top of page
Search

11/04/23 Briefing

Updated: Apr 13, 2023

The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 12 points and are trading slightly below fair value.

Equity futures have been mixed again this morning. There's not a lot of conviction in the market due to a lack of real impactful corporate news, along with some hesitancy ahead of the March Consumer Price Index tomorrow and earnings from several large banks on Friday. 

China received pleasing inflation data in the form of the March Consumer Price Index, which was cooler than expected, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021.

President Biden signed legislation that terminates the national emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

NY Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) said he expects inflation pressures to gradually cool and for unemployment rate to increase to 4.0-4.5%, according to Reuters.

In corporate news:

  • Coinbase Global (COIN 67.86, +1.73, +2.6%): higher in response to Bitcoin moving above $30,000

  • Newmont Goldcorp (NEM 49.75, -1.34, -2.6%): to enter into confirmatory due diligence on Newcrest (NCMGY)

  • Moderna (MRNA 149.50, -10.65, -6.7%):  first influenza candidate, mRNA-1010, did not accrue sufficient cases at the interim efficacy analysis to declare early success

  • CarMax (KMX 71.00, +5.14, +7.8%): beats by $0.20, misses on revs

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 515.50, +0.32, +0.1%): Morgan Stanley switched top pick to UNH from Cigna; rates UNH Overweight

  • ADTRAN (ADTN 12.70, -2.41, -16.0%): sees Q1 revs well below consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's March CPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.0%). March PPI -2.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.4%). March New Loans CNY3.89 trln (expected CNY3.235 trln; last CNY1.810 trln) and March Total Social Financing CNY5.38 trln (expected CNY4.50 trln; last CNY3.16 trln)

      • Japan's March Machine Tool Orders -15.2% yr/yr (expected -17.0%; last -10.7%)

      • Australia's April Westpac Consumer Sentiment 9.4% (expected 1.5%; last 0.0%). March NAB Business Survey 16, as expected (last 17) and NAB Business Confidence -1 (expected -2; last -4)

    • In news:

      • China's CPI was cooler than expected in March, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021.

      • Japan will chair a meeting of G7 finance leaders in Washington tomorrow.

      • China will conduct a three-month review of duties imposed on barley from Australia.

      • South Korea's exports were down 8.6% yr/yr through the first ten days of April with chip exports falling 39.8%.

      • The Bank of Korea left its base rate at 3.50%, as expected.

  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Spain's IBEX (-0.7%) underperforms due to a weak showing from banks and construction names. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.7%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's April Sentix Investor Confidence -8.7 (expected -9.9; last -11.1). February Retail Sales -0.8% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); -3.0% yr/yr (expected -3.5%; last -1.8%)

    • In news:

      • British Prime Minister Sunak is expected to call a general election for the fall.

      • Italy increased its 2023 domestic growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2024 was reduced to 1.4% from 1.9%.

      • European Central Bank policymaker de Cos repeated that the central bank is not done hiking rates. 

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -1 @ 4,135

  • DJIA Futures: -12 @ 33,739

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -18 @ 13,140

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC+0.9%

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.22 @ 79.52

  • Nat Gas +0.058 @ 2.230

  • Gold +11.50 @ 2015.30

  • Silver +0.183 @ 25.095

  • Copper -0.0345 @ 4.011


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ADTRAN (ADTN) sees Q1 revs well below consensus

  • Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) expects Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be meaningfully above prior guidance

  • CarMax (KMX) beats by $0.20, misses on revs

  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) sees Q1 revs roughly in line with consensus

  • Cognyte Software (CGNT) sees Q4 EPS and revs better than consensus

  • GeoPark (GPRK) reports Q1 operational update; expects to generate 2023 adj EBITDA of $510-580 mln and a free cash flow of $120-140 mln

  • Moderna (MRNA) estimates respiratory product sales in 2027 to be in the range of $8 billion to $15 billion

  • Potbelly (PBPB) raises outlook for Q1 same store sales and adjusted EBITDA

  • PriceSmart (PSMT) beats by $0.36 (single est), beats on revs (single est), comps of +8.5%

