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08/03/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value.

Both buyers are sellers are lacking conviction this morning ahead of day two of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. Equity futures had been slightly higher earlier, but have deteriorated somewhat and now skew slightly negative.

Yesterday's close marked the first time since 1981 that the 2s10s spread was more than 100 basis points, reflecting worries about the Fed possibly taking rates too high and forcing a recession. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points this morning at 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.97%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 7.4% with refinancing applications increasing 9.0% and purchase applications rising 7.0%.

In corporate news:

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD 132.00, +7.07, +5.7%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Diversey Holdings (DSEY 8.22, +2.27, +38.2%): to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Shoals Technologies (SHLS 24.35, -2.20, -8.3%): prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Tesla (TSLA 184.87, -2.84, -1.5%) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG 61.74, +1.33, +2.2%): JPMorgan initiated coverage at Overweight

  • Occidental Petro (OXY 62.53, +1.68, +2.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) bought another 5,801,791 shares worth ~$354.5 mln (3/3-3/7 transaction dates)

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX 4.5400, -0.43, -8.7%): misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Yext (YEXT 7.78, -0.71, -8.4%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Casey's General (CASY 211.51, +1.81, +0.9%): beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 32.09, -8.87, -21.7%): misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Campbell Soup (CPB 52.95, +0.82, +1.6%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


  • In news:

  • Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate.

  • Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates.

  • Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose.

  • Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -2 @ 3,984

  • DJIA Futures: -35 @ 32,822

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -3 @ 12,149

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.36 @ 77.22

  • Nat Gas -0.065 @ 2.622

  • Gold -1.25 @ 1818.75

  • Silver -0.001 @ 20.198

  • Copper +0.0353 @ 4.0103

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ABM Industries ( ABM 3.01% ) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Adidas AG ( ADDYY ) reports Q4 results; extends appointment of CFO

  • Agiliti ( AGTI 4.26% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Arlo Technologies ( ARLO 5.87% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Campbell Soup ( CPB 0.34% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

  • Casey's General ( CASY 2.78% ) beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • Couchbase ( BASE 7.48% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Cricut ( CRCT 2.39% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs (single est)

  • CrowdStrike ( CRWD 1.68% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Forward Air ( FWRD 1.67% ) provides update on 1Q23 performance; shipments per day decreased 6.7%, continues to target 2023 with higher net income per diluted share than 2022

  • Globalstar ( GSAT 0.87% ) reiterates its FY23 guidance

  • International Money Express ( IMXI 6.04% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Korn/Ferry ( KFY 3.20% ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

  • LifeStance Health Group ( LFST 1.55% ) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Life Time ( LTH 0.12% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Maxeon Solar ( MAXN 0.18% ) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, guides Q1 revenue above consensus, FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Membership Collective Group ( MCG 6.50% ) beats on top and bottom lines; sees FY23 revs in-line with consensus

  • Nuvei Corporation ( NVEI 3.17% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • REV Group ( REVG 4.84% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; reiterates FY23 revs in-line

  • Stellantis ( STLA 2.06% ) and other automotive groups in Italy announce agreement with unions to salary increases, according to Reuters

  • Stitch Fix ( SFIX 4.81% ) misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Sumo Logic ( SUMO 2.95% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; company to be acquired by entities affiliated with Francisco Partners Management

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • United Natural Foods ( UNFI 5.30% ) misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Vertex ( VERX 0.89% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 3.07% ) misses by $0.41, misses on revs

  • W&T Offshore ( WTI 0.92% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs

  • Yext ( YEXT 6.68% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Zymeworks ( ZYME 1.86% ) beats by $1.60, beats on revs

News:

  • Biden administration seeking to increase Pentagon budget above $835 bln, according to Bloomberg

  • Albertsons ( ACI 0.10% ) established a retention program to incentivize and promote retention of a key group of Company employees to help consummate the Kroger (KR) merger

  • Ares Management ( ARES 6.78% ) reportedly backing Toys 'R' Us owner WHP Global to the tune of $1.6 bln valuation, according to Bloomberg

  • Baidu ( BIDU 0.73% ) to test AI chat feature next week, according to DigiTimes

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.94% ) has elected Caroline Dorsa as Chair of the Board of Directors, effective immediately following the Company's 2023 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical ( BMRN 2.69% ) announces that the FDA accepted New Drug Application (sNDA) for VOXZOGO (vosoritide) for injection to expand treatment in the United States to include children with achondroplasia under the age of 5

  • Boston Beer Co ( SAM 3.44% ) CFO Frank H Smalla stepping down to pursue another opportunity; Matthew D Murphy to serve as interim CFO

  • Catalyst Pharma ( CPRX 2.72% ) provided litigation updates

  • Chart Industries ( GTLS 8.23% ) and GenH2 execute MoU for hydrogen liquefaction systems

  • Cidara Therapeutics ( CDTX 4.00% ) Presents Preclinical Data on CD73-Targeting Drug-Fc Conjugate at the 2023 ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress

  • Community Healthcare Trust ( CHCT 3.96% ) appoints David H Dupuy, former Interim CEO since February 10, as permanent CEO, effective March 6

  • DBV Technologies ( DBVT 4.14% ) Announces First Patient Screened in VITESSE Phase 3 Clinical Trial in Peanut-Allergic Children 4 - 7 Years Old

  • Ford Motor ( F 2.81% ) to discount Mustang Mach-E vehicle in China by $5,700 (40K yuan) until the end of April, according to Reuters

  • Genco Shipping & Trading ( GNK 1.40% ) COO Robert Hughes resigned in connection with an internal consolidation of the Company's business departments, following discussions that commenced on March 2

  • Geo Group ( GEO 1.53% ) awarded a new five-year contract, inclusive of renewal options, by Santa Clara County, California for the use of BI VeriWatch

  • Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste ( ASR 2.28% ) reports February 2023 traffic

  • Kaman ( KAMN 3.59% ) and PHI Aviation Announce Commercial Agreement

  • Mesoblast ( MESO 4.29% ) receives FDA acceptance of resubmission of BLA for Remestemcel-L

  • Palantir Technologies ( PLTR 4.42% ) selected by the State Department to provide the Bureau of Medical Services with data management services; contract is worth $99.6 mln over five years

