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05/07/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 165 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

The stock market is poised for a lower open. Geopolitical angst is back in play after reports indicated that the U.S. wants to restrict Chinese access to cloud computing. Also, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign entities will have to request permission to export gallium and germanium from China.

Concerns about global growth have been another limiting factor this morning. China's Caixin Services PMI returned to its lowest level since January, but remained in expansionary territory at 53.9. Services PMI readings from Germany, U.K., France, Italy, and Spain decelerated from their May levels, but only France's reading fell into contraction.

Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: May Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.4%)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC Minutes from the June 13-14 meeting

In corporate news:

  • Netflix (NFLX 444.72, +3.28, +0.7%): upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs

  • UPS 2.52% (UPS 179.00, -4.77, -2.6%): Teamsters union tweets "Around 4AM, UPS walked away from the bargaining table after presenting an unacceptable offer to the Teamsters that did not address members' needs. The UPS Teamsters Nat'l Negotiating Committee unanimously rejected the package

  • Amazon.com (AMZN 129.72, -0.50, -0.4%) and Microsoft (MSFT 335.53, -2.46, -0.7%): US wants to restrict Chinese access to cloud computing, according to the WSJ

  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN 20.85, +1.27, +6.5%): Amazon (AMZN) rolls out first electric delivery vans from Rivian in Europe

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%, India's Sensex: -0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June Caixin Services PMI 53.9 (expected 56.2; last 57.1)

  • Hong Kong's June Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expected 51.5; last 50.6)

  • India's June Nikkei Services PMI 58.5 (expected 60.2; last 61.2)

  • Singapore's May Retail Sales -0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.5%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 4.0%; last 3.7%)

  • Australia's June Services PMI 50.3 (expected 50.7; last 52.1). May Retail Sales 0.7% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%). June AIG Manufacturing Index -19.8 (last -5.1) and June AIG Construction Index 10.6 (last -6.6)

  • New Zealand's GDT Price Index -3.3% (expected -1.0%; last 0.0%)


  • In news:

  • China's Caixin Services PMI returned to its lowest level since January, though at 53.9, it remained in expansionary territory.

  • China's Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign entities will have to request permission to export gallium and germanium from China.

  • Japan's Fast Retailing reported disappointing sales for June. Japan's Labor Confederation noted that the average wage increase in 2023 was the largest in 30 years.

  • There was growing speculation that Australia's Secretary of the Department of Finance Wilkinson will replace Governor Lowe at the helm of the Reserve Bank of Australia.



  • Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%, Germany's DAX: -0.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's May PPI -1.9% m/m (expected -1.8%; last -3.2%); -1.5% yr/yr (expected -1.3%; last 0.9%). June Services PMI 52.0 (expected 52.4; last 55.1)

  • Germany's June Services PMI 54.1, as expected (last 57.2)

  • U.K.'s June Services PMI 53.7, as expected (last 55.2)

  • France's May Industrial Production 1.2% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.8%). June Services PMI 48.0, as expected (last 52.5)

  • Italy's June Services PMI 52.2 (expected 53.0; last 54.0)

  • Spain's May Industrial Production -0.1% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last -1.0%). June Services PMI 53.4 (expected 55.5; last 56.7)


  • In news:

  • Services PMI readings from Germany, U.K., France, Italy, and Spain decelerated from their May levels, but only France's reading fell into contraction.

  • Germany's Economy Minister Habeck warned that it would be a problem for Germany if China extended its rare earth export restrictions to include lithium.

  • The Bank of England is reportedly looking at forcing more international banks to establish subsidiaries in the U.K. French Finance Minister Le Maire acknowledged that several food producers are not abiding by their pledge to lower prices.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -22 @ 4,470

  • DJIA Futures: -165 @ 34,472

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -89 @ 15,276

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.6%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng -1.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.46 @ 71.25

  • Nat Gas +0.065 @ 2.767

  • Gold +5.30 @ 1934.80

  • Silver -0.067 @ 23.045

  • Copper -0.0510 @ 3.7430


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Light & Wonder ( LNW 0.04% ) reaffirms outlook

  • Niu Technologies ( NIU 0.12% ) reports Q2 sales volumes increased 1.5% yr/yr

  • TETRA Tech ( TTI 0.59% ) sees Q2 revs at high of prior guidance

News:

  • US wants to restrict Chinese access to cloud computing, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • China's Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign entities will have to request permission to export gallium and germanium from China

