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10/04/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 12 points and are trading slightly below fair value.

Equity futures have been mixed and little changed this morning as investors digest Friday's March Employment Report, which reflected continued strength in the labor market and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Some trepidation ahead of the Q1 earnings reporting season, starting with some of the larger banks reporting their results on Friday, is also driving the price action. 

In addition, there may be an element of geopolitical angst limiting big moves in the equity futures market after China held two days of military drills around Taiwan this weekend. 

Treasury yields are pulling back. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.93% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.36%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 102.20.

WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $80.87/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.7% to $2.05/mmbtu. 

In corporate news:

  • Exxon (XOM 114.26, -0.79, -0.7%): in discussions to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), according to WSJ

  • Tesla (TSLA 181.50, -3.56, -1.9%): lowers US prices again, according to Reuters

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 13.53, -0.50, -3.6%): discloses that it suspended payment of the quarterly cash dividend on each series of the bank's outstanding noncumulative perpetual preferred stock

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 89.21, -1.03, -1.1%): reports March revs declined 15.4% yr/yr to NT$145.4 bln; Q1 revs below consensus

  • Block (SQ 67.11, -0.99, -1.5%): downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at KBW

  • NetApp (NTAP 63.85, +0.85, +1.4%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in Australia, Hong Kong, and New Zealand remained closed for Easter. Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%, India's Sensex: UNCH, South Korea's Kospi: +0.9%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%.

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's February Current Account JPY1.09 trln (expected JPY1.43 trln; last JPY200 bln). March Household Confidence 33.9 (expected 31.9; last 31.3) and March Economy Watchers Current Index 53.3 (expected 52.9; last 52.0)

    • In news:

      • New Bank of Japan Governor Ueda held his inaugural news conference today, pledging to maintain the current policy stance. Meanwhile, former Bank of Japan official Nakaso said that the central bank will modify or abolish yield curve control when the right time comes.

      • China conducted a three-day live-fire military exercise in the Taiwan Strait over the weekend.

  • Major European indices remain closed for Easter, but they will resume trading tomorrow. STOXX Europe 600: CLOSED, Germany's DAX: CLOSED, U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED, France's CAC 40: CLOSED, Italy's FTSE MIB: CLOSED, Spain's IBEX 35: CLOSED.

    • There was no noteworthy data

    • In news:

      • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said it is unclear whether the ECB should raise rates by 25 or 50 bps at the May meeting.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -8 @ 4,123

  • DJIA Futures: -12 @ 33,647

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -64 @ 13,090

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX closed for holiday, FTSE closed for holiday, CAC closed for holiday

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai Composite -0.4%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.05 @ 80.65

  • Nat Gas +0.033 @ 2.044

  • Gold -9.70 @ 2016.70

  • Silver +0.092 @ 25.18

  • Copper -0.0100 @ 4.006


 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Audiocodes (AUDC) sees Q1 EPS and revs below consensus

  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (IMOS) reports Q1 revs above consensus

  • Greenbrier (GBX) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; raises FY23 revs in-line

  • Regeneron Pharma (REGN) discloses that it expects acquired in-process research and development charge of approximately $56 mln in Q1 results

  • Samsung (SSNLF) announces earnings guidance for Q1 of 2023; Sales: 62 ~ 64 trillion Korean won; Operating Profit: 0.5 ~ 0.7 trillion Korean won

  • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) announced that it anticipates achieving a net leverage ratio comfortably below the credit facility covenant of 6.5 times for its fiscal 2023 second quarter

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reports March revs declined 15.4% yr/yr to NT$145.4 bln; Q1 revs below consensus

  • Teck Resources (TECK) says Q1 steelmaking coal sales were 6.2 million tonnes, within its previously disclosed guidance range of 6.0 - 6.4 million tonnes

  • Vital Energy (VTLE) sees Q1 production above guidance

  • WD-40 beats (WDFC) by $0.06 (two ests), beats on revs (single est); guides FY23 EPS below two analyst estimate, revs in-line

News:

  • China held two days of military drills around Taiwan, according to FT

  • Israeli fighter jets attacked south Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, according to New York Times

  • IDC says "PC pain persists in Q1 2023 due to excess inventory and poor demand"

  • Capital One (COF) received from Walmart (WMT) a notice of termination of the credit card partnership agreement

  • Cerence (CRNC) Chief Technology Officer Prateek Kathpal has notified Cerence of his decision to resign effective as of May 8, 2023, in order to pursue another opportunity

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) Founder and CEO provide commentary on the industry; notes business is extremely robust; deposit flows at Schwab bank fairly consistent

  • Eli Lilly (LLY) warned EU that it could miss key drugs under new patent rules, according to FT

  • First Republic Bank (FRC) discloses that it suspended payment of the quarterly cash dividend on each series of the bank's outstanding noncumulative perpetual preferred stock

  • KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP) announces CEO/CFO stepping down

  • McDonald's (MCD) to eliminate hundreds of jobs and lower compensation for some other employees, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Moderna (MRNA): MRNA-4157/V940 in combination with KEYTRUDA (MRK), receives prime scheme designation from the European Medicines Agency

  • Paramount (PARA) mulling selling majority stake in Noggin, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Teck Resources (TECK) reaffirms benefits of pending separation

  • Tesla (TSLA) lowers US prices again, according to Reuters

  • Tesla (TSLA) announces that its next Megafactory will be in Shanghai -- capable of producing 10k Megapacks per year

  • Tesla (TSLA) in proxy filing on Thursday nightamended the investment collateralization cap for CEO Elon Musk to $3.5 bln or 25% of total value of pledged stock

  • Toyota (TM) will introduce 10 new EV models by 2026, according to Reuters

  • Tupperware (TUP) takes action to improve capital structure and liquidity position

  • Walt Disney (DIS): Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is threatening new taxes and tolls against Disney, according to Tampa Bay Times

M&A:

  • Canopy Growth (CGC) entered into an agreement to purchase 45% of the common shares of Les Serres Vert Cannabis increasing its existing 55% common share holding of Les Serres Vert Cannabis Inc. to 100%

  • DUET Acquisition Corp. (DUET) terminates merger agreement with AnyTech365

  • Exxon (XOM) in discussions to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), according to The Wall Street Journal

  • GasLog Partners & Gaslog (GLOG) announced Thursday agreement for the acquisition by GasLog Ltd. of GasLog Partners LP's publicly held common units

  • MSG Sports (MSGS) announces the combination of Counter Logic Gaming, or CLG, with NRG; MSG Sports, which owned a controlling interest in CLG, now owns noncontrolling equity in the combined NRG/CLG company

Syndicate:

  • Enterprises Finl (EFSC) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) files mixed shelf securities offering

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • GLOP +4.2%, GBX +2.6%, MRNA +2.2%, MSGS +2%, SCHW +1.7%, AUR +1.6%, MPW +0.9%

  • Gapping down:

    • AUDC -13.3%, TUP -10.7%, WDFC -3.7%, COF -2.9%, LFCR -2.1%, FRC -1.9%, TSLA -1.2%, AZUL -1.2%, TSM -1.1%, KRYS -0.5%, UMC -0.5%

 

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $36

    • AvalonBay (AVB) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $194

    • Catalent (CTLT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $88

    • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company; tgt $22

    • Kemper (KMPR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $78

    • McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast; tgt $321

    • NetApp (NTAP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt $75

    • Northern Trust (NTRS) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $96.50

    • SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $155

    • Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $85

    • TFI International (TFII) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt lowered to $135

    • Weyerhaeuser (WY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt raised to $35

  • Downgrades:

    • Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $11

    • Essex Property (ESS) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $236

    • ICICI Bank (IBN) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

    • Block (SQ) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $75

    • Incyte (INCY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $79

    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $257

  • Others:

    • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) initiated with an Outperform at MoffettNathanson; tgt $19.50

    • Excelerate Energy (EE) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $31

    • Fiverr (FVRR) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $50

    • GE HealthCare (GEHC) initiated with a Neutral at BTIG Research

    • Ingersoll-Rand (IR) placed on 90-Day Upside Catalyst Watch

    • New Fortress Energy (NFE) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $60

    • Rallybio (RLYB) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $17

    • Ribbon Communications (RBBN) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $6

    • Southwestern Energy (SWN) initiated with a Hold at Siebert Williams Shank; tgt $6

    • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) initiated with a Buy at Truist; tgt $19

    • Xometry (XMTR) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $20

Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: February Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.comconsensus 0.2%; prior -0.4%)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Apr 10)

    • Morning: GBX

    • Afternoon: PSMT, TLRY

  • Tuesday (Apr 11)

    • Morning: ACI, KMX

    • Afternoon: Nothing of note

  • Wednesday (Apr 12)

    • Morning: APOG

    • Afternoon:  SPWH

  • Thursday (Apr 13)

    • Morning: DAL, FAST, PGR

    • Afternoon: WAFD

  • Friday (Apr 14)

    • Morning: BLK, C, JPM, PNC, UNH, WFC

    • Afternoon: Nothing of note

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai Composite -0.4%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in Australia, Hong Kong, and New Zealand remained closed for Easter. New Bank of Japan Governor Ueda held his inaugural news conference today, pledging to maintain the current policy stance. Meanwhile, former Bank of Japan official Nakaso said that the central bank will modify or abolish yield curve control when the right time comes. China conducted a three-day live-fire military exercise in the Taiwan Strait over the weekend.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's February Current Account JPY1.09 trln (expected JPY1.43 trln; last JPY200 bln). March Household Confidence 33.9 (expected 31.9; last 31.3) and March Economy Watchers Current Index 53.3 (expected 52.9; last 52.0)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.4%

  • India's Sensex: UNCH

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.9%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 132.24

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.8786

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 81.96

 

Europe: DAX closed for holiday, FTSE closed for holiday, CAC closed for holiday

Major European indices remain closed for Easter, but they will resume trading tomorrow. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said it is unclear whether the ECB should raise rates by 25 or 50 bps at the May meeting.

  • There was no noteworthy data

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: CLOSED

  • Germany's DAX: CLOSED

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED

  • France's CAC 40: CLOSED

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: CLOSED

  • Spain's IBEX 35: CLOSED

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0896

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2418

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9061

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