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08/12/23 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 54 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Equity futures point to a lower open after yesterday's rebound. The downside bias is likely driven by consolidation efforts, but the bias could change following the release of the November Employment Situation Report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants are waiting to see if the jobs report fits with the thinking that the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, which recent stock market gains have been partially predicated on.

In addition to the jobs report, participants will receive the preliminary December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.63% and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.18%.

WTI crude oil futures are up 2.0% to $70.73/bbl.

In corporate news:

  • Broadcom (AVGO 921.79, -0.47, -0.1%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; projects revs of approx. $50 bln in FY24 (Oct), including VMware contributions; increases dividend

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 46.50, +1.61, +3.6%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • lululemon athletica (LULU 453.81, -10.86, -2.3%): beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; approved an additional stock repurchase program up to $1.0 bln on November 29

  • Honeywell (HON 193.81, -3.98, -2.0%): acquires Carrier's (CARR) Global Access Solutions for $4.95 bln

  • RH 0.54% (RH 258.00, -23.40, -8.3%): misses by $1.36, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI 13.43, -0.44, -3.2%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line

  • Vail Resorts (MTN 217.00, +0.07, +0.03%): misses by $0.01, misses on revs; reiterates FY24 net income and reported EBITDA forecasts

  • DocuSign (DOCU 46.91, -0.64, -1.4%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus, raises billings guidance

  • Guidewire Software (GWRE 98.91, +0.06, +0.1%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line

  • First Solar (FSLR 148.94, +4.76, +3.3%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while Japan's Nikkei (-1.7%) underperformed after yesterday's big rally in the yen. Japan's Nikkei: -1.7% (-3.4% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1% (-3.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-2.1% for the week), India's Sensex: +0.4% (+3.5% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +1.0% (+0.5% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% (+1.7% for the week)

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's Q3 GDP -0.7% qtr/qtr (expected -0.5%; last 0.9%); -2.9% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last 3.6%). Q3 GDP Private Consumption -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%) and Q3 GDP Price Index 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 3.8%). October Household Spending -0.1% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.3%); -2.5% yr/yr (expected -3.0%; last -2.8%). October overall wage income 1.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%). November Economy Watchers Current Index 49.5 (expected 49.0; last 49.5)

      • South Korea's October Current Account surplus $6.80 bln (last surplus of $5.42 bln)

      • New Zealand's Q3 Manufacturing Sales Volume -2.7% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 2.6%)


  • In news:

    • Today, the Japanese currency is modestly lower against the dollar at 144.55 after making a run at yesterday's intraday high (141.62).

    • The Bank of Japan did not make any changes to its bond buying plans.

    • Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that a decision on the timing of a tax hike for higher defense spending has not been made yet and he refused to comment on recent moves in the yen.

    • The Reserve Bank of India made no changes to its policy stance, as expected.



  • Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: +0.3% (+0.9% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.2% (+1.6% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (UNCH week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +0.7% (+1.8% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1% (+0.6% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1% (+0.1% week-to-date)

    • In economic data:

      • Germany's November CPI -0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%); 3.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.8%)

      • France's Q3 Nonfarm Payrolls 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%)


  • In news:

    • The Bank of England's latest inflation expectations survey showed that year-ahead inflation expectations slowed to 3.3% from 3.6% in August while five-year expectations rose to 3.2% from 2.9%.

    • Finance ministers from the EU did not reach agreement on reforms to rules governing public spending, but some members of the group could meet again in the coming weeks.

    • French Finance Minister Le Maire said that the goal is to complete an agreement before the end of 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -6 @ 4,634

  • DJIA Futures: -55 @ 36,463

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -54 @ 16,190

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.7%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.40 @ 70.74

  • Nat Gas +0.016 @ 2.601

  • Gold -1.20 @ 2045.20

  • Silver +0.031 @ 24.090

  • Copper +0.0305 @ 3.8280

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Avid Bioservices ( CDMO 0.00% ) misses by $0.09, misses on revs; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Broadcom ( AVGO 0.00% ) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; projects revs of approx. $50 bln in FY24 (Oct), including VMware contributions; increases dividend

  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES ( IMOS 0.00% ) reports November revenue +20.3% yr/yr to NT$1,873.9 mln ($59.9 mln)

  • Cooper ( COO 0.00% ) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • DocuSign ( DOCU 0.00% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus, raises billings guidance

  • Guidewire Software ( GWRE 0.79% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line

  • HashiCorp ( HCP 0.00% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Hello Group ( MOMO 0.00% ) beats by RMB0.83, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • lululemon athletica ( LULU 0.00% ) beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; approved an additional stock repurchase program up to $1.0 bln on November 29

  • Monday.com ( MNDY 0.00% ) in slide presentation last night sees FY24-26 revenue growth of high 20/low 30s percentages range; expects to generate $1 billion in free cash flow from 2023-2026; expects to double annual contract value by 2026

  • National Beverage ( FIZZ 0.00% ) reports Q2 EPS inline with single analyst estimate, misses on revenue

