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11/10/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 59 points and are trading 0.4% fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 81 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

Stock futures point to a higher open. Treasury yields continue to move lower, which has been supportive for stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.97% and the 10-yr note yield is down ten basis points to 4.56%.

Those moves have been helped by ongoing flight-to-safety along with placating remarks made of late by several Fed officials who suggested the Fed may not have to raise rates because of the tightening in financial conditions that has occurred with the jump in long-term rates.

News that Exxon Mobil (XOM) will acquire Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) for $58 billion valued at $253/share has also contributed to the positive bias.

Uncertainty around the Israel-Hamas conflict has been overshadowed again in the absence of any worrying developments.

In other news, Republicans will hold an internal vote for House Speaker today, but they will need 217 votes before going to the floor for an official vote, according to Politico.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 0.6% following last week's 6.0% decline. Other data today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: September PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.7%) and core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: September Treasury Budget (prior $89.2 billion) and FOMC Minutes from September 19-20

In corporate news:

  • Exxon (XOM 107.75, -2.70, -2.4%): close to all stock deal for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) for $58 billion valued at $253/share

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 22.77, +0.39, +1.7%): names Tim Wentworth as CEO

  • Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 96.06, +3.05, +3.3%): announces decision to stop the once-weekly injectable semaglutide kidney outcomes trial, FLOW, based on interim analysis

  • DaVita (DVA 77.20, -14.08, -15.4%), Baxter (BAX 34.27, -3.05, -8.2%), Fresenius Medical (FMS 17.67, -3.28, -15.7%): down big on the NVO news

  • Birkenstock Holding (BIRK): prices 32.3 mln share IPO at $46, slightly below the midpoint of the $44-$49 expected price range, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Boeing (BA 195.00, +1.47, +0.8%): UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating

  • CAVA Group (CAVA 33.21, +1.13, +3.5%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a good showing, registering gains on all fronts in the wake of another day of positive-minded trading in the U.S that was helped by lower bond yields and what remained a two-party war between Israel and Hamas. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.6%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.0%, Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.7%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's October Reuters Tankan Index 4.0 (last 4.0); Machine Tool Orders -11.2% yr/yr (last -17.5%)

  • South Korea's August Current Account $4.81 bln (last $3.74 bln)


  • In news:

  • Other support factors for Asian markets included better-than-expected operating results from South Korean memory chip maker Samsung and reports that China is considering new stimulus measures.

  • Separately, Kyodo reported that the Bank of Japan is thinking about raising its FY23 core CPI forecast to 3.0% from 2.5%.



  • Major European indices are trading mixed with modest moves above and below their unchanged lines after registering strong gains in Tuesday's session. STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%, Germany's DAX: +0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's Final September CPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.3%; last +0.3%) and +4.5% yr/yr (expected +4.5%; last +4.5%)


  • In news:

  • Accordingly, there is some wait-and-see thinking that is holding things back today, as participants wait to see if the bourses can build on that rally.

  • Lower sovereign bond yields remain a welcome source of support.

  • Luxury stocks have been a drag on France's CAC 40 following LVMH's Q3 sales report on Tuesday.

  • ECB member Knot sounded an encouraging note about waning inflation shocks, but said the ECB is ready to act again if the 2% inflation goal remains elusive, according to Bloomberg.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures +14 @ 4,372

  • DJIA Futures: +96 @ 33,836

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +69 @ 15,200

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC -0.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.79 @ 85.18

  • Nat Gas -0.007 @ 3.375

  • Gold +9.50 @ 1884.80

  • Silver +0.259 @ 22.212

  • Copper -0.0113 @ 3.6227

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ASE Technology ( ASX 2.13% ) reports September revs delcined 19.7% yr/yr to NT$53.54 bln

  • AZZ ( AZZ 7.85% ) beats by $0.19, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • DHT ( DHT 2.80% ) provides business update: estimates time charter equivalent earnings for its fleet at $42,500/day in Q3

  • E2open ( ETWO 40.89% ) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus; expect pressures on growth rate to persist for remainder of FY24

  • Endeavour Silver ( EXK 0.21% ) reports third quarter 2023 production of 1,148,735 silver ounces (oz) and 9,089 gold oz, for silver equivalent production of 1.9 million oz

  • Gatos Silver ( GATO 4.50% ) reports Q3 production

  • HP Inc. ( HPQ 1.42% ) sees FY24 EPS in-line with consensus; raises dividend by 5%

  • Luxfer ( LXFR 14.17% ) sees Q3 EPS and revs below expectations

  • Pulmonx ( LUNG 1.94% ) CFO Derrick Sung has stepped down; co guides Q3 revs above consensus

