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13/07/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

Stock futures are higher, benefitting from carryover momentum and continued buying interest in the mega cap stocks. There's also likely some fear of missing out on further gains driving the continued strength.

China reported trade data for June that reflected a larger than expected year-over-year decline in both imports (actual -6.8%; expected -4.0%; last -4.5%) and exports (actual -12.4%; expected -9.5%; last -7.5%). This acted as another data point that fueled talk of policy stimulus.


Separately, the Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, but also left the door open to an additional rate hike in the future.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.67% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 100.24. These moves are happening in front of the Producer Price Index for June and weekly initial jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL 50.10, +2.15, +4.5%): beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • PepsiCo (PEP 188.40, +5.23, +2.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

  • Tesla (TSLA 274.03, +2.06, +0.8%): in factory discussions with India, according to Times of India

  • Walt Disney (DIS 91.56, +1.41, +1.6%): announces that Robert Iger has agreed to continue to serve as CEO through December 31, 2026

  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS 85.31, +2.49, +3.0%): implements workforce reduction of approximately 5% in response to overall market conditions; CEO John Forsyth to reduce base salary by 10%, effective immediately

  • Carvana (CVNA 36.66, -2.23, -5.7%): downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

  • Coinbase (COIN 84.93, -1.02, -1.2%): downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI 8.88, -0.32, -3.5%): downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • Cryoport (CYRX 13.90, -5.44, -28.0%): guides Q2 and FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Fastenal (FAST 57.10, -1.63, -2.8%): misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line

  • Viasat (VSAT 33.25, -9.73, -22.6%): unexpected event occurred during reflector deployment that may materially impact the performance of the ViaSat-3 Americas satellite

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.3%, India's Sensex: +0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.6%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's June trade surplus $70.62 bln (expected surplus of $74.80 bln; last surplus of $65.81 bln). June Imports -6.8% yr/yr (expected -4.0%; last -4.5%) and Exports -12.4% yr/yr (expected -9.5%; last -7.5%)

      • South Korea's Import Price Index -15.7% yr/yr (expected -15.2%; last -12.3%) and Export Price Index -14.7% yr/yr (expected -11.6%; last -11.3%)

      • Australia's July MI Inflation Expectations 5.2% (expected 5.1%; last 5.2%)

      • New Zealand's June Business NZ PMI 47.5 (expected 49.8; last 48.9). June Electronic Card Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -1.7%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 9.9%; last 3.3%). June Food Price Index 1.6% m/m (expected 1.5%; last 0.3%)


  • In news:

    • Technology stocks had a strong showing in Hong Kong after Chinese officials pledged to provide support for individual businesses and announced that regulation of "platform firms" will be improved.

    • China Economic Daily highlighted the risks associated with local government financing vehicles due to heavy indebtedness.

    • The Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, but also left the door open to an additional rate hike in the future.



  • Major European indices trade in positive territory. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's May Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 1.0%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last 0.2%)

      • U.K.'s May Construction Output -0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.9%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 2.7%). May GDP -0.1% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.2%). May Industrial Production -0.6% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%); -2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.6%). May Manufacturing Production -0.2% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%); -1.2% yr/yr (expected -1.7%; last -0.6%). May trade deficit GBP18.72 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.70 bln; last deficit of GBP14.64 bln)

      • France's June CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.1%); 4.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.1%)


  • In news:

    • The Bank of England's quarterly bank survey showed that mortgage defaults have reached their highest level since 2009 in Q2.

    • British homebuilder Barratt Developments lowered its deliveries forecast for FY24 due to high rates.

    • British Prime Minister Sunak is reportedly in favor of a 6% pay increase for public sector workers.

    • European Central Bank policymaker Visco said that he is somewhat against the preference for additional tightening, adding that the peak rate is not far away. Meanwhile, policymaker Stournaras said that a September rate hike is not a done deal, given the weakening economy.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +16 @ 4,489

  • DJIA Futures: +73 @ 34,421

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +104 @ 15,411

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.8%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng +2.6%, Shanghai Composite +1.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.19 @ 75.94

  • Nat Gas +0.005 @ 2.637

  • Gold +2.65 @ 1964.35

  • Silver +0.193 @ 24.503

  • Copper +0.0380 @ 3.891


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Alexandria RE ( ARE 0.52% ) narrows FY23 FFO guidance

  • Barrick ( GOLD 4.61% ) reports Q2 production; on track to meet 2023 targets

  • Conagra ( CAG 0.42% ) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line; raises dividend

  • Cryoport ( CYRX 0.00% ) guides Q2 and FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Delta Air Lines ( DAL 1.46% ) beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Eli Lilly ( LLY 0.28% ) expects its Q2 GAAP and adjusted EPS will include a charge of $0.09, related to acquired IPR&D

  • Fastenal ( FAST 0.00% ) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line

  • Hecla Mining ( HL 8.97% ) announces second quarter production

  • Main Street Capital ( MAIN 0.40% ) reports Q2 private loan portfolio activity

  • MillerKnoll ( MLKN 0.00% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides AugQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, expects FY24 net sales to be slightly lower yr/yr

  • Orchid Island Capital ( ORC 1.00% ) provides Q2 update; sees GAAP EPS of $0.25 per share

  • PepsiCo ( PEP 0.00% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

News:

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with China's Wang Yi today, according to CNN

  • White House publishes the national cybersecurity strategy implementation plan

  • SAG-AFTRA television, theatrical and streaming contracts expire without a deal

  • AllianceBernstein ( AB 2.14% ) announces that preliminary assets under management increased to $691 billion during June 2023 from $670 billion at the end of May

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 0.00% ): Google updates policy to open new ways to transact blockchain-based digital content within apps and games on Google Play

  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt ( APAM 3.25% ) reports preliminary assets under management of $143.0 bln as of June 30, 2023; Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $69.1 bln of total firm AUM

  • Autoliv ( ALV 2.63% ) accelerates its global structural cost reductions

  • Bally's Corporation ( BALY 0.69% ) enters into a strategic partnership with Stakelogic, a live casino supplier

  • Bluebirdbio ( BLUE 0.00% ) provided updates on gene therapy programs and a safety update with respect to SKYSONA

  • Calliditas ( CALT 0.00% ) announces supportive interim data from Phase 2 head and neck cancer trial with lead NOX inhibitor candidate, setanaxib

  • Carlyle ( CG 0.00% ) among firms considering exit from McDonald's (MCD) Hong Kong and China operations, according to Bloomberg

  • Cirrus Logic ( CRUS 0.00% ) implements workforce reduction of approximately 5% in response to overall market conditions; CEO John Forsyth to reduce base salary by 10%, effective immediately

  • Clearway Energy ( CWEN 0.39% ) announced Q2 wind production for its fleet was approximately 25% below internal median production estimates

  • Coinbase Global ( COIN 0.00% ) introduces messaging on Coinbase Wallet

  • Copa Holdings ( CPA 2.48% ) reports June traffic increased 10.7% yr/yr

  • CoStar Group ( CSGP 0.00% ): Apartments.com releases report of multifamily rent growth trends for Q2; supply continues to outpace demand with 520,000 new units expected to be delivered by year's end

  • Essential Utilities ( WTRG 2.55% ) announces lower needs for common equity in 2023

  • Franklin Resources ( BEN 2.45% ) announces month-end assets under management

  • Google ( GOOG 0.00% ) adds more languages to artificial intelligence chat bot, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Grainger ( GWW 2.31% ) to open a 500,000 square foot distribution center in Oregon in 2025

  • Gran Tierra Energy ( GTE 1.05% ) provides operational update

  • Incannex Healthcare ( IXHL 0.00% ) receives HREC approval for Phase 2 clinical trial assessing IHL-675A for use in treatment of pain and function in rheumatoid arthritis

  • Invesco ( IVZ 4.78% ) reports assets under management for June of $1,538.2 billion, an increase of 3.4% versus previous month-end

  • Lazard ( LAZ 4.22% ) reports june 2023 assets under management

  • Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) last night filed public form 10 registration statement in connection with continued planning for separation of its studio and Starz businesses

  • Meta ( META 0.00% ) aiming to release commercial version of artificial intelligence model, according to Financial Times

  • NextDecade ( NEXT 0.00% ) makes positive final investment decision to construct the first three liquefaction (Phase 1) trains at its 27 million tonnes per annum Rio Grande LNG export facility

  • Nomura ( NMR 1.29% ) wants to enter Europe for equity business, according to Bloomberg

  • Paramount ( PARA 0.00% ) garners 56 Primetime Emmy Award nominations

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ) reports Phase III results for Genentech's Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) Twice a Year, 10-Minute Subcutaneous Injection in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis

  • Roku ( ROKU 0.00% ) and FreeWheel partner to launch new technological offerings that aim to simplify, optimize and enhance TV streaming

  • Ryder System ( R 0.95% ) increases its quarterly dividend 14.5% to $0.71/share; annual yield of 3.4%

  • Sony ( SONY 1.78% ) aiming to increase R&D on gaming, according to Reuters

  • Tesla ( TSLA 0.00% ) in factory discussions with India, according to Times of India

  • TotalEnergies SE ( TTE 1.76% ) and Partners make the final investment decision of the RGLNG project in Texas

  • Viasat ( VSAT 0.00% ): unexpected event occurred during reflector deployment that may materially impact the performance of the ViaSat-3 Americas satellite

  • Victory Capital ( VCTR 0.00% ) reports assets under management of $161.6 bln as of June 30, 2023, compared to $154.8 bln as of May 31, 2023

  • Virgin Galactic ( SPCE 0.26% ) announced the flight window for the 'Galactic 02' mission

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 0.74% ) announces that Robert Iger has agreed to continue to serve as CEO through December 31, 2026

  • Weatherford ( WFRD 0.00% ) announces that it has been awarded a five-year contract to provide Intervention Services for Petrleo Brasileiro S.A. in Brazil

M&A:

  • Activision Blizzard ( ATVI 0.00% ): FTC files appeal to uphold block on Microsoft (MSFT) deal to purchase ATVI; case will be heard by US 9th Circuit Court of Appeals

  • AG Mortgage Investment Trust ( MITT 1.78% ) submits offer to acquire Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation (WMC) for implied price of $9.88/share

  • Braskem SA ( BAK 1.69% ) issues statement to market; says J&F, for a period of 120 days, may acquire all of the credit rights for the amount of R$10.0 bln

  • Chindata Group ( CD 0.00% ) received a preliminary non-binding proposal letter from China Merchants Capital Holdings to acquire all of the outstanding shares for $9.20 per ADS in cash

  • IMAX ( IMAX 0.70% ) intends to acquire full ownership of IMAX China Subsidiary

Syndicate:

  • Bicycle Therapeutics ( BCYC 0.00% ) prices offering of 9,411,766 ADSs at $21.25 per ADS

  • Savara ( SVRA 0.00% ) prices underwritten offering of 21 mln shares at $3/share

  • Virtus Investment Partners ( VRTS 0.00% ) reports June AUM of $168.3 bln

IPOs:

  • Liquid Death plans IPO next year, according to The Information

  • Expected to Price:

    • Apogee Therapeutics (Nasdaq: APGE): The biotech company developing biologics for treatment of atopic dermatitis, COPD, and related inflammatory and immunology indications is expected to price its 15.6 M share IPO between $15-$17.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • TTD +3.4%, CRUS +3%, NEXT +2.9%, IMAX +2.4%, ROKU +1.7%, AB +1.7%, PEP +1.7%, BALY +1.6%, DIS +1.5%, LGF.A +1.2%, BEN +1.1%, VCTR +1%, ALV +1%, IVZ +0.8%, CD +0.7%


  • Gapping down:

    • CYRX -30.5%, VSAT -22.2%, MLKN -5.8%, IXHL -3.5%, BLFS -3%, GTE -2.3%, BCYC -2%, KBH -1.6%, CMPS -1.5%, CALT -1.4%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $10

    • Domino's Pizza (DPZ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast; tgt $430

    • Lazard (LAZ) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $36

    • Meta Platforms (META) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $345

    • Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $28

    • Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank; tgt $213

    • Thermo Fisher (TMO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $620


  • Downgrades:

    • Activision Blizzard ((ATVI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt raised to $95

    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $95

    • ACV Auctions (ACVA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $17

    • Advantage Oil and Gas (AAV) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets

    • Carvana (CVNA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $10

    • Coinbase Global (COIN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $70

    • Cryoport (CYRX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at SVB Securities; tgt lowered to $10

    • EngageSmart (ESMT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $21

    • IonQ (IONQ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at WestPark Capital

    • LL Flooring Holdings (LL) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $3.25

    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt lowered to $72

    • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $7

    • TFI International (TFII) downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at Scotiabank


  • Others:

    • American Tower (AMT) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $230

    • APA Corp. (APA) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $46

    • Axonics Modulation (AXNX) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $70

    • Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $6

    • Codorus Valley Bancorp (CVLY) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $22

    • Crown Castle (CCI) initiated with an Underperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $113

    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $154

    • Financial Inst. (FISI) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt $20

    • Kanzhun Limited (BZ) initiated with a Buy at Daiwa Securities; tgt $19

    • Permian Resources (PR) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $14

    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company

    • Private Bancorp of America (PBAM) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $35

    • SBA Comm (SBAC) initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $260

    • Suncor Energy (SU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets

    • Zuora (ZUO) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $12


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for July 8 (Briefing.com Consensus 2417K; Prior 248K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for July 1 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1720K)

  • 08:30 ET: PPI for June (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior -0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Core PPI for June (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for July 8 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +72 bcf)

  • 14:00 ET: Treasury Budget for June (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -$240.3B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (July 10)

    • Morning: HELE

    • Afternoon: PSMT WDFC


  • Tuesday (July 11)

    • Morning: None

    • Afternoon: None


  • Wednesday (July 12)

    • Morning: ANGO

    • Afternoon: MLKN


  • Thursday (July 13)

    • Morning: CTAS CAG DAL FAST PEP PGR

    • Afternoon: WAFD


  • Friday (Jul 14)

    • Morning: BLK C ERIC JPM STT UNH WFC

    • Afternoon: None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.5%, Hang Seng +2.6%, Shanghai Composite +1.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a higher note. Technology stocks had a strong showing in Hong Kong after Chinese officials pledged to provide support for individual businesses and announced that regulation of "platform firms" will be improved. China Economic Daily highlighted the risks associated with local government financing vehicles due to heavy indebtedness. The Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, but also left the door open to an additional rate hike in the future.

  • In economic data:

    • China's June trade surplus $70.62 bln (expected surplus of $74.80 bln; last surplus of $65.81 bln). June Imports -6.8% yr/yr (expected -4.0%; last -4.5%) and Exports -12.4% yr/yr (expected -9.5%; last -7.5%)

    • South Korea's Import Price Index -15.7% yr/yr (expected -15.2%; last -12.3%) and Export Price Index -14.7% yr/yr (expected -11.6%; last -11.3%)

    • Australia's July MI Inflation Expectations 5.2% (expected 5.1%; last 5.2%)

    • New Zealand's June Business NZ PMI 47.5 (expected 49.8; last 48.9). June Electronic Card Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -1.7%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 9.9%; last 3.3%). June Food Price Index 1.6% m/m (expected 1.5%; last 0.3%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +1.3%

  • India's Sensex: +0.3%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.6%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 138.52

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.1685

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.06

Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.8%

Major European indices trade in positive territory. The Bank of England's quarterly bank survey showed that mortgage defaults have reached their highest level since 2009 in Q2. British homebuilder Barratt Developments lowered its deliveries forecast for FY24 due to high rates. British Prime Minister Sunak is reportedly in favor of a 6% pay increase for public sector workers. European Central Bank policymaker Visco said that he is somewhat against the preference for additional tightening, adding that the peak rate is not far away. Meanwhile, policymaker Stournaras said that a September rate hike is not a done deal, given the weakening economy.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's May Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 1.0%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last 0.2%)

    • U.K.'s May Construction Output -0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.9%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 2.7%). May GDP -0.1% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.2%). May Industrial Production -0.6% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%); -2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.6%). May Manufacturing Production -0.2% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -0.2%); -1.2% yr/yr (expected -1.7%; last -0.6%). May trade deficit GBP18.72 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.70 bln; last deficit of GBP14.64 bln)

    • France's June CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.1%); 4.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.6%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.8%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.0%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.4% to 1.1173

  • GBP/USD: +0.7% to 1.3071

  • USD/CHF: -0.5% to 0.8623

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