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12/09/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 39 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 49 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Equity futures point to a lower open. Market participants continue to monitor the price action in Apple (AAPL), along with the movement in oil prices ($87.47/bbl, +0.60, +0.7%). Treasury yields, which also remain in focus, are little changed from yesterday's settlement levels.

The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.95% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.26%.

New York Fed President Williams commented that U.S. monetary policy is in a good place, but more data needs to be analyzed to determine how to proceed with rates, according to Bloomberg.

Today's economic data is limited to:

  • 10:00 ET: July Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.5%)

  • 15:00 ET: July Consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $15.8 bln; prior $17.9 bln)

In corporate news:

  • RH 1.88% (RH 241.79, -26.76, -7.3%): beats by $1.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line; continues to expect a challenging luxury housing market for FY24

  • DocuSign (DOCU 52.66, +0.53, +1.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus; increases stock repurchase program by $300 mln

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 43.20, +2.84, +7.0%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI 11.80, +1.29, +12.3%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Guidewire Software (GWRE 85.44, +0.60, +0.7%): beats by $0.36, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP 6.56, -0.84, -11.4%): suspends common stock dividend, citing Hollywood strikes

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 89.69, -0.36, -0.4%): reports August revs decreased 13.5% yr/yr to NT$188.69 bln

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed due to severe weather. Japan's Nikkei: -1.2% (-0.3% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED (-1.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -0.2% (-0.5% for the week), India's Sensex: +0.5% (+1.9% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: UNCH (-0.6% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (-1.8% for the week).

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's July Overall Wage Income 1.3% yr/yr (last 2.3%) and July Current Account surplus JPY2.772 trln (expected surplus of JPY2.295 trln; last surplus of JPY1.509 trln). Q2 GDP 1.2% qtr/qtr (expected 1.5%; last 0.8%); 4.8% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 3.2%). Q2 GDP Capital Expenditure -1.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 1.4%) and Q2 Private Consumption -0.6% qtr/qtr (expected -0.5%; last 0.5%). August Economy Watchers Current Index 53.6 (expected 54.4; last 54.4)

  • South Korea's July Current Account surplus $3.58 bln (last surplus of $5.87 bln)


  • In news:

  • Home buyers in China's Nanjing will receive subsidies for new purchases.

  • Chevron's LNG workers in Australia began a strike after failing to reach a contract agreement.

  • Standard & Poor's affirmed New Zealand's AA+ rating with a Stable outlook.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1% (-1.1% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.6% (-1.1% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (-0.5% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.2% (-1.4% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.6% (-2.3% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3% (-1.6% week-to-date).

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's August CPI 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 6.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 6.2%)

  • France's July Industrial Production 0.8% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.9%)

  • Spain's July Industrial Production -1.8% yr/yr (expected -2.0%; last -3.2%)


  • In news:

  • Germany's Institute for Economic Research lowered its 2023 GDP forecast for Germany to -0.4% from -0.2% while Citigroup lowered its 2023 growth forecast for the eurozone to 0.4% from 0.8%.

  • There is still some uncertainty about next week's rate decision from the European Central Bank, though overall expectations are leaning toward a pause.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -8 @ 4,443

  • DJIA Futures: -58 @ 34,443

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -39 @ 15,220

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite -0.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.58 @ 87.45

  • Nat Gas +0.057 @ 2.636

  • Gold +4.45 @ 1946.95

  • Silver +0.048 @ 23.288

  • Copper -0.0390 @ 3.723


Earnings/Guidance:

  • American Outdoor Brands ( AOUT 0.00% ) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reiterates FY24 net sales growth of +3.5%

  • Braze ( BRZE 0.00% ) beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES ( IMOS 0.00% ) reports August revs increased 6.9% yr/yr to NT$1.83 bln

  • DocuSign ( DOCU 0.00% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus; increases stock repurchase program by $300 mln

  • Forward Air ( FWRD 0.00% ) provides Q3-to-date update through August: weight per shipment increased 7.8%

  • Guidewire Software ( GWRE 1.32% ) beats by $0.36, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals ( KALV 0.00% ) provides operational update

  • National Beverage ( FIZZ 0.00% ) reports EPS in-line (single est), misses on revs (single est)

  • Planet Labs ( PL 3.65% ) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • RH ( RH 1.88% ) beats by $1.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line; continues to expect a challenging luxury housing market for FY24

  • Smartsheet ( SMAR 1.86% ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Smith & Wesson Brands ( SWBI 0.00% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM 0.04% ) reports August revs decreased 13.5% yr/yr to NT$188.69 bln

  • Trex ( TREX 1.98% ) announces 5-year financial targets; expects sales of $1.8-1.9 bln in FY28