  • Rayonier Adv. Materials ( RYAM 4.59% ) outlined financial growth strategy during its Investor Day; targeting $325 mln in annual EBITDA over the next five years

  • Samsung ( SSNLF ) sees Q3 Operating profit of KRW2.3-2.5 tln; revs of KRW66-68 tln

  • Silk Road Medical ( SILK 53.82% ) guides Q3 and FY23 revenue below consensus; also announces that CEO Erica Rogers plans to retire

  • SilverCrest Metals ( SILV 6.11% ) provides Q3 operational results; recovered 15,700 ounces of gold and 1.49 million ounces of silver; sold 14,500 ounces of gold at an average realized price of $1,931/oz and 1.53 million ounces of silver at an average realized price of $23.41/oz

News:

  • Israel is hitting hundreds of targets in Gaza with airstrikes, according to CNN

  • Republicans will hold an internal vote for House Speaker today, but will need 217 votes before gong to the floor for an official vote, according to Politico

  • Electric vehicle buyers will get instant $7500 tax credit starting next year, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issues statement on the International Monetary and Financial Committee

  • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voting FOMC member) says "policy rate may need to rise further and stay restrictive for some time to return inflation to the FOMC's goal"

  • White House takes new actions regarding "junk fees' for banks

  • AllianceBernstein ( APAM 0.30% ) announces that preliminary assets under management decreased to $669 billion during September 2023 from $694 billion at the end of August

  • Amazon ( AMZN 0.25% ) testing new "buy again" feature, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Ares Management ( ARES 1.49% ) and Vinci Partners (VINP) form strategic partnership to accelerate the growth of Vinci's platform in Latin America and to collaborate on distribution and product development

  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt ( APAM 0.30% ) reports preliminary assets under management (AUM) of $136.5 bln as of September 30, 2023; Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $66.6 billion of total firm AUM

  • AssetMark ( AMK 0.32% ) issues its September AMK report; platform assets increased 25.4% yr/yr to $99.6 bln, net flows were $448 million in the month of September, up 96.5% yr/yr

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.20% ): Alexion data at 9th Joint ECTRIMS-ACTRIMS Meeting (MSMilan2023) showcase impact of C5 inhibition in NMOSD

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.20% ) advances scientific leadership across multiple cancers with first data from four pivotal Phase III trials at ESMO

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.20% ) advances its ambition to eliminate cancer as a cause of death with new data across its robust portfolio and pipeline at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress

  • Azul S.A. ( AZUL 1.09% ) reports Septemeber traffic increased 18.7% yr/yr

  • Bank of Montreal ( BMO 0.78% ) Capital Markets CEO Dan Barclay to retire; appoints Alan Tannenbaum as successor, effective November 1

  • Bristol Myers Squibb ( BMY 0.76% ) Presents New Zeposia (ozanimod) Data on Long-Term Disease Progression and Cognition in Patients with Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis

  • Bristol-Myers ( BMY 0.76% ): Cellares announces expanded agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb to include second CAR-T program in Cellares' Technology Adoption Partnership Program

  • Caledonia Mining ( CMCL 1.39% ) reports record quarterly production at Blanket Mine

  • Carlisle Cos ( CSL 0.82% ) reclassifying results of operations for Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, or CIT, as discontinued operations beginning in Q3

  • Cisco ( CSCO 0.30% ) appoints Dan Schulman, who most recently held position of President and CEO of PayPal Holdings (PYPL), to its Board of Directors, effective October 10, 2023

  • Copa Holdings ( CPA 2.36% ) reports monthly traffic increased 14.1% yr/yr

  • E2open ( ETWO 40.89% ) CEO Michael Farlekas departing; Andrew Appel appointed Interim CEO

  • Ericsson ( ERIC 0.31% ) announces the appointment of Chris Houghton to Chief Operating Officer (COO) and sa Tamsons to Head of Business Area Enterprise Wireless Solutions

  • Franklin Resources ( BEN 0.17% ) reports preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1.37 trillion at September 30, 2023, compared to $1.42 trillion at August 31

  • GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK 0.86% ) provides update on Zantac litigation

  • Google ( GOOG 1.42% ) says "Sonos has been running a years-long, misleading campaign against helpful features in our Google (GOOG) Home devices and smart speaker devices on spurious patent grounds"

  • Honeywell ( HON 0.56% ) and GranBio Technologies to work together to produce carbon neutral sustainable aviation fuel

  • Humana ( HUM 1.57% ) has named health care industry veteran Jim Rechtin as President and Chief Operating Officer of Humana, effective January 8, 2024, as part of a long-planned CEO transition

  • Incyte ( INCY 0.44% ): Knight Therapeutics's Brazilian affiliate submits marketing authorization application for pemigatinib to ANVISA, the Brazilian health regulatory agency

  • Invesco ( IVZ 0.90% ) reports assets under management of $1.487 bln for September 30, 2023, down 2.6% from previous month end

  • Lattice Semi ( LSCC 0.46% ) FPGAs selected to deliver Mazda's next gen driving experiences

  • Lazard ( LAZ 2.64% ) reports September 2023 assets under management

  • Natural Gas Services ( NGS 0.48% ) appointed industry veteran Brian L. Tucker to the position of President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • NeoGames ( NGMS 0.45% ) issues statement regarding Israel: entire business in the region continues to operate normally

  • New Found Gold Corp ( NFGC 1.35% ) intercepts 92 g/t Au Over 2m at Monte Carlo

  • Novo Nordisk A/S ( NVO 4.10% ) announces decision to stop the once-weekly injectable semaglutide kidney outcomes trial, FLOW, based on interim analysis

  • Plug Power ( PLUG 4.82% ) preferred supplier of 550 mw PEM electrolyzers to fortescue for proposed Gibson island project

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ): Genentech's Ocrevus Twice-Yearly, 10-Minute Subcutaneous Injection Was Non-Inferior to Intravenous Infusion and Provided Near-Complete Suppression of Brain Lesions

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ): First-Ever Clinical Trial Exclusively in Black and Hispanic / Latinx People Living With Multiple Sclerosis Shows Genentech's Ocrevus Effectively Manages Disease Activity

  • Sana Biotechnology ( SANA 3.29% ) Announces Increased Focus on Hypoimmune-Related Pipeline with the Potential to Deliver Clinical Proof of Concept Data from Four Programs in 2023 and 2024 with a 2024 Operating Burn under $200M

  • Sherwin-Williams ( SHW 0.81% ) Board of Directors elects Heidi Petz as CEO effective January 1, 2024

  • Simpson Manufacturing ( SSD 0.09% ) experienced disruptions in its Information Technology (IT) infrastructure and applications resulting from a cybersecurity incident

  • Skechers USA ( SKX 0.08% ) has obtained a European Union-wide preliminary injunction against Dockers by Gerli for selling a shoe style that infringes on Skechers' proprietary Skechers Hands Free Slip-ins designs

  • Stellantis ( STLA 4.14% ) & Samsung SDI (SSNLF) announce Kokomo, Indiana as site for second U.S. StarPlus energy gigafactory

  • Thor Industries ( THO 1.82% ) increases its quarterly dividend approximately 7% to $0.48/share; 2.1% annual yield

  • TriNet Group ( TNET 0.20% ) announces a collaboration with Healthee, an AI-powered health and wellness experience provider

  • Victory Capital ( VCTR 0.77% ) reports total assets under management of $153.5 billion as of September 30, 2023, down 5.2% from August 31, 2023

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA 1.72% ) names Tim Wentworth as CEO

  • Whirlpool ( WHR 0.88% ): UK CMA issues update on investigation of WHR / Arelik JV

  • Xpeng ( XPEV 3.19% ) suspended executive over corruption, according to Financial Times

M&A:

  • Alamo Group ( ALG 1.59% ) acquires Royal Truck & Equipment, a manufacturer of truck mounted highway attenuator trucks; financial details not disclosed

  • Astra Space ( ASTR 11.45% ) mulling selling a 51% stake in space propulsion unit, according to Bloomberg

  • Blackstone ( BX 1.72% ) held discussions with Disney (DIS) about purchasing stake in India unit, according to Reuters

  • Central Valley Bancorp ( CVCY 0.00% ) and Community West Bancshares (CWBC) to merge

  • Gentex ( GNTX 0.23% ): Avalon Park Group enters into Stock Purchase Agreement with Gentex to sell 50% of its total ownership stake in VOXX International (VOXX)

  • Pioneer Natural Resources ( PXD 0.35% ): ExxonMobil (XOM) announces merger with PXD in an all-stock transaction valued at $253/share

  • The Cigna Group's ( CI 0.11% ) benefits solution division Evernorth Health Services acquiring the technology and clinical capabilities of Bright.md to enhance MDLIVE's virtual care; financial details not disclosed

Syndicate:

  • Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd. ( BNRE 1.90% ) formally commenced offer to holders of Class A Limited Voting Shares of Brookfield Corporation (BN) to voluntarily exchange up to 40 mln BN Shares for newly-issued Brookfield Reinsurance Shares on a one-for-one basis

  • Civitas Resources ( CIVI 0.28% ) files for 13,538,472 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

  • Disc Medicine ( IRON 2.06% ) enters into an agreement with Jefferies to sell up to $59.7 mln of its common stock

  • Mobilicom Ltd. ( MOB 10.00% ) files for $50 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Northern Oil & Gas ( NOG 3.16% ) prices offering of 6.5 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $252.7 mln

  • Orchestra BioMed ( OBIO 0.00% ) files for 22,221,440 shares of common stock by selling shareholders; relates to warrants

  • Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ( PSNY 3.62% ) files $1.0 bln mixed shelf offering

  • TD Synnex ( SNX 2.72% ) files for 44,961,612 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

IPOs:

  • Priced to Trade:

  • Birkenstock Holding (NYSE: BIRK): The Germany-based maker of sandals and footwear priced its 32.3 mln share IPO at $46, slightly below the midpoint of the $44-$49 expected price range.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • VOXX +11.7%, IMRN +5.4%, AZZ +3.9%, STRO +3.8%, OBIO +2.8%, NVO +2.5%, SILV +2.2%, WBA +2.2%, LUNG +2%, AB +1.9%, CVCY +1.8%, VKTX +1.2%, PXD +1.1%, THO +1%, IVZ +0.9%, HPQ +0.9%, ARES +0.7%, AZUL +0.6%, GSK +0.6%, ASX +0.6%, LSCC +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • SILK -37.9%, HYLN -34.1%, MOB -17.6%, ETWO -17.3%, DVA -16%, PSNY -7.2%, NOG -4.1%, IRON -2%, XOM -2%, AMK -1.9%, CWBC -1.8%, SNX -1.5%, NGMS -1.2%, GATO -1%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Ball Corp (BALL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $59

  • CAVA Group (CAVA) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $41

  • O-I Glass (OI) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $18

  • PPG Industries (PPG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $160


  • Downgrades:

  • Arista Networks (ANET) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $190

  • FleetCor (FLT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $302

  • Olin (OLN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $52

  • Portillo's (PTLO) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $19


  • Others:

  • CAVA Group (CAVA) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $33

  • WillScot Mobile Mini (WSC) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $52


Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Oct 7 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -6.0%)

  • 08:30 ET: PPI for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.7%)

  • 08:30 ET: Core PPI for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes Sep 19-20

  • 14:00 ET: Treasury Budget for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior $89.2B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Oct 9)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Tuesday (Oct 10)

  • Morning: NEOG, PEP

  • Afternoon: AZZ


  • Wednesday (Oct 11)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Thursday (Oct 12)

  • Morning: DAL, DPZ, FAST, WBA

  • Afternoon: SGH


  • Friday (Oct 13)

  • Morning: BLK, C, UNH, JPM, WFC

  • Afternoon: None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a good showing, registering gains on all fronts in the wake of another day of positive-minded trading in the U.S that was helped by lower bond yields and what remained a two-party war between Israel and Hamas. Other support factors for Asian markets included better-than-expected operating results from South Korean memory chip maker Samsung and reports that China is considering new stimulus measures. Separately, Kyodo reported that the Bank of Japan is thinking about raising its FY23 core CPI forecast to 3.0% from 2.5%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's October Reuters Tankan Index 4.0 (last 4.0); Machine Tool Orders -11.2% yr/yr (last -17.5%)

  • South Korea's August Current Account $4.81 bln (last $3.74 bln)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.3%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.6%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +2.0%

  • Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.7%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: flat at 148.67

  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.3012

  • USD/INR: flat at 83.185

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC -0.3%

Major European indices are trading mixed with modest moves above and below their unchanged lines after registering strong gains in Tuesday's session. Accordingly, there is some wait-and-see thinking that is holding things back today, as participants wait to see if the bourses can build on that rally. Lower sovereign bond yields remain a welcome source of support. Luxury stocks have been a drag on France's CAC 40 following LVMH's Q3 sales report on Tuesday. ECB member Knot sounded an encouraging note about waning inflation shocks, but said the ECB is ready to act again if the 2% inflation goal remains elusive, according to Bloomberg.

  • In economic data:

  • Germany's Final September CPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.3%; last +0.3%) and +4.5% yr/yr (expected +4.5%; last +4.5%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: flat at 106.06

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.2292

  • USD/CHF: -0.2% to 0.9025


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