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10/08/22 Briefing



Germany (8:00 CET) CPI MOM for July is expected to have the same level of Jun at 0.9%

US (14:30 CET) CPI MOM for July is expected to decrease by 1.1%

Market News

Asian stocks dropped following a retreat on Wall Street, with regional chip shares tumbling after Micron warned about slowing demand. US and European futures were mostly lower. Benchmark Treasuries fell along with oil, while the dollar was steady. Bitcoin dropped below $23,000.

The proportion of buy ratings for Stoxx 600 members is hovering near the highest since 2001 at about 56%. That's a level that in the past has sometimes preceded periods of downgrades, such as in 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. "The lagged relationship between recommendations and profit forecasts suggests a state of denial at the beginning of a bear market," said Citi strategists led by Robert Buckland.

Evercore's in-house pundits disagree on whether stocks have bottomed. Rich Ross, head of technical analysis, just declared the bear market over. Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist, isn't so sure. Unless the benchmark index breaks above 4,340 - a level near its 200-day moving average - the market is vulnerable to fresh lows. "The overriding emotion is, in fact, one of confusion," he said.

The two-year Treasury yield exceeded the 10-year by nearly 50 bps yesterday, a milestone last seen in August 2000, as traders priced in a peak of the Fed's policy rate at around 3.5%. If inflation picks up, and the expected peak rises to 4%, the curve inversion has scope to expand to 85 bps, according to BofA's Meghan Swiber. "The extent of inversion will depend on the terminal rate, which will likely be a function of inflation."

Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion of shares in Tesla, saying he needed cash in case he's forced to go ahead with his deal to buy Twitter and if some equity partners don't come through. He's sold about $32 billion worth of Tesla stock in the past 10 months. Musk also said he'll start buying Tesla shares again if the Twitter deal dies. Twitter is suing to force the billionaire to consummate the deal, with a trial set for October.

Merck & Co.'s diabetes drug Januvia was found to be contaminated with a potential carcinogen, but the FDA will allow sales to continue to avoid shortages. The DOJ may sue Google as soon as next month, capping years of work to build a case that it illegally dominates the digital ads market. A ecoblank-check firm backed by Sam Zell's Equity Group Investments will return the cash it raised and close shop after failing to reach a merger deal. Carlyle's former CEO Kewsong Lee asked for a $300 million package over five years but was rejected, the FT reported. The firm's global head of IR Nathan Urquhart is leaving to become president at Coatue Management, people familiar said. Taiwan wants to force Foxconn to drop an $800 million investment in China's chip company Tsinghua Unigroup, the FT reported.

Economic Outlook

The UK's finance industry had more than five vacancies unfilled for every 100 jobs between April and June. That's the highest since records began in 2001, and puts the sector behind only hospitality and tech firms. To counter the talent shortfall, some firms have started training their staff in new areas such as machine learning and automation.

Chinese consumer inflation in July was the fastest in two years, but it fell short of consensus and reflected a big jump in pork prices rather than strong demand, according to Bloomberg Economics. The CPI rose by 2.7%, short of the 2.9% estimate, and factory-gate inflation slowed more than expected. Core CPI gains slowed to 0.8%. Later, US CPI data may show a slowdown in July to 8.7% - still too fast for the Fed. Core CPI may rise 0.5% month on month.

Overview

FTSE 100 - 7,488.15 (0.0772%) DJ - 32,774.41 (-0.1771%) S&P500 - 4,122.47 (-0.4249%) Nasdaq - 12,493.93 (-1.1905%) EStoxx50 - 3,715.37 (-1.1139%) HSI - 19,484.51 (-2.5876%) Nikkei - 27,819.33 (-0.6451%)

Currencies

GBPUSD - 1.2077 (-0.0331%) GBPEUR - 1.1828 (0.00%) EURUSD - 1.0211 (-0.0294%) EURCHF - .9727 (0.1285%) USDCAD - 1.2888 (0.0078%) EURAUD - 1.4670 (-0.0648%) EURSEK - 10.3913 (-0.0346%) EURNOK - 9.9287 (0.0614%)

Commodities

GOLD - 1,788.98 (-0.3076%) SILVER - 20.429 (-0.4541%) COPPER - 357.20 (-0.3905%) PALLADIUM - 2,200.56 (-0.7858%) CRUDE - 89.57 (-1.0387%) BRENT - 95.43 (-0.9656%)

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