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04/07/22 Briefing




The worst US stock selloff in half a century may not be over, some investors say, including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley. Most MLIV Pulse survey respondents think earnings forecasts will be slashed. Treasury holders are starting to bet a worsening economy will deliver some relief. Any recession may be long but modest, economists say, albeit not as bad as the GFC or the '80s. EMs are now ready for a US recession, and may even be able to lure investors.

European and Asian stocks nudged higher but US futures retreated as slowing economic growth and sticky inflation continued to cast a shadow across markets. US stock and bond markets are shut for the Independence Day break. Oil fluctuated while bitcoin fell to about $19,000.

Germany's energy crunch: Olaf Scholz said Germany is in talks on aid for Uniper - the country's top buyer of Russian gas - and signaled bailout tools developed during the pandemic are on the table again. Economy Minister Robert Habeck urged Germans to prepare for deeper cuts in Russian gas supply and flagged the risk of a cascade of utility failures. Germany's top union official said there's danger of a permanent collapse of entire industries and warned of social and labor unrest.

Boris Johnson is under pressure to explain what he knew and when after a string of allegations surfaced over the weekend about the past sexual behavior of Chris Pincher. There are growing calls for Johnson to spell out why he named Pincher as deputy chief whip in February, despite the MP quitting a similar role in 2017 amid claims he made unwanted sexual advances to a former Olympic rower.

Credit Suisse's new clients face a backlog of up to 8 months to open accounts as the bank stepped up checks following a string of scandals, the FT reported. A £15 billion takeover bid of UK Power Networks by a group led by KKR and Macquarie collapsed because the asking price was too high, the FT reported.

Tesla delivered 254,695 cars worldwide in the second quarter, missing estimates and ending a two-year streak of gains. The EV maker said it faces supply challenges and factory shutdowns. Shimao didn't pay a $1 billion dollar note that matured Sunday. The Chinese developer is in talks with creditors and sold about 20 projects to raise funds. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings took a record $3.4 billion hit.

War: Ukraine pulled its troops from Lysychansk, ceding control of a key city in the Luhansk region to Russia. Vladimir Putin will be able to continue with the war for a "really a long time," Germany's Scholz said. The US's John Kirby said Putin has shown no indication he's interested in negotiated talks to end the conflict. Kyiv will put forward a blueprint this week for rebuilding the country that may mobilize hundreds of billions of euros.

A gunman opened fire inside a busy shopping mall in Copenhagen yesterday, killing three people and critically wounding three others, the AP reported. A 22-year-old Danish man was arrested after the shooting, police said, adding there was no indication that anyone else was involved in the attack.

London's premium districts may see a slowdown in rental growth in the second half, with the cost of living crisis curbing the amount tenants are able to pay, Savills said. Households are already experiencing the longest run of declines to their salaries since the 1950s and energy bills are set to rise in autumn, taking the steam out of the property market. Rental prices in prime London surged 13.5% in June from a year earlier.

Economic Outlook

The ECB is looking at ways to prevent banks reaping windfall profits from its subsidized lending program during the pandemic, the FT reported. More than ?2.2 trillion of subsidized loans were given to banks during the Covid crisis, and with rates set to hike, lenders could get extra earnings worth up to ?24 billion. It would be politically unacceptable for the ECB to provide banks with a taxpayer-backed profit while it's raising borrowing costs for households and businesses.

Overview

FTSE 100 - 7,233.05 (0.9399%) DJ - 31,097.26 (1.0457%) S&P500 - 3,825.33 (1.0554%) Nasdaq - 11,127.84 (0.8986%) EStoxx50 - 3,451.44 (0.1206%) HSI - 21,809.17 (-0.2264%) Nikkei - 26,153.81 (0.8413%)

Currencies

GBPUSD - 1.2115 (0.1406%) GBPEUR - 1.1623 (-0.1635%) EURUSD - 1.0423 (0.0672%) EURCHF - 1.0002 (0.132%) USDCAD - 1.2864 (0.2643%) EURAUD - 1.5200 (0.5996%) EURSEK - 10.7661 (0.0204%) EURNOK - 10.3313 (0.6652%)

Commodities

GOLD - 1,808.15 (-0.186%) SILVER - 19.8508 (-0.1062%) COPPER - 356.60 (-1.1376%) PALLADIUM - 1,944.93 (-0.5639%) CRUDE - 108.43 (0.0184%) BRENT - 111.67 (0.0806%)

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The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures