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03/06/22 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 151 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 180 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

Concerns about economic conditions are behind the weakness seen this morning in the futures market.

A declaration from RH, Inc. (RH) that it has seen a softening in demand, weaker-than-expected retail sales out of Germany, and higher-than-expected inflation out of South Korea are among the focal points, but the main focal point is Elon Musk's remark that he has a "super bad feeling" about the economy. Musk indicated that Tesla (TSLA) needs to cut about 10% of its staff.

That remark follows on the heels of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon saying earlier in the week that he thinks an "economic hurricane" is coming and it also comes in front of today's release of the Employment Situation Report for May (8:30 a.m. ET) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May (10:00 a.m. ET).

The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.92%. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 101.87. WTI crude futures are down 0.3% to $116.48/bbl.

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 735.45, -39.55, -5.1%): Elon Musk says he has "super bad feeling" about economy, that Tesla needs to cut about 10% of jobs

  • Apple (AAPL 148.12, -3.09, -2.0%): European Commission has proposed plan to mandate a universal charging adapter for smartphones using standard USB-C cable

  • lululemon (LULU 303.33, +0.75, +0.3%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Okta (OKTA 108.35, +14.67, +15.7%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • RH, Inc. (RH 289.00, -12.94, -4.3%): beats by $2.45, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus, has experienced a softening in demand which began at time of Russian invasion Ukraine; also increased share repurchase authorization by $2.0 bln

  • Travelers (TRV 175.71, -2.35, -1.3%): Goldman Sachs downgrades to Sell from Neutral on margin concerns

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for holidays. Japan's Nikkei +1.3%; India's Sensex -0.1%; South Korea's Kospi +0.4%; and Australia's All Ordinaries +1.0%.

    • In economic data:

      • Japan's May Services PMI 52.6 (expected 51.7; last 50.7)

      • South Korea's May CPI 5.4% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 4.8%)

      • India's May Services PMI 58.9 (expected 57.5; last 57.9)

      • Australia's April Home Loans -7.3% m/m (expected -1.0%; last 0.9%). May Services PMI 53.2 (last 56.1) and May AIG Construction Index 50.4 (last 55.9)


  • In news:

    • South Korea's May CPI increased at its fastest pace since 2008, prompting speculation about more aggressive action from the Bank of Korea.

    • The U.S. deputy trade representative said that the Biden administration is looking for a strategic realignment with China.

    • North Korea is reportedly preparing for a nuclear test.

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase its cash rate by 25 bps on Tuesday.



  • Major European indices trade in mixed fashion while the U.K.'s FTSE remains closed. STOXX Europe 600 +0.1%; Germany's DAX +0.1%; France's CAC 40 unchanged; Italy's FTSE MIB -0.7%; and Spain's IBEX 35 -0.1%.

    • In economic data:

      • Eurozone's April Retail Sales -1.3% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 3.9% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 1.6%). May Services PMI 56.1 (expected 56.3; last 56.3)

      • Germany's April trade surplus EUR3.50 bln (expected surplus of EUR1.60 bln; last surplus of EUR1.90 bln). April Imports 3.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 3.2%) and Exports 4.4% m/m (expected 1.5%; last -3.0%). May Services PMI 55.0 (expected 56.3; last 56.3)

      • France's April Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.4%). May Services PMI 58.3 (expected 58.4; last 58.4)

      • Italy's May Services PMI 53.7 (expected 54.5; last 55.7)

      • Spain's May Services PMI 56.5 (expected 56.0; last 57.1)


  • In news:

    • The European Commission formalized the sixth package of sanctions against Russia that was announced earlier this week.

    • Eurozone's Services PMI remained in expansionary territory for the 14th month in a row.

    • Turkey and the EU are reportedly in discussions about sending gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan through the Southern Gas Corridor.



U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -32 @ 4,144

  • DJIA Futures: -192 @ 33,057

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -151 @ 12,741

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE CLOSED, CAC UNCH

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite CLOSED

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil -0.42 @ 116.45

  • Nat Gas +0.049 @ 8.534

  • Gold -3.35 @ 1868.05

  • Silver +0.132 @ 22.407

  • Copper -0.0342 @ 4.5183

U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings:

    • Alaska Air (ALK) updates its Q2 outlook; raises Q2 revenue guidance to +12-14% vs 2019 levels

    • American Airlines (AAL) raises Q2 revs guidance, driven by continued strength in the demand and pricing environment

    • Asana (ASAN) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23revs above consensus

    • BRP Inc. (DOOO) beats by CAD0.44, misses on revs; raises FY23EPS in-line, revs in-line

    • Calavo Growers (CVGW) beats by $0.11, beats on revs

    • Cigna (CI) reaffirms FY22guidance ahead of investor day

    • Cooper (COO) misses by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY22EPS below consensus, revs in-line

