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14/01/22 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures trade eight points, or 0.2%, below fair value following yesterday's growth-stock-driven decline, as investors digest the first round of Q4 bank earnings and await key economic data.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 163.35, -4.88, -2.9%), Wells Fargo (WFC 57.15, +1.15, +2.1%), and BlackRock (BLK 852.00, -15.58, -1.8%) each beat EPS estimates, but the reactions have been mixed. JPM and BLK are down 2-3% in pre-market action while WFC is up 2%.

In economic data, prior to the open, investors will receive Retail Sales for December (Briefing.comconsensus 0.0%) and Import/Export Prices for December at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Industrial Production (Briefing.comconsensus 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.comconsensus 77.1%) for December at 9:15 a.m. ET.

After the open, the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for January (Briefing.comconsensus 68.5) and Business Inventories for November (Briefing.comconsensus 1.0%) will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Away from equities, Treasury yields are moving higher after a quiet day yesterday. The 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 0.92%, and the 10-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.74% -- still below its recent high of 1.81%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 94.87. WTI crude is up 0.7% to $82.69/bbl.

In U.S. corporate news:

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM 163.35, -4.88): -2.9% after beating EPS estimates on below-consensus revenue. The company had a credit costs net benefit of $1.3 billion.

  • Wells Fargo (WFC 57.15, +1.15): +2.1% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.

  • BlackRock (BLK 852.00, -15.58): -1.8% despite beating EPS estimates and growing assets under management to $10.01 trillion.

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 202.50, +1.98): +1.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.

  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW 306.90, -10.49): -3.3% after guiding Q4 EPS below consensus, citing raw-material availability and labor headwinds in December.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -1.3% (-1.2% for the week) Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.2% (+3.8% for the week) China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0% (-1.6% for the week) India's Sensex: UNCH (+2.5% for the week) South Korea's Kospi: -1.4% (-1.1% for the week) Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0% (-0.7% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • China's December trade surplus $94.46 bln (expected surplus of $74.50 bln; last surplus of $71.72 bln). December Imports 19.5% yr/yr (expected 26.3%; last 31.7%) and Exports 20.9% yr/yr (expected 20.0%; last 22.0%)

  • Japan's December PPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.7%); 8.5% yr/yr (expected 8.8%; last 9.2%)

  • India's December WPI Inflation 13.56% yr/yr (expected 13.50%; last 14.23%). December trade deficit $21.68 bln (expected deficit of $22.00 bln; last deficit of $21.99 bln)

  • Australia's November Home Loans 7.6% m/m (last -4.1%)


  • In news:

  • China reported a larger than expected trade surplus for December.

  • Chinese press reported that China's infrastructure investment is expected to increase 8% yr/yr in 2022.

  • Policymakers at the Bank of Japan may reportedly guide for a rate hike before the 2.0% inflation target is reached.

  • Hopes for broad-based wage increases in Japan are diminishing.

  • South Korea is planning an extra budget of about KRW14 trln.

  • The Bank of Korea raised its base rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, as expected.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.8% (-0.9% week-to-date) Germany's DAX: -0.9% (-0.3% week-to-date) U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (+0.9% week-to-date) France's CAC 40: -0.8% (-1.1% week-to-date) Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.1% (-0.3% week-to-date) Spain's IBEX 35: -0.4% (+0.4% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November trade deficit EUR1.50 bln (expected surplus of EUR7.60 bln; last surplus of EUR3.30 bln) Germany's 2021 GDP 2.7%, as expected (last -4.6%)

  • U.K.'s November Industrial Production 1.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%). November Manufacturing Production 1.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last 1.1%). November Construction Output 3.5% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.7%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.3%). November GDP 0.9% m/m (last 0.2%)

  • France's December CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.8%)

  • Spain's December CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 1.3%; last 0.3%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.7%; last 5.5%)


  • In news:

  • Growth in the U.K. has recovered to pre-pandemic levels while growth in Germany remains about 2% below its pre-pandemic level.

  • The eurozone reported an unexpected trade deficit for November due to higher prices of oil and gas imports.

  • December inflation readings from France and Spain remained well above target.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -16 @ 4,643

  • DJIA Futures: -101 @ 36,012

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -94 @ 15,401

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.9%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.8%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.3%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.35 @ 82.47

  • Nat Gas -0.043 @ 4.227

  • Gold -0.15 @ 1821.25

  • Silver -0.179 @ 22.983

  • Copper -0.0428 @ 4.5032

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):

  • Babylon (BBLN) expects its revenues in January 2022 to be over $80 million monthly, driven by the securing of US value-based care agreements which will deliver an estimated 88,000 organic new members, bringing global managed lives to over 440,000

  • BlackRock (BLK) beats by $0.28, reports revs in-line

  • Boston Beer (SAM) lowers EPS guidance for 2021; shipment growth and gross margins will be below guidance

  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) announces Q4 preliminary gold production