  • Planet Labs ( PL 0.77% ) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • RH ( RH 0.54% ) misses by $1.36, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Smartsheet SMAR 0.34% beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Smith & Wesson Brands SWBI 0.00% misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM 1.47% ) reports November revs decreased 7.5% yr/yr to ~NT$206.03 bln

  • Torrid ( CURV 2.12% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs above consensus

  • Vail Resorts ( MTN 1.51% ) misses by $0.01, misses on revs; reiterates FY24 net income and reported EBITDA forecasts

News:

  • China pledges to strengthen the government's fiscal measures, according to Bloomberg

  • California will face record $68 bln budget deficit, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Congress will vote on $900 bln national defense authorization act next week, which will include 5.2% pay increase for troops, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • EU mulling restarting WTO case against US steel tariffs, according to Bloomberg

  • White House announces billions to deliver world-class high-speed rail and launch new passenger rail corridors across the country

  • Apple ( AAPL 0.00% ) to make 25% of iPhones in India, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Boeing ( BA 0.19% ) close to Thai Air order, according to Bloomberg

  • Coherus BioSciences ( CHRS 0.00% ) CFO resigns to pursue other opportunities; provides CFO transition plans

  • Crown Castle ( CCI 0.47% ) announces retirement of Jay Brown as CEO, Antony Melone appointed interim CEO; effective Dec 6

  • FirstEnergy's ( FE 0.40% ) PA subsidiaries receive approval from the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission to consolidate into a single operating company; expected to close January 1, 2024

  • Levi Strauss LEVI 0.92% CEO Chip Bergh to retire on April 26, 2024; to be succeeded by current President Michelle Gass, effective January 29, 2024

  • MBIA ( MBI 0.27% ) announces extraordinary cash dividend on MBIA common stock of $8.00/share to shareholders of record as of December 18 to be paid on December 22, which totals ~$409 million

  • Meta Platforms ( META 0.00% ): NM Attorney General Ral Torrez files lawsuit against META and Mark Zuckerberg to protect children from sexual abuse and human trafficking

  • Post ( POST 0.73% ) reports avian influenza incidents at two of its third-party egg-laying facilities (impact uncertain)

  • Rivian RIVN 0.00% to eliminate jobs, according to The Information

  • S&P Global ( SPGI 0.31% ) announces departure of CFO Ewout Steenbergen, he will remain until March 2024 to ensure continuity and a successful transition; co begins process of evaluating both internal and external CFO candidates

  • Spotify ( SPOT 1.05% ) CFO Paul Vogel will be leaving the company on March 31, 2024; Ben Kung, VP of Financial Planning and Analysis to take on responsibilities in the interim

  • Stellantis ( STLA 0.04% ) to lower Detroit SUV production because of emission rules, according to Reuters

  • Tesla's ( TSLA 0.00% ) China sales in November increased 5%, according to Bloomberg

  • UPS ( UPS 0.78% ): Teamsters in Louisville may strike over unfair labor practices

M&A:

  • ArcelorMittal ( MT 1.15% ) completes sale of ArcelorMittal Temirtau to the Qazaqstan Investment Corporation

  • Arthur J. Gallagher ( AJG 0.60% ) acquires Adelaide, Australia-based My Plan Manager; financial terms were not disclosed

  • Brown & Brown ( BRO 0.19% ) to acquire Automotive Business Solutions; no financial terms disclosed

  • Honeywell ( HON 0.00% ) acquires Carrier's (CARR) Global Access Solutions for $4.95 bln

  • Intchains Group Limited ( ICG 0.00% ) expands WEB3 industry presence, acquires Goldshell brand-related assets

  • LyondellBasell divests Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives business and production facility to INEOS for $700 mln

  • Sibanye-Stillwater ( SBSW 2.61% ) received formal notification that Lingotto Investment Management, in aggregate, has acquired an interest resulting in 5.11% holding of the total issued shares of Sibanye-Stillwater

Syndicate:

  • CMS Energy ( CMS 0.19% ) filed prospectus supplement dated December 7, 2023

  • Gates Industrial ( GTES 0.57% ) files for 15,000,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholders

  • NewAmsterdam Pharma ( NAMS 0.00% ) files $400 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • Spyre Therapeutics ( SYRE 0.00% ) enters $180 mln private placement

  • Vesta Real Estate ( VTMX 0.50% ) prices follow-on offering of 4.25 mln ADS's for $35.00 per share

  • Vivid Seats ( SEAT 0.00% ) prices offering of 18,500,000 shares of the Company's Class A common stock by Hoya Topco at $6.50 per share

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • MBI +62.5%, CURV +17.8%, MOMO +8.4%, SMAR +3.8%, AVTR +3.4%, BLBD +2.4%, RKLB +1.9%, MCRB +1.8%, CUBE +1.7%, DLR +1.5%, FIZZ +1.4%, PRIM +1.2%, CCI +1.2%, OC +1.1%, JOUT +1%, MITK +0.7%, MT +0.6%, AVGO +0.6%


  • Gapping down:

    • HCP -24.1%, CDMO -19.7%, RH -9%, GTES -8%, SWBI -7.9%, SYRE -4.3%, LULU -3.2%, PL -2.7%, AZUL -1.9%, SPOT -1%, GSL -0.9%, DOCU -0.9%, BNTX -0.7%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • American Woodmark (AMWD) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $88

    • Broadcom (AVGO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Summit Insights

    • Bluebirdbio (BLUE) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $7

    • Equifax (EFX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

    • First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $237

    • Owens Corning (OC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $180

    • Qorvo (QRVO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $134

    • ALX Oncology (ALXO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $18

    • Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $12

    • Airbus (EADSY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

    • Ericsson (ERIC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies


  • Downgrades:

    • Casey's General (CASY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets

    • Cintas (CTAS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $590

    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt raised to $710

    • KB Home (KBH) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $46

    • Lam Research (LRCX) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $720

    • Pool (POOL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $368

    • Qualcomm (QCOM) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $132

    • Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $17

    • AZEK (AZEK) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $37

    • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $30

    • Cerevel Therapeutics (CERE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $45

    • CleanSpark (CLSK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $8

    • Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $9

    • FactSet (FDS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $480


  • Others:

    • Allogene (ALLO) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $7

    • Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) initiated with a Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $171

    • BridgeBio Pharma initiated with a Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $58

    • Freshpet (FRPT) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $104

    • Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $83

    • Synaptics (SYNA) initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $130

    • Aerovate Therapeutics (AVTE) initiated with a Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $35

    • BellRing Brands (BRBR) initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt $60

    • Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $45

    • CB Financial Service (CBFV) initiated with a Neutral at Janney; tgt $25

    • Celcuity (CELC) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $27

    • Clean Harbors (CLH) initiated with a Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $190

    • Cogent Biosciences (COGT) initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $18

    • CVB Financial (CVBF) initiated with a Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt $21

    • Endava (DAVA) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $77

    • Eventbrite (EB) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $13

    • East West Banc (EWBC) initiated with a Overweight at Stephens; tgt $79


Econ Data:

  • 08:30 ET: November Nonfarm Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 175K; Prior 150K)

  • 08:30 ET: November Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 155K; Prior 99K)

  • 08:30 ET: November Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; Prior 0.2%)

  • 08:30 ET: November Unemployment Rate (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%; Prior 3.9%)

  • 08:30 ET: November Average Workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.3; Prior 34.3)

  • 10:00 ET: December Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 62.6; Prior 61.3)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Dec 4)

    • Morning: SAIC

    • Afternoon: GTLB


  • Tuesday (Nov 5)

    • Morning: AZO CNM CRMT DBI FERG GII SIG SJM

    • Afternoon: ASAN AVAV BOX MDB PLAY PHR S SFIX TOL YEXT


  • Wednesday (Dec 6)

    • Morning: BF.B CPB KFY LOVE OLLI THO UNFI

    • Afternoon: AGX AI BASE BRZE CXM CHPT CHWY GEF GME OXM SPWH SMTC VEEV VRNT


  • Thursday (Dec 7)

    • Morning: CIEN DG GMS

    • Afternoon: AVGO COO CURV DOCU GWRE HPC LULU SMAR SWBI MTN


  • Friday (Dec 8)

    • Morning: MOMO


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while Japan's Nikkei (-1.7%) underperformed after yesterday's big rally in the yen. Today, the Japanese currency is modestly lower against the dollar at 144.55 after making a run at yesterday's intraday high (141.62). The Bank of Japan did not make any changes to its bond buying plans. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that a decision on the timing of a tax hike for higher defense spending has not been made yet and he refused to comment on recent moves in the yen. The Reserve Bank of India made no changes to its policy stance, as expected.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's Q3 GDP -0.7% qtr/qtr (expected -0.5%; last 0.9%); -2.9% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last 3.6%). Q3 GDP Private Consumption -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%) and Q3 GDP Price Index 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 3.8%). October Household Spending -0.1% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.3%); -2.5% yr/yr (expected -3.0%; last -2.8%). October overall wage income 1.5% yr/yr (last 0.6%). November Economy Watchers Current Index 49.5 (expected 49.0; last 49.5)

    • South Korea's October Current Account surplus $6.80 bln (last surplus of $5.42 bln)

    • New Zealand's Q3 Manufacturing Sales Volume -2.7% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 2.6%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.7% (-3.4% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1% (-3.0% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% (-2.1% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: +0.4% (+3.5% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +1.0% (+0.5% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% (+1.7% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 144.47

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.1702

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 83.34

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.7%%

Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the week. The Bank of England's latest inflation expectations survey showed that year-ahead inflation expectations slowed to 3.3% from 3.6% in August while five-year expectations rose to 3.2% from 2.9%. Finance ministers from the EU did not reach agreement on reforms to rules governing public spending, but some members of the group could meet again in the coming weeks. French Finance Minister Le Maire said that the goal is to complete an agreement before the end of 2023.

  • In economic data:

    • Germany's November CPI -0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%); 3.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.8%)

    • France's Q3 Nonfarm Payrolls 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.3% (+0.9% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2% (+1.6% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2% (UNCH week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: +0.7% (+1.8% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1% (+0.6% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1% (+0.1% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0782

  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2581

  • USD/CHF: -0.1% to 0.874

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