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10/07/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 8 points and are trading fractionally below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

The stock futures market has been mixed, yet little changed. Following Friday's softer finish that featured a late afternoon slide in the mega cap stocks, market participants are waiting to see if there will be any follow through selling or if there will be an inclination to buy into weakness.

The wait-and-see mentality also comes ahead of the start of earnings reporting season at the end of the week. Before that, market participants will receive the June Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.

On a related note, China's CPI was unchanged yr/yr in the June reading while PPI (-5.4% yr/yr) contracted for the ninth consecutive month, falling at its fastest pace in seven years. These reports have fueled speculation about additional policy stimulus in China.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down four basis points to 4.90% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.04%.

In corporate news:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 427.76, +2.73, +0.6%): Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy rating and raised price target to $495 from $440

  • Netflix (NFLX 438.90, +0.80, +0.2%): Morgan Stanley raised price target to $450 from $350; reiterates Equal Weight rating

  • Tesla (TSLA 276.25, +1.82, +0.7%): Jefferies raised price target to $265 from $185; maintains Hold rating

  • Fisker (FSR 5.96, -0.04, -0.7%): announces $340 mln convertible notes offering with potential to increase to $680 mln; rolls out first models to US buyers, according to WSJ

  • Helen of Troy (HELE 124.83, +11.96, +10.6%): beats by $0.26, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 100.45, +0.22, +0.2%): reports June 2023 revs -11.1% yr/yr to NT 156.4 bln

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%, India's Sensex: +0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June CPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.2%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%). June PPI -5.4% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -4.6%)

  • Japan's May Current Account surplus JPY1.70 trln (expected surplus of JPY1.20 trln; last surplus of JPY1.90 trln). June Economy Watchers Current Index 53.6 (expected 55.0; last 55.0)

  • Australia's May Building Approvals 20.6% m/m, as expected (last -6.8%) and Private House Approvals 0.9% m/m, as expected (last -3.0%)


  • In news:

  • Treasury Secretary Yellen concluded her visit to China, saying that the U.S. and China have significant disagreements and they must be communicated clearly and directly.

  • China's CPI was unchanged yr/yr in the June reading while PPI contracted for the ninth consecutive month.

  • The People's Bank of China should shift its stimulus focus to consumption, according to a PBoC advisor.



  • Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence -22.5 (expected -17.9; last -17.0)


  • In news:

  • Dutch Prime Minister Rutte's coalition government collapsed due to a disagreement over immigration policy. A general election will be held later this year.

  • European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the ECB's peak rate will be reached soon and that the inflationary peak has been passed in France.

  • British Chancellor Hunt has reportedly ruled out a tax cut ahead of this fall's election.

  • The NATO summit will begin in Lithuania tomorrow.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +1 @ 4,435

  • DJIA Futures: +33 @ 33,970

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -8 @ 15,174

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.6%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.52 @ 73.34

  • Nat Gas +0.077 @ 2.647

  • Gold -3.00 @ 1929.50

  • Silver +0.001 @ 23.290

  • Copper -0.0345 @ 3.7475


Earnings/Guidance:

  • ASE Technology ( ASX 0.53% ) reports Jun revs declined 19.4% yr/yr to NT$46.72 bln

  • AZZ ( AZZ 2.08% ) misses by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS and revenue guidance

  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES IMOS 0.00% reports June revs declined 15% yr/yr; sees Q2 revs above consensus

  • FMC Corp ( FMC 8.33% ) sees Q2 and FY23 revs well below consensus

  • Helen of Troy ( HELE 16.15% ) beats by $0.26, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • NanoString Technologies ( NSTG 25.95% ) sees Q2 revs above consensus; reaffirms FY23 revs

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM 0.41% ) reports June 2023 revs -11.1% yr/yr to NT 156.4 bln

News:

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in interview says recession risk is "not completely off the table." She said her trip to China was successful because it created the opportunity for a deeper set of more frequent contacts between the two nations, according to CBS News

  • President Biden in interview says Russian war on Ukraine must end before Ukrainian NATO membership can be considered, according to CNN

  • The NATO summit will begin Tuesday in Lithuania

  • Chinese inflation data adds to speculation about stimulus, according to Bloomberg

  • Dutch Prime Minister Rutte's coalition government collapsed due to a disagreement over immigration policy

  • European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the ECB's peak rate will be reached soon and that the inflationary peak has been passed in France

  • More countries are repatriating gold reserves, according to Reuters

  • Alibaba ( BABA 1.55% ): Ant Group proposes share repurchase

  • Apple ( AAPL 1.13% ) Vision Pro is expected to take longer than other products to generate large revenue, according to Bloomberg

  • ArcBest ( ARCB 1.02% ): Teamsters contract fully ratified

  • Ashford Hospitality Trust ( AHT 4.19% ) makes strategic decision to reduce leverage and conserve cash

  • Carl Icahn ( IEP 17.15% ) finalized amended loan agreements with banks, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Nanobiotix ( NBTX 45.75% ) announces license agreement for worldwide co-development and commercialization of potential first-in-class Radioenhancer NBTXR3

  • Novavax ( NVAX 21.30% ) amends deal with Canada; customer agreed to pay $349.6 mln

  • Novo Nordisk A/S ( NVO 0.01% ) weight loss drug under investigation in EU over reported suicides, according to Bloomberg

  • Robert Half Intl ( RHI 1.78% ) announces it is changing its name to Robert Half Inc. effective July 17

  • Union Pacific Railroad ( UNP 1.05% ) and the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers reached a tentative agreement to provide up to eight paid sick leave days to around 5,900 railroad employees

  • Steel Dynamics ( STLD 0.96% ) announces unplanned outage of the hot mill at its Sinton Mill

M&A:

  • Bio-Techne ( TECH 2.15% ) completes Lunaphore acquisition

  • GasLog Partners ( GLOP 0.00% ): Unitholders approve previously announced merger whereby GasLog Ltd. (Parent) will acquire all outstanding common units of the Partnership not beneficially owned by Parent

  • Hecla Mining HL 1.96% completes acquisition of ATAC Resources and restarts Casa Berardi

  • Honeywell ( HON 1.74% ) has agreed to acquire SCADAfence

  • Kering ( PPRUF ) paid EUR 3.5 bln to acquire fragrance brand Creed, according to FT

  • TPG Inc. ( TPG 0.14% ) to acquire Forcepoint Global Governments and Critical Infrastructure Business from Francisco Partners; financial terms were not disclosed

Syndicate:

  • 3D Systems ( DDD 4.29% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Brookfield Business Corporation ( BBUC 0.31% ) may from time to time issue up to $1.5 bln of its class A exchangeable subordinate voting shares

  • Brookfield Business Partners ( BBU 0.22% ) files for limited partnership unit offering

  • Callon Petroleum ( CPE 1.04% ) files for 6,267,385 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • Equitrans Midstream ( ETRN 0.11% ) files for 30,018,446 Series A perpetual convertible preferred shares offering by selling shareholders; 30,018,446 shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of the Series a perpetual

  • Fisker ( FSR 1.00% ) announces $340 mln convertible notes offering with potential to increase to $680 mln

  • NET Power ( NPWR 4.53% ) files for 201,480,913 share common stock offering by selling shareholders; relates to warrants

  • TROOPS ( TROO 0.00% ) files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering

IPOs:

  • There are no IPOs scheduled at this time

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • NBTX +42.1%, HELE +10.6%, NSTG +8.4%, BDTX +5.2%, HCM +2.7%, VLRS +2.4%, SCLX +1.9%, NVAX +1.8%, VERI +1.3%, STLD +0.9%, NPWR +0.7%, JFIN +0.6%


  • Gapping down:

  • TROO -6%, FMC -4.9%, ARCB -1.6%, AZZ -1.4%, AAPL -0.9%, TSM -0.7%, IMOS -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AmBev (ABEV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • BlackRock (BLK) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $835

  • Patterson-UTI (PTEN) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $19

  • Sealed Air (SEE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $52

  • Weyerhaeuser (WY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $38


  • Downgrades:

  • Amcor (AMCR) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $9

  • Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $4

  • Ares Management (ARES) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $98

  • Bill.com (BILL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $120

  • Cardinal Health (CAH) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $100

  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $29

  • Graphic Packaging (GPK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $29

  • Helmerich & Payne (HP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $45

  • Int'l Paper (IP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $33

  • MercadoLibre (MELI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $1350

  • The Aaron's Company (AAN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt lowered to $14


  • Others:

  • Amazon (AMZN) initiated with an Outperform at CICC; tgt $140

  • Protara Therapeutics (TARA) assumed with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $22

  • The Metals Company (TMC) initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity; tgt $6


Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: May Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; Prior -0.1%)

  • 15:00 ET: May Consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $21.0B; Prior $23.0B)

Earnings:

  • Monday (July 10)

  • Morning: HELE

  • Afternoon: PSMT WDFC


  • Tuesday (July 11)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Wednesday (July 12)

  • Morning: ANGO

  • Afternoon: MLKN


  • Thursday (July 13)

  • Morning: CTAS CAG DAL FAST PEP PGR

  • Afternoon: WAFD


  • Friday (Jul 14)

  • Morning: BLK C ERIC JPM STT UNH WFC

  • Afternoon: None


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Treasury Secretary Yellen concluded her visit to China, saying that the U.S. and China have significant disagreements and they must be communicated clearly and directly. China's CPI was unchanged yr/yr in the June reading while PPI contracted for the ninth consecutive month. The People's Bank of China should shift its stimulus focus to consumption, according to a PBoC advisor.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June CPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.2%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%). June PPI -5.4% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -4.6%)

  • Japan's May Current Account surplus JPY1.70 trln (expected surplus of JPY1.20 trln; last surplus of JPY1.90 trln). June Economy Watchers Current Index 53.6 (expected 55.0; last 55.0)

  • Australia's May Building Approvals 20.6% m/m, as expected (last -6.8%) and Private House Approvals 0.9% m/m, as expected (last -3.0%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.6%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%

  • India's Sensex: +0.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.2%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 142.44

  • USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.2450

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 82.57

Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.6%

Major European indices trade in the green. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte's coalition government collapsed due to a disagreement over immigration policy. A general election will be held later this year. European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the ECB's peak rate will be reached soon and that the inflationary peak has been passed in France. British Chancellor Hunt has reportedly ruled out a tax cut ahead of this fall's election. The NATO summit will begin in Lithuania tomorrow.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence -22.5 (expected -17.9; last -17.0)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.5%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.6%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0954

  • GBP/USD: -0.5% to 1.2776

  • USD/CHF: +0.3% to 0.8900


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