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12/10/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.3% fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 126 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Equity futures indicate a higher open as participants wait on the September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are lower currently, but investors will be focused on how rates react to the data. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.99% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.56%.

Israel said that the siege of Gaza will not end until all the hostages have been released, according to Reuters.

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) prevailed in the GOP conference vote, but House Republicans have doubts on whether Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has enough votes to get elected Speaker, according to Politico. He needs 217 votes to win the Speaker position.

In corporate news:

  • Domino's Pizza (DPZ 343.31, -10.74, -3.0%): beats by $0.87, misses on revs

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 22.25, -0.35, -1.6%): misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL 36.77, +0.79, +2.2%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Fastenal (FAST 58.40, +2.39, +4.3%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line

  • Ford Motor (F 11.98, -0.27, -2.2%): Major expansion of stand up strike at Ford's Kentucky truck plant

  • First Solar (FSLR 157.50, +6.00, +4.0%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

  • Microsoft (MSFT 330.70, -1.72, -0.5%): IRS seeking additional tax payment of $28.9 bln plus penalties and interest for the tax years 2004-2013

  • Target (TGT 112.00, +3.01, +2.8%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note as sovereign yields continued dipping from their recent highs. Japan's Nikkei: +1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9%, India's Sensex: -0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's September PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 3.3%). September Bank Lending 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.1%). August Core Machinery Orders -0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -1.1%); -7.7% yr/yr (expected -7.3%; last -13.0%)

  • Australia's October MI Inflation Expectations 4.8% (last 4.6%)

  • New Zealand's September FPI -0.4% m/m (last 0.5%)


  • In news:

  • China's Sovereign Wealth Fund increased its investments in top domestic banks, though the increase was seen as just a symbolic show of faith.

  • Separately, China Securities Regulatory Commission prohibited domestic brokerages from accepting new clients for offshore trading.

  • Japan's government plans to step up investment into domestic chipmakers.



  • Major European indices trade in the green with Italy's MIB (+1.0%) showing relative strength. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%, France's CAC 40: +0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.7%.

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s August Construction Output -0.5% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 3.2%). August GDP 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 0.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.3%). August Industrial Production -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -1.1%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.0%). August Manufacturing Production -0.8% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -1.2%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 3.1%). August trade deficit GBP15.95 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.70 bln; last deficit of GBP13.91 bln)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Wunsch said that the ECB should hasten the end of pandemic purchase reinvestments, echoing comments made by policymaker Kazaks. However, there is some opposition to this idea among other members of the governing council.

  • Separately, policymaker Holzmann warned that upcoming inflation figures could be hotter than expected.

  • The Bank of England's latest quarterly survey on bank liabilities and credit conditions showed that lenders expect defaults to increase while mortgage demand is expected to fall in Q4.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +16 @ 4,393

  • DJIA Futures: +122 @ 33,927

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +53 @ 15,294

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shangai Composite +0.9%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.98 @ 84.47

  • Nat Gas -0.045 @ 3.332

  • Gold +9.95 @ 1897.25

  • Silver +0.199 @ 22.332

  • Copper +0.0205 @ 3.6325

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources ( AMR 1.08% ) provides Q3 sales update; revises FY23 outlook

  • Barrick ( GOLD 1.74% ) reports Q3 production was higher than Q2, although lower than previous plans for the quarter; continues to expect a significant increase in fourth quarter production volume

  • Canadian Solar's ( CSIQ 0.00% ) CSI Solar Co. reports Q3 updates

  • Commercial Metals ( CMC 0.98% ) misses by $0.08, beats on revs

  • Delta Air Lines ( DAL 0.42% ) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Domino's Pizza ( DPZ 0.44% ) beats by $0.87, misses on revs

  • Fastenal ( FAST 0.00% ) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line

  • First Majestic Silver ( AG 0.59% ) produces 6.3 million AgEq Oz in Q3 2023 consisting of 2.5 million silver ounces and 46,720 gold ounces

  • Hecla Mining ( HL 3.15% ) reports Q3 production results

  • Infosys ( INFY 1.34% ) reports Q3 EPS of $0.18 vs. $0.18 FactSet consensus; revs +3% to $4.72 bln vs. $4.63 bln FactSet Consensus

  • Orchid Island Capital ( ORC 0.89% ) provides Q3 earnings update; reports Book Value of $8.92

  • Osisko Gold Royalties ( OR 0.50% ) provides Q3 deliveries; earned approximately 23,292 attributable gold equivalent ounces; recorded revs of $62.1 mln; now targeting low end of 2023 GEO delivery guidance

  • QuidelOrtho ( QDEL 0.00% ) sees Q3 revs above consensus; reaffirms FY23 guidance

  • Richardson Elec ( RELL 0.00% ) beats by $0.06 (single est), beats on revs (single est)

  • Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. ( TFPM 0.76% ) registers Q3 revs of $49.4 mln, stemming from metal sales of 25,629 gold equivalent ounces; on track to achieve 2023 GEOs sales guidance of 100,000-115,000 ounces

  • Victoria's Secret ( VSCO 8.69% ) to present strategic plan; raises Q3 outlook; reaffirms FY24 revenue forecast

  • Vital Energy ( VTLE 2.31% ) reports preliminary results for Q3; total production averaged approximately 101.3 MBOE/d, above its guidance

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA 0.00% ) misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

News:

  • House Republicans have doubts on whether Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has enough votes to get elected Speaker, according to Politico

  • Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country "will crush and eliminate" Hamas, according to the New York Times

  • The Biden administration is considering freezing the $6 bln that was released to Iran as part of a prisoner swap. The administration is also not ruling out additional Iran sanctions, according to Bloomberg

  • China's sovereign wealth fund increased stake in large banks in the country, according to Bloomberg

  • China bans new offshore brokerage accounts, according to Reuters

  • AbbVie ( ABBV 0.30% ) Announces Upadacitinib Met the Primary Endpoint in Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Vitiligo as Program Advances to Phase 3

  • Alphabet ( GOOG 0.00% ): Teamsters union and community groups protest the launch of Waymo self-driving cars in LA County

  • Alvotech ( ALVO 0.00% ) receives Complete Response Letter for BLA for AVT04

  • AMC Entertainment ( AMC 5.04% ) CEO Adam Aron posted on X: "Unfortunately, last year I became the victim of an elaborate criminal extortion by a third party who was unknown to me related to false allegations about my personal life."

  • American Intl ( AIG 0.59% ) appoints updated leadership positions across its General, North America, and International Insurance divisions, effective January 1, 2024

  • Astria Therapeutics ( ATXS 0.00% ) announces exclusive worldwide license agreement with Ichnos sciences for OX40 portfolio

  • BioLineRx ( BLRX 0.00% ) announces closing of exclusive license agreement to motixafortide in Asia and concurrent strategic equity investment

  • Bristol-Myers ( BMY 0.46% ) reports Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) long-term data demonstrating durable efficacy and consistent safety for up to three years in molong-term data demonstrating durable efficacy and consistent safety for up to thderate-to-severe Plaque Psoriasis

  • Bristol-Myers ( BMY 0.46% ) announces the presentation of data from over 55 Bristol Myers Squibb-sponsored, investigator-sponsored, and collaboration studies across our oncology portfolio in more than 10 tumor types at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress 2023

  • Cyteir Therapeutics ( CYT 0.00% ) reports CYT-0851 demonstrated activity in combination with capecitabine in heavily pretreated platinum-refractory or -resistant ovarian cancer patients with a generally well tolerated safety profile

  • Digital World Acquisition Corp ( DWAC 0.00% ) details progress on PIPE Cancellations toward business combination goal; audit committee concluded that select financial statements included errors accounting of certain expenses

  • Eli Lilly's ( LLY 4.48% ) Mirikizumab helped patients with Crohn's Disease achieve long-term remission in Phase 3 Trial

  • Ford Motor ( F 0.41% ): Major expansion of stand up strike at Ford's Kentucky truck plant

  • Goldman Sachs ( GS 0.56% ) suing Malaysia in UK court over a settlement regarding its role in the 1MDB scandal, according to Bloomberg Law

  • Honda Motor ( HMC 0.77% ) and Mitsubishi Corporation sign MoU to explore new businesses in EV Age

