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04/12/23 Briefing



The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 78 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Stock futures indicate a lower open, cooling off following big gains of late.

Treasury yields are moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.60% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.25%.

WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $73.45/bbl.

Today's economic data is limited to October Factory Orders at 10:00 ET.

In other news, a US destroyer and several commercial ships were attacked in the Red Sea, according to The Wall Street Journal.

In corporate news:

  • Alaska Air (ALK 35.05, -4.68, -11.8%): Hawaiian Holdings to be acquired by Alaska Air for $18.00 per share

  • Spotify (SPOT 183.29, +2.60, +1.4%): to reduce its total headcount by approximately 17% across the company

  • Coinbase (COIN 143.80 +10.08, +7.5%): rising alongside cryptocurrency prices

  • Uber (UBER 60.14, +2.79, +4.9%): to join the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, December 18

  • lululemon (LULU 457.85, -8.76, -1.9%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo

  • Carvana (CVNA 37.20, +2.00, +5.7%): upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan

  • General Motors (GM 32.82, +0.46, +1.4%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: +2.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%.

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's November Monetary Base 9.1% yr/yr (expected 8.9%; last 9.5%)

      • Australia's November MI Inflation Gauge 0.3% m/m (last -0.1%) and November job ads -4.6% m/m (last -3.4%). Q3 Business Inventories 1.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.6%; last -1.3%) and Q3 Company Gross Operating Profits -1.3% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last -12.1%). October Home Loans 5.6% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -0.1%) and October Retail Sales -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.9%)

      • New Zealand's Q3 Terms of Trade Index -0.6% qtr/qtr (expected -2.1%; last 0.3%)


  • In news:

    • Chinese officials have postponed this year's third plenum, making for the first delay to this meeting in more than thirty years.

    • Chinese health officials are advising against large gatherings amid ongoing reports about cases of acute respiratory disease.

    • Meanwhile, five U.S. Republican Senators have urged the president to implement a ban on travel to China.

    • New Zealand is expected to announce tax cuts during the economic and fiscal update scheduled for December 20.



  • Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence -16.8 (expected -15.0; last -18.6)

      • Germany's October trade surplus EUR17.8 bln (expected surplus of EUR17.1 bln; last surplus of EUR16.7 bln). October Imports -1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -1.9%) and Exports -0.2% m/m (expected 1.1%; last -2.5%)

      • Spain's November Unemployment Change -24,600 (expected 28,100; last 36,900)

      • Swiss November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.7%)


  • In news:

    • European Central Bank policymakers Nagel and De Guindos repeated that it is too early to declare victory over inflation.

    • Greece regained its investment grade rating after Fitch upgraded the country's rating to BBB- from BB+ with a Stable outlook.

    • Separately, Fitch affirmed France's AA rating with a Negative outlook.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures -14 @ 4,580

  • DJIA Futures: -78 @ 36,168

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -66 @ 15,932

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.3%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.42 @ 73.65

  • Nat Gas -0.078 @ 2.736

  • Gold -1.50 @ 2088.20

  • Silver -0.295 @ 25.562

  • Copper -0.0738 @ 3.8577

Earnings/Guidance:

  • Argo Blockchain Plc ( ARBK 0.00% ) reported November mining revenue amounted to $5.30 million, an increase of 25% compared to the prior month

  • HF Sinclair ( DINO 3.54% ) expects 2024 consolidated capital and turnaround cash spending guidance, inclusive of its wholly owned subsidiary Holly Energy Partners, of $875 mln total capital

  • Science Applications ( SAIC 2.14% ) beats by $0.58, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Sunoco LP ( SUN 1.48% ) issues guidance in December 2023 Investor Presentation; sees adjusted EBITDA of $975 mln to $1.0 bln

  • The Cigna Group ( CI 2.34% ) reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

News:

  • A US destroyer and several commercial ships were attacked in the Red Sea, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Israel increased attacks on southern Gaza, according to the Wall Street Journal

  • Supreme Court will hear case this week that could make wealth taxes unconstitutional, according to Financial Times

  • Supreme Court will hear case on if Perdue Pharmaceuticals' bankruptcy protects it against civil lawsuits from opioid crisis. The case could have implications for other companies who use bankruptcy system to shield from lawsuits, according to the New York Times

  • China borrowers are defaulting in record numbers, according to Financial Times

  • Cryptocurrency execs say Bitcoin could reach 100K next year, CNBC

  • Shortage of air traffic controllers are leading to dangerous mistakes, according to the New York Times

  • White House leverages historic U.S. climate leadership at home and abroad to urge countries to accelerate global climate action at U.N. climate conference

  • 89bio ( ETNB 0.00% ) announces a successful end-of-Phase 2 Meeting with the U.S. FDA, supporting the advancement of pegozafermin into Phase 3 in NASH

  • Aflac ( AFL 0.12% ) and Trupanion (TRUP) comment on Renewed S-3 registration statement filed in accordance with 2020 Shareholder Agreement

  • Alterity Therapeutics ( ATHE 0.00% ) announced that promising new data on the effect of ATH434 in a Parkinson's disease primate model was presented at the Future of Parkinson's Disease Conference 2023

  • AstraZeneca ( AZN 0.00% ) aiming to partner with Absci Corporation (ABSI) to develop cancer drug, according to Financial Times

  • Biohaven ( BHVN 1.02% ) presents expanded EEG and safety data for BHV-7000 at the American Epilepsy Society annual meeting

  • Boeing ( BA 0.97% ): US Air Force has eliminated Boeing from its competition to develop a successor to the E-4B Nightwatch, according to Reuters

  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt ( BAM 2.94% ) and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) acknowledges result of the Origin Energy shareholder vote - short of the required 75% approval level required

  • Ceragon ( CRNT 0.00% ) announces that a request for arbitration against the Company and its subsidiary was submitted by a South American customer

  • CME Group ( CME 0.00% ) reports November market statistics

  • Eli Lilly ( LLY 1.18% ): Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) Now Approved by U.S. FDA for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma Who Have Received at Least Two Lines of Therapy, Including a BTK Inhibitor and a BCL-2 Inhibitor

  • EyePoint Pharmaceuticals ( EYPT 0.00% ) announced positive topline results of its Phase 2 DAVIO 2 trial of EYP-1901; Conference call to discuss the results to be held today

  • Geron ( GERN 0.00% ) Announces Publication in The Lancet of Results from the IMerge Phase 3 Clinical Trial Evaluating Imetelstat in Lower Risk MDS

  • Golden Heaven Group Holdings ( GDHG 0.00% ) announces strategic initiatives

  • GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. ( GOL 2.22% ) has mandated Seabury Capital to assist GOL in a broad review of its capital structure

  • HDFC Bank ( HDB 1.12% ) fined INR 10,000 by Reserve Bank of India

  • i-80 Gold ( IAUX 1.85% ) Expands High-Grade Mineralization in the Blackjack Zone at Ruby Hill

  • IDEAYA Biosciences ( IDYA 0.00% ) announces clinical study collaboration with Gilead Sciences (GILD) to evaluate Trodelvy and IDE397 combination

  • ING Groep ( ING 0.36% ) has been notified of the European Central Bank decision on the 2023 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process

  • Loma Negra ( LOMA 1.53% ) disclosed litigation update

  • Merus ( MRUS 0.00% ) Presents Interim Data on MCLA-129 at ESMO Asia Congress 2023

  • Meta Platforms ( META 0.00% ) announces new safety features for children online

  • MGM Resorts ( MGM 3.55% ): DCC Unions ratify agreement with MGM Grand Detroit, ending 47-day strike

  • MKS Instruments ( MKSI 0.00% ): Seth H. Bagshaw to retire as Chief Financial Officer of MKSI

  • Morningstar ( MORN 0.00% ) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.405/share from $0.375/share

  • National Storage Affiliates ( NSA 4.16% ) approves a new share repurchase program authorizing the repurchase of up to $275 mln

  • Nokia ( NOK 0.29% ): AT&T (T) might remove Nokia from its list of 5G equipment suppliers, according to industry analyst

  • Petrobras ( PBR 0.39% ) signs agreement to install CO2 capture and storage hub

  • PureCycle Technologies ( PCT 0.00% ) names Jeff Fieler as interim CFO; announces layoff of 22 workers

  • RedHill Biopharma ( RDHL 0.00% ) new, non-dilutive external funding of entire RHB-107 COVID-19 300-patient phase 2 study

  • Saia ( SAIA 0.00% ) provides LTL shipment and tonnage data for the first two months of the fourth quarter

  • SL Green Realty ( SLG 9.93% ) announces that its board of directors has established an annual ordinary dividend on SL Green's common stock of $3.00/share (prior dividend was $3.25/share)

  • Spotify ( SPOT 2.39% ) to reduce its total headcount by approximately 17% across the company

  • Standard Lithium ( SLI 2.24% ) provides update on phase 1a commercialization progress, announces engagement of citi for strategic financing and partnerships

  • State Street ( STT 1.51% ) to further consolidate operating model in India

  • Theseus Pharmaceuticals ( THRX 0.00% ) terminated the employment of Timothy P. Clackson, Ph.D. as President and Chief Executive Officer effective as of December 7 as part of a reduction in workforce

  • Toyota ( TM 1.56% ) halts some production in its Tianjin venture, according to Reuters

  • UBS ( UBS 1.52% ) aiming to expand in US markets, according to Reuters

  • VEON's ( VEON 0.00% ) Kyivstarwill partner with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to support Ukrainian businesses with the next generation of cloud and cloud infrastructure services

  • Virgin Galactic ( SPCE 4.93% ): Richard Branson has ruled out further investment in SPCE, according to Financial Times

  • Xenon Pharmaceuticals ( XENE 0.00% ) Provides Updates on Neurology Pipeline Programs at the Annual Meeting of the American Epilepsy Society

M&A:

  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt ( BAM 2.94% ): Origin Energy Limited shareholders do not approve acquisition by BAM led consortium

  • Generac ( GNRC 4.47% ) makes minority investment in Wallbox; announces commercial agreement

  • Hawaiian Holdings ( HA 0.00% ) to be acquired by Alaska Air (ALK) for $18.00 per share

  • LianBio ( LIAN 0.00% ) confirms is receives takeover proposal at $4.30/sh in cash

  • Manchester United ( MANU 0.72% ) and Sir Jim Ratcliffe could confirm stake sale next week, according to Sky News

  • Pennant Group ( PNTG 0.00% ) acquires Southwestern Palliative Care, an Arizona hospice provider

  • POINT Biopharma ( PNT 0.00% ): Lilly (LLY) extends tender offer to acquire POINT Biopharma to Dec 15, 2023 from Dec 1, 2023

  • ProPetro ( PUMP 0.00% ) acquires Par Five Energy Services creating a Permian cementing services company

  • reAlpha Tech Corp. ( AIRE 0.00% ) to acquire Naamche to develop next-generation AI solutions in real estate and diverse digital platforms

  • Roche Hldg ( RHHBY ) enters into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 bln

  • Sana Biotechnology ( SANA 0.00% ) publishes early clinical data showing that SC291, a CD19-directed Allogeneic CAR T Therapy, evades immune detection in presence of intact immune system

  • UFP Industries ( UFPI 0.00% ) purchases remaining ownership interests in two Mexican packaging affiliates

  • Vale S.A. ( VALE 2.47% ) concludes sale of its 40% stake in Mineraao Rio do Norte, marking the completion of Vale's major divestment program

Syndicate:

  • Atlas Lithium Corp. ( ATLX 0.00% ) entered into two securities purchase agreements dated November 29, 2023

  • Baker Hughes ( BKR 0.00% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Charles Schwab ( SCHW 3.00% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Corning ( GLW 1.23% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Eos Energy ( EOSE 0.00% ) files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • Evergy ( EVRG 0.00% ) announces proposed offering of convertible notes due 2027

  • F&G Annuities & Life ( FG 4.56% ) files for $1 bln mixed securities shelf offering

  • SharkNinja ( SN 4.28% ) announces launch of secondary offering of ordinary shares

  • Stryker ( SYK 0.49% ) files mixed securities shelf offering

  • Trupanion ( TRUP 0.00% ) files for 3,636,364 share common stock offering by selling shareholder Aflac

IPOs:

  • No IPOs expected to price.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • HA +177.4%, GERN +5.5%, APXI +5%, NSA +2.7%, SANA +2.5%, ATLX +2.5%, SPOT +1.3%, IDYA +1.2%, GDHG +1.2%, CI +1.2%


  • Gapping down:

    • ALK -10.7%, TRUP -8.8%, SN -4.1%, EOSE -3.4%, CLCO -2.5%, VALE -1.2%, BA -0.7%, SCHW -0.6%, BHVN -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Adobe (ADBE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at KGI Securities

    • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette

    • Carvana (CVNA) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $40

    • CNX Resources (CNX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $27

    • Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

    • CyberArk (CYBR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $250

    • East West Banc (EWBC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $76

    • Fluence (FLNC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM; tgt raised to $31

    • General Motors (GM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt raised to $42

    • Hawaiian Holdings (HA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $16


  • Downgrades:

    • Alaska Air (ALK) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James

    • Alaska Air (ALK) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $44

    • Alcon (ALC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $65

    • Allegion (ALLE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $119

    • Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

    • Antero Resources (AR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $28

    • Bayer AG (BAYRY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

    • Bilibili (BILI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt lowered to $13.20

    • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $31

    • Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

    • Herc Holdings (HRI) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets


  • Others:

    • Arrowhead (ARWR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $29

    • Banc of California (BANC) initiated with a Hold at Truist; tgt $14

    • ChargePoint (CHPT) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $2

    • Copart (CPRT) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $51

    • Ford Motor (F) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt $11.30

    • General Motors (GM) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $41.30

    • Glaukos (GKOS) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $65

    • Goodyear Tire (GT) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $16.80Hubbell (HUBB) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $325


Econ Data:

  • 10:00 ET: Factory Orders for Oct (Briefing.com Consensus -2.6%; Prior 2.8%)

Earnings:

  • Monday (Dec 4)

    • Morning: SAIC

    • Afternoon: GTLB


  • Tuesday (Nov 5)

    • Morning: AZO CNM CRMT DBI FERG GII SIG SJM

    • Afternoon: ASAN AVAV BOX MDB PLAY PHR S SFIX TOL YEXT


  • Wednesday (Dec 6)

    • Morning: BF.B CPB KFY LOVE OLLI THO UNFI

    • Afternoon: AGX AI BASE BRZE CXM CHPT CHWY GEF GME OXM SPWH SMTC VEEV VRNT


  • Thursday (Dec 7)

    • Morning: CIEN DG GMS

    • Afternoon: AVGO COO CURV DOCU GWRE HPC LULU SMAR SWBI MTN


  • Friday (Dec 8)

    • Morning: MOMO


Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Chinese officials have postponed this year's third plenum, making for the first delay to this meeting in more than thirty years. Chinese health officials are advising against large gatherings amid ongoing reports about cases of acute respiratory disease. Meanwhile, five U.S. Republican Senators have urged the president to implement a ban on travel to China. New Zealand is expected to announce tax cuts during the economic and fiscal update scheduled for December 20.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's November Monetary Base 9.1% yr/yr (expected 8.9%; last 9.5%)

    • Australia's November MI Inflation Gauge 0.3% m/m (last -0.1%) and November job ads -4.6% m/m (last -3.4%). Q3 Business Inventories 1.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.6%; last -1.3%) and Q3 Company Gross Operating Profits -1.3% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last -12.1%). October Home Loans 5.6% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -0.1%) and October Retail Sales -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.9%)

    • New Zealand's Q3 Terms of Trade Index -0.6% qtr/qtr (expected -2.1%; last 0.3%)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.6%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.1%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%

  • India's Sensex: +2.1%

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.4%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: -0.2% to 146.53

  • USD/CNH: +0.3% to 7.1404

  • USD/INR: +0.1% to 83.33

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.3%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. European Central Bank policymakers Nagel and De Guindos repeated that it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Greece regained its investment grade rating after Fitch upgraded the country's rating to BBB- from BB+ with a Stable outlook. Separately, Fitch affirmed France's AA rating with a Negative outlook.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence -16.8 (expected -15.0; last -18.6)

    • Germany's October trade surplus EUR17.8 bln (expected surplus of EUR17.1 bln; last surplus of EUR16.7 bln). October Imports -1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -1.9%) and Exports -0.2% m/m (expected 1.1%; last -2.5%)

    • Spain's November Unemployment Change -24,600 (expected 28,100; last 36,900)

    • Swiss November CPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.7%)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1%

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: -0.3%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: +0.2%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.0868

  • GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.2681

  • USD/CHF: +0.5% to 0.8727

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