    • Costco (COST) reports May adjusted comparable sales growth of +11.8%

    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

    • HashiCorp (HCP) reports Q1 loss per share of ($0.17) vs. ($0.21) in year-ago period; revenue increased 51% yr/yr to $100.9 mln; RPO was $433.9 mln at the end of quarter

    • JOANN Inc. (JOAN) misses by $0.30, misses on revs, comps of -12.9% as supply chain remains challenged

    • lululemon athletica (LULU) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

    • NuScale Power (SMR) reaffirms financial outlook

    • Okta (OKTA) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

    • PagerDuty (PD) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23EPS in-line, revs above consensus

    • Phreesia (PHR) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23revs guidance; maintains annualized revenue target of $500 mln to be achieved during a quarter of FY25

    • Quanex (NX) beats by $0.37, beats on revs; guides FY22revs above consensus

    • RH (RH) beats by $2.45, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY23revs below consensus, has experienced a softening in demand which began at time of Russian invasion Ukraine; also increased share repurchase authorization by $2.0 bln

    • Samsara (IOT) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

    • StoneCo (STNE) beats by BRL 0.12, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus

    • SunOpta (STKL) reaffirms FY22and FY23guidance; provides FY25outlook at Investor Day

    • The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY22EPS in-line, revenue above consensus

    • Zumiez (ZUMZ) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus


  • General News:

    • Some neighborhoods of Shanghai returned to lockdown as new COVID-19 cases were detected, according to CNN

    • Russia now occupies 20% of Ukraine, according to the New York Times

    • EU adopts sixth package of sanctions against Russia

    • President Biden gives remarks on guns and recent shootings; calls for assault weapons ban, but that has no chance of passing Congress

    • Senate Democrats are preparing to drop demands for assault weapons ban, raising age to 21 for firearm purchases, and universal background checks. Bipartisan lawmakers are discussing red flag laws and support for mental health, but supporters fear even those talks could collapse, according to CNN

    • Supreme Court will likely strike down some New York gun restrictions this month, according to Reuters

    • New York raises age to purchase and own semi-automatic weapons to 21, but legal challenges are expected as prior court rulings declared such laws unconstitutional, according to ABC News

    • 20% of US states are 90% out of baby formula, according to Bloomberg

    • ALX Oncology (ALXO) announces evorpacept clinical program updates

    • American Eagle (AEO) announces a series of actions to strengthen capital structure

    • Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) receives PDUFA date extension for AMX0035; scheduled for September 29

    • ANI Pharma (ANIP) announces consolidation of manufacturing network

    • Apple (AAPL): Rumor it will launch a web search engine similar to Google's (GOOG), according to Apple Insider

    • Aravive (ARAV) announced the appointment of Rudy Howard as Chief Financial Officer, effective today

    • Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) presented data demonstrating the efficacy of LUPKYNIS for the treatment of people with lupus nephritis

    • Aurora Cannabis (ACB) repurchases aggregate $20 mln in principal convertible senior notes

    • Axon (AXON) promotes Joshua Isner to COO, effective immediately

    • Baxter (BAX) issues urgent medical device correction for the Volara System, according to FDA website

    • Biogen (BIIB): New 12-Month Tofersen Data Presented at ENCALS Meeting Show Clinically Meaningful Benefit in People With SOD1-ALS

    • Blackrock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink expects high inflation for several years, according to Bloomberg

    • CenterPoint (CNP) announced that its green hydrogen project in Minneapolis is operational

    • Chegg (CHGG) increases securities repurchase program by $1 bln

    • ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT) receives certification for the Medical Device Single Audit Program

    • Coinbase (COIN) will extend its hiring pause for the foreseeable future and rescind a number of accepted offers

    • El Pollo Loco (LOCO) appoints Ira Fils as CFO, effective June 27

    • Enthusiast Gaming Holdings (EGLX) announces settlement of deferred payments

    • FARO Technologies (FARO) announces election of Yuval Wasserman as Chairman, effective May 26

    • Global Payments (GPN) appoints Josh J. Whipple to succeed Paul M. Todd as CFO, effective July 1

    • Greenidge Generation (GREE) Provides Statement Regarding New York Legislation Limiting Certain Proof of Work Cryptocurrency Datacenters

    • Immunocore (IMCR) announces clinical trial collaboration with Sanofi to evaluate Sanofi's (SNY) product candidate SAR444245, non-alpha IL-2, in combination with KIMMTRAK in patients with metastatic cutaneous melanoma

    • Innate Pharma (IPHA) Announces IPH5201 Phase 2 Study in Lung Cancer

    • Intercept Pharma (ICPT) announces new clinical trial and real-world outcomes data for Ocaliva in PBC; plans to include these data in an evidence package that will be submitted to U.S. FDA in 2H 2022

    • Kohl's (KSS) auction delayed indefinitely as several suitors bowed out, according to NY Post

    • Kyndryl (KD) disclosed BMC Software and International Business Machines (IBM) litigation update

    • Laboratory Corp (LH) announces new sponsored testing program for lung cancer

    • MarketAxess (MKTX) reports monthly volume stats; total trading average daily volume was up 45%

    • Microsoft (MSFT) will not resist union efforts by employees, according to Reuters

    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Owl Cyber Defense awarded Missile Defense Agency contract with ceiling value of $249 mln

    • Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) achieves primary objectives of ONWARDS 1 and 6 trials with once-weekly insulin icodec demonstrating superior reduction in HbA1c vs insulin glargine U100 in ONWARDS 1

    • OptiNose (OPTN) announces CFO Keith Goldan will be leaving on June 10, 2022

    • Petrobras (PBR): Brazil is getting closer to privatization of Petrobras, according to Reuters

    • Riot Blockchain (RIOT) provides production and operations update for May 2022

    • Tenaris (TS) resolves SEC investigation into legacy issue in Brazil

    • Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk tweets "Tesla AI Day pushed to Sept 30, as we may have an Optimus prototype working by then"

    • Tesla (TSLA) aiming to eliminate 10% of jobs as CEO Elon Musk has a "super bad feeling" about the US economy, according to Reuters

    • TG Therapeutics (TGTX) Announces Presentation of Exploratory Analyses from the ULTIMATE I & II Phase 3 Trials of Ublituximab in Multiple Sclerosis at the 2022 Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers Annual Meeting


  • M&A:

    • Biotech Acquisition Company (BIOT) and Blade Therapeutics postpone Extraordinary Meeting of Shareholders to approve proposed business combination

    • Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) announces the purchase of Fabre Engineering

    • CRH Plc. (CRH) agrees $1.9 bln acquisition of Barrette Outdoor Living

    • JetBlue (JBLU) Comments on Frontier-Spirit Announcement

    • Kohl's (KSS) received bids from Sycamore Partners Franchise Group (FRG), according to the Wall Street Journal

    • Pinterest (PINS) agrees to acquire THE YES; terms not disclosed

    • Spirit Airlines (SAVE) and Frontier Airlines (ULCC) amend merger agreement; reverse termination fee of $250 million offers greater stockholder protections

    • Turning Point Therapeutics (TPTX): Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) will acquire Turning Point Therapeutics for $76.00 per share; expected to be accretive to Non-GAAP earnings per share beginning in 2025

    • Worthington (WOR) announces acquisition of Level5 Tools for approx. $55 mln


  • Syndicate:

    • American Tower (AMT) prices offering of 8.35 mln shares of common stock at $256.00 per share

    • Desktop Metal (DM) files for 112,202 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

    • KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) prices offering of 7.0 mln shares of common stock

    • Meta Materials (MMAT) files for 9,677,419 share common stock offering by selling shareholders


  • IPOs:

    • Priced to Trade:

      • No IPOs expected.



Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • OKTA +17.7%, STNE +17%, IPHA +8%, NAPA +7.1%, NX +6.8%, KSS +6.6%, BIOT +6.3%, CHGG +5.9%, PHR +5.6%, LOCO +4.9%, DOOO +3.5%, PD +3%, GREE +2.6%, WOR +1.8%, CLPT +1.6%, LULU +1.5%, ALK +1%, CVGW +0.7%, IOT +0.6%


  • Gapping down:

    • JOAN -19.2%, ZUMZ -7.9%, ASAN -5%, KREF -4.9%, CRWD -4.6%, COO -3.2%, FARO -2.6%, COIN -2.5%, AMT -1.7%, TS -1.6%, MMAT -1.1%, RIOT -1%, SAVE-0.6%, RH -0.6%, DM -0.5%


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Ciena (CIEN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt raised to $67

    • Ecolab (ECL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $195

    • Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $13

    • Martin Marietta (MLM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $410

    • Portland Gen Elec (POR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $52

    • Regions Fincl (RF) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $26

    • South State (SSB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $100

    • Voya Financial (VOYA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $80


  • Downgrades:

    • Aon (AON) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $250

    • BankUnited (BKU) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $51

    • First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney

    • Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $44

    • Huntington Banc (HBAN) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $15

    • JOANN Inc. (JOAN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $8

    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $145

    • Micron (MU) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $70

    • Moody's (MCO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $285

    • OP Bancorp (OPBK) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $15

    • Travelers (TRV) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $170

    • Westlake Corporation (WLK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $135


  • Others:

    • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $7.50

    • Allogene (ALLO) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $11

    • CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCCS) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $13

    • Euronet (EEFT) placed on Positive Catalyst Watch at Citigroup; target raised to $170

    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $50

    • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $28

    • Guardant Health (GH) initiated with a Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $65

    • Invitae (NVTA) initiated with an Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $2.50

    • Loyalty Ventures (LYLT) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $16

    • NeoGenomics (NEO) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $13

    • ObsEva (OBSV) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $6

    • Otonomo Technologies (OTMO) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $1.50

    • Snowflake (SNOW) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $184

    • Starry (STRY) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $10

    • Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $29


Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

    • 08:30 ET: Nonfarm Payrolls for May (Briefing.comConsensus 325K; Prior 428K)

    • 08:30 ET: Nonfarm Private Payrolls for May (Briefing.comConsensus 301K; Prior 406K)

    • 08:30 ET: Avg. Hourly Earnings for May (Briefing.comConsensus 0.4%; Prior 0.3%)

    • 08:30 ET: Unemployment Rate for May (Briefing.comConsensus 3.5%; Prior 3.6%)

    • 08:30 ET: Average Workweek for May (Briefing.comConsensus 34.6; Prior 34.6)

    • 09:45 ET: IHS Markit Services PMI - Final for May (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 53.5)

    • 10:00 ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May (Briefing.comConsensus 56.6%; Prior 57.1%)


  • Earnings:

    • Tuesday (May 31)

      • Morning: BEKE

      • Afternoon: AMBA APPS HPQ CRM SPWH VSCO


  • Wednesday (Jun 1)

    • Morning: CPRI CONN DCI WB

    • Afternoon: AI CHWY CRDO DSGX ESTC GME HPE MDB NCNO NTAP PSTG PVH SMTC S PATH VEEV


  • Thursday (Jun 2)

    • Morning: CAE CIEN DBI HRL SCWX SPTN TTC

    • Afternoon: ASAN CVGW COO CRWD JOAN LULU OKTA PD PHR RH ZUMZ



Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai Composite CLOSED

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for holidays. South Korea's May CPI increased at its fastest pace since 2008, prompting speculation about more aggressive action from the Bank of Korea. The U.S. deputy trade representative said that the Biden administration is looking for a strategic realignment with China. North Korea is reportedly preparing for a nuclear test. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase its cash rate by 25 bps on Tuesday.

  • In economic data:

    • Japan's May Services PMI 52.6 (expected 51.7; last 50.7)

    • South Korea's May CPI 5.4% yr/yr (expected 5.1%; last 4.8%)

    • India's May Services PMI 58.9 (expected 57.5; last 57.9)

    • Australia's April Home Loans -7.3% m/m (expected -1.0%; last 0.9%). May Services PMI 53.2 (last 56.1) and May AIG Construction Index 50.4 (last 55.9)


---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: +1.3% (+3.7% for the week)

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED (+1.9% for the week)

  • China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED (+2.1% for the week)

  • India's Sensex: -0.1% (+1.6% for the week)

  • South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% (+1.2% for the week)

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.0% (+0.8% for the week)

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.2% to 130.17

  • USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.6342

  • USD/INR: +0.3% to 77.61

Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE CLOSED, CAC UNCH

Major European indices trade in mixed fashion while the U.K.'s FTSE remains closed. The European Commission formalized the sixth package of sanctions against Russia that was announced earlier this week. Eurozone's Services PMI remained in expansionary territory for the 14th month in a row. Turkey and the EU are reportedly in discussions about sending gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan through the Southern Gas Corridor.

  • In economic data:

    • Eurozone's April Retail Sales -1.3% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); 3.9% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 1.6%). May Services PMI 56.1 (expected 56.3; last 56.3)

    • Germany's April trade surplus EUR3.50 bln (expected surplus of EUR1.60 bln; last surplus of EUR1.90 bln). April Imports 3.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 3.2%) and Exports 4.4% m/m (expected 1.5%; last -3.0%). May Services PMI 55.0 (expected 56.3; last 56.3)

    • France's April Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.4%). May Services PMI 58.3 (expected 58.4; last 58.4)

    • Italy's May Services PMI 53.7 (expected 54.5; last 55.7)

    • Spain's May Services PMI 56.5 (expected 56.0; last 57.1)


---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.1% (-0.5% week-to-date)

  • Germany's DAX: +0.1% (+0.3% week-to-date)

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED (-0.7% week-to-date)

  • France's CAC 40: UNCH (-0.3% week-to-date)

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.7% (-1.5% week-to-date)

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1% (-2.2% week-to-date)

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0744

  • GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2569

  • USD/CHF: +0.2% to 0.9588

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