project

  • Nurix Therapeutics ( NRIX 0.95% ) Presents Data from Studies of Its Targeted Protein Degraders in B Cell Malignancies and Initiates Expansion of NX-2127 Phase 1b Trial in Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma and Mantle Cell Lymphoma Indications

  • Oracle ( ORCL 0.60% ): New Oracle Cloud Services Help Banks Manage Risk

  • PDS Biotechnology ( PDSB 0.60% ) achieved the threshold for efficacy as per investigator assessment in Stage 2 of the VERSATILE-002 (NCT04260126) Phase 2 clinical trial in combination with Merck's (MRK) anti-PD-1 therapy, KEYTRUDA

  • PepGen Inc. ( PEPG 1.66% ) Provides Update on Planned Initiation of Phase 1 Study of PGN-EDODM1 in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1

  • Petrobras ( PBR 2.26% ) clarifies that the operation in the petrochemical sector is one of the strategic elements of the Strategic Plan 2024-2028

  • Plug Power ( PLUG 4.26% ) will deliver containerized proton exchange membrane electrolyzer systems to Avina Clean Hydrogen Inc

  • Shell ( SHEL 2.64% ) to deliver more value with less emissions

  • Surmodics ( SRDX 1.75% ) receives FDA 510(k) Clearance for Pounce LP Thrombectomy System

  • Toyota Motor ( TM 3.92% ) announces changes to Board members

  • United Natural Foods ( UNFI 0.51% ) announces actions it is taking to enhance profitability, speed decision-making and reduce administrative layers, primarily by consolidating from four operating regions to three

  • Veradigm ( MDRX 1.71% ) receives approval from Nasdaq of plan to regain listing compliance

M&A:

  • Camping World ( CWH 0.55% ) to acquire Van Boxtel RV in Green Bay, Wisconsin

  • LL Flooring Holdings ( LL 4.09% ): Howard Jonas consortium sends letter to LL strongly encouraging the Board to consider May 26 offer made by F9 Investments and Cabinets to Go to acquire the company at a price of $5.76/share

  • Malacca Straits Acquisition ( MLAC 0.00% ) and Indiev mutually agree to terminate merger; intends to liquidate as soon as practicable on June 16

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.09% ): California judge temporarily blocks Microsoft acquisition of Activision (ATVI), according to Bloomberg

  • Petrobras ( PBR 2.26% ) says no decision has been made regarding the process for divesting or increasing its stake in Braskem

  • Seagen ( SGEN 0.54% ) continues to expect that the Pfizer (PFE) merger will be completed in late 2023 or early 2024

  • Stericycle ( SRCL 0.53% ) announced that it has sold its secure information destruction services operations in Australia and Singapore

  • Vodafone PLC ( VOD 1.37% ) announces merger of Vodafone uk & three UK to create one of Europe's leading 5G networks

Syndicate:

  • Casella Waste ( CWST 1.00% ) prices offering of 5,263,158 shares of common stock at $85.50 per share

  • Cineverse ( CNVS 26.69% ) to file public offering; no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering

  • Disc Medicine ( IRON 2.22% ) prices offering of 2,595,919 shares of common stock at $49.00 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 204,081 shares of common stock

  • Kura Oncology ( KURA 3.18% ) prices offering of 5,660,871 shares of its common stock and pre-funded warrants to purchase 3,034,782 shares of its common stock

  • MicroVision ( MVIS 17.90% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • RadNet ( RDNT 4.43% ) prices offering of 7,575,000 shares of common stock at $29.75 per share

IPOs:

  • IPOs Expected to Price:

  • CAVA Group (NYSE: CAVA): The Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain is expected to price its 14.4 M share IPO between $17-$19.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • AAMC +11.6%, NEXT +10.1%, GCT +6.5%, CVE +4%, VOD +3.7%, EQC +3.4%, LL +2.8%, PDSB +2.7%, LITE +1.7%, UNFI +1.1%, MRK +0.7%, CVI +0.6%, NCLH +0.6%, GILD +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • CNVS -27.8%, ITI -12.8%, MVIS -12.7%, LOGI -11.4%, RDNT -9%, KURA -6.4%, UNH -4.7%, IVAC -4.2%, ACAD -3.7%, FITB -3.3%, SR -2.9%, CWST -1.8%, DASH -1.6%, CFLT -0.7%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at MoffettNathanson; tgt raised to $80


  • Downgrades:

  • Ballard Power (BLDP) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $4.25


  • Others:

  • Affirm (AFRM) initiated with a Sell at BTIG Research; tgt $10

  • Agree Realty (ADC) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $80

  • Bentley Systems (BSY) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $60

  • Block (SQ) assumed with a Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $63

  • Green Dot (GDOT) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Jack Henry (JKHY) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $183

  • NETSTREIT (NTST) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $23

  • NNN REIT (NNN) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $42

  • Open Lending (LPRO) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Oportun Financial (OPRT) assumed with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $7

  • PayPal (PYPL) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $85

  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $14

  • Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $42

  • VICI Properties (VICI) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $41

  • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) assumed with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $51

  • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $46

  • W.P. Carey (WPC) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $74


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for June 10 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -1.4%)

  • 08:30 ET: PPI for May (Briefing.com Consensus -0.1%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 08:30 ET: Core PPI for May (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for June 10 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -0.451M)

  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Rate Decision (Briefing.com Consensus 5.00-5.25%; Prior 5.00-5.25%)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Jun 12)

  • Afternoon: ORCL


  • Tuesday (Jun 13)

  • None


  • Wednesday (Jun 14)

  • Afternoon: LEN


  • Thursday (Jun 15)

  • Morning: JBL KR

  • Afternoon: ADBE


  • Friday (Jun 16)

  • None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day and one-day standing lending facility rates by ten basis points and there was ongoing speculation about broad stimulus measures. Japan's Prime Minister Kishida said that policies supporting growth and a higher birthrate will be pursued. The prime minister may dissolve the lower house of parliament if his opposition files a no-confidence motion on Friday. South Korea's unemployment rate reached its lowest level since the series began in 1999.

  • In economic data:

  • South Korea's May Import Price Index -12.0% yr/yr (expected -9.1%; last -6.0%) and Export Price Index -11.2% yr/yr (expected -13.4%; last -7.2%). May Unemployment Rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%)

  • India's May WPI Inflation -3.48% yr/yr (expected -2.35%; last -0.92%)

  • New Zealand's May FPI 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%). Q1 Current Account deficit 8.5% of GDP (expected 9.3% of GDP; last 9.0% of GDP)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.7%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.1% to 140.02

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 7.1661

  • USD/INR: -0.2% to 82.05

Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.9%

Major European indices trade in positive territory. Bank of England's Chief Economist Pill repeated the commitment to return inflation to the 2.0% target. French Finance Minister Le Maire said that spending cuts will be implemented to return finances back on track. Germany will increase its NATO spending to 2.0% of GDP, up from the current 1.5% of GDP. Shell announced a 15% increase to its dividend. Italy is observing a national day of mourning for the funeral of former Prime Minister Berlusconi.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's April Industrial Production 1.0% m/m, as expected (last -3.8%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last -1.4%)

  • Germany's May WPI -1.1% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -0.4%); -2.6% yr/yr (expected -3.3%; last -0.5%)

  • U.K.'s April GDP 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.3%); 0.5% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.3%). April Construction Output -0.6% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 3.6% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.1%). April Industrial Production -0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.7%); -1.9% yr/yr (expected -1.7%; last -2.0%). April Manufacturing Production -0.3% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.7%); -0.9% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.3%). April trade deficit GBP15.00 bln (expected deficit of GBP16.50 bln; last deficit of GBP16.36 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.6%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.9%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.4%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +1.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0806

  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2646

  • USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.9028


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