  • First Republic Bank (FRC) beats by $0.09, beats on revs

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beats by $0.32, misses on revs

  • PROS Holdings (PRO) guides Q4 EPS and revenue above consensus estimates

  • SAP SE (SAP) guides Q4 earnings and revs above consensus; expects FY22 cloud revenue to grow 23-26% yr/yr

  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) sees Q4 EPS below consensus; revs in-line

  • Wash. Federal (WAFD) beats by $0.01

  • Wells Fargo (WFC) beats by $0.38, beats on revs


  • General News:

  • President Biden will nominate Sarah Bloom Raskin to be Fed Vice Chair of Supervision. He will also nominate Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson as Fed governors, according to CNBC

  • Senate will vote Tuesday on voting rights, but vote is expected to fail because Democrats do not have enough votes to change filibuster rules due to opposition from moderate Democrats, according to CNN

  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports March rate increase, according to Reuters

  • NRF responds to Supreme Court decision on OSHA employer vaccine mandate; says Supreme Court's decision is a "significant victory for employers"

  • White House announces actions following passage of bipartisan infrastructure bill last year

  • House Select Committee subpoenas social media cos TWTR, GOOG, FB re Jan 6 investigation, according to CNBC

  • Macau aiming to give a maximum of 6 casino licenses, according to Bloomberg

  • Cruise ship COVID-19 safety guidance will soon be optional, according to CNN

  • Albemarle (ALB) signs joint development agreement with 6K to develop novel lithium battery materials through potentially disruptive manufacturing processes

  • Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) CFO John Fairbanks to retire, effective April 1, 2022

  • Bausch Health's (BHC) wholly-owned subsidiary, Bausch + Lomb Corporation, files registration statement with SEC for proposed IPO

  • Biogen (BIIB): S&P downgrades to 'BBB+' from 'A-' on declining sales and lower growth prospects, outlook stable

  • Canon (CAJ) aiming to shutdown China factory for cameras, according to Reuters

  • Cardiovascular Systems (CSII): significant progress made toward the commercialization of intravascular lithotripsy systems to treat calcific coronary and peripheral artery disease

  • Castle Biosciences (CSTL): Recently Published Data Confirm DecisionDx-SCC as a Significant and Independent Risk-Stratification Tool in Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma and One or More Risk Factors

  • Chubb (CB) appoints D. Spitzer as Treasurer, K. Harkin appointed as CFO of N. Am. Insurance

  • Continental Resources (CLR) promotes John Hart to CFO

  • Copa Holdings (CPA) reports monthly traffic statistics for December

  • Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) partner initiates Phase 1/1b clinical trial of ITK inhibitor CPI-818 in China

  • HYZON Motors (HYZN) CEO gave an interview with Bloomberg News in which he stated that the Company expects to deliver between 500 and 700 commercial vehicles in the 2022 fiscal year

  • Kaiser Alum (KALU) increases its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.77/share

  • LumiraDx (LMDX) analysis confirms its COVID-19 antigen test detects the omicron variant

  • MagnaChip Semi (MX) launches eleven new generation high-voltage 600V SJ MOSFETS with mass production to begin in March 2022

  • Mastercard (MA) CEO stated "relatively positive" spending trends thus far in 2022, according to CNBC

  • Meta Platforms (FB): UK "Competition legal expert" expects to file lawsuit against FB for $3.1 bln, according to Tech Crunch

  • OraSure (OSUR) says its InteliSwab COVID-19 rapid tests detect Omicron as effectively as previous variants

  • Planet Labs (PL) reports successful launch of its 4x Flock, consisting of 44 SuperDove satellites, into orbit on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket

  • Premier's (PINC) subsidiary Contigo Health announces new partnership with OhioHealthy Plans; not expected to materially impact PINC's FY22 results

  • RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD) believes systems intrusion incident has been contained

  • SAP SE (SAP) authorizes new share repurchase program up to 1 billion; planned to be executed between Feb 1 and Dec 31, 2022

  • TechnipFMC (FTI) awarded integrated EPCI contract by Equinor (EQNR)

  • Tesla (TSLA) delays production of Cybertruck until next year, according to Reuters

  • Volkswagen (VWAGY) impacted by China coronavirus shutdowns, according to Bloomberg

  • Winnebago (WGO) to reveal an all-electric concept motorhome at the Florida RV Super Show on Jan 18


  • M&A:

  • Century Casinos (CNTY) subsidiary agrees to sell land and building in Calgary for CAD 8.1 mln

  • Citigroup (C) divests Consumer Bank in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam to UOB Group

  • ODP Corporation (ODP) announces that its Board of Directors determined to delay the previously announced public company separation to evaluate a potential sale of the Company's consumer business

  • Zendesk (ZEN) issues letter to shareholders regarding proposed acquisition of Momentive Global (MNTV)


  • Syndicate:

  • Brigham Minerals (MNRL) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) commences public offering of 3,502,033 shares of Class A common stock