  • Federal judge limits Biden administration's contact with social media sites amid freedom of speech concerns, according to New York Times

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will try to ease China tensions with visit this week, according to New York Times

  • Secret Service found cocaine in the West Wing of the White House, according to Washington Post

  • Japan's Labor Confederation noted that the average wage increase in 2023 was the largest in 30 years

  • China's Caixin Services PMI returned to its lowest level since January, though at 53.9, it remained in expansionary territory

  • Services PMI readings from Germany, U.K., France, Italy, and Spain decelerated from their May levels, but only France's reading fell into contraction

  • Bud Light ( BUD 0.95% ) sales haven't improved leading up to July 4, according to Newsweek

  • Dexcom ( DXCM 0.02% ) reports that Dexcom G7 receives Health Canada approval

  • Digital World Acquisition Corp ( DWAC 0.04% ) disclosed agreement in principle with the staff of the SEC's Division of Enforcement

  • Extra Space Storage ( EXR 1.05% ) announces dividend of $1.01 per share

  • Exxon Mobil ( XOM 0.20% ) is hiring traders and support staff for its new trading division, but below average performance bonuses are making it difficult to attract talent, according to Bloomberg

  • Life Storage ( LSI 1.18% ) announces dividend of $0.90 per share

  • Light & Wonder ( LNW 0.04% ) CFO to step down; Oliver Chow to serve as Interim CFO

  • Meta ( META 0.03% ) plans to release microblogging application on Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • PHINIA ( PHIN 0.00% ) completes separation from BorgWarner (BWA), starts trading on New York Stock Exchange

  • Rivian Automotive ( RIVN 0.15% ): Amazon (AMZN) rolls out first electric delivery vans from Rivian in Europe

  • TSMC ( TSM 2.21% ) seeing strong AI chip demand, according to Digitimes

  • UPS ( UPS 2.52% ): Teamsters union tweets "Around 4AM, UPS walked away from the bargaining table after presenting an unacceptable offer to the Teamsters that did not address members' needs. The UPS Teamsters Nat'l Negotiating Committee unanimously rejected the package"

  • Vertex Pharma ( VRTX 0.01% ) receives approval for ORKAMBI by European Commission

  • Volkswagen AG ( VWAGY ) brand invests one billion euros for growth in South America

M&A:

  • Absolute Software ( ABST 0.04% ) obtains final order for plan of arrangement from the Supreme Court of British Columbia

  • American Equity Investment Life ( AEL 0.69% ): Brookfield Reinsurance to acquire AEL for $55.00 per share in $4.3 billion cash-and-stock transaction

  • ATS Corp ( ATS 0.69% ) has acquired Yazzoom BV, Belgium-based provider of AI and machine learning-based tools for industrial production; financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed

  • Callon Petroleum ( CPE 0.23% ) closes Delaware Basin acquisition and Eagle Ford divestiture

  • Duke Energy ( DUK 1.09% ) to sell commercial distributed generation business to ArcLight for $364 million

  • LyondellBasell ( LYB 0.85% ) completes acquisition of Mepol Group

  • Patterson-UTI ( PTEN 0.00% )announces agreement to acquire global drill bit company, Ulterra

Syndicate:

  • Dave & Buster's ( PLAY 1.30% ) announces amendment to credit agreement, reduces spread 1.25% and further enhances liquidity position with upsize of term loan B to $900 million on strong demand

IPOs:

  • There are no IPOs scheduled at this time

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • RIVN +5.9%, DWAC +5.8%, NIU +4.8%, CCCC +3.9%, TTI +3.8%, RIG +3.6%, AXTI +3.1%, EVO +3.1%, DHT +2.6%, AEL +2.4%, INCY +1.5%, USO +1%


  • Gapping down:

  • NKLA -4.4%, UPS -2.3%, LNW -1.1%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Advanced Micro (AMD) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland Capital; tgt raised to $150

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $102

  • Coherent (COHR) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt raised to $45

  • Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $400

  • Nucor (NUE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $191

  • Pearson Plc (PSO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

  • Pegasystems (PEGA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt raised to $65

  • Transocean (RIG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $9.50


  • Downgrades:

  • Braskem SA (BAK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $11

  • aTyr Pharma (LIFE) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

  • Coinbase Global (COIN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $60

  • Conagra (CAG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $38

  • Ecolab (ECL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Northcoast

  • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $52

  • Lumentum (LITE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $42

  • Ryerson (RYI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $45

  • SPX Corp (SPXC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt raised to $90

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $102

  • U.S. Steel (X) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $26

  • VICI Properties (VICI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $34

  • Wabash Natl (WNC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James


  • Others:

  • 10x Genomics (TXG) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $65

  • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $15

  • Akoya Biosciences (AKYA) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $18

  • Alarm.com (ALRM) assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $55

  • Axon (AXON) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $236

  • Catalent (CTLT) assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $45

  • Clear Secure (YOU) assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $30

  • Flex (FLEX) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $30

  • Garmin (GRMN) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $115

  • Hertz Global (HTZ) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $24

  • Jabil (JBL) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $110

  • Illumina (ILMN) assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $235

  • Invitae (NVTA) assumed with an Underweight at JP Morgan

  • Logitech Int'l SA (LOGI) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $70

  • Materion (MTRN) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $135

  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $320

  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) assumed with an Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt $18

  • NanoString Technologies (NSTG) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $18

  • Pacific Biosciences (PACB) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $13

  • Repligen (RGEN) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $220

  • Resideo (REZI) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $22

  • Seer (SEER) assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $10

  • Snap One (SNPO) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $13

  • SOPHiA GENETICS SA (SOPH) assumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $10

  • OTHERS GO HERE


Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: May Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; Prior 0.4%)

  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes for June 13-14 meeting

Earnings:

  • Monday (July 3)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Tuesday (July 4)

  • Morning: Closed for holiday

  • Afternoon: Closed for holiday


  • Wednesday (July 5)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: None


  • Thursday (July 6)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: LEVI


  • Friday (Jul 7)

  • Morning: None

  • Afternoon: AZZ


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng -1.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. China's Caixin Services PMI returned to its lowest level since January, though at 53.9, it remained in expansionary territory. China's Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign entities will have to request permission to export gallium and germanium from China. Japan's Fast Retailing reported disappointing sales for June. Japan's Labor Confederation noted that the average wage increase in 2023 was the largest in 30 years. There was growing speculation that Australia's Secretary of the Department of Finance Wilkinson will replace Governor Lowe at the helm of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

  • In economic data:

  • China's June Caixin Services PMI 53.9 (expected 56.2; last 57.1)

  • Hong Kong's June Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expected 51.5; last 50.6)

  • India's June Nikkei Services PMI 58.5 (expected 60.2; last 61.2)

  • Singapore's May Retail Sales -0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.5%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 4.0%; last 3.7%)

  • Australia's June Services PMI 50.3 (expected 50.7; last 52.1). May Retail Sales 0.7% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%). June AIG Manufacturing Index -19.8 (last -5.1) and June AIG Construction Index 10.6 (last -6.6)

  • New Zealand's GDT Price Index -3.3% (expected -1.0%; last 0.0%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%

  • India's Sensex: -0.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.1% to 144.33

  • USD/CNH: +0.4% to 7.2556

  • USD/INR: +0.4% to 82.21

Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.6%, CAC -0.6%

Major European indices trade in the red. Services PMI readings from Germany, U.K., France, Italy, and Spain decelerated from their May levels, but only France's reading fell into contraction. Germany's Economy Minister Habeck warned that it would be a problem for Germany if China extended its rare earth export restrictions to include lithium. The Bank of England is reportedly looking at forcing more international banks to establish subsidiaries in the U.K. French Finance Minister Le Maire acknowledged that several food producers are not abiding by their pledge to lower prices.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's May PPI -1.9% m/m (expected -1.8%; last -3.2%); -1.5% yr/yr (expected -1.3%; last 0.9%). June Services PMI 52.0 (expected 52.4; last 55.1)

  • Germany's June Services PMI 54.1, as expected (last 57.2)

  • U.K.'s June Services PMI 53.7, as expected (last 55.2)

  • France's May Industrial Production 1.2% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.8%). June Services PMI 48.0, as expected (last 52.5)

  • Italy's June Services PMI 52.2 (expected 53.0; last 54.0)

  • Spain's May Industrial Production -0.1% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last -1.0%). June Services PMI 53.4 (expected 55.5; last 56.7)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%

  • Germany's DAX: -0.5%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.6%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0880

  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2700

  • USD/CHF: +0.2% to 0.8984


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