  • Zumiez ( ZUMZ 0.00% ) beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

News:

  • President Biden does not plan on meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the G-20, according to Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams commented that U.S. monetary policy is in a good place, but more data needs to be analyzed to determine how to proceed with rates, according to Bloomberg

  • Hurricane Lee expected to intensify into Category 4 storm by Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center on WPBF

  • President Biden and leaders of Saudi Arabia, India, and UAE optimistic in announcing a railway deal this Saturday connecting the Middle East, according to Axios

  • Health insurance costs are expected to see largest increase in more than 10 years, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Las Vegas hotel workers could soon strike, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • California passed 11% excise tax on gun and ammunition sales, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • AerCap ( AER 0.06% ) approves share repurchase program authorizing total repurchases of up to $650 mln through December 31, 2023

  • Alibaba ( BABA 1.49% ): Ant Group aiming to introduce financial artificial intelligence model, according to Reuters

  • Allegheny Tech ( ATI 0.13% ) awarded contract by Bechtel Plant Machinery to support development of engineered part solutions in support of the U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ): Huawei will challenge Apple with release of high speed smartphone, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ): China expands iPhone ban to local government, according to Nikkei

  • Boeing ( BA 0.12% ) awarded not-to-exceed U.S. Air Force contract of $475 mln for the F-15 Japan Super Interceptor Program

  • BriaCell Therapeutics ( BCTX 0.00% ) announces the completion of patient enrollment in its Phase 2 clinical study and reports clinical data showing strong survival benefit and clinical benefit in advanced metastatic breast cancer patients

  • Buenaventura SA ( BVN 0.84% ) receives EIA approval for Yumpag project

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 1.22% ) discloses it entered into exchange and subscription agreements with a limited number of holders of its 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2025

  • Chevron ( CVX 2.06% ): Strikes begin at Chevron liquified natural gas plants in Australia, according to Reuters

  • Elanco ( ELAN 1.64% ) Launches Varenzin-CA1 (molidustat oral suspension) - the First-of-its-Kind Oral Treatment for Anemia in Cats with Chronic Kidney Disease

  • Equitrans Midstream ( ETRN 1.69% ) appoints Diana M. Charletta as CEO; appoints Thomas F. Karam as Executive Chairman, effective January 1, 2024

  • eXp World Holdings ( EXPI 0.00% ) launches eXp Luxury in Canada

  • Faraday Future Intelligent Electric ( FFIE 0.00% ) reaffirms commitment to long-term growth and shareholder value

  • Goldman Sachs ( GS 0.27% ) CEO says capital markets could get a boost from upcoming tech IPOs, according to CNBC

  • Goldman Sachs ( GS 0.27% ) preparing another round of job cuts for employees with poor performance, according to Financial Times

  • Guess ( GES 1.43% ) founder Paul Marciano facing probe into treatment of models, according to the New York Post

  • Hudson Pacific Properties ( HPP 0.42% ) suspends common stock dividend

  • IHS Holding Limited ( IHS 10.76% ) issues statement regarding renewals in Nigeria

  • Madison Square Garden Entertainment ( MSGE 0.37% ) and Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) forming Crown Properties Collection to manage marquee partnerships with entertainment brands worldwide

  • PVH ( PVH 1.35% ): Revman enters into license agreement with Calvin Klein for the distribution of home accessories in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico; agreement's initial term is through 2028

  • Rocket Lab USA ( RKLB 0.00% ) schedules its next Electron launch during a window that opens September 19, 2023

  • Select Medical ( SEM 1.34% ) names Michael Malatesta as CFO, effective October 1

  • Spotify ( SPOT 1.41% ) aiming to offer free audiobook trial to subscribers, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • VICI Properties ( VICI 0.42% ) increases quarterly dividend 6.4% to $0.415/share from $0.39/share

  • Wal Mart ( WMT 0.35% ) lowers starting wages for some new employees, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 1.15% ) amends lawsuit against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, dropping all but free speech claim, according to CNBC

  • Zoom Video ( ZM 0.00% ) inching higher after talking with regulators regarding Microsoft (MSFT) competition concerns, according to Bloomberg

M&A:

  • Carlisle Cos ( CSL 10.75% ) announces a process to sell Carlisle Interconnect Technologies; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Metalla Royalty & Streaming ( MTA 0.59% ) and Nova Royalty Corp. (NOVRF) to combine; Beedie Capital also agrees to subscribe for C$15 mln in equity placement to MTA

Syndicate:

  • Delek Logistics Partners ( DKL 0.46% ) files for 13,565,410 common units by selling unitholder

  • Dutch Bros ( BROS 2.78% ) prices offering of 11,538,461 shares of common stock at $26.00 per share

  • FiscalNote Holdings ( NOTE 5.31% ) files for 11,215,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholder

  • Karat Packaging ( KRT 0.00% ) prices secondary offering of 1.0 mln shares of common stock at $21.00 per share

  • Phreesia ( PHR 0.14% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Plains GP ( PAGP 0.00% ) files for 388,839 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • FFIE +16.5%, SWBI +11.5%, SMAR +9%, DOCU +3%, TREX +2%, IMOS +2%, BRZE +1.8%, MSGE +1.3%, EXPI +1.1%, CSL +1%, FWRD +0.7%, AER +0.7%, VSH +0.5%, FIZZ +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • KRT -13.3%, HPP -9.7%, ZUMZ -8.6%, RH -7.7%, PL -5.5%, PHR -2.7%, GWRE -1.4%, RKLB -1.3%, DAKT -0.9%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Adobe (ADBE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt raised to $630

  • Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $45

  • First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $235

  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $95

  • Omega Health (OHI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt raised to $35

  • Petrobras (PBR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Bradesco BBI; tgt $15

  • TC Energy (TRP) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo


  • Downgrades:

  • ABM Industries (ABM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $43

  • Clarivate (CLVT) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $7

  • DigitalOcean (DOCN) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $25

  • Essex Property (ESS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $260

  • Summit Materials (SUM) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

  • Vir Biotechnology (VIR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $14


  • Others:

  • Arch Capital (ACGL) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $80

  • Asure Software (ASUR) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $15

  • AXIS Capital (AXS) initiated with a Sell at Goldman; tgt $51

  • ChargePoint (CHPT) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $9

  • Everest Group (EG) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $449

  • EVgo Inc. (EVGO) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $5

  • Lucid Group (LCID) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $6

  • Mister Car Wash (MCW) resumed with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Procter & Gamble (PG) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair

  • RenaissanceRe (RNR) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $242

  • Snowflake (SNOW) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $200

  • Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $4

  • Vaxxinity (VAXX) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $7


Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: Wholesale Inventories for July (Briefing.com Consensus -0.1%; Prior -0.5%)

  • 15:00 ET: Consumer Credit for July (Briefing.com Consensus $15.8B; Prior $17.9B)

Earnings:

  • Tuesday (Sep 5)

  • Morning: BRC, CRMT

  • Afternoon: ASAN, ZS, GTLB, AVAV


  • Wednesday (Sep 6)

  • Morning: PLAB, CNM

  • Afternoon: INTA, AEO, PATH, SPWH, AI, DSGX, PHR, CHPT, CXM, BASE, CVGW, PLAY, YEXT, CURV, GME, VRNT


  • Thursday (Sep 7)

  • Morning: SAIC, ABM, GIII, TTC, DOOO

  • Afternoon: GWRE, ZUMZ, SMAR, SMTC, BRZE, DOCU, SWBI


  • Friday (Sep 8)

  • Morning: KR


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite -0.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed due to severe weather. Home buyers in China's Nanjing will receive subsidies for new purchases. Chevron's LNG workers in Australia began a strike after failing to reach a contract agreement. Standard & Poor's affirmed New Zealand's AA+ rating with a Stable outlook.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's July Overall Wage Income 1.3% yr/yr (last 2.3%) and July Current Account surplus JPY2.772 trln (expected surplus of JPY2.295 trln; last surplus of JPY1.509 trln). Q2 GDP 1.2% qtr/qtr (expected 1.5%; last 0.8%); 4.8% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 3.2%). Q2 GDP Capital Expenditure -1.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 1.4%) and Q2 Private Consumption -0.6% qtr/qtr (expected -0.5%; last 0.5%). August Economy Watchers Current Index 53.6 (expected 54.4; last 54.4)

  • South Korea's July Current Account surplus $3.58 bln (last surplus of $5.87 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.2% (-0.3% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED (-1.0% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.2% (-0.5% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +0.5% (+1.9% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: UNCH (-0.6% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (-1.8% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 147.34

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.3515

  • USD/INR: -0.2% to 82.97

Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.2%

Major European indices trade in the red. Germany's Institute for Economic Research lowered its 2023 GDP forecast for Germany to -0.4% from -0.2% while Citigroup lowered its 2023 growth forecast for the eurozone to 0.4% from 0.8%. There is still some uncertainty about next week's rate decision from the European Central Bank, though overall expectations are leaning toward a pause.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's August CPI 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 6.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 6.2%)

  • France's July Industrial Production 0.8% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.9%)

  • Spain's July Industrial Production -1.8% yr/yr (expected -2.0%; last -3.2%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1% (-1.1% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: -0.6% (-1.1% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2% (-0.5% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: -0.2% (-1.4% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.6% (-2.3% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3% (-1.6% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.0704

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.2477

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.8912


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