  • Runway Growth Finance (RWAY) files for $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Spirit Realty Capital (SRC) prices offering of 8.2 mln shares of common stock at $47.60 per share


  • IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade: No IPOs expected to price.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MNRL +4.2%, PL +3.6%, HYZN +2.6%, PRO +1.3%, RRD +1.2%, SPCE +1.2%, OSUR +1%, BHC +0.9%, C+0.9%, EGO +0.8%, SAP +0.8%, WAFD +0.8%, WGO+0.7%, TWTR +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • SAM -6.9%, PWP -5.4%, CSTL -5.3%, SRC -4.3%, ASPN -2%, MNTV -1.1%, BIIB -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • ATI Physical Therapy (ATIP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt $5

  • Canadian Nat'l Rail (CNI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $137

  • Check Point Software (CHKP) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $140

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $1920

  • Five Below (FIVE) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $230

  • Mosaic (MOS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $50

  • O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $785

  • ONEOK (OKE) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $68


  • Downgrades:

  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $60

  • Brinker (EAT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gordon Haskett; tgt $41

  • Cerence (CRNC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $77

  • Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $45

  • Cognizant Tech (CTSH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt raised to $95

  • Corning (GLW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $41

  • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $172

  • Domino's Pizza (DPZ) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $535

  • Ford Motor (F) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $26

  • MorphoSys (MOR) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $14

  • Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $165


  • Others:

  • AdTheorent (ADTH) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $8

  • Camtek (CAMT) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $47

  • Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $11

  • Dada (DADA) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $25

  • Honeywell (HON) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $230


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 0.0%; Prior 0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 0.2%; Prior 0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Import Price Index for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 0.7%)

  • 08:30 ET: Import Prices ex-oil for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 0.5%)

  • 08:30 ET: Export Price Index for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: Export Prices ex-ag for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1.0%)

  • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 0.3%; Prior 0.5%)

  • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus 77.1%; Prior 76.8%)

  • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus 1.0%; Prior 1.2%)

  • 10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim for Jan (Briefing.comConsensus 68.5; Prior 70.6)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Jan 10)

  • Morning: AZZ CMC TLRY

  • Afternoon: ACCD


  • Tuesday (Jan 11)

  • Morning: ACI SNX


  • Wednesday (Jan 12)

  • Morning: JEF SJR

  • Afternoon: KBH


  • Thursday (Jan 13)

  • Morning: DAL TSM

  • Afternoon: WAFD


  • Friday (Jan 14)

  • Morning: BLK C FRC JPM WFC




Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.3%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. China reported a larger than expected trade surplus for December. Chinese press reported that China's infrastructure investment is expected to increase 8% yr/yr in 2022. Policymakers at the Bank of Japan may reportedly guide for a rate hike before the 2.0% inflation target is reached. Hopes for broad-based wage increases in Japan are diminishing. South Korea is planning an extra budget of about KRW14 trln. The Bank of Korea raised its base rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, as expected.

  • In economic data:

  • China's December trade surplus $94.46 bln (expected surplus of $74.50 bln; last surplus of $71.72 bln). December Imports 19.5% yr/yr (expected 26.3%; last 31.7%) and Exports 20.9% yr/yr (expected 20.0%; last 22.0%)

  • Japan's December PPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.7%); 8.5% yr/yr (expected 8.8%; last 9.2%)

  • India's December WPI Inflation 13.56% yr/yr (expected 13.50%; last 14.23%). December trade deficit $21.68 bln (expected deficit of $22.00 bln; last deficit of $21.99 bln)

  • Australia's November Home Loans 7.6% m/m (last -4.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.3% (-1.2% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.2% (+3.8% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0% (-1.6% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: UNCH (+2.5% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.4% (-1.1% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0% (-0.7% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.2% to 113.90

  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.3577

  • USD/INR: +0.3% to 74.12

Europe: DAX -0.9%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.8%

Major European indices trade in the red. Growth in the U.K. has recovered to pre-pandemic levels while growth in Germany remains about 2% below its pre-pandemic level. The eurozone reported an unexpected trade deficit for November due to higher prices of oil and gas imports. December inflation readings from France and Spain remained well above target.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November trade deficit EUR1.50 bln (expected surplus of EUR7.60 bln; last surplus of EUR3.30 bln)

  • Germany's 2021 GDP 2.7%, as expected (last -4.6%)

  • U.K.'s November Industrial Production 1.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%). November Manufacturing Production 1.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last 1.1%). November Construction Output 3.5% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.7%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.3%). November GDP 0.9% m/m (last 0.2%)

  • France's December CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.8%)

  • Spain's December CPI 1.2% m/m (expected 1.3%; last 0.3%); 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.7%; last 5.5%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.8% (-0.9% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: -0.9% (-0.3% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (+0.9% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.8% (-1.1% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.1% (-0.3% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.4% (+0.4% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1441

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.3708

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9118


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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures