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09/01/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 115 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

The stock market is poised for a higher open driven by optimism that Friday's rally will continue as market participants take account of lower interest rates and the possibility of a soft landing.

China removed all border restrictions, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Representative Kevin McCarthy won the election for Speaker of the House after 15 ballots.

Jair Bolsonaro supporters stormed Brazil's Congress and presidential offices, according to the NY Times.

Economic data today is limited to the November Consumer Credit report (prior $27.0 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is flat at 4.27% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.60%.

In corporate news:

  • CureVac (CVAC 10.46, +2.20, +26.6%): announces positive data on joint COVID-19 and Flu mRNA vaccine development programs

  • lululemon athletica (LULU 288.59, -40.67, -12.4%): provides mixed guidance ahead of ICR Conference

  • Visa (V 220.30, +2.55, +1.2%) and Mastercard (MA 373.50, +5.83, +1.6%): upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc

  • Uber (UBER 27.13, +0.73, +2.8%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler 

  • Macy's (M 21.00, -1.13, -5.1%): provides Q4 guidance ahead of its ICR Conference; reiterates EPS outlook, expects to reach low-end to mid-point of revenue guidance; says it believes the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023

  • CinCor Pharma (CINC 27.31, +15.53, +131.8%): to be acquired by AstraZeneca (AZN) for $26.00 per share in cash plus a non-tradable CVR of $10.00 per share in cash payable upon a specified regulatory submission of a baxdrostat product.

  • Albireo Pharma plc (ALBO 42.80, +19.98, +87.6%): to be acquired by Ipsen (IPSEY) for $42.00 per share plus CVR of $10.00 per share related to the U.S. FDA approval of Bylvay in biliary atresia

  • Amryt Pharma (AMYT 14.51, +7.50, +107.0%): plc to be acquired by Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. for $14.50 per ADS

  • Life Time (LTH 12.34, -0.47, -3.7%): sees Q4 revs below consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: CLOSED, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.6%, India's Sensex: +1.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's December FX Reserves $3.128 trln (expected $3.154 trln; last $3.117 trln)

  • Australia's November Building Approvals -9.0% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -5.6%) and Private House Approvals -2.5% m/m (last -2.2%)

  • In news:

  • Japan will conduct coronavirus tests on visitors arriving from Macau while Thailand reversed its plan to test visitors.

  • Hong Kong's financial regulators indicated that tech start up listings will resume this year.

  • Ant Group announced that Jack Ma does not hold a controlling interest in the company any longer.

  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%, Germany's DAX: +0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November Unemployment Rate 6.5%, as expected (last 6.5%) and January Sentix Investor Confidence -17.5 (expected -18.0; last -21.0)

  • Germany's November Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%)

  • France's November trade deficit EUR13.80 bln (expected deficit of EUR11.30 bln; last deficit of EUR11.60 bln)

  • Italy's November Unemployment Rate 7.8%, as expected (last 7.9%)

  • Swiss December Unemployment Rate 1.9% (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%)

  • In news:

  • The British government is working on legislation to restrict strike action among workers in the public sector.

  • Bank of England policymaker Mann said that caps on the price of energy could be fueling inflation in other sectors due to higher consumer spending.

  • The French government is expected to announce an overhaul of its pension system in the coming days.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +16 @ 3,911

  • DJIA Futures: +97 @ 33,728

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +54 @ 11,095

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei CLOSED, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +2.51 @ 76.28

  • Nat Gas +0.101 @ 3.811

  • Gold +9.70 @ 1879.40

  • Silver +0.091 @ 24.073

  • Copper +0.0703 @ 3.9813

 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (

  • Acuity Brands (

  • Akoya Biosciences (

  • Alnylam Pharma (

  • BioMarin (

  • Caleres (

  • CareDx (

  • Castle Biosciences (

  • Commercial Metals (

  • CVS Health (

  • CymaBay Therapeutics (

  • Dutch Bros (

  • Esperion Therapeutics (

  • European Wax Center (

  • Exelixis (

  • First Watch Restaurant Group (

  • Genesco (

  • Hologic (

  • Humana (

  • Invitae (

  • Ironwood Pharma (

  • Life Time (

  • lululemon athletica (

  • NanoString Technologies (

  • Nevro (

  • NovoCure (

  • Pacific Biosciences (

  • Primo Water (

  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (

  • Rite Aid (

  • RxSight (

  • STAAR Surgical (

  • Surgery Partners (

  • Tilray (

  • ViewRay (

  • Xponential Fitness (

News:

  • China removes all border restrictions, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Jair Bolsonaro supporters stormed Brazil's Congress and presidential offices, according to the New York Times

  • Rep. Kevin McCarthy wins election for Speaker of the House after 15 ballots. Vote was 216-222 with 6 Republicans voting present, according to the New York Times

  • House rule changes, committee assignments, and commitments that spending cuts are connected to debt ceiling legislation increase the risk of a standoff over the debt ceiling this summer, according to Bloomberg

  • Conservatives on the House Rules Committee will have enough votes to stop legislation they oppose from coming to a full House vote, according to Politico

  • Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) says conservatives will use tools to enforce deal made with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, according to CNN

  • Nearly 500K people in UK take out private health insurance amid crisis in national health system, according to Telegraph

  • Alibaba (

  • Alibaba (

  • Ascendis Pharma (

  • AstraZeneca (

  • atai Life Sciences N.V. (

  • Avantor (

  • Axsome Therapeutics (

  • Azul S.A. (

  • Beam Therapeutics (

  • Biogen (

  • Blackstone (

  • bluebird bio (

  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt (

  • Cenovus Energy (

  • Day One (

  • Deere (

  • Emergent BioSolutions (

  • G1 Therapeutics (

  • Goldman (

  • GreenLight Biosciences (

  • IDEAYA Biosciences' (

  • IGM Biosciences (

  • Immunocore (

  • KemPharm (

  • Macerich (

  • MarketAxess (

  • Merus (

  • Metropolitan Bank (

  • Mitek Systems (

  • Moderna (

  • New Found Gold Corp. (

  • New Pacific Metals (

  • NuScale Power (

  • Ocugen (

  • Phathom Pharmaceuticals (

  • Pharvaris N.V. (

  • Reunion Neuroscience (

  • Revance Therapeutics (

  • Rite Aid (

  • Roche Hldg (

  • Salesforce (

  • Schrodinger (

  • Selecta Biosciences (

  • Stellantis (

  • Takeda Pharma (

  • Tenaya Therapeutics (

  • Tesla (

  • Twist Bioscience (

  • Viridian (

  • Vital Energy (

M&A:

  • Albireo Pharma (

  • Amryt Pharma plc (

  • CinCor Pharma (

  • Duck Creek Technologies (

  • Paya Holdings (

  • Vodafone PLC (

Syndicate:

  • Bilibili (

  • DHT (

  • Liquidia Technologies (

  • Live Nation (

IPOs:

  • Expect to Price:

  • Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (Nasdaq: SKWD): The specialty insurance company delivering commercial property and casualty products and solutions is expected to price its 8.5 M share IPO between $14-$16.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • CINC +140.1%, AMYT +109.3%, ALBO +91.8%, DAWN +26.8%, CVAC +24.7%, PHAT +21.8%, OCGN +20%, VRDN +8.4%, CBAY +8.3%, RVNC +5.5%, HOLX +5.4%, MRUS +5%, ANNX +4.6%, LQDA +4.2%, SWTX +3.4%, BMRN +2.4%, EXEL +2.4%, EXAS +2.4%, PRMW +1.8%, BEAM +1.5%, RARE +1.5%, BIIB +1%, FWRG +1%, CVE +0.8%, QDEL +0.7%

  • Gapping down:

  • LULU -11.5%, ESPR -6.3%, M -6.1%, KSS -5.5%, IDYA -5%, MOLN -4.9%, HRMY -4.8%, BILI -3.9%, AFMD -3.3%, BCAB -2.9%, JWN -2.3%, AYI -1.6%, XPOF -1.5%, AGIO -1.3%, SAGE -1.3%, GTHX -1.3%, ALNY -1.2%, DDS -0.7%, IRWD -0.6%

 


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Alibaba (BABA) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman; tgt raised to $138

  • Ally Financial (ALLY) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $28

  • Helmerich & Payne (HP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $104

  • Uber (UBER) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $33

  • Weibo (WB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt $25

  • Zillow (ZG) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $42

  • Downgrades:

  • BlackLine (BL) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $66

  • Cognizant Tech (CTSH) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $57

  • DoorDash (DASH) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $40

  • Omega Health (OHI) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $25

  • Sea Limited (SE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $60

  • TotalEnergies SE (TTE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

  • Others:

  • CF Industries (CF) assumed with an Underperform at Credit Suisse

  • Nutrien (NTR) assumed with an Underperform at Credit Suisse

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 15:00 ET: Consumer Credit for Nov (Briefing.com Consensus $23.5 B; Prior $27.0B)

  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Jan 9)

  • Morning:  AYI CMC TLRY

  • Afternoon: ACCD AZZ JEF PSMT WDFC

  • Tuesday (Jan 10)

  • Morning: ACI BBBY SNX

  • Wednesday (Jan 11)

  • Afternoon:  KBH

  • Friday (Jan 13)  

  • Morning:  BAC BLK BK C DAL FRC JPM UNH WFC

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei CLOSED, Hang Seng +1.9%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan will conduct coronavirus tests on visitors arriving from Macau while Thailand reversed its plan to test visitors. Hong Kong's financial regulators indicated that tech start up listings will resume this year. Ant Group announced that Jack Ma does not hold a controlling interest in the company any longer.

  • In economic data:

  • China's December FX Reserves $3.128 trln (expected $3.154 trln; last $3.117 trln)

  • Australia's November Building Approvals -9.0% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -5.6%) and Private House Approvals -2.5% m/m (last -2.2%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: CLOSED

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.9%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.6%

  • India's Sensex: +1.4%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +2.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 132.48

  • USD/CNH: -0.5% to 6.7933

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 82.31

 

Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.3%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. The British government is working on legislation to restrict strike action among workers in the public sector. Bank of England policymaker Mann said that caps on the price of energy could be fueling inflation in other sectors due to higher consumer spending. The French government is expected to announce an overhaul of its pension system in the coming days.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's November Unemployment Rate 6.5%, as expected (last 6.5%) and January Sentix Investor Confidence -17.5 (expected -18.0; last -21.0)

  • Germany's November Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%)

  • France's November trade deficit EUR13.80 bln (expected deficit of EUR11.30 bln; last deficit of EUR11.60 bln)

  • Italy's November Unemployment Rate 7.8%, as expected (last 7.9%)

  • Swiss December Unemployment Rate 1.9% (expected 2.1%; last 2.0%)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.7%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: +0.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: +0.4% to 1.0687

  • GBP/USD: +0.4% to 1.2141

  • USD/CHF: -0.5% to 0.9234

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