  • Parsons ( PSN 1.05% ) establishes strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), accelerating the digital transformation of global infrastructure

  • PayPal ( PYPL 3.29% ) CFO Blake Jorgensen stepping down, effective immediately; will remain with company as senior advisor through September 15, 2023

  • Pembina Pipeline ( PBA 1.44% ) approves renewal of share repurchase program

  • SAGE Therapeutics ( SAGE 8.15% ) and Biogen (BIIB) share update on FDA Advisory Committee for Zuranolone

  • Silvergate ( SI 11.27% ) looking to avoid shutdown, according to Bloomberg

  • Starbucks ( SBUX 0.92% ): Howard Schultz to testify about labor practices at Starbucks, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) appoints Corey Baker to CFO role, effective immediately upon the filing of the company's annual report

  • Trevi Therapeutics ( TRVI 14.21% ) announced that the USPTO issued a notice of allowance for nalbuphine ER's method of treatment of chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

  • Volaris Aviation ( VLRS 9.57% ) reports February 2023 traffic results; capacity increased by 20.4% yr/yr and RPMs increased by 21.2%

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 2.67% ) halts production of two Star Wars titles, according to Variety

  • WeWork ( WE 13.94% ) in talks to restructure over $3 bln in outstanding debt, according to the New York Times

M&A:

  • Diversey Holdings ( DSEY 0.37% ) to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Kimball ( KBAL 0.32% ): HNI Corporation (HNI) to acquire Kimball International in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $485 mln

  • Marathon Petroleum ( MPC 0.13% ) announced the acquisition of a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy from Cresta Fund Management for $50 mln

Syndicate:

  • AerCap ( AER 1.55% ) files for 111,500,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • AerSale ( ASLE 2.80% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Affirm ( AFRM 8.31% ) entered into an additional privately negotiated transaction with a holder of its outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

  • Banc of California ( BANC 2.01% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY 8.94% ) says it received additional proceeds from the previously announced equity offering

  • BridgeBio Pharma ( BBIO 8.88% ) prices offering of 8,823,530 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $17.00 per share

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 1.01% ) entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with holders of $110.3 mln 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025

  • Citigroup ( C 0.53% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 2.59% ) awarded approximately $30 mln contract by the City of Lancaster, CA

  • Permian Resources ( PR 2.01% ) prices secondary offering of 27.5 mln shares of common stock at $11.00 per share

  • Portillo's ( PTLO 1.29% ) prices offering of 8.0 mln shares of common stock at $21.05 per share

  • Verona Pharma ( VRNA 3.22% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Shoals Technologies ( SHLS 5.86% ) prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Southwest Gas ( SWX 0.59% ) commences an underwritten public offering of $215 mln in shares of its common stock

IPOs:

  • Softbank ( SFTBY ): Ziroom considering Hong Kong IPO to raise about $1 bln as soon as this year, according to Bloomberg

  • Expected to Price:

  • Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI): The provider of frac sand and logistics services in the Permian Basis is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $20-$23.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MESO +13.9%, MAXN +13.2%, ZYME +12.4%, ARLO +12.3%, WE +7.9%, CRWD +6.8%, DBVT +6.6%, WTI +4.6%, COCO +4.4%, OXY +3%, BASE +2.6%, LFST +2.1%, VRNA +1.9%, RIVN +1.7%, VLRS +1.1%, PBA +0.9%, CASY +0.9%


  • Gapping down:

  • SOUN -10.5%, SHLS -8.4%, SFIX -6.8%, YEXT -5.9%, MBC -5.8%, PTLO -5%, BANC -4.9%, ASLE -4.8%, AGTI -4.3%, PR -3.3%, SWX -3.2%, IMXI -3.1%, MODN -2.2%, ACI -2%, CDTX -1.2%, AER -1%, SAM -0.9%, GSAT -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AGNC Investment (AGNC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $12.50

  • Atlantica Yield (AY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $32

  • CMS Energy (CMS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital; tgt $203

  • Sea Limited (SE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at UOB Kay Hian; tgt $94.34


  • Downgrades:

  • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12.50

  • Cara Therapeutics (CARA) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $6

  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $78

  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • TDCX (TDCX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC; tgt $13

  • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; tgt raised to $210

  • Zscaler (ZS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities; tgt $130


  • Others:

  • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $263

  • Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $22

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $214

  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $120

  • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Piedmont Lithium (PLL) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $140

  • Sabre (SABR) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $4

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $87

  • Solid Power (SLDP) resumed with a Buy at Needham; tgt $5


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -5.7%)

  • 08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 195K; Prior 106K)

  • 08:30 ET: Trade Balance for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus -$69.0B; Prior -$67.4B)

  • 10:00 ET: JOLTS - Job Openings for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 11.012M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1.17M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Mar


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 6)

  • Morning: AZUL CIEN RIDE

  • Afternoon: AVAV CVGW DOMO GWRE NTNX TCOM WW


  • Tuesday (Mar 7)

  • Morning: MASS DKS DOLE SWIM SE MCRB SQSP THO

  • Afternoon: AGTI ARLO CASY BASE CRCT CRWD SFIX WTI YEXT


  • Wednesday (Mar 8)

  • Morning: ABM BF.B CPB IMXI KFY LTH LFST REVG COCO UNFI VERX VRDN

  • Afternoon: ASAN ESTE EOLS MDB NDLS ONL SMRT SOVO


  • Thursday (Mar 9)

  • Morning: BJ GCO HLLY JD PSFE TTC

  • Afternoon: BIRD AOUT DOCU LOCO GPS HCP HRT AVO ORCL SWBI ULTA MTN WPM ZUMZ


  • Friday (Mar 10)

  • Morning: BKE GENI



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 137.25

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.9721

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 81.95

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates. Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose. Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0540

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.1842

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9427The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value.

Both buyers are sellers are lacking conviction this morning ahead of day two of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. Equity futures had been slightly higher earlier, but have deteriorated somewhat and now skew slightly negative.

Yesterday's close marked the first time since 1981 that the 2s10s spread was more than 100 basis points, reflecting worries about the Fed possibly taking rates too high and forcing a recession. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points this morning at 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.97%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 7.4% with refinancing applications increasing 9.0% and purchase applications rising 7.0%.

In corporate news:

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD 132.00, +7.07, +5.7%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Diversey Holdings (DSEY 8.22, +2.27, +38.2%): to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Shoals Technologies (SHLS 24.35, -2.20, -8.3%): prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Tesla (TSLA 184.87, -2.84, -1.5%) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG 61.74, +1.33, +2.2%): JPMorgan initiated coverage at Overweight

  • Occidental Petro (OXY 62.53, +1.68, +2.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) bought another 5,801,791 shares worth ~$354.5 mln (3/3-3/7 transaction dates)

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX 4.5400, -0.43, -8.7%): misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Yext (YEXT 7.78, -0.71, -8.4%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Casey's General (CASY 211.51, +1.81, +0.9%): beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 32.09, -8.87, -21.7%): misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Campbell Soup (CPB 52.95, +0.82, +1.6%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


  • In news:

  • Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate.

  • Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates.

  • Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose.

  • Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -2 @ 3,984

  • DJIA Futures: -35 @ 32,822

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -3 @ 12,149

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.36 @ 77.22

  • Nat Gas -0.065 @ 2.622

  • Gold -1.25 @ 1818.75

  • Silver -0.001 @ 20.198

  • Copper +0.0353 @ 4.0103

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ABM Industries ( ABM 3.01% ) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Adidas AG ( ADDYY ) reports Q4 results; extends appointment of CFO

  • Agiliti ( AGTI 4.26% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Arlo Technologies ( ARLO 5.87% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Campbell Soup ( CPB 0.34% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

  • Casey's General ( CASY 2.78% ) beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • Couchbase ( BASE 7.48% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Cricut ( CRCT 2.39% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs (single est)

  • CrowdStrike ( CRWD 1.68% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Forward Air ( FWRD 1.67% ) provides update on 1Q23 performance; shipments per day decreased 6.7%, continues to target 2023 with higher net income per diluted share than 2022

  • Globalstar ( GSAT 0.87% ) reiterates its FY23 guidance

  • International Money Express ( IMXI 6.04% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Korn/Ferry ( KFY 3.20% ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

  • LifeStance Health Group ( LFST 1.55% ) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Life Time ( LTH 0.12% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Maxeon Solar ( MAXN 0.18% ) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, guides Q1 revenue above consensus, FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Membership Collective Group ( MCG 6.50% ) beats on top and bottom lines; sees FY23 revs in-line with consensus

  • Nuvei Corporation ( NVEI 3.17% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • REV Group ( REVG 4.84% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; reiterates FY23 revs in-line

  • Stellantis ( STLA 2.06% ) and other automotive groups in Italy announce agreement with unions to salary increases, according to Reuters

  • Stitch Fix ( SFIX 4.81% ) misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Sumo Logic ( SUMO 2.95% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; company to be acquired by entities affiliated with Francisco Partners Management

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • United Natural Foods ( UNFI 5.30% ) misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Vertex ( VERX 0.89% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 3.07% ) misses by $0.41, misses on revs

  • W&T Offshore ( WTI 0.92% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs

  • Yext ( YEXT 6.68% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Zymeworks ( ZYME 1.86% ) beats by $1.60, beats on revs

News:

  • Biden administration seeking to increase Pentagon budget above $835 bln, according to Bloomberg

  • Albertsons ( ACI 0.10% ) established a retention program to incentivize and promote retention of a key group of Company employees to help consummate the Kroger (KR) merger

  • Ares Management ( ARES 6.78% ) reportedly backing Toys 'R' Us owner WHP Global to the tune of $1.6 bln valuation, according to Bloomberg

  • Baidu ( BIDU 0.73% ) to test AI chat feature next week, according to DigiTimes

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.94% ) has elected Caroline Dorsa as Chair of the Board of Directors, effective immediately following the Company's 2023 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical ( BMRN 2.69% ) announces that the FDA accepted New Drug Application (sNDA) for VOXZOGO (vosoritide) for injection to expand treatment in the United States to include children with achondroplasia under the age of 5

  • Boston Beer Co ( SAM 3.44% ) CFO Frank H Smalla stepping down to pursue another opportunity; Matthew D Murphy to serve as interim CFO

  • Catalyst Pharma ( CPRX 2.72% ) provided litigation updates

  • Chart Industries ( GTLS 8.23% ) and GenH2 execute MoU for hydrogen liquefaction systems

  • Cidara Therapeutics ( CDTX 4.00% ) Presents Preclinical Data on CD73-Targeting Drug-Fc Conjugate at the 2023 ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress

  • Community Healthcare Trust ( CHCT 3.96% ) appoints David H Dupuy, former Interim CEO since February 10, as permanent CEO, effective March 6

  • DBV Technologies ( DBVT 4.14% ) Announces First Patient Screened in VITESSE Phase 3 Clinical Trial in Peanut-Allergic Children 4 - 7 Years Old

  • Ford Motor ( F 2.81% ) to discount Mustang Mach-E vehicle in China by $5,700 (40K yuan) until the end of April, according to Reuters

  • Genco Shipping & Trading ( GNK 1.40% ) COO Robert Hughes resigned in connection with an internal consolidation of the Company's business departments, following discussions that commenced on March 2

  • Geo Group ( GEO 1.53% ) awarded a new five-year contract, inclusive of renewal options, by Santa Clara County, California for the use of BI VeriWatch

  • Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste ( ASR 2.28% ) reports February 2023 traffic

  • Kaman ( KAMN 3.59% ) and PHI Aviation Announce Commercial Agreement

  • Mesoblast ( MESO 4.29% ) receives FDA acceptance of resubmission of BLA for Remestemcel-L

  • Palantir Technologies ( PLTR 4.42% ) selected by the State Department to provide the Bureau of Medical Services with data management services; contract is worth $99.6 mln over five years

  • Parsons ( PSN 1.05% ) establishes strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), accelerating the digital transformation of global infrastructure

  • PayPal ( PYPL 3.29% ) CFO Blake Jorgensen stepping down, effective immediately; will remain with company as senior advisor through September 15, 2023

  • Pembina Pipeline ( PBA 1.44% ) approves renewal of share repurchase program

  • SAGE Therapeutics ( SAGE 8.15% ) and Biogen (BIIB) share update on FDA Advisory Committee for Zuranolone

  • Silvergate ( SI 11.27% ) looking to avoid shutdown, according to Bloomberg

  • Starbucks ( SBUX 0.92% ): Howard Schultz to testify about labor practices at Starbucks, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) appoints Corey Baker to CFO role, effective immediately upon the filing of the company's annual report

  • Trevi Therapeutics ( TRVI 14.21% ) announced that the USPTO issued a notice of allowance for nalbuphine ER's method of treatment of chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

  • Volaris Aviation ( VLRS 9.57% ) reports February 2023 traffic results; capacity increased by 20.4% yr/yr and RPMs increased by 21.2%

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 2.67% ) halts production of two Star Wars titles, according to Variety

  • WeWork ( WE 13.94% ) in talks to restructure over $3 bln in outstanding debt, according to the New York Times

M&A:

  • Diversey Holdings ( DSEY 0.37% ) to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Kimball ( KBAL 0.32% ): HNI Corporation (HNI) to acquire Kimball International in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $485 mln

  • Marathon Petroleum ( MPC 0.13% ) announced the acquisition of a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy from Cresta Fund Management for $50 mln

Syndicate:

  • AerCap ( AER 1.55% ) files for 111,500,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • AerSale ( ASLE 2.80% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Affirm ( AFRM 8.31% ) entered into an additional privately negotiated transaction with a holder of its outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

  • Banc of California ( BANC 2.01% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY 8.94% ) says it received additional proceeds from the previously announced equity offering

  • BridgeBio Pharma ( BBIO 8.88% ) prices offering of 8,823,530 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $17.00 per share

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 1.01% ) entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with holders of $110.3 mln 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025

  • Citigroup ( C 0.53% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 2.59% ) awarded approximately $30 mln contract by the City of Lancaster, CA

  • Permian Resources ( PR 2.01% ) prices secondary offering of 27.5 mln shares of common stock at $11.00 per share

  • Portillo's ( PTLO 1.29% ) prices offering of 8.0 mln shares of common stock at $21.05 per share

  • Verona Pharma ( VRNA 3.22% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Shoals Technologies ( SHLS 5.86% ) prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Southwest Gas ( SWX 0.59% ) commences an underwritten public offering of $215 mln in shares of its common stock

IPOs:

  • Softbank ( SFTBY ): Ziroom considering Hong Kong IPO to raise about $1 bln as soon as this year, according to Bloomberg

  • Expected to Price:

  • Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI): The provider of frac sand and logistics services in the Permian Basis is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $20-$23.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MESO +13.9%, MAXN +13.2%, ZYME +12.4%, ARLO +12.3%, WE +7.9%, CRWD +6.8%, DBVT +6.6%, WTI +4.6%, COCO +4.4%, OXY +3%, BASE +2.6%, LFST +2.1%, VRNA +1.9%, RIVN +1.7%, VLRS +1.1%, PBA +0.9%, CASY +0.9%


  • Gapping down:

  • SOUN -10.5%, SHLS -8.4%, SFIX -6.8%, YEXT -5.9%, MBC -5.8%, PTLO -5%, BANC -4.9%, ASLE -4.8%, AGTI -4.3%, PR -3.3%, SWX -3.2%, IMXI -3.1%, MODN -2.2%, ACI -2%, CDTX -1.2%, AER -1%, SAM -0.9%, GSAT -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AGNC Investment (AGNC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $12.50

  • Atlantica Yield (AY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $32

  • CMS Energy (CMS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital; tgt $203

  • Sea Limited (SE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at UOB Kay Hian; tgt $94.34


  • Downgrades:

  • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12.50

  • Cara Therapeutics (CARA) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $6

  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $78

  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • TDCX (TDCX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC; tgt $13

  • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; tgt raised to $210

  • Zscaler (ZS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities; tgt $130


  • Others:

  • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $263

  • Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $22

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $214

  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $120

  • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Piedmont Lithium (PLL) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $140

  • Sabre (SABR) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $4

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $87

  • Solid Power (SLDP) resumed with a Buy at Needham; tgt $5


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -5.7%)

  • 08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 195K; Prior 106K)

  • 08:30 ET: Trade Balance for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus -$69.0B; Prior -$67.4B)

  • 10:00 ET: JOLTS - Job Openings for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 11.012M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1.17M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Mar


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 6)

  • Morning: AZUL CIEN RIDE

  • Afternoon: AVAV CVGW DOMO GWRE NTNX TCOM WW


  • Tuesday (Mar 7)

  • Morning: MASS DKS DOLE SWIM SE MCRB SQSP THO

  • Afternoon: AGTI ARLO CASY BASE CRCT CRWD SFIX WTI YEXT


  • Wednesday (Mar 8)

  • Morning: ABM BF.B CPB IMXI KFY LTH LFST REVG COCO UNFI VERX VRDN

  • Afternoon: ASAN ESTE EOLS MDB NDLS ONL SMRT SOVO


  • Thursday (Mar 9)

  • Morning: BJ GCO HLLY JD PSFE TTC

  • Afternoon: BIRD AOUT DOCU LOCO GPS HCP HRT AVO ORCL SWBI ULTA MTN WPM ZUMZ


  • Friday (Mar 10)

  • Morning: BKE GENI



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 137.25

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.9721

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 81.95

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates. Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose. Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0540

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.1842

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9427The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value.

Both buyers are sellers are lacking conviction this morning ahead of day two of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. Equity futures had been slightly higher earlier, but have deteriorated somewhat and now skew slightly negative.

Yesterday's close marked the first time since 1981 that the 2s10s spread was more than 100 basis points, reflecting worries about the Fed possibly taking rates too high and forcing a recession. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points this morning at 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.97%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 7.4% with refinancing applications increasing 9.0% and purchase applications rising 7.0%.

In corporate news:

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD 132.00, +7.07, +5.7%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Diversey Holdings (DSEY 8.22, +2.27, +38.2%): to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Shoals Technologies (SHLS 24.35, -2.20, -8.3%): prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Tesla (TSLA 184.87, -2.84, -1.5%) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG 61.74, +1.33, +2.2%): JPMorgan initiated coverage at Overweight

  • Occidental Petro (OXY 62.53, +1.68, +2.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) bought another 5,801,791 shares worth ~$354.5 mln (3/3-3/7 transaction dates)

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX 4.5400, -0.43, -8.7%): misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Yext (YEXT 7.78, -0.71, -8.4%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Casey's General (CASY 211.51, +1.81, +0.9%): beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 32.09, -8.87, -21.7%): misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Campbell Soup (CPB 52.95, +0.82, +1.6%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


  • In news:

  • Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate.

  • Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates.

  • Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose.

  • Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -2 @ 3,984

  • DJIA Futures: -35 @ 32,822

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -3 @ 12,149

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.36 @ 77.22

  • Nat Gas -0.065 @ 2.622

  • Gold -1.25 @ 1818.75

  • Silver -0.001 @ 20.198

  • Copper +0.0353 @ 4.0103

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ABM Industries ( ABM 3.01% ) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Adidas AG ( ADDYY ) reports Q4 results; extends appointment of CFO

  • Agiliti ( AGTI 4.26% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Arlo Technologies ( ARLO 5.87% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Campbell Soup ( CPB 0.34% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

  • Casey's General ( CASY 2.78% ) beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • Couchbase ( BASE 7.48% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Cricut ( CRCT 2.39% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs (single est)

  • CrowdStrike ( CRWD 1.68% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Forward Air ( FWRD 1.67% ) provides update on 1Q23 performance; shipments per day decreased 6.7%, continues to target 2023 with higher net income per diluted share than 2022

  • Globalstar ( GSAT 0.87% ) reiterates its FY23 guidance

  • International Money Express ( IMXI 6.04% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Korn/Ferry ( KFY 3.20% ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

  • LifeStance Health Group ( LFST 1.55% ) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Life Time ( LTH 0.12% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Maxeon Solar ( MAXN 0.18% ) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, guides Q1 revenue above consensus, FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Membership Collective Group ( MCG 6.50% ) beats on top and bottom lines; sees FY23 revs in-line with consensus

  • Nuvei Corporation ( NVEI 3.17% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • REV Group ( REVG 4.84% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; reiterates FY23 revs in-line

  • Stellantis ( STLA 2.06% ) and other automotive groups in Italy announce agreement with unions to salary increases, according to Reuters

  • Stitch Fix ( SFIX 4.81% ) misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Sumo Logic ( SUMO 2.95% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; company to be acquired by entities affiliated with Francisco Partners Management

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • United Natural Foods ( UNFI 5.30% ) misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Vertex ( VERX 0.89% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 3.07% ) misses by $0.41, misses on revs

  • W&T Offshore ( WTI 0.92% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs

  • Yext ( YEXT 6.68% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Zymeworks ( ZYME 1.86% ) beats by $1.60, beats on revs

News:

  • Biden administration seeking to increase Pentagon budget above $835 bln, according to Bloomberg

  • Albertsons ( ACI 0.10% ) established a retention program to incentivize and promote retention of a key group of Company employees to help consummate the Kroger (KR) merger

  • Ares Management ( ARES 6.78% ) reportedly backing Toys 'R' Us owner WHP Global to the tune of $1.6 bln valuation, according to Bloomberg

  • Baidu ( BIDU 0.73% ) to test AI chat feature next week, according to DigiTimes

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.94% ) has elected Caroline Dorsa as Chair of the Board of Directors, effective immediately following the Company's 2023 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical ( BMRN 2.69% ) announces that the FDA accepted New Drug Application (sNDA) for VOXZOGO (vosoritide) for injection to expand treatment in the United States to include children with achondroplasia under the age of 5

  • Boston Beer Co ( SAM 3.44% ) CFO Frank H Smalla stepping down to pursue another opportunity; Matthew D Murphy to serve as interim CFO

  • Catalyst Pharma ( CPRX 2.72% ) provided litigation updates

  • Chart Industries ( GTLS 8.23% ) and GenH2 execute MoU for hydrogen liquefaction systems

  • Cidara Therapeutics ( CDTX 4.00% ) Presents Preclinical Data on CD73-Targeting Drug-Fc Conjugate at the 2023 ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress

  • Community Healthcare Trust ( CHCT 3.96% ) appoints David H Dupuy, former Interim CEO since February 10, as permanent CEO, effective March 6

  • DBV Technologies ( DBVT 4.14% ) Announces First Patient Screened in VITESSE Phase 3 Clinical Trial in Peanut-Allergic Children 4 - 7 Years Old

  • Ford Motor ( F 2.81% ) to discount Mustang Mach-E vehicle in China by $5,700 (40K yuan) until the end of April, according to Reuters

  • Genco Shipping & Trading ( GNK 1.40% ) COO Robert Hughes resigned in connection with an internal consolidation of the Company's business departments, following discussions that commenced on March 2

  • Geo Group ( GEO 1.53% ) awarded a new five-year contract, inclusive of renewal options, by Santa Clara County, California for the use of BI VeriWatch

  • Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste ( ASR 2.28% ) reports February 2023 traffic

  • Kaman ( KAMN 3.59% ) and PHI Aviation Announce Commercial Agreement

  • Mesoblast ( MESO 4.29% ) receives FDA acceptance of resubmission of BLA for Remestemcel-L

  • Palantir Technologies ( PLTR 4.42% ) selected by the State Department to provide the Bureau of Medical Services with data management services; contract is worth $99.6 mln over five years

  • Parsons ( PSN 1.05% ) establishes strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), accelerating the digital transformation of global infrastructure

  • PayPal ( PYPL 3.29% ) CFO Blake Jorgensen stepping down, effective immediately; will remain with company as senior advisor through September 15, 2023

  • Pembina Pipeline ( PBA 1.44% ) approves renewal of share repurchase program

  • SAGE Therapeutics ( SAGE 8.15% ) and Biogen (BIIB) share update on FDA Advisory Committee for Zuranolone

  • Silvergate ( SI 11.27% ) looking to avoid shutdown, according to Bloomberg

  • Starbucks ( SBUX 0.92% ): Howard Schultz to testify about labor practices at Starbucks, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) appoints Corey Baker to CFO role, effective immediately upon the filing of the company's annual report

  • Trevi Therapeutics ( TRVI 14.21% ) announced that the USPTO issued a notice of allowance for nalbuphine ER's method of treatment of chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

  • Volaris Aviation ( VLRS 9.57% ) reports February 2023 traffic results; capacity increased by 20.4% yr/yr and RPMs increased by 21.2%

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 2.67% ) halts production of two Star Wars titles, according to Variety

  • WeWork ( WE 13.94% ) in talks to restructure over $3 bln in outstanding debt, according to the New York Times

M&A:

  • Diversey Holdings ( DSEY 0.37% ) to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Kimball ( KBAL 0.32% ): HNI Corporation (HNI) to acquire Kimball International in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $485 mln

  • Marathon Petroleum ( MPC 0.13% ) announced the acquisition of a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy from Cresta Fund Management for $50 mln

Syndicate:

  • AerCap ( AER 1.55% ) files for 111,500,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • AerSale ( ASLE 2.80% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Affirm ( AFRM 8.31% ) entered into an additional privately negotiated transaction with a holder of its outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

  • Banc of California ( BANC 2.01% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY 8.94% ) says it received additional proceeds from the previously announced equity offering

  • BridgeBio Pharma ( BBIO 8.88% ) prices offering of 8,823,530 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $17.00 per share

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 1.01% ) entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with holders of $110.3 mln 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025

  • Citigroup ( C 0.53% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 2.59% ) awarded approximately $30 mln contract by the City of Lancaster, CA

  • Permian Resources ( PR 2.01% ) prices secondary offering of 27.5 mln shares of common stock at $11.00 per share

  • Portillo's ( PTLO 1.29% ) prices offering of 8.0 mln shares of common stock at $21.05 per share

  • Verona Pharma ( VRNA 3.22% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Shoals Technologies ( SHLS 5.86% ) prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Southwest Gas ( SWX 0.59% ) commences an underwritten public offering of $215 mln in shares of its common stock

IPOs:

  • Softbank ( SFTBY ): Ziroom considering Hong Kong IPO to raise about $1 bln as soon as this year, according to Bloomberg

  • Expected to Price:

  • Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI): The provider of frac sand and logistics services in the Permian Basis is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $20-$23.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MESO +13.9%, MAXN +13.2%, ZYME +12.4%, ARLO +12.3%, WE +7.9%, CRWD +6.8%, DBVT +6.6%, WTI +4.6%, COCO +4.4%, OXY +3%, BASE +2.6%, LFST +2.1%, VRNA +1.9%, RIVN +1.7%, VLRS +1.1%, PBA +0.9%, CASY +0.9%


  • Gapping down:

  • SOUN -10.5%, SHLS -8.4%, SFIX -6.8%, YEXT -5.9%, MBC -5.8%, PTLO -5%, BANC -4.9%, ASLE -4.8%, AGTI -4.3%, PR -3.3%, SWX -3.2%, IMXI -3.1%, MODN -2.2%, ACI -2%, CDTX -1.2%, AER -1%, SAM -0.9%, GSAT -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AGNC Investment (AGNC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $12.50

  • Atlantica Yield (AY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $32

  • CMS Energy (CMS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital; tgt $203

  • Sea Limited (SE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at UOB Kay Hian; tgt $94.34


  • Downgrades:

  • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12.50

  • Cara Therapeutics (CARA) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $6

  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $78

  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • TDCX (TDCX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC; tgt $13

  • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; tgt raised to $210

  • Zscaler (ZS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities; tgt $130


  • Others:

  • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $263

  • Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $22

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $214

  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $120

  • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Piedmont Lithium (PLL) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $140

  • Sabre (SABR) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $4

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $87

  • Solid Power (SLDP) resumed with a Buy at Needham; tgt $5


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -5.7%)

  • 08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 195K; Prior 106K)

  • 08:30 ET: Trade Balance for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus -$69.0B; Prior -$67.4B)

  • 10:00 ET: JOLTS - Job Openings for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 11.012M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1.17M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Mar


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 6)

  • Morning: AZUL CIEN RIDE

  • Afternoon: AVAV CVGW DOMO GWRE NTNX TCOM WW


  • Tuesday (Mar 7)

  • Morning: MASS DKS DOLE SWIM SE MCRB SQSP THO

  • Afternoon: AGTI ARLO CASY BASE CRCT CRWD SFIX WTI YEXT


  • Wednesday (Mar 8)

  • Morning: ABM BF.B CPB IMXI KFY LTH LFST REVG COCO UNFI VERX VRDN

  • Afternoon: ASAN ESTE EOLS MDB NDLS ONL SMRT SOVO


  • Thursday (Mar 9)

  • Morning: BJ GCO HLLY JD PSFE TTC

  • Afternoon: BIRD AOUT DOCU LOCO GPS HCP HRT AVO ORCL SWBI ULTA MTN WPM ZUMZ


  • Friday (Mar 10)

  • Morning: BKE GENI



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 137.25

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.9721

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 81.95

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates. Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose. Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0540

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.1842

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9427The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value.

Both buyers are sellers are lacking conviction this morning ahead of day two of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. Equity futures had been slightly higher earlier, but have deteriorated somewhat and now skew slightly negative.

Yesterday's close marked the first time since 1981 that the 2s10s spread was more than 100 basis points, reflecting worries about the Fed possibly taking rates too high and forcing a recession. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points this morning at 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.97%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 7.4% with refinancing applications increasing 9.0% and purchase applications rising 7.0%.

In corporate news:

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD 132.00, +7.07, +5.7%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Diversey Holdings (DSEY 8.22, +2.27, +38.2%): to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Shoals Technologies (SHLS 24.35, -2.20, -8.3%): prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Tesla (TSLA 184.87, -2.84, -1.5%) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG 61.74, +1.33, +2.2%): JPMorgan initiated coverage at Overweight

  • Occidental Petro (OXY 62.53, +1.68, +2.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) bought another 5,801,791 shares worth ~$354.5 mln (3/3-3/7 transaction dates)

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX 4.5400, -0.43, -8.7%): misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Yext (YEXT 7.78, -0.71, -8.4%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Casey's General (CASY 211.51, +1.81, +0.9%): beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 32.09, -8.87, -21.7%): misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Campbell Soup (CPB 52.95, +0.82, +1.6%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


  • In news:

  • Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate.

  • Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


  • In news:

  • European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates.

  • Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose.

  • Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -2 @ 3,984

  • DJIA Futures: -35 @ 32,822

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -3 @ 12,149

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.36 @ 77.22

  • Nat Gas -0.065 @ 2.622

  • Gold -1.25 @ 1818.75

  • Silver -0.001 @ 20.198

  • Copper +0.0353 @ 4.0103

Earnings/Guidance:

  • ABM Industries ( ABM 3.01% ) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Adidas AG ( ADDYY ) reports Q4 results; extends appointment of CFO

  • Agiliti ( AGTI 4.26% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Arlo Technologies ( ARLO 5.87% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Campbell Soup ( CPB 0.34% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises lower end of guidance for FY23 EPS in-line, raises revs above consensus

  • Casey's General ( CASY 2.78% ) beats by $0.36, reports revs in-line; Expects FY23 same-store inside sales growth of approximately 6% to 7%

  • Couchbase ( BASE 7.48% ) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Cricut ( CRCT 2.39% ) misses by $0.01, beats on revs (single est)

  • CrowdStrike ( CRWD 1.68% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Forward Air ( FWRD 1.67% ) provides update on 1Q23 performance; shipments per day decreased 6.7%, continues to target 2023 with higher net income per diluted share than 2022

  • Globalstar ( GSAT 0.87% ) reiterates its FY23 guidance

  • International Money Express ( IMXI 6.04% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Korn/Ferry ( KFY 3.20% ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line

  • LifeStance Health Group ( LFST 1.55% ) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Life Time ( LTH 0.12% ) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Maxeon Solar ( MAXN 0.18% ) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, guides Q1 revenue above consensus, FY23 revenue below consensus

  • Membership Collective Group ( MCG 6.50% ) beats on top and bottom lines; sees FY23 revs in-line with consensus

  • Nuvei Corporation ( NVEI 3.17% ) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • REV Group ( REVG 4.84% ) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; reiterates FY23 revs in-line

  • Stellantis ( STLA 2.06% ) and other automotive groups in Italy announce agreement with unions to salary increases, according to Reuters

  • Stitch Fix ( SFIX 4.81% ) misses by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; announces new CFO, effective April 3

  • Sumo Logic ( SUMO 2.95% ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; company to be acquired by entities affiliated with Francisco Partners Management

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • United Natural Foods ( UNFI 5.30% ) misses by $0.66, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line

  • Vertex ( VERX 0.89% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Viridian Therapeutics ( VRDN 3.07% ) misses by $0.41, misses on revs

  • W&T Offshore ( WTI 0.92% ) beats by $0.07, beats on revs

  • Yext ( YEXT 6.68% ) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Zymeworks ( ZYME 1.86% ) beats by $1.60, beats on revs

News:

  • Biden administration seeking to increase Pentagon budget above $835 bln, according to Bloomberg

  • Albertsons ( ACI 0.10% ) established a retention program to incentivize and promote retention of a key group of Company employees to help consummate the Kroger (KR) merger

  • Ares Management ( ARES 6.78% ) reportedly backing Toys 'R' Us owner WHP Global to the tune of $1.6 bln valuation, according to Bloomberg

  • Baidu ( BIDU 0.73% ) to test AI chat feature next week, according to DigiTimes

  • Biogen ( BIIB 0.94% ) has elected Caroline Dorsa as Chair of the Board of Directors, effective immediately following the Company's 2023 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical ( BMRN 2.69% ) announces that the FDA accepted New Drug Application (sNDA) for VOXZOGO (vosoritide) for injection to expand treatment in the United States to include children with achondroplasia under the age of 5

  • Boston Beer Co ( SAM 3.44% ) CFO Frank H Smalla stepping down to pursue another opportunity; Matthew D Murphy to serve as interim CFO

  • Catalyst Pharma ( CPRX 2.72% ) provided litigation updates

  • Chart Industries ( GTLS 8.23% ) and GenH2 execute MoU for hydrogen liquefaction systems

  • Cidara Therapeutics ( CDTX 4.00% ) Presents Preclinical Data on CD73-Targeting Drug-Fc Conjugate at the 2023 ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress

  • Community Healthcare Trust ( CHCT 3.96% ) appoints David H Dupuy, former Interim CEO since February 10, as permanent CEO, effective March 6

  • DBV Technologies ( DBVT 4.14% ) Announces First Patient Screened in VITESSE Phase 3 Clinical Trial in Peanut-Allergic Children 4 - 7 Years Old

  • Ford Motor ( F 2.81% ) to discount Mustang Mach-E vehicle in China by $5,700 (40K yuan) until the end of April, according to Reuters

  • Genco Shipping & Trading ( GNK 1.40% ) COO Robert Hughes resigned in connection with an internal consolidation of the Company's business departments, following discussions that commenced on March 2

  • Geo Group ( GEO 1.53% ) awarded a new five-year contract, inclusive of renewal options, by Santa Clara County, California for the use of BI VeriWatch

  • Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste ( ASR 2.28% ) reports February 2023 traffic

  • Kaman ( KAMN 3.59% ) and PHI Aviation Announce Commercial Agreement

  • Mesoblast ( MESO 4.29% ) receives FDA acceptance of resubmission of BLA for Remestemcel-L

  • Palantir Technologies ( PLTR 4.42% ) selected by the State Department to provide the Bureau of Medical Services with data management services; contract is worth $99.6 mln over five years

  • Parsons ( PSN 1.05% ) establishes strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), accelerating the digital transformation of global infrastructure

  • PayPal ( PYPL 3.29% ) CFO Blake Jorgensen stepping down, effective immediately; will remain with company as senior advisor through September 15, 2023

  • Pembina Pipeline ( PBA 1.44% ) approves renewal of share repurchase program

  • SAGE Therapeutics ( SAGE 8.15% ) and Biogen (BIIB) share update on FDA Advisory Committee for Zuranolone

  • Silvergate ( SI 11.27% ) looking to avoid shutdown, according to Bloomberg

  • Starbucks ( SBUX 0.92% ): Howard Schultz to testify about labor practices at Starbucks, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • The Vita Coco Company ( COCO 4.11% ) appoints Corey Baker to CFO role, effective immediately upon the filing of the company's annual report

  • Trevi Therapeutics ( TRVI 14.21% ) announced that the USPTO issued a notice of allowance for nalbuphine ER's method of treatment of chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

  • Volaris Aviation ( VLRS 9.57% ) reports February 2023 traffic results; capacity increased by 20.4% yr/yr and RPMs increased by 21.2%

  • Walt Disney ( DIS 2.67% ) halts production of two Star Wars titles, according to Variety

  • WeWork ( WE 13.94% ) in talks to restructure over $3 bln in outstanding debt, according to the New York Times

M&A:

  • Diversey Holdings ( DSEY 0.37% ) to be acquired by Solenis for $4.6 bln, or $8.40/share

  • Kimball ( KBAL 0.32% ): HNI Corporation (HNI) to acquire Kimball International in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $485 mln

  • Marathon Petroleum ( MPC 0.13% ) announced the acquisition of a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy from Cresta Fund Management for $50 mln

Syndicate:

  • AerCap ( AER 1.55% ) files for 111,500,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholder

  • AerSale ( ASLE 2.80% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Affirm ( AFRM 8.31% ) entered into an additional privately negotiated transaction with a holder of its outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

  • Banc of California ( BANC 2.01% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY 8.94% ) says it received additional proceeds from the previously announced equity offering

  • BridgeBio Pharma ( BBIO 8.88% ) prices offering of 8,823,530 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $17.00 per share

  • Burlington Stores ( BURL 1.01% ) entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with holders of $110.3 mln 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025

  • Citigroup ( C 0.53% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 2.59% ) awarded approximately $30 mln contract by the City of Lancaster, CA

  • Permian Resources ( PR 2.01% ) prices secondary offering of 27.5 mln shares of common stock at $11.00 per share

  • Portillo's ( PTLO 1.29% ) prices offering of 8.0 mln shares of common stock at $21.05 per share

  • Verona Pharma ( VRNA 3.22% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Shoals Technologies ( SHLS 5.86% ) prices secondary offering of 24,501,650 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at $24.70 per share

  • Southwest Gas ( SWX 0.59% ) commences an underwritten public offering of $215 mln in shares of its common stock

IPOs:

  • Softbank ( SFTBY ): Ziroom considering Hong Kong IPO to raise about $1 bln as soon as this year, according to Bloomberg

  • Expected to Price:

  • Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI): The provider of frac sand and logistics services in the Permian Basis is expected to price its 18.0 M share IPO between $20-$23.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • MESO +13.9%, MAXN +13.2%, ZYME +12.4%, ARLO +12.3%, WE +7.9%, CRWD +6.8%, DBVT +6.6%, WTI +4.6%, COCO +4.4%, OXY +3%, BASE +2.6%, LFST +2.1%, VRNA +1.9%, RIVN +1.7%, VLRS +1.1%, PBA +0.9%, CASY +0.9%


  • Gapping down:

  • SOUN -10.5%, SHLS -8.4%, SFIX -6.8%, YEXT -5.9%, MBC -5.8%, PTLO -5%, BANC -4.9%, ASLE -4.8%, AGTI -4.3%, PR -3.3%, SWX -3.2%, IMXI -3.1%, MODN -2.2%, ACI -2%, CDTX -1.2%, AER -1%, SAM -0.9%, GSAT -0.8%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • AGNC Investment (AGNC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $12.50

  • Atlantica Yield (AY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $32

  • CMS Energy (CMS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital; tgt $203

  • Sea Limited (SE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at UOB Kay Hian; tgt $94.34


  • Downgrades:

  • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12.50

  • Cara Therapeutics (CARA) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $6

  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $78

  • Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

  • TDCX (TDCX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC; tgt $13

  • Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; tgt raised to $210

  • Zscaler (ZS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities; tgt $130


  • Others:

  • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $263

  • Bowlero (BOWL) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $22

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $214

  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $120

  • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair

  • Piedmont Lithium (PLL) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $140

  • Sabre (SABR) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein; tgt $4

  • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $87

  • Solid Power (SLDP) resumed with a Buy at Needham; tgt $5


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -5.7%)

  • 08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus 195K; Prior 106K)

  • 08:30 ET: Trade Balance for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus -$69.0B; Prior -$67.4B)

  • 10:00 ET: JOLTS - Job Openings for Jan (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 11.012M)

  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Mar 4 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 1.17M)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book for Mar


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Mar 6)

  • Morning: AZUL CIEN RIDE

  • Afternoon: AVAV CVGW DOMO GWRE NTNX TCOM WW


  • Tuesday (Mar 7)

  • Morning: MASS DKS DOLE SWIM SE MCRB SQSP THO

  • Afternoon: AGTI ARLO CASY BASE CRCT CRWD SFIX WTI YEXT


  • Wednesday (Mar 8)

  • Morning: ABM BF.B CPB IMXI KFY LTH LFST REVG COCO UNFI VERX VRDN

  • Afternoon: ASAN ESTE EOLS MDB NDLS ONL SMRT SOVO


  • Thursday (Mar 9)

  • Morning: BJ GCO HLLY JD PSFE TTC

  • Afternoon: BIRD AOUT DOCU LOCO GPS HCP HRT AVO ORCL SWBI ULTA MTN WPM ZUMZ


  • Friday (Mar 10)

  • Morning: BKE GENI



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note, weighed down by hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Powell. Japan's Upper House will vote on the nominations to the Bank of Japan on Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe said that the central bank is getting closer to a point where a pause in rate hikes will be appropriate. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will travel to Washington after this weekend's trip to India.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's January Current Account deficit JPY1.977 trln (expected deficit of JPY818 bln; last deficit of JPY33 bln). January Leading Index -0.4% m/m (last -0.4%) and Coincident Indicator -3.0% m/m (last -0.2%). February Bank Lending 3.3% yr/yr (last 3.1%) and February Economy Watchers Current Index 52.0 (expected 49.1; last 48.5)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%

  • India's Sensex: +0.2%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.3%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 137.25

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.9721

  • USD/INR: UNCH at 81.95

Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the ECB will continue raising rates for "quite some time" after the March meeting while policymaker Visco said that he does not appreciate other members discussing a prolonged rise in rates. Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Jordan said that monetary policy remains too loose. Tiremaker Continental expects rising sales and margin improvement in 2023.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.3%). Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)

  • Germany's January Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected 2.0%; last -5.3%); -6.9% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -6.4%). January Industrial Production 3.5% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -2.4%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.2%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0540

  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.1842

  • USD/CHF: +0.1% to 0.9427


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