  • Tilray (TLRY) reports Q3 (Feb) results, misses on revs; reaffirms positive cash flow from operating segments in FY23; to acquire HEXO Corp (HEXO) for $56 mln

News:

  • The Biden administration is considering rules for artificial intelligence products, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • President Biden signs legislation that terminates the national emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic

  • China's CPI was cooler than expected in March, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021

  • US will propose cut in EV millage rules to meet fuel standards, according to Reuters

  • British Prime Minister Sunak is expected to call a general election for the fall

  • NY Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) expects inflation pressures to gradually cool and for unemployment rate to increase to 4.0-4.5%, according to Reuters

  • The Bank of Korea left its base rate at 3.50%, as expected

  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) adds to stakes of five Japanese trading houses, according to CNBC

  • Bitcoin moved above $30,000 for the first time since June

  • New streaming service is expected to combine content of HBO Max and Discovery, according to New York Times

  • Alibaba (BABA) to introduce generative artificial intelligence among applications, according to Reuters

  • Alphabet (GOOG) fined KRW 42.1 bln in South Korea for market dominance in relation to the app market

  • Boeing (BA) is targeting 2025 for return of normal 737 Max production rates, according to Reuters

  • Cutera (CUTR) regains compliance with Nasdaq for filing of its Form 10-K

  • Getty Images (GETY): Trillium Capital LLC released the following Open Letter to the Board of Directors of Getty Images Holding; Stock should trade over $12 per share

  • Glencore (GLNCY) CEO Gary Nagle will meet with Teck Resources (TECK) shareholders on Thursday, according to Reuters

  • Moderna (MRNA) announced clinical and program updates demonstrating expansion and advancement of its mRNA pipeline; first influenza candidate, mRNA-1010, did not accrue sufficient cases at the interim efficacy analysis to declare early success

  • REGENXBIO (RGNX) receives FDA Fast Track Designation for RGX-202, a novel gene therapy candidate for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

  • Western Copper (WRN): Rio Tinto Canada (RIO) has notified the Company that it will exercise its participation right in full

M&A:

  • Camping World (CWH) announces an agreement to acquire Travel Land RV Center in Houghton Lake, Michigan; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) and Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) agree to merge in all-share transaction

  • Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) to enter into confirmatory due diligence on Newcrest (NCMGY)

  • Tilray (TLRY) to acquire all outstanding shares of HEXO Corp (HEXO) at an implied purchase price of $1.25/share in stock

  • TotalEnergies SE (TTE) has accepted an offer from Pacific Avenue Capital Partners for the acquisition of three product lines

Syndicate:

  • Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Kura Sushi (KRUS) commences public offering of 1,100,000 shares of its common stock

  • Scilex Holding (SCLX) files 3,290,000 common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • Take-Two (TTWO) to sell $1.0 bln of its Senior Notes, consisting of $500 mln of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026 and $500 mln of its 4.950% Senior Notes due 2028

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • ZFOX +13.9%, DHC +12.9%, BKD +8.7%, SCLX +4.5%, RIOT +4.2%, PSMT +3.9%, NGD +3.6%, RKLB +3%, BWXT +1.2%, SBSW +0.8%, PLTR +0.6%

  • Gapping down:

    • ADTN -10.9%, TLRY -6.2%, KRUS -5.3%, PBPB -2.4%, PGY -2%, SGML -1.7%, NEM -1.7%, CHEF -0.5%, TTWO -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Akamai Tech (AKAM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $93

    • Baytex Energy Trust (BTE) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

    • Federated Hermes (FHI) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $47

    • MGIC Investment (MTG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Compass Point; tgt $18

    • Mohawk (MHK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $115

    • Murphy Oil (MUR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $56

    • Radian Group (RDN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Compass Point; tgt $29

    • Range Resources (RRC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $31

    • AstraZeneca (AZN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

    • New York Community (NYCB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt $11

