top of page
Search

05/04/23 Briefing

The S&P 500 futures are down 4 point and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Equity futures trade down with only modest losses, indicative of a market in consolidation mode after making a big move up over short period of time. A few mega cap stocks sport decent gains this morning, boosting the broader market.

Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC voter) said rates will need to go higher than 5%, according to CNBC. In related central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 3.83% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.35%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.70.

WTI crude oil futures are unchanged at $80.72/bbl and natural gas futures are up 0.3% to $2.11/mmbtu.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.1% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinancing applications declining 5.0%.

Other data releases today include:

  • 8:15 ET: March ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 205,000; prior 242,000)

  • 8:30 ET: February Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$69.0 bln; prior -$68.3 bln)

  • 9:45 ET: Final March IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 53.8)

  • 10:00 ET: March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (prior 54.5%; prior 55.1%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -7.49 mln)

In corporate news:

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 163.03, +4.54, +2.9%): subsidiary LTL Management re-files for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to resolve claims from cosmetic talc litigation; to pay $8.9 bln

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 497.68, +4.43, +0.9%): upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

  • Walmart (WMT 146.80, -0.43, -0.3%): affirms FY24 EPS, net sales growth, comp growth guidance; reaffirms Q1 EPS guidance; affirms commitment to financial framework of 4% sales growth and 4%+ operating income growth over the next 3-5 years

  • First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA 976.00, +19.60, +2.1%): upgraded to Buy from Sell at UBS

  • Zions Bancorp (ZION 28.61, +0.90, +3.3%): upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird

  • FedEx (FDX 233.00, +6.51, +2.9%): announces consolidation of operating companies; sees $4 bln in permanent cost reductions; raises annual dividend by 10%

  • Conagra (CAG 38.10, +0.52, +1.4%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for Ching Ming Festival. Japan's Nikkei: -1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED, China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED, India's Sensex: +1.0%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's March Services PMI 55.0 (expected 54.2; last 54.2)

  • India's March Nikkei Services PMI 57.8 (expected 58.3; last 59.3)

  • Singapore's February Retail Sales 3.9% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -9.5%); 12.7% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last -0.8%)

  • Australia's March Services PMI 48.6 (expected 48.2; last 50.7). March AIG Construction Index -5.8 (expected -8.0; last -5.0) and AIG Manufacturing Index 5.6 (expected -4.0; last -6.4)


  • In news:

  • China's Commerce Ministry warned that decisive action will be taken if Japan obstructs cooperation in the chip industry.

  • Chinese regulators have slowed merger reviews for acquisitions proposed by U.S. companies, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  • Australia's Services PMI dipped back into contraction in the final reading for March.

  • Taiwan's President Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker McCarthy this afternoon.

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase.



  • Major European indices trade just below their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (+0.6%) outperforms. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: -0.3%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's March Services PMI 55.0 (expected 55.6; last 52.7)

  • Germany's February Factory Orders 4.8% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%). March Services PMI 53.7 (expected 53.9; last 50.9)

  • U.K.'s March Services PMI 52.9 (expected 52.8; last 53.5)

  • France's February Industrial Production 1.2% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.4%) and March Services PMI 53.9 (expected 55.5; last 53.1)

  • Italy's Q4 Public Deficit 5.6% (expected 2.3%; last 9.2%). March Services PMI 55.7 (expected 53.2; last 51.6). February Retail Sales -0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 1.7%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 6.0%)

  • Spain's February Industrial Production -0.4% yr/yr (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%) and March Services PMI 59.4 (expected 57.5; last 56.7). March Consumer Confidence 67.4 (last 71.6)


  • In news:

  • March Services PMI readings from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain improved from their final February levels, though the improvement in Germany and France was not as large as expected.

  • The head of the French Democratic Confederation of Labour said that protests will continue, and that pension reform must be withdrawn.