  • Horizon Technology Finance ( HRZN 0.00% ) Provides Third Quarter 2023 Portfolio Update

  • Illumina ( ILMN 0.00% ): EU Commission orders Illumina to unwind its completed acquisition of GRAIL

  • Intl Game Tech. PLC ( IGT 0.60% ) announces that its subsidiaries, IGT Global Services Limited and IGT Global Solutions Corporation, signed a 10-year contract extension with Pan Malaysian Pools SDN BHD

  • IPG Photonics ( IPGP 0.00% ) announces that COO Felix Stukalin passed away on October 6

  • Main Street Capital ( MAIN 0.20% ) reports recent activity in its private loan portfolio

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.00% ): IRS seeking additional tax payment of $28.9 bln plus penalties and interest for the tax years 2004-2013

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.00% ): OpenAI to push through significant updates for developers next month, making it less expensive to create applications, according to Reuters

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.00% ): OpenAI planning major update to lower costs, according to Reuters

  • MSC Industrial ( MSM 2.31% ) increases quarterly cash dividend 5% to $0.83/share from $0.79/share

  • Netflix ( NFLX 0.00% ): Negotiations between the AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA have been suspended after SAG-AFTRA presented its most recent proposal on October 11

  • Olema Pharmaceuticals ( OLMA 0.00% ) announces new preclinical data regarding the discovery of novel compounds targeting KAT6

  • Orthofix ( OFIX 0.00% ) announces the 510k clearance and full commercial launch of OsteoCove

  • Oscar Health ( OSCR 3.76% ) announces 2024 market expansion plans

  • Pan Am Silver ( PAAS 1.96% ) will restart operations at La Colorada mine in Mexico on October 16, 2023, following a shift change and transition from care and maintenance activities

  • Pfizer ( PFE 0.18% ): FDA approves Pfizer's BRAFTOVI + MEKTOVI for BRAF V600E-mutant metastatic non-small cell lung cancer

  • Primoris Services ( PRIM 1.41% ) received solar project awards with combined value of approximately $230 mln

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ): New data for Genentech's Ocrevus show that after 10 years of treatment 77% of people with relapsing multiple sclerosis were free from disability progression and 92% continue to walk unaided

  • Scholar Rock ( SRRK 0.00% ) to Advance Antimyostatin Program to Develop Novel Therapies for Cardiometabolic Disorders

  • The Oncology Institute ( TOI 0.00% ) appointed Jeremy Castle as COO, effective September 5, 2023

  • Toyota Motor ( TM 0.50% ) & Idemitsu announce beginning of cooperation toward mass production of all-solid-state batteries for BEVs

  • TransUnion ( TRU 0.40% ) has agreed to settle two matters with federal regulators for a total of $23 million

  • XPEL ( XPEL 0.00% ) confirms it is currently in discussions with multiple OEM's about adding new or expanding existing programs for XPEL products

M&A:

  • Abcam ( ABCM 0.00% ): Independent Directors of Abcam Highlight Compelling Reasons for Shareholders to Support Proposed Sale to Danaher (DHR)

  • Albemarle ( ALB 1.68% ): Liontown Resources Limited provides update on ALB proposal

  • Apollo Global Management ( APO 0.56% ) to acquire The Restaurant Group plc; acquisition price values TRG's entire issued and to be issued share capital at approximately 506 million on a fully diluted basis

  • AZEK ( AZEK 1.59% ) enters into definitive agreement to sell its Vycom business; terms of deal not disclosed

  • Dover ( DOV 0.82% ) to divest DESTACO business unit for $680 mln

  • Genetron Health ( GTH 0.00% ) Entered into Definitive Merger Agreement for Going Private Transaction

  • Newmont Goldcorp ( NEM 1.74% ) shareholders vote overwhelmingly to approve acquisition of Newcrest (NCMGY)

  • OptimizeRx ( OPRX 0.00% ) to acquire Scottsdale, Arizona-based Healthy Offers, dba Medicx Health; reports prelim Q3 results

  • Rithm Capital ( RITM 1.39% ) and Sculptor Capital (SCU) amend merger agreement; SCU shareholders to now receive $12/share, up from prior $11.15/share offer

Syndicate:

  • Astria Therapeutics ( ATXS 0.00% ) prices $64 mln underwritten offering

  • Cerevel Therapeutics ( CERE 0.00% ) prices offering of 19,728,189 shares of common stock $22.81 per share

  • OrganiGram ( OGI 0.00% ) files final base shelf prospectus of up to CAD500 mln of of common shares, debt securities, subscription receipts, warrants, and units

  • Scholar Rock ( SRRK 0.00% ) prices offering of 12,408,760 shares of its common stock at $6.8

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price: No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • OMGA +13.5%, ATXS +9%, OGI +2.5%, RELL +2.3%, VSCO +2.2%, CERE +1.3%, HL +1%, AIG +0.7%, GOOG +0.6%, PAAS +0.6%, NEM +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • NGM -8.5%, ITOS -5.7%, AZEK -1.7%, MSM -1.2%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Clorox (CLX) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $120

  • Warby Parker (WRBY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research; tgt $17


  • Downgrades:

  • Beyond Meat (BYND) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $5

  • Carvana (CVNA) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $37

  • ResMed (RMD) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $202


  • Others:

  • Bill.com (BILL) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $144

  • Block (SQ) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Coursera (COUR) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $24

  • Fidelity Nat'l Info (FIS) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Fiserv (FI) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Flywire (FLYW) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $40

  • Global Payments (GPN) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $140

  • Mastercard (MA) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $465

  • PayPal (PYPL) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Shopify (SHOP) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $64

  • Visa (V) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners

  • Zegna Group (ZGN) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $11.60


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: CPI for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.6%)

  • 08:30 ET: Core CPI for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.3%)

  • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Oct. 7 (Briefing.com Consensus 214K; Prior 207K)

  • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Sep 30 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1664K)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Oct 7 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior +86 bcf)

  • 11:00 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Oct 7 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -2.22M)

  • 14:00 ET: Treasury Budget for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior $89.2B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Oct 9)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Tuesday (Oct 10)

  • Morning: NEOG, PEP

  • Afternoon: AZZ


  • Wednesday (Oct 11)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Thursday (Oct 12)

  • Morning: DAL, DPZ, FAST, WBA

  • Afternoon: SGH


  • Friday (Oct 13)

  • Morning: BLK, C, UNH, JPM, WFC

  • Afternoon: None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shangai Composite +0.9%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note as sovereign yields continued dipping from their recent highs. China's Sovereign Wealth Fund increased its investments in top domestic banks, though the increase was seen as just a symbolic show of faith. Separately, China Securities Regulatory Commission prohibited domestic brokerages from accepting new clients for offshore trading. Japan's government plans to step up investment into domestic chipmakers.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's September PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 3.3%). September Bank Lending 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.1%). August Core Machinery Orders -0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -1.1%); -7.7% yr/yr (expected -7.3%; last -13.0%)

  • Australia's October MI Inflation Expectations 4.8% (last 4.6%)

  • New Zealand's September FPI -0.4% m/m (last 0.5%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.8%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.9%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9%

  • India's Sensex: -0.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 149.15

  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.2938

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 83.25

Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4%

Major European indices trade in the green with Italy's MIB (+1.0%) showing relative strength. European Central Bank policymaker Wunsch said that the ECB should hasten the end of pandemic purchase reinvestments, echoing comments made by policymaker Kazaks. However, there is some opposition to this idea among other members of the governing council. Separately, policymaker Holzmann warned that upcoming inflation figures could be hotter than expected. The Bank of England's latest quarterly survey on bank liabilities and credit conditions showed that lenders expect defaults to increase while mortgage demand is expected to fall in Q4.

  • In economic data:

  • U.K.'s August Construction Output -0.5% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 3.2%). August GDP 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 0.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.3%). August Industrial Production -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%; last -1.1%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.0%). August Manufacturing Production -0.8% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -1.2%); 2.8% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 3.1%). August trade deficit GBP15.95 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.70 bln; last deficit of GBP13.91 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.5%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.7%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.4%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.0%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.7%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0618

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2304

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.9007

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