    • Smith & Nephew (SNN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

    • U.S. Xpress (USX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt $6.15

    • Virtu Financial (VIRT) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $21

    • Welltower (WELL) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $81

    • West Pharm (WST) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt raised to $400

    • Whirlpool (WHR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $160

    • WW (WW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $13

    • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $148

  • Downgrades:

    • Antero Resources (AR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $25

    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $34

    • Manhattan Assoc (MANH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Rosenblatt; tgt $150

    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $5

    • EQT Corp. (EQT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $28

    • NASDAQ (NDAQ) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $60

  • Others:

    • Array Tech (ARRY) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $25

    • Chewy (CHWY) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $50

    • Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $18

    • Lending Club (LC) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $11

    • Paragon 28 (FNA) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $23

    • Semtech (SMTC) initiated with an Outperform at Northland Capital; tgt $32

    • Upstart (UPST) initiated with an Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt $11

    • Atlantica Yield (AY) initiated with a Sector Perform at National Bank Financial; tgt $31

    • Bumble Inc. (BMBL) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $23

    • Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) initiated with a Market Perform at SVB Securities; tgt $25

    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) resumed with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $18

    • Eneti (NETI) initiated with a Buy at Pareto; tgt $13

    • GoDaddy (GDDY) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $95

    • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $10

    • Match Group (MTCH) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $50

    • Nextracker (NXT) initiated with a Buy at Johnson Rice; tgt $39

    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) placed on 30-Day Catalyst Watch; tgt lowered to $226

    • R1 RCM (RCM) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $18

    • Roku (ROKU) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $71

    • Shopify (SHOP) initiated with a Hold at Needham

    • Spotify (SPOT) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $160

    • Squarespace (SQSP) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $34

    • Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt $26

Econ Data:

  • 06:00 ET: March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 90.1 (Prior 90.9)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Apr 10)

    • Morning: GBX

    • Afternoon: PSMT, TLRY

  • Tuesday (Apr 11)

    • Morning: ACI, KMX

    • Afternoon: Nothing of note

  • Wednesday (Apr 12)

    • Morning: APOG

    • Afternoon:  SPWH

  • Thursday (Apr 13)

    • Morning: DAL, FAST, PGR

    • Afternoon: WAFD

  • Friday (Apr 14)

    • Morning: BLK, C, JPM, PNC, UNH, WFC

    • Afternoon: Nothing of note

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. China's CPI was cooler than expected in March, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021. Japan will chair a meeting of G7 finance leaders in Washington tomorrow. China will conduct a three-month review of duties imposed on barley from Australia. South Korea's exports were down 8.6% yr/yr through the first ten days of April with chip exports falling 39.8%. The Bank of Korea left its base rate at 3.50%, as expected.

  • In economic data:

    • China's March CPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.0%). March PPI -2.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -1.4%). March New Loans CNY3.89 trln (expected CNY3.235 trln; last CNY1.810 trln) and March Total Social Financing CNY5.38 trln (expected CNY4.50 trln; last CNY3.16 trln)

    • Japan's March Machine Tool Orders -15.2% yr/yr (expected -17.0%; last -10.7%)

    • Australia's April Westpac Consumer Sentiment 9.4% (expected 1.5%; last 0.0%). March NAB Business Survey 16, as expected (last 17) and NAB Business Confidence -1 (expected -2; last -4)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.1%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.8%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.5%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.4% to 133.04

  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.8890

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 82.05

 

Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC+0.9%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Spain's IBEX (-0.7%) underperforms due to a weak showing from banks and construction names. British Prime Minister Sunak is expected to call a general election for the fall. Italy increased its 2023 domestic growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2024 was reduced to 1.4% from 1.9%. European Central Bank policymaker de Cos repeated that the central bank is not done hiking rates.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's April Sentix Investor Confidence -8.7 (expected -9.9; last -11.1). February Retail Sales -0.8% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); -3.0% yr/yr (expected -3.5%; last -1.8%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.4%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.9%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.7%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.5% to 1.0913

  • GBP/USD: +0.4% to 1.2429

  • USD/CHF: -0.5% to 0.9045


3 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page