  • President Biden will travel to Ireland and Northern Ireland next week.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -3 @ 4,097

  • DJIA Futures: -17 @ 33,385

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +1 @ 13,101

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC -0.1%

  • Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite CLOSED

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.03 @ 80.79

  • Nat Gas +0.006 @ 2.112

  • Gold +1.70 @ 2039.90

  • Silver -0.186 @ 24.915

  • Copper -0.0040 @ 3.967


Earnings/Guidance:

  • Conagra ( CAG 0.37% ) beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

  • Delek US Holdings ( DK 3.23% ) provides Q1 Outlook in investor presentation

  • dLocal Limited ( DLO 2.48% ) misses on top and bottom lines; sees FY23 revs above consensus

  • Exxon Mobil ( XOM 0.96% ) discloses that it expects change in unsettled derivatives (mark-to-market) to negatively impact Q1 earnings by $1.8-2.2 bln; says change in liquid prices will negatively impact earnings by $0.6-1.0 bln

  • Kura Sushi ( KRUS 1.29% ) reports Q2 (Feb) results, beats on revs, comps of +17.4%; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Niu Technologies ( NIU 4.36% ) releases sales volumes for 1Q23; total units fell 42.3% yr/yr to 94,407; China units fell 45.3%, International units fell 12.2%

  • Resources Connection ( RGP 2.75% ) beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Seadrill Ltd ( SDRL 7.83% ) reports Q4 results; misses on revs

  • Simply Good Foods ( SMPL 1.98% ) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line

  • SMART Global ( SGH 1.55% ) beats by $0.16, misses on revs; guides MayQ EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • UMH Properties ( UMH 0.94% ) reports Q1 updates

  • Walmart ( WMT 0.98% ) affirms FY24 EPS, net sales growth, comp growth guidance; reaffirms Q1 EPS guidance; affirms commitment to financial framework of 4% sales growth and 4%+ operating income growth over the next 3-5 years

  • Western Alliance Bancorp ( WAL 3.76% ) provides Q1 financial update

News:

  • Progressive Brandon Johnson wins Chicago Mayor race. He plans $4 per employee tax on corporations and new taxes on hotels, airlines, and securities trading, according to Bloomberg

  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (not a voting FOMC member) says rates will need to go higher than 5%, according to Reuters

  • Amazon ( AMZN 1.50% ) laying off over 100 employees in its video games division, according to CNBC

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.49% ) reports Lynparza and Imfinzi combination improved progression-free survival in newly diagnosed patients with advanced ovarian cancer

  • Aurinia Pharma ( AUPH 1.65% ) announces promising topline data from renal biopsy sub-study of the aurora trial

  • Barings BDC ( BBDC 1.39% ) CFO Jonathan Landsberg stepped down as of April 4; Elizabeth Murray appointed as successor, effective immediately

  • BELLUS Health ( BLU 0.86% ) Announces Positive Results from its Phase 1 Bioavailability Equivalence Study Evaluating Once-Daily Extended-Release Formulation of Camlipixant in Comparison to Twice-Daily Immediate Release Formulation

  • Compass Minerals ( CMP 1.63% ) reducing its workforce by approximately 16%; expects this step alongside cost structure actions to benefit adjusted EBITDA by $17-18 mln per year

  • Eagle Pharma ( EGRX 0.67% ) reaches settlement agreement with Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY) related to BENDEKA

  • Exelixis ( EXEL 0.36% ): Farallon Capital Management planning proxy battle with EXEL, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Exxon ( XOM 0.96% ) ends Brazil oil drilling after it did not find any oil, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • FedEx ( FDX 1.03% ) announces consolidation of operating companies; sees $4 bln in permanent cost reductions, dividend boost

  • Fox Factory Holding ( FOXF 0.40% ) announced that Scott R. Humphrey, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, will be leaving the Company on April 14, 2023

  • Glatfelter Co ( GLT 3.87% ) announced that Mr. Boris Illetschko has been appointed to the role of Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Google ( GOOG 0.20% ) artificial intelligence computer is faster than Nvidia (NVDA) A100 chip, according to Reuters

  • Granite Constr ( GVA 4.13% ) awarded an ~$126 mln contract to support the relocation of United States Marines

  • Gritstone bio ( GRTS 8.33% ) Announces Presentations Evaluating Self-amplifying mRNA (samRNA) Against SARS-CoV-2 at ECCMID 2023

  • Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico ( PAC 0.49% ) reports March traffic increased 15.8% yr/yr

  • Health Catalyst ( HCAT 5.31% ) announces multi-year partnership with Contexture, a health information exchange firm

  • HealthEquity ( HQY 2.49% ) announces a strategic collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT) to modernize healthcare benefit administration through Microsoft Azure

  • Hut 8 Mining ( HUT 0.56% ) reports 131 Bitcoin mined in March

  • IBEX Ltd. ( IBEX 1.77% ) CFO Karl Gabel to retire, effective June 30; initiates search for new CFO

  • Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ 1.05% ) subsidiary LTL Management re-files for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to resolve claims from cosmetic talc litigation; to pay $8.9 bln

  • Leonardo DRS ( DRS 3.65% ) awarded contracts valued at over $1.0 bln, when fully funded, to support U.S. Navy's Columbia-class submarine program

  • loanDepot ( LDI 0.67% ) Announces Settlement and Cooperation Agreement with Anthony Hsieh

  • McEwen Mining ( MUX 3.04% ) announces new assay results

  • Merck ( MRK 0.04% ): Proxygen announces collaboration and license agreement with MSD for the discovery and development of novel molecular glue degraders

  • Meta Platforms ( META 0.77% ): Italy probe started for abuse of economic dependence by Meta towards SIAE

  • Microsoft ( MSFT 0.02% ): UK Ofcom proposes to refer UK cloud market for investigation

  • Motorola Solutions ( MSI 0.16% ): UK CMA's decision places limit on how much Motorola can charge the emergency services to use the Airwave Network

  • NGM Biopharmaceuticals ( NGM 4.58% ) approves restructuring; reducing workforce by approximately 33%

  • Palantir Technologies ( PLTR 0.36% ) and Microsoft (MSFT) expand cloud partnership to public sector

  • Palomar Holdings ( PLMR 2.88% ) secures approximately $187.5 million of incremental excess of loss limit to support and provide incremental limit for its earthquake line of business

  • Pitney Bowes ( PBI 0.00% ): Hestia Capital Management calls for the company to replace its CEO and reset its finances, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Rambus ( RMBS 3.61% ) extends patent license agreement with SK hynix for an additional ten years, effective July 1, 2024

  • Sun Country Airlines ( SNCY 0.80% ) acquires five 737-900ERs that will expand its passenger fleet in late 2024 and 2025

  • Tradeweb Markets ( TW 1.17% ) reports total trading volume for March 2023 of $34.7 trln

  • W&T Offshore ( WTI 0.55% ) apparent high bidder on two Gulf of Mexico Blocks in Lease Sale 259

M&A:

  • Assured Guaranty's ( AGO 0.77% ) Asset Management Business to combine with Sound Point Capital Management

  • Credit Suisse ( CS 1.11% ) integration with UBS (UBS) will take four years, according to Bloomberg

  • Ginkgo Bioworks ( DNA 1.57% ) announced the acquisition of StrideBio's adeno-associated virus capsid discovery and engineering platform assets with a secondary close scheduled upon the transfer of certain additional in-license agreements to Ginkgo

Syndicate:

  • Bank of America ( BAC 2.13% ) announces redemption of 2.0 billion of floating rate senior notes, due april 25, 2024

  • Cellectis ( CLLS 1.99% ) enters into warrant agreement and finalized the related ancillary documents required under the credit facility with the European Investment Bank for up to 40 million

  • Crestwood Equity Partners ( CEQP 0.58% ) files 11,275,546 common units representing limited partner interests

  • Ribbon Communications ( RBBN 2.10% ) files $250 mln mixed shelf securities offering

  • Safehold ( SAFE 2.10% ) files mixed shelf securities offering

  • Wallbox ( WBX 12.86% ) files 1,007,894 common stock offering by selling shareholder

IPOs:

  • Expected to Price:

  • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

  • KRUS +6.4%, WBX +6.2%, DRS +4.5%, JNJ +3%, PBI +2.9%, BBDC +2.8%, GRTS +2.8%, LDI +1.3%, GVA +1%, RGP +0.5%


  • Gapping down:

  • DLO -10.6%, RBBN -6.7%, WAL -3.6%, SDRL -2.7%, SGH -2.1%, NIU -1.9%, HCAT -1.4%, NE -0.7%, MSI -0.7%, WMT -0.6%, HQY -0.5%, XOM -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

  • Accenture (ACN) upgraded to Buy from Hold and added to Stock Focus List and Equity Income Buy List at Edward Jones

  • Livent (LTHM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $27

  • Sallie Mae (SLM) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $15

  • Sealed Air (SEE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt $59


  • Downgrades:

  • Albemarle (ALB) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $195


  • Others:

  • SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) initiated with a Buy at Janney; tgt $351


  • Econ Data:

  • 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Apr 1 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 2.9%)

  • 08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 205K; Prior 242K)

  • 08:30 ET: Trade Balance for Feb (Briefing.com Consensus -$69.0B; Prior -$68.3B)

  • 09:45 ET: IHS Markit Services PMI - Final for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 53.8)

  • 10:00 ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Mar (Briefing.com Consensus 54.5%; Prior 55.1%)

  • 10;30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Apr 1 (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior -7.49M)


  • Earnings:

  • Monday (Apr 3)

  • Morning: SAIC


  • Tuesday (Apr 4)

  • Morning: AYI LNN MSM

  • Afternoon: DLO RGP SGH


  • Wednesday (Apr 5)

  • Morning: CAG SCHN SMPL

  • Afternoon: SLP


  • Thursday (Apr 6)

  • Morning: STZ LW RPM

  • Afternoon: LEVI WDFC



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite CLOSED

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for Ching Ming Festival. China's Commerce Ministry warned that decisive action will be taken if Japan obstructs cooperation in the chip industry. Chinese regulators have slowed merger reviews for acquisitions proposed by U.S. companies, according to the Wall Street Journal. Australia's Services PMI dipped back into contraction in the final reading for March. Taiwan's President Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker McCarthy this afternoon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase.

  • In economic data:

  • Japan's March Services PMI 55.0 (expected 54.2; last 54.2)

  • India's March Nikkei Services PMI 57.8 (expected 58.3; last 59.3)

  • Singapore's February Retail Sales 3.9% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -9.5%); 12.7% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last -0.8%)

  • Australia's March Services PMI 48.6 (expected 48.2; last 50.7). March AIG Construction Index -5.8 (expected -8.0; last -5.0) and AIG Manufacturing Index 5.6 (expected -4.0; last -6.4)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -1.7%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED

  • China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED

  • India's Sensex: +1.0%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 131.71

  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.8823

  • USD/INR: -0.1% to 81.99

Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC -0.1%

Major European indices trade just below their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (+0.6%) outperforms. March Services PMI readings from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain improved from their final February levels, though the improvement in Germany and France was not as large as expected. The head of the French Democratic Confederation of Labour said that protests will continue, and that pension reform must be withdrawn. President Biden will travel to Ireland and Northern Ireland next week.

  • In economic data:

  • Eurozone's March Services PMI 55.0 (expected 55.6; last 52.7)

  • Germany's February Factory Orders 4.8% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%). March Services PMI 53.7 (expected 53.9; last 50.9)

  • U.K.'s March Services PMI 52.9 (expected 52.8; last 53.5)

  • France's February Industrial Production 1.2% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.4%) and March Services PMI 53.9 (expected 55.5; last 53.1)

  • Italy's Q4 Public Deficit 5.6% (expected 2.3%; last 9.2%). March Services PMI 55.7 (expected 53.2; last 51.6). February Retail Sales -0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 1.7%); 5.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 6.0%)

  • Spain's February Industrial Production -0.4% yr/yr (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%) and March Services PMI 59.4 (expected 57.5; last 56.7). March Consumer Confidence 67.4 (last 71.6)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: -0.3%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.1%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.0936

  • GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.2462

  • USD/CHF: UNCH at 0.9053


0 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All
bottom of page